I agree that none of us can predict what will happen. If I had to bet, though, I would wager that Sony will take the lead initially, but Microsoft will edge ahead in the long run. Price will be the biggest advantage for Sony in the early going. I don't think there's much question about that. I just think that over the long haul the Xbox One has the better vision and has more room for growth.
As much as Sony fans want to joke about Kinect, what they are missing is that there appears to be a significant difference between the new Kinect and the old one. Even if you hate motion controls (and I'm not sold on them myself), there are other uses for Kinect that could become game-changers. One of the easiest to implement that would have the biggest impact is head tracking. I use a TrackIR 5 on my PC and it completely transforms any FPS, flight sim, or racing game. Once you have the ability to look around at will in the virtual world, there is no going back. The new Kinect should have the accuracy to do this without all of the head gear required by TrackIR. The only way Sony could match this with its much simpler camera would be to require head gear for tracking reference.
And that's just one of many uses aside from the dreaded motion control that Kinect will be essential for. Sony has no answer for that because they, again, chose to just build a box rather than push technology.
Explain this to me: When Microsoft announced their original policies, people like you criticized them. When they rescinded most of those policies you....criticized them again. What is wrong with you people?
Oh puleeeeeze.... Both companies have made good moves and, arguably, bad moves. However, I haven't seen Sony exhibit some superior marketing genius, as you suggest.
Microsoft has laid out a very ambitious vision. While I know that some of it is almost certainly exaggerated (cloud processing?), no one can claim that they haven't taken risks and tried to expand the concept of what a console is and does. Some valid criticisms aside, they have at least tried to create a true next-gen system.
But Sony? All I've seen them do is essentially just build a more powerful PS3 and then spend the bulk of their time criticizing and sniping at the Xbox One. Rather than telling us why their system is so much better, they are simply trying to win by default by casting themselves as the anti-Microsoft.
It's very similar to a presidential candidate who rather than telling us what he is for simply spends his time telling us why he is against what the other guy stands for, and therefore should be elected. Those candidates almost never win because people ultimately want to vote FOR someone, not simply AGAINST someone else. They want to know that their candidate has a VISION.
I honestly don't know what Sony's vision for the PS4 is, other than to just sell a more powerful version of the last generation. They appear to be selling a box, while Microsoft is selling a complete user experience.
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