Will the PS4 surpass the Wii's lifetime sales?

No, I honestly don't think so. The Wii sold over 100 million, and PS4 is only at 70. And that's after 4 years+. So, it would need another two years of high sales and no PS5 to release. I don't think that'll happen.

@emgesp: I also said that I think sales will naturally dwindle as most people who want one will probably already have one. I don’t think that the PS4 has quite the same casual market as the Wii did. The Xbox One X isn’t going to stay at $500 either for the next four years and the Xbox One will also see competitive price cuts as well. I’m sure the Switch will see price drops too. The PS4 isn’t going to be selling in a vacuum.

I am using my brain, I just have a different opinion then you.

Yeah probably. It's going very strong. It may even exceed PS1.

Good point. Thanks for the perspective.

You do realize the PS4 is tracking PS2 level sales currently right? It took the PS3 two extra years to reach 70+ million sold. The PS1, PS2 and PS3 still sold millions of units while their successors were released.

You underestimate the tens of millions who buy consoles at a $199.99 - $249.99 price point.

Just curious how many units do you think will sell in 2018?

@emgesp: Perhaps so. Time will tell.

"At its current pace it's poised to outsell the Wii by 2021."

I actually think it can do that much earlier, like the end of 2019 or mid 2020. There's still Spider-Man, God of War, Last of Us 2, Cyberpunk 2077, Red Dead Redemption 2 and GTA 6. I know GTA 6 has never been formally announced but I have a hard time believing Rockstar would end this generation without a single GTA game (not talking about cross-gen remaster like GTA V)

You sure about that? Somehow I get the feeling that a console that has, so far, sold like wildfire has met demand in less than a year.

By the way, the 3DS has apparently sold over 200 million units since it's release in 2011.

I mean that the supply is able to meet the demand now.

Also, you're joking with that 3DS part, right? If not, the number there are commutative. It has shipped 68.98 million units total from launch up to September 30th, 2017.

Use this page to find total shipment figures for Nintendo hardware.

Why wouldn’t it?. Both Ps1 and Ps2 sold better than the wii. As bad as PS3 started they are now not that far from the wii. Also some countries are still selling PS3.

It will in 2019. By end of 2018 it will have sold as good or better than the PS3/360.

Well at least you'll get this prediction right.

What prediction have I got wrong in the past?

Of course, it's not THAT much further away

@techhog89: The site you linked is for Nintendo Japan, not world wide. The wiki I linked says 70.92 million lifetime sales in Japan, so it's not far away from what Nintendo themselves say.

No, it's worldwide. You think that Wii sold 101 million units in Japan alone? And that 3DS kept selling more and more year after year? Use some common sense, man. I can't tell if I'm being trolled or not.

Maybe this will make it more clear to you? https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2017/171030e.pdf

Nothing that I know of yet, but your 30-35 million lifetime prediction for Switch is looking less and less likely by the day, and will look like total insanity if Nintendo even comes close to their forecast for this year. Shipping 15-17 million units in 13 months (and it's save to say that they were over 10 million before December and will likely sell/ship another 2.5+ million worldwide this month) at a high price without Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Smash, or 2D Mario, but then later only selling an additional 13-20 million over the following 4 years ? I'm sure you'll stick to it for now because of your certainty that mobile will kill it, but a year from now you'll be forced to rethink it. Any prediction for Switch less than 45 million isn't based on the reality of the current situation. It'll likely cross the 30 million mark within a few months of PS4 passing Wii.

And before you say that 2.5 million isn't happening for sure this month, I'll let you know that, in addition to the typical holiday boost, it just launched in South Korea and Taiwan on the first of the month.

@techhog89: PS4 outsold Switch in the month of November. A 4 yr old console without a big exclusive for the Holidays beat the new Switch that just got a new 3D Mario game.

I'm not saying Switch can't hit 40 - 45 million units, but I'm still sticking with my 35 million prediction. I'm also 100% confident it will not reach 3DS sales.

A 4-year-old super popular console being sold for $199, which also beat the brand new "most power console ever"*. November is the month when people buy based on deals, and PS4 had the best deal. Everyone with a lick of common sense expected it to win. Granted, it won by a lot more than expected, but Switch still likely managed over 700k in November in the US alone. That's not an amazing number, but it's not terrible either. If PS4 beats Switch 2:1 in December I'll say that you have a leg to stand on; until then, predicting that Switch will drop to an average of 4-5 million per year worldwide after this year is ridiculous and baseless. It'll pass 4 million in Japan alone next year.

Also, it's still ahead of 3DS launch-aligned in all regions except Japan, and it's only behind in Japan due to a lack of stock. Even the 3DS price drop didn't change anything. A $170 3DS that coould at least play DS games with backwards compatibility had lower demand than a $300 Switch with no BC or even VC. What do you think will happen once Switch gets a price cut? Thinking "well mobile exists so it won't sell" is just silly when it's already selling quite well. Thinking that it's already peaked before a price cut and Pokemon is even more silly.

I think you're still just salty that Nintendo didn't go third-party and put Zelda on PS4.

Edit: Okay, I was wrong, Switch did sell a little worse than 3DS did in its first November in the US. It's still about 800k ahead of 3DS launch-aligned in the US though.

It was 200$ less and probably bundled with games

@MonsieurX: Still a 4 yr old console and still didn't have a huge 1st party title released during the Holidays. Switch has been selling very well and you'd think a brand new 3D Mario would push it to outsell the PS4 for the month of November even at a more premium price.

@techhog89: I'm not a huge Zelda fan, so not salty that Zelda is exclusive to Switch. I really like Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and hopefully will get a chance to try out Odyssey soon.

PS4 allegedly sold over 1.5 million. Even if the Switch had sold out, there's no way they would have had that much stock.

@techhog89: Well, Nintendo needs to increase their production to meet demand.

The Wii was being sold at 99 for the last couple of years... wasnt the low price a factor for the Wiis success?

ROFL could you say that without laughing

3 years old

https://www.polygon.com/2017/12/7/16746222/ps4-sales-70-million-units

If Sony shipped 20 mill alone in 2016 and 2017 looks to be the same, it´s a good bet that they in the next 3 years will sell at least 30mill more, so yes i do think they will reach the 100m mark, especially with their VR catching on and the pro

Outside of Japan, they are meeting demand now mostly (and stop with this stupid idea that you can just push a button and make as many units as you want). PS4 demand in November was definitely higher than Switch demand. He're the issue though (which I'm sure you'll ignore since you only listen to context which fits your narrative): Sony just announced that 70.6 million PS4s have been sold worldwide. Almost exactly a year before that, they announced that 50 million had been sold. In other words, they sold 20.6 million in that 12-month period. That's makes it the most successful year for PS4. Not the launch year, but this year. My point being that consoles don't necessarily sell less as they get older. PlayStation consoles especially have never peaked in their launch year. PS4's market isn't saturated at all. All that we can really get with from this this is that Switch isn't eating into PS4's market at all, and that November is the most price-sensitive month of the year. Switch's sales do look a bit low for November if the rumors are about accurate, but dropping to the level you expect would require much, much worse numbers than that. Like, half that.

@emgesp: I'm gonna up my projection on the Switch because I had NO idea how much of a fever it would cause in Japan. I'll guesstimate it to match 3DS numbers now

PS4 not for casual or soccer moms and also Xbox one has walking Sims

No its 4. PS4 came out in 2013 not 2014.

@KBFloYd: Well the PS4 is old enough that it can be priced there without loss and Sony has two models, so it's very smart to do this, hitting two ranges of gamer based on how important graphics are to them.

And since the business is about selling software and services, it makes sense.

It's great for the gamer, because the original PS4's graphical capabilities were good enough in the first place. So no one's missing out. Where as there's quite a huge gulf between the Xbone and XXbone in terms of performance.

It will but when?

@Seabas989: 2019 for sure.