Lest we forget that the GC had a great launch as well.

I know for many people its easy to hype up early Switch sales, but a reminder is in order that early success doesn't guarantee long term success. Keep in mind that while GC shipped during the holiday season it didn't launch with a huge killer app, so don't talk about how amazing the Switch sold considering it shipped in March without taking into consideration the fact that it also launched with a brand new Zelda game.

https://www.cnet.com/news/nintendo-reports-record-gamecube-launch/

Man, the salt is amazing. Please, never stop.

"Guys, please listen to me! The Switch will fail! Trust me, I've been a long time Nintendo fan!!"

You are really going to blow off this fact? Its not salt. GC sold 500K units in a week. That was fantastic in 2001, especially considering it didn't launch with either a Mario or Zelda game.

If it fails to meet expectations or grasp third party it will, it's not worth talking about.

Okay, Gamecube sold great at launch. What's your point? Wii sold great too at launch. Why should I be willing to treat one as more admissible than the other?

I didn't say it will fail. Stop putting words in my mouth. People are acting like this is the 2nd coming of the Wii.

35 million units is my current estimate and I think its a fair one.

So you are not even going to bother to click on that link? Ever heard of history repeats itself?

Because people automatically think its going to be this huge long term success. My point is just to remind people it isn't a guarantee. Using GC is a perfect example of this and to me the GC was a better console than the Wii U was by a large margin yet still flopped.

Once again, emg...

Dude, you have proven that you will go to whatever crazy lengths you can fathom just to rain on the happiness of Switch owners because the device does not fit your personal ideal of a video game device. The day you get past this is the day you will be able to live a happier life.

How was presenting past events raining on people's parade? People still enjoyed the Wii U even when I said it was going to flop back in 2013.

I'm just realistic about things. I own a PS4 Pro and I know its not selling like hotcakes.

Neither failure nor success in the long term is a guarantee, so it is literally a crapshoot predicting or even discussing one or the other.

What we have right now is the fact that the Switch is a success now.That is something we can discuss. That is what we do discuss. Punctuating that discussion with a 'But it might not be successful in the long run' is meaningless, because there is literally no way to know. The Switch is uncharted territory, it is selling defying expectation or logic, and it may or may not continue to do so. Trying to puncture enthusiasm for the system by saying 'just you wait, it won't last' does nothing but make you seem like a salty hater, because, as stated already, there are no grounds for predicting long term failure or success.

Answer this: why do you continually try to stem the tide of the hype? What do you personally gain from pointing out the possibility that the Switch may not be successful, all the while admitting that the possibility that it is successful is just as viable?

What do you, as emgesp gain from this exercise?

@emgesp: Even if Switch sold 20 million units, is that a failure? What is the number that measures success, enlighten all of us.

I'm not a proponent of this system, I don't even like it, but I'm getting really tired of this doomsday stuff and not even just for Nintendo, in general.

Not just Switch owners, modern Nintendo fans PERIOD!

I just think people need to be more realistic and keep their expectations in check. Its easy to see early sales and get overly confident about how well the Switch will do.

Look I'm not saying it couldn't sell more than my 35 million estimate, but its gonna need something more than the usual affair to achieve that. Pokemon is whats going to get Switch sales to my 35 million estimate, but what other games can push it further?

His inability to be happy with the product on market compels him to downplay the happiness others experience at this very moment. How can I be happy with a device he is unhappy with? It's INCONCEIVABLE!!

GC sold 21 million and Nintendo considered that a huge disappointment. A console only selling 20 million units in the modern era is pretty awful.

Who knows? I didn't expect Zelda to be a system seller on this magnitude- I had been led to believe, and in all fairness, I thought myself, that it was a series with limited appeal to the mainstream. And yet here we have a system outselling the Wii currently, but where the Wii had Wii Sports pushing it, Switch is selling on the back of the most 'hardcore', least 'casual friendly' game there is- it defies logic. So who the hell knows what might push the Switch? I didn't expect Zelda to be such a system seller. For all I know, Mario, Splatoon, Xenoblade, Pokemon, Smash, Kart, all do it. For all I know, none of them do it, and it is something entirely new that comes out of the left field, like Monster Hunter for PSP was.

Your prediction is 35 million LTD for the console- that's great. It's no more or less valid than any other- the question is, why keep coming back to it, when long term success or failure is something literally no one other than people like iandizion (and do you want to be on their level?) are discussing?

GC was sold at a loss, while the Switch makes over $20 of profit per system, without factoring in software and accessories revenues.

Who did I say couldn't be happy with their purchase? I never told anyone that they shouldn't be happy. I've only said what I think about the system.

Even if they made a small profit 21 million units is still awful when at the time they had been in the console business for 20+ yrs. The OG Xbox outsold it which really made it look even worse.

Okay. And yet none of this is relevant to anything, not even to the thread at hand.

I don't see how anyone can think the switch can succeed. After many months of admitting that the Wii U tablet was one of the main reasons the Wi U failed, they release another tablet based system.

I expect the Switch will ultimately do marginally better than the Wii U. Sony has this gen locked. No one else is going to sell a ton of systems. I doubt Microsoft will even sell what it sold last gen with the 360.

How about you answer my earlier question: what do you gain from consistently engaging in a guessing game other than the possible, eventual personal satisfaction of "I was right all along"?

... or did I answer my own question?

My prediction of 35 million units sold isn't great considering the Switch is both the Wii U and 3DS successor. That would be a huge drop of install base when you combine the install base of the Wii U and 3DS (83 Million?). If you're Nintendo I'd assume they would want to hit no less than 60% - 70% of that install base.

What does that have to do with what I said???

Did you take the 'that's great' to mean 'that's a great number'? Because that's not what I am saying. I'm saying 'it's great that that is your prediction'.

In 2006 when I first played the original Wii at a Kiosk sometime before it launched I knew it was going to sell amazingly.

I was even impressed initially and bought one day 1.

When I saw the Wii U and learned about the actual tech inside I knew it was going to flop hard, because I did not see the appeal of the tablet controller like I did with the Wii waggle remotes and it turns out I wasn't alone with that opinion.

Switch is somewhere in the middle where it has some things going for it over the Wii U, but it doesn't really offer something truly unique that would get super casuals to jump on board like they did with the original Wii. A handheld with an HDMI dock is not innovative, nor are removable controllers.

Of course it did. It had crap launch games and an equally crap price point. Nintendo saved it by slashing the price early on.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out why the 3DS sold like shit early on.

What is your prediction?

@emgesp: The xbox one had a strong first month as well. How bou dah? Why bring gen 6 into this?

Anecdotal evidence that requires us to believe your story.

From what we know so far, the Switch is the fastest selling Nintendo system ever. That means it's beating the Wii, DS, 3DS, and Gameboy at a fast rate. All of those systems sold remarkably well, all things considered. That is reason for people to be confident in it, plus Nintendo isn't even providing enough stock to meet the demand. Will it sustain over time? Who knows, but the sales figures right now point to a very successful system for Nintendo. You can say that there's the potential for it to fail, but there's also the potential (and a potential that is largely supported by sales statistics) that it will be a large success.

He's forgetting also that hardware sales are the least important metric of all, if Switch sold 50 million units, that would only net Nintendo a profit margin of 1 billion dollars, they could make that margin with two video games.

The real money is made via software and accessory sales.

So did the PS4 and they are both still selling great. But those two consoles have something Switch won't have, strong third party support.

You sidestepped the entire question, explaining how (if we're to believe your statements without definitive proof) you've successfully predicted the outcome of both the Wii and Wii U.

But again I ask, for the third time: what do you, as an individual, gain from consistently coming to this forum to play this guessing game other than personal satisfaction?

You don't provide anything other than your own personal opinion, admit it's your own personal opinion, and then expect to wave that around as some definitive proof that your prediction is somehow more valid than say, iandizion's. As Chaz pointed out, it comes across as salt, and doubly so when you default to the defense that "you are a Nintendo fan because you have more time as a fan" as if that's any real measure of anything.

So again: what do you gain from this exercise? A single post on a single thread which you would have made way back when Switch was first released or even first announced would suffice as "proof" that you predicted the failure of the device come 2020 or 2021 when a lifetime sales number is more easily observed. So what do you gain from all this?

I predicted it was going to sell great early on, so these sales don't shock me. It literally launched with a brand new console level Zelda game that you could take on the go. That is every hardcore Zelda fans wet dream.

Hello, I have lurked this forum for bit and your topic is what inspired me to join. You are an amazing hero and I salute you for standing up against the Nintendo empire. It is a shame to see Microsoft so oppressed on this site to where all the review scores hold Xbox games to a vastly different standard than Nintendo games. I am afraid to provide more insight into this because I might get banned by NintendoSpot.

@emgesp: Ya'll keep bringing up Switch's third party support like you never held a DS in your lives. On what authority can you even talk about third party support anyway? When's the last time third party delivered a AAAE to XBox?

If this was the Nintendo Happy Fun Club forum then you'd have a point, but this is System Wars and I am in no obligation to say only great things about Nintendo products.

Did everyone forget the whole point of this damn forum? When did everyone become such sensitive Sallys? Some of you Nintendo fans need to grow a backbone.

I wonder who this is.

This is true, but its also true that Switch is already missing out on a lot of third party software. Without strong third party support the Switch can only go so far.

I'm getting tired of this. Do this one more time and I will ensure every single account you have is gone, and that you are unable to post on this site ever again.

PS4 and XB1 is outselling 3DS on a monthly basis. 3DS still has more total sales, but it was also released 2 yrs before the PS4 and XB1.

Japanese third party support is nice, but it can't make up for a lack of western third party support.

*whip noises*

Ya'll lems had better pray Scorpio really is The Return of The Mack because ya'll have been talking mad hot shit like this for the past month.

And yet 3DS sold 70 million unitson the back of just Japanese third party support, I'd say it can make up for western support just fine

Right (although hardware is a major profit maker for Nintendo)- he's making short sighted assumptions predicated on no knowledge or hard numbers whatsoever.