Lest we forget that the GC had a great launch as well.

It really annoys me when people try and compare the Wii U to the Dreamcast as if they are equals. No they aren't equals, when the Dreamcast came out it wasn't an overpriced and underpowered console. It also has a way better game library than the Wii U.

Ah yeah, Dreamcast was quite strong when it came out. People were amazed by Soul Calibur I think. Most systems in the past tried to give their customers a powerful machine. I feel like Nintendo did not even try with the Wii U. It was like with the Wii U and the Switch they are putting the gimmick first and the actual system second. The Dreamcast was the opposite where the VMU was multipurpose and did not detract from the quality of the system.

Not to mention the Switch's gimmick does not even offer any noticeable gameplay differences (a "selling point" for the 3DS and DS). There are http://nintendotoday.com/switch-console-bending/ systems bending while docked and various issues that shows a lack of foresight and being cheap in terms of overall production.

Of course there will be exceptions, but if you think casuals make up even 15% of Switch sales then you aren't being realistic.

The casuals ain't coming in big numbers until Animal Crossing and Pokemon get released.

All I know is that the switch isn't in a place right now that I'd buy one.

Maybe by the time Xenoblade Chronicles 2 comes out I'll like the games lineup.

Maybe not yet since it currently sells out as soon as it goes on shelves and the hardcore will be more likely to put in more effort into tracking one down, but casuals are already interested in it and once it becomes more easily attainable, I definitely think casuals will make up much more than 15% of Switch sales.

The Nintendo Switch has people outside of Nintendo's hardcore fanbase interested and excited; I've seen it first hand and I expect this to only grow since the very nature of the device provides the best marketing that any company could ever hope to have. I've taken my Switch to public places and when people see me playing it, they get curious about it and think it's cool. I imagine this is also happening with other Switch owners all over the world and they are therefore marketing and getting casual gamers interested in it just by playing it in public places. And this free marketing to casual gamers will be even more effective once Mario Kart is released since then when someone sees you playing the Switch and gets curious about it, you can just easily hand them a joycon controller and watch them fall in love with it on the spot. And this is the main reason why your prediction of the Nintendo Switch being a failure will be wrong.

And if you think that we have to wait until Animal Crossing and Pokemon get released for casuals to get interested in the Switch then you are underestimating the huge appeal of Mario Kart. Both hardcore and casual, both men and women, both young and old... everybody loves Mario Kart and once they get to try it via the free marketing that I was just talking about, they will want a Switch.

Sure down the road that is possible, but I'm talking currently.

Last time I checked casuals didn't care enough about Mario Kart 8 to pick up a Wii U.

Haters gona hate, hate, hate, hate....

As I explained, Mario Kart 8 on the Wii U didn't have the free marketing from Switch owners playing in public and being able to let casuals try it right there on the spot with the joycon controllers like Mario Kart 8 on the Switch will be getting. This excellent type of marketing is something that no other console is capable of and it is a huge deal and I don't think you and other non-Switch owners that are predicting it's failure understand how effective this is yet at getting people interested in the device. I've seen from first hand experience people get curious and interested in the Switch just by seeing me playing it in public.

People are saying this because nintendo has a history of poor marketing and gimmicky systems. The combination of the two creates this initial positive response and then a pretty big dip in console sales and game sales. We've seen it with every nintendo system past the N64 and they seem to be following the same model.

As for your marketing idea, this would be effective with a 5-10 dollar item also being sold on the spot (what youre describing would be an immediate gratification thing), but not a game and/or system. Im sure we could attribute some sales to this idea, but nothing worth mentioning. What would help nintendo more than anything else, is to stop fucking with youtubers and you know... actually spend some money on advertising.

Yeah, but the GameCube had hardware restrictions for developers (cute discs and a fisher price controller layout for NO reason) AND Nintendo's usual home console lack of 3rd party support.

The Switch has adequate controls and will likely get access to Nintendo's handheld 3rd party support, which is decent and what I'm hoping for. The switch has non intrusive gimmicks, so developers don't have to go 'I have to slide these controllers out? We have to make games for this?'.

So I'm not buying that the Switch is going to fail. I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt for now. BUT in my opinion, Nintendo has a short window of opportunity, they need games to hit while it's hot, to entice developers in. So if I'm Nintendo, right now, I'm porting some of those other Wii U games over.

Well posted, I want to state right of the bat that I concur with each and every statement that you have made.

*Reads thread. Is highly amused. Goes back to my Switch to play one of the best games ever.

It's a shame some people are missing out. Glad it's not me.

I will give Nintendo credit in that regard. The marketing for the Switch is much improved over Wii U. I actually see Nintendo commercials for once on a regular basis. I don't think I've ever seen a Wii U commercial.

I'm not saying it will totally fail, but I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't meet Nintendo's long term sales expectations.

Yep, I stated that to him as he only thinks that only "Hardcore" Nintendo fans are buying the Switch and Zelda. Yet when I bring up a point on how parents buy kids an iPad Mini as their entertainment device for games and youtube, he shrugs off as it doesn't count because an iPad can be use for their homework.

Yep... The last smart thing Nintendo did..... sigh...

Righto. That doesn't really mean much either.

Wii U didn't fail because of the tablet, Wii U failed because of poor marketing and messaging. People thought that the Wii U was a new Wii Accessory. Nintendo failed to show off the console and concentrated on the gamepad more. With the Switch, they're succeeding because the message is much clearer than the Wii U.

@emgesp: but it sorta did launch with a Mario game instead of playing as Mario your Luigi also had a wave race

Oh and Nintendo is making a profit off each switch sold let's not forget that

Which means even if they only sold 25 million switches they'd be rich and I think switch will easily sell 60 million or more because of the portable side of things combined with home console market this thing could be a Wii like success

NIntendo has already publicly admitted that one of the biggest reasons for the wiiu failure was the tablet controller. You can't change history.

I dont care about Gamecubes total sales. To me Gamecube was the best console Nintendo ever made since SNES era with great performances , appealing price , great exclusives/time exclusives , great and diverse library with 1st and 3rd parties.

I wish Switch to end something like Gamecube rather than being a success with over 80million units sold worldwide though end up in a serious life support early on despite that.

WE will see

What pushed early sales of the GC was the news of Resident Evil being exclusive. Otherwise, the GC kinda suffered a lot of the same problems the Wii U did (namely Nintendo's bigger titles coming out too late or near the end of it's generation like Twilight Princess did). The GC is not one of my favorite Nintendo consoles, btw.

Anyway, if you're going to use a piece of history like this to play down Switch sales, you should also mention that these are two completely different machines in terms of features, targets and selling points from two different generations. AND, the GC's sales were heavily eclipsed by the Wii (which had nearly the same hardware profile). Having the right games at launch and including all the right features in the system completely turned things around. This is exactly what we have with the Switch and it's currently outpacing the Wii more than one month into launch while your data reflects one single week of GC sales.

The difference is obviously that GC was only just the games, being just a device that played games and did nothing else at all, while the Switch's popularity obviously has much to do with its hardware.

But we will see. For the Switch to be for real, it needs to keep this pace in the doldrums of the market season.

1. Yes, there are exceptions, but the majority buying Switch right now are the hardcore.

2. From a Parent's perspective its pretty easy to understand why they would choose to buy a $329.99 iPad over a $360 Mario Box. And guess what Parents will continue to choose tablets and smartphones in the majority over Nintendo systems for their kids because these days Android and Apple devices is what kids care about, not Nintendo.

Yeah, I doubt 500K sold in a week because people were hyped to play a game that released 4 months later.

Sorry, but Luigi is not Mario and it wasn't the 3D platfomer people were waiting for.

So this is a very good point that most people seem to overlook. There are multiple lines of cheap 60, 70, 80 dollar tablets for kids specifically because no parent wants to invest 2-300 dollars on something that will be dropped over and over.

People have to remember that consoles become successful because of the general consumer, the people who dont know anything. The people who will look at an Android and see it can do gaming and so much more at a better price than a Nintendo Switch... they dont care if Mario Kart 8 is on one and not the other.

The Switch has sold very well thus far. No one can argue to the contrary. What the future hold remains to be seen. I see two things that can help it from launch to the holiday season. First, yes, BOTW is released and it has the season pass which will keep interest for time to come. Second, a killer app will be coming this holiday IF Nintendo releases it free of delay.

Are you kidding me? My Sister-in-law, had choices to buy my niece a cheap tablet, but she went with an iPad Mini because quality mattered to her. A disposable tablet under $100 can't run shit, not even Minecraft.

All I want to know is, if the Switch ends up outselling the XBox One, (and let's face it, that's NOT setting the bar very high as things stand) will people finally stop acting like everything the XBox does to spin in place in terms of global market position is a good thing?

Teh western develuhperz have not given this damn thing a leg up so much as a $100-200 year one price adjustment simply pushed competition down. I mean, we'll see if Scorpio resets the table and all, but people act like there is only one way to see things right now and I can see less than 30 million reasons why it doesn't.

Some people drawing lines in the sand have to be bending over awfully low because they talk like they have sticks but they're using their fingers.

Again, the average consumer wont care about this and many wont know the difference. They will see that it can run games, they will know many kids have ipads/androids now and they are cheap for any child under 12 who will most likely break it. Who do you think is buying up all those under 80 dollar tablets?

Whether you want to recognize this or not, there will be a fairly large base of potential consumers that will pass on the Switch (a base that did not pass up on the WII) because its not a normal console and their under 12 year old, wants it. They will most likely simply get them one of the cheap tablets or a higher quality one but still half the price of a Switch. Because these people are buying them FOR someone else who could not otherwise afford one, so the concern of the parent will be; will my 400 dollar investment easily break? And of course anyone with a child or who is around children, know that children make the unbreakable, breakable and most attempt to find cheaper options for things they suspect will break.

Making assumptions again? No, those cheap ass tablets are also a security hazard as they're not the latest Android OS or they can't upgrade even further! Consumers DO care about the quality of the product. If you think families that are averaging above $50,000 a year would buy their kid a cheap knock off, you're kidding yourself. We live in a material world where brand name is everything.

@emgesp: I really don't care how well it sells. I don't have stock in Nintendo. I own a Switch and a 3ds and I love em both.

Except we are not talking about a demographic buying something for themselves. We are talking about a demographic who buy something for someone, that someone being under 12 and prone to accidents, losing things and breaking things. You keep wanting to bring up things that don't really matter when talking about the general/average consumer. I also feel like youre simply dismissing the American market that has definitely proven cheaper products of the same or similar item, generally sell better.

Not so much for the American workers that make less than 50k a year. Which is 65-70% of our working class. Even if we go with this idea that "brand name is everything" that is contradicted with the vary fact that Walmart (the largest retailer in the US and world) sells more cheap brand shit than anything else, But lets not forget we're still talking about Samsung, Amazon, Insignia, etc. recognizable brands.

Who knows though, it could be complete coincidence that the consumer sales for tablets went up about 115% the year after the introduction of the 60-90 dollar tablets. But i dont think anyone would dismiss the idea and most in marketing (having been in marketing myself), would take it far more as fact than not.

Just proving my point. Parents have no problem spending top dollar when it comes to tablets for their kids, but a $360 Mario machine is a tough sell. Its too damn bad Nintendo didn't partner up with Android and allow the Switch to function as a full fledged tablet as well.

WiiU sales were abysmal what like less than 15 million world wide . That's a lot of people missing out on games like Mario Maker, Mario Kart, splatoon.

Those games were great, and Mario Kart 8 deluxe is right around the corner and while some may be salty about double dipping, I'll be in crowd of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is my first time playing this. As will many other people. Mario Kart alone will move more Switchs'. Then you'll have E3 and Splatoon 2, but from June to December is going to be the period of time Nintendo needs to work on. Hopefully something is coming maybe a decent 3rd party game drops who knows. That's 6 months of dryness as far as it looks to me. If the sales can stay solid and relevant it will be ok and Switch will have a good launch year. Cause then Mario Odessey happens and while I'm very on the fence about that game, it's still Mario.

I'm hoping to see some good ports between June and December I really want Mario Maker to happen around August/September for that anticipation of a new Mario game.