Post your election map predictions

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comp_atkins

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#1 comp_atkins
Member since 2005 • 36783 Posts

There are lots of interactive maps that let you play out various election scenarios.

https://www.270towin.com/

Post your 2020 prediction maps here.

My guess: Biden ultimately takes it but it is VERY close.

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super600

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#2  Edited By super600  Moderator
Member since 2007 • 32614 Posts

This is a slighty updated version of a prediction I made months ago. Biden wins by a bit over 10 points in my prediction. Montana and Texas are close with biden having a decent chance at flipping the latter state.

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LJS9502_basic

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#3 LJS9502_basic
Member since 2003 • 171541 Posts

@comp_atkins: PA is currently not leaning red.

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Vaasman

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#4  Edited By Vaasman  Online
Member since 2008 • 14684 Posts

@LJS9502_basic said:

@comp_atkins: PA is currently not leaning red.

Neither is Wisconsin. One outlier poll had Biden up 17 points, and some others around 10 points. Though even in more reasonable results he's up 5 or 6 points.

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comp_atkins

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#5  Edited By comp_atkins
Member since 2005 • 36783 Posts

@LJS9502_basic said:

@comp_atkins: PA is currently not leaning red.

i know. i just generally think people lie in polls just to **** with them. particularly would-be trump voters.

which is why i think it'll be way closer than current polls suggest.

i'll take being wrong if it means a blowout :)

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LJS9502_basic

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#6 LJS9502_basic
Member since 2003 • 171541 Posts

@comp_atkins said:
@LJS9502_basic said:

@comp_atkins: PA is currently not leaning red.

i know. i just generally think people lie in polls just to **** with them. particularly would-be trump voters.

If Philadelphia and Pittsburgh vote the red loses.

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mattbbpl

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#7 mattbbpl
Member since 2006 • 19196 Posts

@comp_atkins: I did for the first time this week. They found me out pretty quickly with the second question, though.

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lamprey263

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#8 lamprey263
Member since 2006 • 37706 Posts

Biden will win popular vote by greater margins than Hillary, GOP will try voter suppression tactics that will drag election out for weeks; the close call will be in the courts.

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Zaryia

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#9 Zaryia
Member since 2016 • 14129 Posts

@lamprey263 said:

Biden will win popular vote by greater margins than Hillary, GOP will try voter suppression tactics that will drag election out for weeks; the close call will be in the courts.

He's really going at it with the voter and even vote suppression.

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Eoten

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#12 Eoten
Member since 2020 • 1911 Posts

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SargentD

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#13 SargentD
Member since 2020 • 91 Posts

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deactivated-5fab1400b2fcc

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#14 deactivated-5fab1400b2fcc
Member since 2020 • 2126 Posts

Trump supporters got some far out predictions.

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HoolaHoopMan

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#15 HoolaHoopMan
Member since 2009 • 11742 Posts

@comp_atkins: A lot of your map doesn't make much sense. If Biden is going to eek out a win he's going to do so with a win in WI and Maine while losing AZ. I think your goal was to get to 271, not to accurately gauge states they would win for either side.

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LJS9502_basic

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#16 LJS9502_basic
Member since 2003 • 171541 Posts

@thegreatchomp said:

Trump supporters got some far out predictions.

You don't like the wave of red everywhere on their maps. LOL seems wishful thinking for them.

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GirlUSoCrazy

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#17  Edited By GirlUSoCrazy
Member since 2015 • 10517 Posts

@eoten: 🤣🤣🤣😂😂😆😆😆

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Atomic1977

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#18 Atomic1977
Member since 2004 • 276 Posts

The correct choice is to re elect Trump. Biden is too old and is not the right choice for the country.

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deactivated-5fab1400b2fcc

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#19  Edited By deactivated-5fab1400b2fcc
Member since 2020 • 2126 Posts

1. If Biden wins by a small margin.

2. Best possible outcome, but VERY UNLIKELY! I will post ones for Trump in a separate post.

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deactivated-5fab1400b2fcc

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#20 deactivated-5fab1400b2fcc
Member since 2020 • 2126 Posts

1. Slight Trump victory

2. Best possible outcome.

For me the slight Trump is most likely going to happen, maybe not in those exact setup but similar EC.

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Shmiity

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#21 Shmiity
Member since 2006 • 6612 Posts

Right now, this is the most realistic outcome. I acknowledge that PA, FL, NC, and AZ could alter this. But this is what I see.

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Shmiity

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#22 Shmiity
Member since 2006 • 6612 Posts
@comp_atkins said:

There are lots of interactive maps that let you play out various election scenarios.

https://www.270towin.com/

Post your 2020 prediction maps here.

My guess: Biden ultimately takes it but it is VERY close.

There is a flaw in this map- Maine is split by congressional district and Southern Maine is nauseatingly liberal. ME-2 may go Trump, but thats all. I would say this isn't a bad take- but it would more likely be 273 Biden if I follow the rest of your choices.

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Eoten

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#23  Edited By Eoten
Member since 2020 • 1911 Posts

Except, no way Biden gets AZ, and his chances in Michigan are very, very slim at best. He just never got the lead in early voted he needed to take Michigan. After riots in Kenosha and Philadelphia though, you can consider both Wisconsin and PA out of his reach now.

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comp_atkins

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#24 comp_atkins
Member since 2005 • 36783 Posts

@HoolaHoopMan said:

@comp_atkins: A lot of your map doesn't make much sense. If Biden is going to eek out a win he's going to do so with a win in WI and Maine while losing AZ. I think your goal was to get to 271, not to accurately gauge states they would win for either side.

actually didn't really notice how close it was getting until i was done clicking the states.

in any case, feel free to post your own.

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deactivated-5fab1400b2fcc

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#25  Edited By deactivated-5fab1400b2fcc
Member since 2020 • 2126 Posts

@eoten: Except there is. You have proven yourself to be hyper partisan and willing to twist anything in your favor. Right now early polling shows a big lead in favor Democrats, but no matter the lead you will cry it’s not enough.

But you have been told these are just what parties they are registered with not who they voted for. A Republican could vote for Biden and it would still show it as a Republican voted. You dismissed this fact.

Reply or not, I won’t let you lie in these forums.

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Eoten

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#26 Eoten
Member since 2020 • 1911 Posts

@thegreatchomp said:

@eoten: Except there is. You have proven yourself to be hyper partisan and willing to twist anything in your favor. Right now early polling shows a big lead in favor Democrats, but no matter the lead you will cry it’s not enough.

But you have been told these are just what parties they are registered with not who they voted for. A Republican could vote for Biden and it would still show it as a Republican voted. You dismissed this fact.

Reply or not, I won’t let you lie in these forums.

There isn't and you'll find out in less than a week. The victory won't be Traitor Joe's.

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deactivated-5fab1400b2fcc

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#27 deactivated-5fab1400b2fcc
Member since 2020 • 2126 Posts

@eoten: Nice deflection.

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super600

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#28  Edited By super600  Moderator
Member since 2007 • 32614 Posts

@thegreatchomp said:

1. If Biden wins by a small margin.

2. Best possible outcome, but VERY UNLIKELY! I will post ones for Trump in a separate post.

My best case scenario map has biden getting 416 EVs.My best case scenario map has biden flipping Montana because of the tightening race there on the pres level, ME-2 and NE-2. If biden does end up winning by 12 points a state like Montana could surprise us and flip

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Sevenizz

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#29 Sevenizz
Member since 2010 • 6412 Posts

I just hope the freak out videos are as entertaining as they were in ‘16. Please raise you hands up to the heavens and cry in FRONT of the camera.

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tenaka2

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#30 tenaka2
Member since 2004 • 17958 Posts

@Sevenizz said:

I just hope the freak out videos are as entertaining as they were in ‘16. Please raise you hands up to the heavens and cry in FRONT of the camera.

I thought they banned fox news in canada?

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Gaming-Planet

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#31 Gaming-Planet
Member since 2008 • 20457 Posts

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deactivated-5fab1400b2fcc

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#32 deactivated-5fab1400b2fcc
Member since 2020 • 2126 Posts

@super600: Montana is ruby red, I don’t see that flipping for a long time. I could however see Texas flipping soon. Thanks to more Mexicans coming up on voting age it may flip Texas.

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super600

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#33  Edited By super600  Moderator
Member since 2007 • 32614 Posts
@thegreatchomp said:

@super600: Montana is ruby red, I don’t see that flipping for a long time. I could however see Texas flipping soon. Thanks to more Mexicans coming up on voting age it may flip Texas.

Trump’s support has collapsed in Montana. Polls now show him leading in Montana by like 5 points. Turnout is also pretty high there at the moment and a combination of marijuana legalization and strong downballot candidates being on the ballot might produce a surprise on election night there if biden wins by a double digit margin nationally.It’s not likely but a crazy election night scenario would have a state like Montana flipping

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mattbbpl

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#34 mattbbpl
Member since 2006 • 19196 Posts

There's a lot of excitement about TX, but...

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Eoten

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#35  Edited By Eoten
Member since 2020 • 1911 Posts

@super600 said:
@thegreatchomp said:

1. If Biden wins by a small margin.

2. Best possible outcome, but VERY UNLIKELY! I will post ones for Trump in a separate post.

My best case scenario map has biden getting 416 EVs.My best case scenario map has biden flipping Montana because of the tightening race there on the pres level, ME-2 and NE-2. If biden does end up winning by 12 points a state like Montana could surprise us and flip

Both of you are going to be very, very disappointed if you think Biden is getting over 400 EC votes. He'd be lucky to reach 200. I mean come on. Florida, and Texas?

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deactivated-5fab1400b2fcc

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#36  Edited By deactivated-5fab1400b2fcc
Member since 2020 • 2126 Posts

@eoten: His much do you paid to run your mouth here?

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LJS9502_basic

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#37 LJS9502_basic
Member since 2003 • 171541 Posts

@Sevenizz said:

I just hope the freak out videos are as entertaining as they were in ‘16. Please raise you hands up to the heavens and cry in FRONT of the camera.

You want to see conservatives cry because right now every indication is trump is losing and taking some other seats with him.

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HoolaHoopMan

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#38 HoolaHoopMan
Member since 2009 • 11742 Posts

^^^ Biden's most likely path to victory.

^^^ Trump's most likely path to victory.

I'm being conservative and assuming a Trump win in GA, AZ, OH, IA, and FL. My second assumption is that PA and NC will be the deciding states. With that being said, if trump is losing GA he'll probably lose FL. If he loses OH he can't win PA or IA, as these states will likely swing in the same direction. Biden has cushion, Trump does not.

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HoolaHoopMan

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#39 HoolaHoopMan
Member since 2009 • 11742 Posts

@mattbbpl said:

There's a lot of excitement about TX, but...

Texas has been the White Whale for the democrats for a while now. It'll remain out of reach for the time being.

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LJS9502_basic

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#40 LJS9502_basic
Member since 2003 • 171541 Posts

@mattbbpl: Texas is interesting because it's at least purple now. Not sure if they swing to blue this election but at some point I think they are going to lose Texas. May still be too early yet though.

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Sushiglutton

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#41 Sushiglutton
Member since 2009 • 8288 Posts

I predict Biden will win 350 electoral votes.

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SargentD

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#42 SargentD
Member since 2020 • 91 Posts

@eoten said:
@super600 said:
@thegreatchomp said:

1. If Biden wins by a small margin.

2. Best possible outcome, but VERY UNLIKELY! I will post ones for Trump in a separate post.

My best case scenario map has biden getting 416 EVs.My best case scenario map has biden flipping Montana because of the tightening race there on the pres level, ME-2 and NE-2. If biden does end up winning by 12 points a state like Montana could surprise us and flip

Both of you are going to be very, very disappointed if you think Biden is getting over 400 EC votes. He'd be lucky to reach 200. I mean come on. Florida, and Texas?

Personally I see VA flipping red being more likely than NC flipping blue.

I see Minnesota flipping red before I see Montana flipping blue as well.

PA, OH, MN, WI are all in play for trump, consider that Montana is only worth 3 electoral votes and all these other states are worth 4-5 times more in EC votes than Montana, id be worried if i was a leftist.

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Maroxad

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#43 Maroxad
Member since 2007 • 16499 Posts

Texas will become blue once it is urbanized enough, it is already going there.

It makes me wonder about those who support the Electoral college for Partisan reasons? Will they still favor it when the EC makes it nigh impossible for Republicans to win?

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mattbbpl

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#44 mattbbpl
Member since 2006 • 19196 Posts

@Maroxad: They'll just allocate TX electoral votes by district rather than winner take all assuming they have the foresight to do so before losing control of the state governing bodies.

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Sushiglutton

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#45 Sushiglutton
Member since 2009 • 8288 Posts

Thought this article convincingly explained that this race is close to over: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/five-reasons-to-believe-2020-wont-be-a-2016-sequel/616896/

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LJS9502_basic

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#46 LJS9502_basic
Member since 2003 • 171541 Posts

@sargentd said:

Personally I see VA flipping red being more likely than NC flipping blue.

I see Minnesota flipping red before I see Montana flipping blue as well.

PA, OH, MN, WI are all in play for trump, consider that Montana is only worth 3 electoral votes and all these other states are worth 4-5 times more in EC votes than Montana, id be worried if i was a leftist.

PA is not generally a red state. And I can tell you that enthusiasm for trump is not as it was in the suburbs last cycle.

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lonewolf604

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#47 lonewolf604
Member since 2007 • 8720 Posts

The states that were red in 2016....I don’t see them flipping blue now. Just my guess. I’m leaning towards Trump around 280-300.

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super600

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#48  Edited By super600  Moderator
Member since 2007 • 32614 Posts
@HoolaHoopMan said:
@mattbbpl said:

There's a lot of excitement about TX, but...

Texas has been the White Whale for the democrats for a while now. It'll remain out of reach for the time being.

All the internal and public polling data from state house and congressional district races I have seen in the last few months shows texas as a tossup. If trump manages to win texas it won't be by much. I also wouldn't trust targetsmart especially in states were it's hard to determine the partisan breakdown of the electorate like in Texas. Also there will always be a chunk of republicans that vote for the dem candidate and the same is true for the dems.

@eoten

I don't think my best case scenario will happen but in a landslide environment like the one we are in now it's possible some states no one ever expected to flip like Montana do end up flipping.

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Xabiss

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#49 Xabiss
Member since 2012 • 4185 Posts

Wait you think Trump is going to win?!? Really?

@thegreatchomp said:

1. Slight Trump victory

2. Best possible outcome.

For me the slight Trump is most likely going to happen, maybe not in those exact setup but similar EC.

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deactivated-5fab1400b2fcc

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#50 deactivated-5fab1400b2fcc
Member since 2020 • 2126 Posts

@Xabiss: I’ve said that multiple times.