Poll #1: Who is going to win the 2020 Democratic primary?

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Posted by Master_Live (19378 posts) 1 month, 12 days ago

Poll: Poll #1: Who is going to win the 2020 Democratic primary? (48 votes)

Joe Biden 29%
Cory Booker 2%
Pete Buttigieg 0%
Julian Castro 0%
John Delaney 0%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%
Mike Gravel 0%
Kamala Harris 8%
John Hickenlooper 0%
Jay Inslee 0%
Amy Klobuchar 0%
Wayne Messam 0%
Beto O'Rourke 6%
Tim Ryan 0%
Bernie Sanders 40%
Eric Swalwell 0%
Elizabeth Warren 4%
Marianne Williamson 0%
Andrew Yang 8%

I did this kind of poll during the 2016 cycle and unlike that occasion, in which I let my personal bias interfere by not including Donald J. Trump in the first poll since I thought his candidacy was a joke, I have included all the "major" candidates that have declare their intention to run for the presidency or have created an exploratory committee + Joe Biden (which hasn't done either).

The question is simple: Who do you think will win the 2020 Democratic presidential primary?

Not who do you want to win it, but who will win. But of course, you are more than welcome to share your preferred candidate.

I will run this poll from time to time to see how our predictions change.

Avatar image for Master_Live
#51 Posted by Master_Live (19378 posts) -

@theone86 said:
@Master_Live said:

@hrt_rulz01: Well, I think that on a divided field (which will inevitably be culled eventually) he has a chance to win the Democratic nomination with a plurality (lets not think about a divided convention for now, which could be the single greatest TV event of my lifetime).

Once you get to the actual race I think it would become the most ugly Presidential race in modern U.S. history (or I guess since the last one). All the Bernie stuff with the communist dictators during the 80's etc. would come out. That plus the fact that at point Sanders plans for how to pay for (or lack there of) all his free stuff (health care, college, etc.) would come under scrutiny and the undeniable fact the middle class would pay more in taxes (with the argument that they would be better off with all new services they get) would be inescapable. Trump strategy would be to drive Sanders' negatives up since his stupidity won't allow him to run on the economy.

At that point, I think it comes down to the economy. If the economy is doing well Trump will be reelected over a Sanders candidacy, if not Bernie will win.

LOL, free stuff. Trump drives up the deficit for tax cuts on the wealthy and a wall we don't need (that will conveniently make connected contractors quite rich) and you conservatives say we're the ones trying to give away free stuff. Between you and Jac, we're going to need a fleet of bulldozers to deal with all the conservative bullshit in this thread.

"You conservatives", that's funny. Get a clue.

Avatar image for Nuck81
#52 Posted by Nuck81 (7427 posts) -

@texasgoldrush: no

Avatar image for Xabiss
#53 Posted by Xabiss (2495 posts) -

Just looking at that list reminds me of two words "Shit Show".

Avatar image for theone86
#54 Posted by theone86 (22417 posts) -
@Master_Live said:
@theone86 said:
@Master_Live said:

@hrt_rulz01: Well, I think that on a divided field (which will inevitably be culled eventually) he has a chance to win the Democratic nomination with a plurality (lets not think about a divided convention for now, which could be the single greatest TV event of my lifetime).

Once you get to the actual race I think it would become the most ugly Presidential race in modern U.S. history (or I guess since the last one). All the Bernie stuff with the communist dictators during the 80's etc. would come out. That plus the fact that at point Sanders plans for how to pay for (or lack there of) all his free stuff (health care, college, etc.) would come under scrutiny and the undeniable fact the middle class would pay more in taxes (with the argument that they would be better off with all new services they get) would be inescapable. Trump strategy would be to drive Sanders' negatives up since his stupidity won't allow him to run on the economy.

At that point, I think it comes down to the economy. If the economy is doing well Trump will be reelected over a Sanders candidacy, if not Bernie will win.

LOL, free stuff. Trump drives up the deficit for tax cuts on the wealthy and a wall we don't need (that will conveniently make connected contractors quite rich) and you conservatives say we're the ones trying to give away free stuff. Between you and Jac, we're going to need a fleet of bulldozers to deal with all the conservative bullshit in this thread.

"You conservatives", that's funny. Get a clue.

Awww, did that trigger you? Do you need your safe space, snowflake?

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#55 Posted by mattbbpl (16987 posts) -

@Master_Live said:

I think Bernie Sanders is the favorite, he is polling well (at the top or near top of nearly all the credible polls so far), he probably has the most loyal following, has raised the most (or 2nd most) money so far, and has wide name recognition.

2nd would be Joe Biden. He is polling well, has the credentials to be a credible candidate and has wide name recognition.

I might discuss the others on a later post.

I have these two at the top as well, but I consider them flipped. People on this board tend to overestimate Sanders's strengths and underestimate his weaknesses (probably because the progressive wing of the party is overrepresented here and the establishment wing is underrepresented here).

Regardless, it's super early and there is a lot of room for movement. We don't even have to worry about early races hitting before candidates have time to build momentum yet.

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#56 Posted by Jacanuk (18252 posts) -
@Master_Live said:

I think Bernie Sanders is the favorite, he is polling well (at the top or near top of nearly all the credible polls so far), he probably has the most loyal following, has raised the most (or 2nd most) money so far, and has wide name recognition.

2nd would be Joe Biden. He is polling well, has the credentials to be a credible candidate and has wide name recognition.

I might discuss the others on a later post.

Not sure why you think Sanders will beat Biden.

Right now avg. is Biden 31.2 vs Sanders 21.7 except in an Emerson poll posted earlier today which has a Sanders lead, but considering it´s an Emerson poll it´s not a massive surprise,

But Biden has not even announced yet so if he doesn´t it looks like a cakewalk for Sanders through the primaries.

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#57 Edited by texasgoldrush (12801 posts) -

@mattbbpl said:
@Master_Live said:

I think Bernie Sanders is the favorite, he is polling well (at the top or near top of nearly all the credible polls so far), he probably has the most loyal following, has raised the most (or 2nd most) money so far, and has wide name recognition.

2nd would be Joe Biden. He is polling well, has the credentials to be a credible candidate and has wide name recognition.

I might discuss the others on a later post.

I have these two at the top as well, but I consider them flipped. People on this board tend to overestimate Sanders's strengths and underestimate his weaknesses (probably because the progressive wing of the party is overrepresented here and the establishment wing is underrepresented here).

Regardless, it's super early and there is a lot of room for movement. We don't even have to worry about early races hitting before candidates have time to build momentum yet.

And the polls and the media overestimate Biden's as well. I can see both Sanders and Biden losing in the primary to a more complete candidate like Harris.

People do not know how bad of a candidate Biden is right now.

The real crisis with the Democrats is that the culture is with the moderates but going by the policy polls, it favors the progressives. The Overton Window on many issues have shifted left.

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#58 Posted by DEVILinIRON (4777 posts) -

I really don't want Biden to win.

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#59 Edited by mattbbpl (16987 posts) -

@texasgoldrush: The overton window has indeed shifted, you're right about that

Avatar image for Nuck81
#60 Posted by Nuck81 (7427 posts) -

Polls now are based on name recognition.

Wait till some of these guys get some real exposure.

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#61 Posted by Jacanuk (18252 posts) -
@DEVILinIRON said:

I really don't want Biden to win.

Why?

Considering who he may run against, who do you want to win?

Avatar image for mandzilla
#62 Posted by Mandzilla (4037 posts) -

Feel the Bern.

Avatar image for DEVILinIRON
#63 Posted by DEVILinIRON (4777 posts) -

@Jacanuk: I don't know, Joe Rogan?

Avatar image for Lach0121
#64 Edited by Lach0121 (11391 posts) -

As long as we don't get someone in there like the current conman that we have now.

I fear that we may never recover fully from some of the asinine, and completely untested decisions/executive orders that this current fiasco has produced. No matter who wins. BUT if this county is really so delusional to re-elect Trump, I fear for the future.

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#65 Edited by Master_Live (19378 posts) -

Lets "close" the poll. After 9 days, 7 hours and 39 votes cast, the results are:

  • Joe Biden: 28%
  • Cory Booker: 3%
  • Tulsi Gabbard: 3%
  • Kamala Harris: 8%
  • Beto O'Rourke: 5%
  • Bernie Sanders: 38%
  • Elizabeth Warren: 5%
  • Andrew Yang: 10%
  • Everyone else: 0%

Thank you to those who participated.

Avatar image for Gaming-Planet
#66 Posted by Gaming-Planet (19919 posts) -
@Nuck81 said:

@HoolaHoopMan: Sanders needs to GTFO.

Outliers are fine in congressional seats, but we need strong centrist moderates for our countries leadership.

We need both conservative and liberal moderates running the country.

Centrism evolved into neoliberal corporatists.

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#67 Posted by jeezers (2657 posts) -

Kamala Harris

Establishment and can pull the progressives because shes not white or male

I would say bernie but the DNC already cheated him once so I doubt they will let him win this time

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#68 Posted by sonicare (56647 posts) -

I guess we should ask the DNC who is going to win. They will arrange for it.

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#69 Posted by Baconstrip78 (1363 posts) -

Bernie and Kamala would be a strong ticket.

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#70 Posted by Horgen (120155 posts) -

Who will most likely loose to Trump?

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#71 Posted by MosquitoBaby (77 posts) -

Sanders, absolutely destroyed in the Fox News town hall debate. While Biden was up in the early polls, now Sanders has taken the lead. Even if Biden announces I feel like his centrist views aren't going to be aligned with the whole of the democratic base.

The fact is the democratic party is adopting a socialist platform. That's what a good portion of the base wants, also most Americans want medicare for all in a recent poll (2 out of every 3). I think Sanders would do well against Trump, it will be close but he's kind of the democratic Trump. He fires up the base.

Avatar image for LJS9502_basic
#72 Posted by LJS9502_basic (166338 posts) -

@mosquitobaby said:

Sanders, absolutely destroyed in the Fox News town hall debate. While Biden was up in the early polls, now Sanders has taken the lead. Even if Biden announces I feel like his centrist views aren't going to be aligned with the whole of the democratic base.

The fact is the democratic party is adopting a socialist platform. That's what a good portion of the base wants, also most Americans want medicare for all in a recent poll (2 out of every 3). I think Sanders would do well against Trump, it will be close but he's kind of the democratic Trump. He fires up the base.

The Democratic base isn't socialist and thinking that will only lead to another loss.

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#73 Posted by MosquitoBaby (77 posts) -

@jeezers said:

Kamala Harris

Establishment and can pull the progressives because shes not white or male

I would say bernie but the DNC already cheated him once so I doubt they will let him win this time

If the DNC wants a massive rebellion and guaranteed to get Trump re-elected, don't make the same mistake twice. A lot of Sanders supporters abandoned Hillary, downright didn't vote because of the cheats, if it happens this time... oh boy. There will be chaos. Especially with him being the frontrunner.

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#74 Edited by MosquitoBaby (77 posts) -

@LJS9502_basic said:
@mosquitobaby said:

Sanders, absolutely destroyed in the Fox News town hall debate. While Biden was up in the early polls, now Sanders has taken the lead. Even if Biden announces I feel like his centrist views aren't going to be aligned with the whole of the democratic base.

The fact is the democratic party is adopting a socialist platform. That's what a good portion of the base wants, also most Americans want medicare for all in a recent poll (2 out of every 3). I think Sanders would do well against Trump, it will be close but he's kind of the democratic Trump. He fires up the base.

The Democratic base isn't socialist and thinking that will only lead to another loss.

I didn't say they are socialists, I said they are adopting the platform. In a recent poll they embrace the green deal, medicare for all, free tuition, 70% tax rate for the rich, etc.

A lot of what Sanders proposed in 2016, is pretty much being adapoted by the party, hence why almost all candidates running are progressives that also embrace those policies. Hence why Sanders is destroying in the polls everyone except Biden (and now he's above). In addition to making a lot more money in fundraising < note without corporate backing, just grassroots.

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#75 Edited by LJS9502_basic (166338 posts) -

@mosquitobaby said:

I didn't say they are socialists, I said they are adopting the platform. In a recent poll they embrace the green deal, medicare for all, free tuition, 70% tax rate for the rich, etc.

A lot of what Sanders proposed in 2016, is pretty much being adapoted by the party, hence why almost all candidates running are progressives that also embrace those policies. Hence why Sanders is destroying in the polls everyone except Biden (and now he's above). In addition to making a lot more money in fundraising < note without corporate backing, just grassroots.

And yet he wasn't the winner just a couple years ago. He's also not the only one running on some of those issues. Nonetheless we need to stop electing old men to the position. Should not be allowed to run past 65.

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#76 Edited by MosquitoBaby (77 posts) -

@LJS9502_basic said:
@mosquitobaby said:

I didn't say they are socialists, I said they are adopting the platform. In a recent poll they embrace the green deal, medicare for all, free tuition, 70% tax rate for the rich, etc.

A lot of what Sanders proposed in 2016, is pretty much being adapoted by the party, hence why almost all candidates running are progressives that also embrace those policies. Hence why Sanders is destroying in the polls everyone except Biden (and now he's above). In addition to making a lot more money in fundraising < note without corporate backing, just grassroots.

And yet he wasn't the winner just a couple years ago. He's also not the only one running on some of those issues. Nonetheless we need to stop electing old men to the position. Should not be allowed to run past 65.

Don't be daft. Of course he wasn't a winner, he was not as popular as Clinton in 2016. The party hadn't adopted or cared for universal healthcare, free tuition, etc..

And while you may say he's not the only one running on those issues, he's perceived as the father of those issues for the party. Hence why he's got a 31% polling as of late. Fact is, it's not like his support has gone down, unlike Biden, his popularity is increasing by the minute. His fundraising numbers are exploding as well.

I honestly don't care if you're old or young. I care about the person and his policies. That's a democracy. To say someone who's 65 can't run is very undemocratic.

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#77 Edited by FireEmblem_Man (19570 posts) -

@Master_Live: damn, did bot expect Andrew Yang to grow and surpass Elizabeth Warren