Poll #1: Who is going to win the 2020 Democratic primary?

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Posted by Master_Live (19378 posts) 1 month, 13 days ago

Poll: Poll #1: Who is going to win the 2020 Democratic primary? (48 votes)

Joe Biden 29%
Cory Booker 2%
Pete Buttigieg 0%
Julian Castro 0%
John Delaney 0%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%
Mike Gravel 0%
Kamala Harris 8%
John Hickenlooper 0%
Jay Inslee 0%
Amy Klobuchar 0%
Wayne Messam 0%
Beto O'Rourke 6%
Tim Ryan 0%
Bernie Sanders 40%
Eric Swalwell 0%
Elizabeth Warren 4%
Marianne Williamson 0%
Andrew Yang 8%

I did this kind of poll during the 2016 cycle and unlike that occasion, in which I let my personal bias interfere by not including Donald J. Trump in the first poll since I thought his candidacy was a joke, I have included all the "major" candidates that have declare their intention to run for the presidency or have created an exploratory committee + Joe Biden (which hasn't done either).

The question is simple: Who do you think will win the 2020 Democratic presidential primary?

Not who do you want to win it, but who will win. But of course, you are more than welcome to share your preferred candidate.

I will run this poll from time to time to see how our predictions change.

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#1 Posted by Master_Live (19378 posts) -

I think Bernie Sanders is the favorite, he is polling well (at the top or near top of nearly all the credible polls so far), he probably has the most loyal following, has raised the most (or 2nd most) money so far, and has wide name recognition.

2nd would be Joe Biden. He is polling well, has the credentials to be a credible candidate and has wide name recognition.

I might discuss the others on a later post.

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#2 Posted by hrt_rulz01 (18691 posts) -

I'm not American, but I hope it's Bernie Sanders.

Question for you Americans on here that know politics, what are the chances that Bernie actually becomes President? Is it a realistic possibility?

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#3 Edited by Master_Live (19378 posts) -

@hrt_rulz01: Well, I think that on a divided field (which will inevitably be culled eventually) he has a chance to win the Democratic nomination with a plurality (lets not think about a divided convention for now, which could be the single greatest TV event of my lifetime).

Once you get to the actual race I think it would become the most ugly Presidential race in modern U.S. history (or I guess since the last one). All the Bernie stuff with the communist dictators during the 80's etc. would come out. That plus the fact that at point Sanders plans for how to pay for (or lack there of) all his free stuff (health care, college, etc.) would come under scrutiny and the undeniable fact the middle class would pay more in taxes (with the argument that they would be better off with all new services they get) would be inescapable. Trump strategy would be to drive Sanders' negatives up since his stupidity won't allow him to run on the economy.

At that point, I think it comes down to the economy. If the economy is doing well Trump will be reelected over a Sanders candidacy, if not Bernie will win.

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#4 Posted by hrt_rulz01 (18691 posts) -

@Master_Live: Hmmm interesting. I hope he can do it... but I'm sceptical.

Imagine if Trump actually gets re-elected... Omfg.

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#5 Posted by ComeOnMan (166 posts) -

Donald Trump

Avatar image for Nuck81
#6 Posted by Nuck81 (7431 posts) -

Sanders is terrible

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#7 Posted by texasgoldrush (12801 posts) -

I think people need to look out for Kamala Harris..............I think she may be the most complete candidate here. She is just struggling with recognition right now. The true race hasn't started though.

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#8 Posted by texasgoldrush (12801 posts) -

@hrt_rulz01 said:

@Master_Live: Hmmm interesting. I hope he can do it... but I'm sceptical.

Imagine if Trump actually gets re-elected... Omfg.

Sanders polls well against Trump actually.

And he polled better than Clinton against Trump in 2016.

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#9 Posted by jcrame10 (5029 posts) -

I like Julian Castro but he has no chance.

It’ll either be Biden or Sanders

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#10 Edited by KungfuKitten (26418 posts) -

Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard are the candidates that interest me the most so far and it feels like they are garnering quite some support because of the MSM turning against them, as is tradition. ^ I haven't checked out Kamala Harris yet.

We need more interviews like this one:

Loading Video...

If you find really good interviews/talks like this for any of the other candidates please post them! I love hearing more in-depth talks about their policies and especially if the person asking the questions offers criticism without odd edits and cuts due to time restraint. Sadly these types of interviews seem rare in the USA.

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#11 Posted by Serraph105 (33662 posts) -

Regardless of who I want it to be, my money is on Biden winning the nomination. Biden is polling higher than any other candidate, and he's beating Trump in the polls and I think Dems will want to support anyone who can beat Trump and that will be the first thing on most people's minds.

My second guess is that it will be Bernie because people love him. Personally I think we would get better policies out of Bernie and ones that would actually make the base happy. That said, I really would prefer it to be Cory Booker over anyone else, but I've basically heard nothing about him that's hit the mainstream news since he announced that he was running and that's sort of a bad omen for gaining popularity.

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#12 Edited by KungfuKitten (26418 posts) -

@Serraph105: Don't worry too much about the media portrayals. The trust in USA MSM has never been this low before. Of course they are still going to play a part (and are definitely playing favorites) but I bet if you could chart their influence on the past 20 or so elections, they are going to beat the lowest point on that chart in 2020. You could say that in the last election the MSM had the quite the opposite effect of what they wanted. I guess in that sense they did have a big influence. I think this is going to be an election where the internet will just dominate the MSM. This is just guesswork of course. But I also feel that for the 2020 elections, more Americans than ever before will put the time into getting to know all the candidates. I think anyone who won't get the coverage in the MSM is still going to be known by a lot of American voters.

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#13 Edited by Nuck81 (7431 posts) -

@texasgoldrush: Harris is almost too smart to be president.

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#14 Posted by texasgoldrush (12801 posts) -

@Serraph105 said:

Regardless of who I want it to be, my money is on Biden winning the nomination. Biden is polling higher than any other candidate, and he's beating Trump in the polls and I think Dems will want to support anyone who can beat Trump and that will be the first thing on most people's minds.

My second guess is that it will be Bernie because people love him. Personally I think we would get better policies out of Bernie and ones that would actually make the base happy. That said, I really would prefer it to be Cory Booker over anyone else, but I've basically heard nothing about him that's hit the mainstream news since he announced that he was running and that's sort of a bad omen for gaining popularity.

I think once Biden gets in, we will find out why he has never been the nominee. He cannot handle attacks and he is a gaffe machine. He also has a long record that others in the race will attack heavily, and his refusal to apologize for his behavior with women could hurt in the long run. Biden polls well because he is not in yet.

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#15 Edited by vl4d_l3nin (1801 posts) -

I think it all depends with what is in the Mueller report and the MSM. If the reports a dud, MSM ratings are going to drop, aside from Fox News. Even if that's not the case, the MSM is still the biggest donor to the Trump campaign, they just donate airtime instead of dollars.

Yang seems to be the only one with a decent online presence. That's where the Dems need to be. Ya girl AOC understands that.

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#16 Posted by vl4d_l3nin (1801 posts) -
@texasgoldrush said:

I think once Biden gets in, we will find out why he has never been the nominee. He cannot handle attacks and he is a gaffe machine. He also has a long record that others in the race will attack heavily, and his refusal to apologize for his behavior with women could hurt in the long run. Biden polls well because he is not in yet.

Lots of people are overlooking that. Trumps most vulnerable demographic is suburban women, and it has little to do with his policy, and more to do with his disgusting demeanor.

If Biden gets the nomination, I'm going to feel genuinely bad for women in 2020.

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#17 Edited by warmblur (2147 posts) -

Hopefully Bernie he seems the most progressive out of all of them it seems.

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#18 Posted by Serraph105 (33662 posts) -
@vl4d_l3nin said:

I think it all depends with what is in the Mueller report and the MSM. If the reports a dud, MSM ratings are going to drop, aside from Fox News. Even if that's not the case, the MSM is still the biggest donor to the Trump campaign, they just donate airtime instead of dollars.

Yang seems to be the only one with a decent online presence. That's where the Dems need to be. Ya girl AOC understands that.

It doesn't matter what's in the Mueller report. Trump said he was completely exonerated and that's who and what you and his supporters will continue to believe.

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#19 Posted by Jacanuk (18261 posts) -

Has Biden announced yet? :) /sarcasm

But Biden is the top favourite to win, Sanders is a close second but I truly fear for America if he manages to beat Trump and become president, get ready for a ton of executive orders which have to be tested in court.

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#20 Posted by Serraph105 (33662 posts) -

@Jacanuk said:

Has Biden announced yet? :) /sarcasm

But Biden is the top favourite to win, Sanders is a close second but I truly fear for America if he manages to beat Trump and become president, get ready for a ton of executive orders which have to be tested in court.

But that's already happening under Trump.

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#21 Posted by vl4d_l3nin (1801 posts) -

@Serraph105: Very true, but that wasn't the point. Dems aren't going to touch Trumps base. What I'm trying to say is that if there is nothing substantial in the report, trust in the media will bottom out, even with people on the left. Any candidate the media tries to shill for will be in vain.

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#22 Posted by Jacanuk (18261 posts) -
@Serraph105 said:
@Jacanuk said:

Has Biden announced yet? :) /sarcasm

But Biden is the top favourite to win, Sanders is a close second but I truly fear for America if he manages to beat Trump and become president, get ready for a ton of executive orders which have to be tested in court.

But that's already happening under Trump.

You do know that Trump has not even signed half of what Obama did right? and not even 1/3 of Clinton and Bush.

So what was your point? because my point was that if Sanders become president he will instantly within the first-month reach levels that no other president before him has, and they will all be for socialist agendas which will destroy America.

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#23 Posted by LJS9502_basic (166340 posts) -

@texasgoldrush said:
@Serraph105 said:

Regardless of who I want it to be, my money is on Biden winning the nomination. Biden is polling higher than any other candidate, and he's beating Trump in the polls and I think Dems will want to support anyone who can beat Trump and that will be the first thing on most people's minds.

My second guess is that it will be Bernie because people love him. Personally I think we would get better policies out of Bernie and ones that would actually make the base happy. That said, I really would prefer it to be Cory Booker over anyone else, but I've basically heard nothing about him that's hit the mainstream news since he announced that he was running and that's sort of a bad omen for gaining popularity.

I think once Biden gets in, we will find out why he has never been the nominee. He cannot handle attacks and he is a gaffe machine. He also has a long record that others in the race will attack heavily, and his refusal to apologize for his behavior with women could hurt in the long run. Biden polls well because he is not in yet.

Right because trump was held accountable.......oh wait......

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#24 Posted by texasgoldrush (12801 posts) -

@vl4d_l3nin said:
@texasgoldrush said:

I think once Biden gets in, we will find out why he has never been the nominee. He cannot handle attacks and he is a gaffe machine. He also has a long record that others in the race will attack heavily, and his refusal to apologize for his behavior with women could hurt in the long run. Biden polls well because he is not in yet.

Lots of people are overlooking that. Trumps most vulnerable demographic is suburban women, and it has little to do with his policy, and more to do with his disgusting demeanor.

If Biden gets the nomination, I'm going to feel genuinely bad for women in 2020.

He has also said stupid things about millennials which can be costly as well.

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#25 Posted by Serraph105 (33662 posts) -

@Jacanuk said:
@Serraph105 said:
@Jacanuk said:

Has Biden announced yet? :) /sarcasm

But Biden is the top favourite to win, Sanders is a close second but I truly fear for America if he manages to beat Trump and become president, get ready for a ton of executive orders which have to be tested in court.

But that's already happening under Trump.

You do know that Trump has not even signed half of what Obama did right? and not even 1/3 of Clinton and Bush.

So what was your point? because my point was that if Sanders become president he will instantly within the first-month reach levels that no other president before him has, and they will all be for socialist agendas which will destroy America.

My point is that we have a ton of executive orders signed by Trump that are being tested in court, and you don't seem to be concerned about it, but for some reason if Bernie were to do the same it would suddenly be bad.

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#26 Edited by texasgoldrush (12801 posts) -

@vl4d_l3nin said:

I think it all depends with what is in the Mueller report and the MSM. If the reports a dud, MSM ratings are going to drop, aside from Fox News. Even if that's not the case, the MSM is still the biggest donor to the Trump campaign, they just donate airtime instead of dollars.

Yang seems to be the only one with a decent online presence. That's where the Dems need to be. Ya girl AOC understands that.

AOC will be a very interesting factor in this race and her not endorsing anyone right now is extremely smart. 5 of the candidates cosponsor her Green New Deal in the Senate (and a 6th supports). The candidates also have been courting her I believe.

I definitely think she will not endorse Biden in the primaries and may try to hinder his campaign. I think she could also do an "issues tour" to try and get people to back policies the more progressive candidates support. She being from the working class is a huge bonus, which political commentators have failed to recognize that aspect well.

A Sanders, Harris, or a Warren would boost her power immensely, so multiple candidates help her cause, so she should not endorse any candidates unless they go "one on one" with Biden.

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#27 Posted by Jacanuk (18261 posts) -
@Serraph105 said:

My point is that we have a ton of executive orders signed by Trump that are being tested in court, and you don't seem to be concerned about it, but for some reason if Bernie were to do the same it would suddenly be bad.

Of course, i am concerned about wasting the courts time and having judges who are deciding cases out of political reasons and not legal, like the latest one from Alaska

But also Trump has not taken any steps that affect America badly so far. Sanders would literally destroy the foundation of America´s liberties.

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#28 Posted by texasgoldrush (12801 posts) -

@LJS9502_basic said:
@texasgoldrush said:
@Serraph105 said:

Regardless of who I want it to be, my money is on Biden winning the nomination. Biden is polling higher than any other candidate, and he's beating Trump in the polls and I think Dems will want to support anyone who can beat Trump and that will be the first thing on most people's minds.

My second guess is that it will be Bernie because people love him. Personally I think we would get better policies out of Bernie and ones that would actually make the base happy. That said, I really would prefer it to be Cory Booker over anyone else, but I've basically heard nothing about him that's hit the mainstream news since he announced that he was running and that's sort of a bad omen for gaining popularity.

I think once Biden gets in, we will find out why he has never been the nominee. He cannot handle attacks and he is a gaffe machine. He also has a long record that others in the race will attack heavily, and his refusal to apologize for his behavior with women could hurt in the long run. Biden polls well because he is not in yet.

Right because trump was held accountable.......oh wait......

But in a Dem primary, he could be.

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#29 Posted by watercrack445 (1444 posts) -

I think Joe Biden will win the primary and then the presidential election. Joe Biden and Bernie will be each other throats in votes but eventually Joe Biden will win and I think he has a better chance against Trump than Sanders does. I don't people are ready for Sanders yet, maybe in 2024 or 2028 election. People tend to change slowly throughout history but with social media the change is happening faster.

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#30 Posted by Jacanuk (18261 posts) -
@watercrack445 said:

I think Joe Biden will win the primary and then the presidential election. Joe Biden and Bernie will be each other throats in votes but eventually Joe Biden will win and I think he has a better chance against Trump than Sanders does. I don't people are ready for Sanders yet, maybe in 2024 or 2028 election. People tend to change slowly throughout history but with social media the change is happening faster.

Think you forget how old Sanders is, there will be no run from Sanders in 2024 and he will be 90 in 2028

But otherwise, I agree, Sanders and Biden will be the two main candidates and we will see a repeat of Hilliary vs Sanders, Sanders will appeal to the progressives but will not get the groups that matter, Independents and moderate Democrats.

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#31 Posted by Nuck81 (7431 posts) -

@Jacanuk: did this Dingle Berry just say Trump has signed half of the executive orders that Obama did?

Avatar image for Jacanuk
#32 Edited by Jacanuk (18261 posts) -
@Nuck81 said:

@Jacanuk: did this Dingle Berry just say Trump has signed half of the executive orders that Obama did?

Prove me wrong Mr. Forum Troll.

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#33 Edited by Nuck81 (7431 posts) -

@Jacanuk: you do understand that obama was president for 8 years and Trump has been president for 2 1/2?

Trump is averaging 46 EOs a year. Obama averaged 35.

Dingleberry

Avatar image for Jacanuk
#34 Posted by Jacanuk (18261 posts) -
@Nuck81 said:

@Jacanuk: you do understand that obama was president for 8 years and Trump has been president for 2 1/2?

Trump is averaging 46 EOs a year. Obama averaged 35.

Dingleberry

Nice trolling there

Nowhere did anyone specify the period and so far if we only take the first term, Obama is actually level with Trump,

Avatar image for Nuck81
#35 Posted by Nuck81 (7431 posts) -

@Jacanuk: you say some stupid shit you made up, get called out on it. Then try to spin your way out of it.

Lesson of the day for Dingle berries.

Don't make stupid shit up

Avatar image for Jacanuk
#36 Posted by Jacanuk (18261 posts) -
@Nuck81 said:

@Jacanuk: you say some stupid shit you made up, get called out on it. Then try to spin your way out of it.

Lesson of the day for Dingle berries.

Don't make stupid shit up

LOL funny little troll.

You have so far not made one single actual valid argument, but nice spin

Also what happened to your main profile? got locked out or did you just decide to jump on that one.

Avatar image for Nuck81
#37 Posted by Nuck81 (7431 posts) -

@Jacanuk: I've been a member of this forum since before you had peach fuzz on your acorns little man.

Lesson you should learn, don't make stupid shit up.

I'll make you a bet dingleberry. I bet that I've been a member longer than you have. If I have the mods can ban your IP. If not then they can ban mine.

How bout that little man?

Avatar image for Jacanuk
#38 Posted by Jacanuk (18261 posts) -
@Nuck81 said:

@Jacanuk: I've been a member of this forum since before you had peach fuzz on your acorns little man.

Lesson you should learn, don't make stupid shit up.

I'll make you a bet dingleberry. I bet that I've been a member longer than you have. If I have the mods can ban your IP. If not then they can ban mine.

How bout that little man?

You don´t stop making funny little comments do you?

Also nowhere is my statement inaccurate

But have fun trolling.

Avatar image for Nuck81
#39 Posted by Nuck81 (7431 posts) -

@Jacanuk: that's what I thought. Mommy is calling you for dinner peach fuzz

Avatar image for Jacanuk
#40 Posted by Jacanuk (18261 posts) -

@Nuck81: And you just can´t stop

Again 276 is a bigger number than 107 just for the record.

Avatar image for mattbbpl
#41 Edited by mattbbpl (16988 posts) -

@Nuck81 said:

@Jacanuk: did this Dingle Berry just say Trump has signed half of the executive orders that Obama did?

@Nuck81 said:

@Jacanuk: you do understand that obama was president for 8 years and Trump has been president for 2 1/2?

Trump is averaging 46 EOs a year. Obama averaged 35.

@Jacanuk said:

@Nuck81: And you just can´t stop

Again 276 is a bigger number than 107 just for the record.

This disingenuous argument is worth highlighting.

Avatar image for Jacanuk
#42 Posted by Jacanuk (18261 posts) -

@mattbbpl: Funny Matt

But please point out where anyone before the trolling comment ever mentions a specific period.

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#43 Posted by SOedipus (11397 posts) -

Andrew Yang seems interesting. I hope he wins but I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't. Probably Bernie *yawn*

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#44 Posted by HoolaHoopMan (10603 posts) -

Not sure since everything could change at a moments notice. Bernie would be my bet given his fundraising and name recognition. But then again I'm not good at primary predictions.

Avatar image for Nuck81
#45 Posted by Nuck81 (7431 posts) -

@HoolaHoopMan: Sanders needs to GTFO.

Outliers are fine in congressional seats, but we need strong centrist moderates for our countries leadership.

We need both conservative and liberal moderates running the country.

Avatar image for nintendoboy16
#46 Posted by nintendoboy16 (36059 posts) -

Hard to tell...

Avatar image for Gaming-Planet
#47 Posted by Gaming-Planet (19919 posts) -

Boomers will vote for Joe Biden.

Millennials will vote Bernie Sanders.

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#48 Posted by texasgoldrush (12801 posts) -

@Nuck81 said:

@HoolaHoopMan: Sanders needs to GTFO.

Outliers are fine in congressional seats, but we need strong centrist moderates for our countries leadership.

We need both conservative and liberal moderates running the country.

Moderates are responsible for Trumps election, Brexit, and the yellow vest protests in France.

Centrism is the philosophy of "eh".

Avatar image for theone86
#49 Posted by theone86 (22417 posts) -
@hrt_rulz01 said:

I'm not American, but I hope it's Bernie Sanders.

Question for you Americans on here that know politics, what are the chances that Bernie actually becomes President? Is it a realistic possibility?

There are a lot of people who say that if Bernie had won the primary there would have been a lot more Democratic turnout, especially from people who don't usually vote (read: mostly poor). I can say it's a pretty safe bet to say they're overestimating how much turnout would increase, but by how much is the question. Would it be by enough to swing over Trump states? I doubt it, but I could be wrong.

I think it will also be interesting to see, if Bernie does lose the primary to someone like Elizabeth Warren, will he throw the same sort of fit he did over Hillary? I think that Bernie has about as even a chance of winning the presidency as a lot of these others IF, after losing the primary, he throws his support behind them. If he doesn't then I think it could generate enough disaffection to derail whatever candidate beats him out in the primary. He's much more ideologically aligned with someone like Warren. I would be somewhat surprised to see him give her the same cold shoulder he did with Hillary, but not completely surprised.

Short answer, though, I think almost everyone has a good chance to beat Trump. He's got massively low approval ratings, around 40% of the country absolutely hates him, he's got barely any legislative accomplishments and the ones he does have are pretty unpopular, and he keeps pursuing policies that alienate even the people who supported him in the 2016 election (family separation). If you win the Democratic primary, I think you're the favorite to win the election (though I don't think Bernie will). There are some wild cards, though, like third party candidates. Even though the entire country seems to be against it, Howard Schulz still seems dead-set on pursuing a presidential run, and I think he probably will if someone like Bernie wins the nomination. It's really hard to predict if him running would be enough to cost a candidate Bernie the election.

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#50 Posted by theone86 (22417 posts) -
@Master_Live said:

@hrt_rulz01: Well, I think that on a divided field (which will inevitably be culled eventually) he has a chance to win the Democratic nomination with a plurality (lets not think about a divided convention for now, which could be the single greatest TV event of my lifetime).

Once you get to the actual race I think it would become the most ugly Presidential race in modern U.S. history (or I guess since the last one). All the Bernie stuff with the communist dictators during the 80's etc. would come out. That plus the fact that at point Sanders plans for how to pay for (or lack there of) all his free stuff (health care, college, etc.) would come under scrutiny and the undeniable fact the middle class would pay more in taxes (with the argument that they would be better off with all new services they get) would be inescapable. Trump strategy would be to drive Sanders' negatives up since his stupidity won't allow him to run on the economy.

At that point, I think it comes down to the economy. If the economy is doing well Trump will be reelected over a Sanders candidacy, if not Bernie will win.

LOL, free stuff. Trump drives up the deficit for tax cuts on the wealthy and a wall we don't need (that will conveniently make connected contractors quite rich) and you conservatives say we're the ones trying to give away free stuff. Between you and Jac, we're going to need a fleet of bulldozers to deal with all the conservative bullshit in this thread.