[QUOTE="bobbo"]It's not about ignorance, it's about how some of you use NPD as your bible. I have never questioned that NPD provide the most accurate data for the US. What i have been queationing is how accurarte those numbers really are. You are one of the guys that take it for granted that their margine of error is close to 1%...... And you call me gullible and ignorant?mjarantilla
No one treats it as the Bible. Everyone does, however, treat it as the ONLY source of sales data that's even remotely reliable. And their margins of error ARE close to 1%, so YES, I definitely call you gullible and ignorant. Besides, anyone who's taken statistics knows that it's never as simple as "margin of error = 1%." There's confidence levels and standard deviations and distribution curves.
I have never said that vgchartz are dead on. What i say , and their numbers back me up, is that they are close enough to indicate sales trends in the market. bobbo
Really, so predicting 547,000 when the actual number is 251,000 is close enough for you?
They also adjust their numbers when needed to based upon official shipment numbers and from time to time when proven wrong (if that is even possible) by another source like NPD.bobbo
That's why I never object to VGChartz being used for HISTORICAL data, and I don't know very many people who would object to that sort of usage, either. It's their WEEKLY data that everyone condemns.
You keep shouting FAKE FAKE FAKE all over the place. Have you any proof to back up that statement? Is your proof that they on occation get a game or console number way off NPD's estimates?bobbo
ON OCCASION????
EVERY MONTH they are way off on at least one, usually two or three consoles, and the MAJORITY of their software predictions are way, WAAAY off. For Chrissakes, you have a serious case of delusions if you think that VGChartz gets it wrong only "on occasion."
Since you claim that they have gotten worse over the last 6 months, i take it you don't visit vgchartz to often. The improvments made to the site overall are huge.bobbo
I look at the comparisons every month, and every month I still see the huge discrepancies between VGChartz and NPD. Every month, I see that maybe four or five of the seven consoles' sales they get within 20%, but the others they get far off base. And every month, I see that thhere's no pattern to WHICH console's sales they get completely wrong.
I've shown already two months of hard evidence that VGChartz gets terrible accuracy. Why do YOU never post VGChartz-NPD comparisons yourself?
People like you always bring up their worst mistakes. Like the DS January one. Now...if they didn't correct their error, then you might have a point. bobbo
Again, I have no problem with their HISTORICAL data. It's always their CURRENT data that's damning. Whenever a dupe like you posts one of their "Weekly US Sales" predictions, THAT is when I have a problem with it.
As for their worst mistake, DS in January was their worst of the last few months, but as I said, it is by no means their only major mistake:
February 2008: They overestimate the Wii by over 130,000 units (NPD: 432k, +30%), underestimate the PS2 by 70,000 units (NPD: 351k. -20%), overestimate the Xbox 360 by 100,000 units (NPD: 254k, +39%), and overestmate the PS3 by 70,000 units (NPD: 280k, +25%).
January 2008: They overestimate the DS by almost 300,000 units (NPD: 251k, +119%), underestimate the PS3 by 68,000 units (NPD: 269k, -25%), and overestimate the 360 by 50,000 units (NPD: 230k, +22%).
December 2007: They overestimate the DS by over 400,000 units (NPD: 2.4mil, +17%), overestimate the Wii by over 300,000 (NPD: 1.3mil, +23%), and overestimate the PS2 and PSP by 100,000 units (NPD: 1.1mil PS2, 1mil PSP, +10% each)
November 2007: They underestimate the PSP by 100,000 units (NPD: 567k, +18%). This was their best month by far, and the only good month I've found.
October 2007: They overestimate the 360 by 200,000 units (NPD: 366k, +54%) and overestimate the DS by 100,000 units (NPD: 458k, 22%)
September 2007: They overestimate the DS by 130,000 units (NPD: 495k, +26%), overestimate the PS3 by 50,000 units (NPD: 119k, +42%), overestimate the PSP by 60,000 units (284k, +21%), and overestimate the PS2 by 75,000 units (NPD: 215k, +35%)
August 2007: They overestimate the DS by 60,000 units (NPD: 383k, +16%), overestimate the PSP by 45,000 units (NPD: 151k, +30%), and overestimate the PS3 by 50,000 units (NPD: 130k, +39%)
Even if you count Canada and Mexico, both of which account for only 10% of all North American sales, that still leaves many, MANY mistakes in just the last six months that exceed a 20% margin of error, many of which are made predicting high selling consoles (the DS, the Wii, the 360 during Halo 3 month), and that's mind-numbingly massive in terms of statistics.
But since they adjusted the numbers when realising their mistake, then what's the problem?bobbo
If you don't have a problem with VGChartz correcting their data, then why even support their weekly numbers? Why not just go straight to the source that VGChartz itself uses, i.e. NPD? Do you REALLY need to have a weekly fix, even if it's DEAD WRONG?
I still don't get your anger towards vgchartz or gamers like me that use them as one of many sources when following sales of software and hardware.bobbo
Because it's NOT A SOURCE. It's a fansite that PRETENDS TO BE A SOURCE.
The best part of vgchartz is that they follow all major regions and give us an overall estimate for worldwide sales. Both for games and hardware. If some numbers are proven false, they correct them.bobbo
They should ONLY compile data from reputable sources. They should NOT make their own predictions. VGChartz does this for their historical data, so, for the hundredth time (although you will probably ignore this statement again), I have no problem with their historical data.
In my opinion they do us gamers a great service with limited means. If they mangage to keep going, which should be benefitial for all parties....exept for NPD off course, they will continue to improve. That is a good thing.bobbo
They have no obligation to improve. In fact, you have shown me NO evidence at all besides your own word that VGChartz has improved. Meanwhile, in EVERY thread I thrash you around in, I've ALWAYS provided HARD NUMBERS from both VGChartz and NPD directly showing how they have NOT improved.
You still havent said anything in your arguments about why you want them to fail and dissapear. Which again leads me to believe that you work for the NPD, and fear the competition. Someone doing what you , if you work there, are doing for free, might scare you into trashing them left and right whenever the oppurtunity arises. And that is understandable.bobbo
I don't want them to disappear. I want them to do what they do well, which is COMPILING, not predicting.
And you keep acting like VGChartz is the underdog. Guess what? IT'S NOT. It's no more an underdog than an author who decided to pay to have his crappy book printed by a vanity publisher rather than face rejection by a real publisher.
VGChartz is an AMATEUR FANSITE that pretends to provide a service when all it does is mislead its visitors into believing its false claims. It will NEVER compete with NPD.
If you are a gamer like me, i just can't see any reason not to support what they are trying to do. And that is to provide us with worldwide estimated sales numbers for hardware and software every week. Oh, and that without chargeing anyone anything.....bobbo
They don't charge anything because they make all their money through ad revenue and nothing else. That means that they have no obligation to provide anything resembling reliable information. And guess what? THEY DON'T provide reliable information. Not until NPD comes along and corrects them.
So cheer up and get off your high horse....the one you appear to be riding blindfolded sponsered by NPD.....In case you have forgotten, there is a world outside America. They buy consoles and games to.....bobbo
I'M on a high horse? I'm backed by FACT, little boy. so STFU and listen and remember for once.
You're the one with pretenses for moral superiority by making like VGChartz is some underdog competitor that should be given a chance. Never mind that they don't provide reliable service. Never mind that they purposefully mislead visitors on their site into thinking that they employ legitimate analysis techniques. Never mind that they proclaim their predictions to be "previews of NPD," as if they had some claim to officiality.
Tell me a better source that try estimate or collect all that worldwide data on a weekly..or even monthly basis?bobbo
There are none, which is why I like using VGChartz for COMPILED information. But NOT their predictions.
So, for the hundred and second time: VGChartz = good for COMPILED, HISTORICAL information. VGChartz = terrible for weekly predictions.
Do you have the memory of a goldfish or something? Because you always seem to forget EVERYTHING I say that completely refutes every single point you make.
Lol :-) Always funny to be called little boy when you are 35 years old , 6 foot 4 and 220 pounds of norwegian viking steel he he....
However somewhere in your rant there is something usable.
1 : We agree that vgchartz is great for historical data.
2 : We disagree about how accurate NPD really is. I know they are the best source for US numbers monthly. However without any competition no one knows how close they really get......hence no one knows how close vgchartz really get. So far i find NPD's estimates to be more trustworthy than vgchartz. No problem with that.
As i have said before, major chains are not covered but estimated by NPD. These chains have special customer demographics. Meaning more moms and dads and grampas and grandmas shop there. Hence different types and numbers of software are taken in by the store manager than in for instance a gamerspecialist store. Does NPD get the hardware and software shippment numbers of all games/consoles to these stores? Or are those estimated aswell along with the sellthrough data from these chains?
Do they estimate correct for Walmart, Toys 'r us (and others) with this in mind? Who knows. This is the reason why i find it abit wierd that one can use one estimater (no matter how good) as solid proof or fact or evidence that another one is getting it wrong.
3 : You really do sit on a high horse :-)
4 : I like weekly numbers from all 3 regions. I hope they continue to deliver them. I hope that over time the number of stores around the world providing them with data will continue to increase , thus increasiing their accuracy.
5 : You claim their estimates are fake. The evidence you use are numbers from another (highly respected, i'll give you that) estimator.
6 : In Japan they have 3 different firms tracking numbers. In the US you have 1. I always remain a sceptic when the provider of a service is a monopolist. There is nobody giving an alternate take on reality. So how do you really know how good they are?
7 : There is much anger in you. Be carefull ,the dark side might consume you lol .....;-)
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