bobbo's forum posts

Avatar image for bobbo
bobbo

370

Forum Posts

0

Wiki Points

0

Followers

Reviews: 0

User Lists: 0

#1 bobbo
Member since 2002 • 370 Posts

As everyone tends to keep saying the Wii is the weakest of the consoles in technical ability which is pretty obvious as it cannot play multi-platforms as of the likes of DMC(lawlz), burnout and so forth but the games which have been designed for it are yet to really push the console as of the likes of Mario Galaxy which i read somewhere pushed it like 1/3rd. When do you think (opinion) the Nintendo Wii will be pushed in technical ability?

Please no flaming, Lets keep it as civil as possible.

Dibdibdobdobo

I'd say about the time factor 5 releases their first wii game. In development now. Maybe we get some screens at E3?

Avatar image for bobbo
bobbo

370

Forum Posts

0

Wiki Points

0

Followers

Reviews: 0

User Lists: 0

#2 bobbo
Member since 2002 • 370 Posts

[QUOTE="bobbo"]Lol :-) Always funny to be called little boy when you are 35 years old , 6 foot 4 and 220 pounds of norwegian viking steel he he....mjarantilla

I'm not talking about your physical maturity.

However somewhere in your rant there is something usable.

1 : We agree that vgchartz is great for historical data.bobbo

FINALLY you hear me.

2 : We disagree about how accurate NPD really is. I know they are the best source for US numbers monthly. However without any competition no one knows how close they really get......hence no one knows how close vgchartz really get. So far i find NPD's estimates to be more trustworthy than vgchartz. No problem with that.bobbo

Well, your deafness returns.

No one knows how close ANYONE gets for certain, because it's impossible. That's why the science of statistics exists. VGChartz PRETENDS to use statistics, but what they're using is their own brand of pseudoscience by acting as though their infinitesimally small samples can actually be accurate.

As i have said before, major chains are not covered but estimated by NPD. These chains have special customer demographics. Meaning more moms and dads and grampas and grandmas shop there. Hence different types and numbers of software are taken in by the store manager than in for instance a gamerspecialist store. Does NPD get the hardware and software shippment numbers of all games/consoles to these stores? Or are those estimated aswell along with the sellthrough data from these chains?bobbo

Then why does Wal-Mart, one of these "major chains", use NPD for their own sales tracking?

You are an incredibly naive person to think that NPD doesn't take those "special customer demographics" into account when they make their estimates.

And once again, you COMPLETELY IGNORE what I said about NPD conducting buyer surveys.

Do they estimate correct for Walmart, Toys 'r us (and others) with this in mind? Who knows. This is the reason why i find it abit wierd that one can use one estimater (no matter how good) as solid proof or fact or evidence that another one is getting it wrong.bobbo

OF COURSE THEY DO. My GOD, you're arrogant. They are a PROFESSIONAL MARKETING COMPANY. How can you, who continues to believe that VGChartz can actually compete with NPD, act like you know better, or even speculate that you know better?

3 : You really do sit on a high horse :-)bobbo

I never claimed otherwise. The difference is that I support my superior positions with HARD FACTS. You don't.

4 : I like weekly numbers from all 3 regions. I hope they continue to deliver them. I hope that over time the number of stores around the world providing them with data will continue to increase , thus increasiing their accuracy.bobbo

Stores do NOT provide them with data. They DO NOT get data from anyone other than from the small independent stores that would actually give them the time of day. How much MORE inaccurate is VGChartz because of that? How much MORE unreliable are they because of that? YOU never bother to answer that question, despite MONTH AFTER MONTH of PROVEN INCOMPETENCE by VGChartz.

5 : You claim their estimates are fake. The evidence you use are numbers from another (highly respected, i'll give you that) estimator.bobbo

No, my evidence comes from COMMON SENSE. No fansite can possibly hope to gather enough comprehensive data and compile it into a usable format in ONE WEEK.

For once, THINK about what you're saying.

6 : In Japan they have 3 different firms tracking numbers. In the US you have 1. I always remain a sceptic when the provider of a service is a monopolist. There is nobody giving an alternate take on reality. So how do you really know how good they are?bobbo

Wow, I was wrong. You're not just ignorant and you're not just naive. You just make up your own facts and fool yourself into thinking you're right. No wonder you like VGChartz. They do the same thing. Most people just assume that they aren't knowledgeable enough to know the competitors, but you ACTUALLY BELIEVE that there is only one company.

HERE are the NPD's top three competitors. If you don't recognize those names, then you're much worse off than I thought. If you don't recognize Hoover's itself, then you're hopeless.

To actually even consider that such an old and broad industry as market analysis would have only ONE player.... seriously, how stupid do you think companies are? How stupid do you think PEOPLE are?

Well first....there is still much anger in you lol :-)

Secondly you write : "No one knows how close ANYONE gets for certain, because it's impossible. That's why the science of statistics exists. "

Now i believe it was Mark Twain that once said "there are three forms of lies, white lies, black lies and statistics"

The statistics are only as good as the data it is based upon. Can we agree on that? Of course there are other firms collecting data ,doing market analyzes and what not.( that was not what i meant.) Does anyone else but NPD release monthly sales numbers for the US for console hardware and software? (publically that is?) If so please tell me i would like to know who they are and check them out aswell.....

In Japan they have mediacreate, famitsu and if a recall correctly one more firm that track the console market for hardware and software. Follow them for awhile and you will see that they on occation release numbers that differ quite a bit.

Even though you cover 60 % off the market like NPD, they still need to estimate the rest. Whit no other source out there to my knowlage , (if you know of another source , feel free to enlighten me) how can we really be confident in their numbers?

To make things absolutely clear, i do believe that NPD numbers are mostly close to the truth. but the 1% accuracy claim...who controles that number? Is there someone else that can be used as comparison? All valid questions.

I hope that vgchartz can grow slowly steadily and gather more data from different stores over time from all types of retail to keep improving.

I think they are doing a great job with limited resources.

I think you and others are way to hard on them.

You say :

"No, my evidence comes from COMMON SENSE."

Pal, that is not evidence, that's sitting on your high horse. Claiming to have inner knowlage of how vgchartz work and how they produce their numbers.

You say :

"Stores do NOT provide them with data. They DO NOT get data from anyone other than from the small independent stores that would actually give them the time of day. How much MORE inaccurate is VGChartz because of that? How much MORE unreliable are they because of that? YOU never bother to answer that question, despite MONTH AFTER MONTH of PROVEN INCOMPETENCE by VGChartz."

Question to that is.... : I have no idea and neither do you.

I don't know their retail sources and neither do you. You don't have their data. If you had their data and knew statistics, then i'd listen to you. I'd be all ears. YOU DO NOT HAVE THAT DATA....All you have is NPD to compare them against. They are good, but how good? no one knows that either. Who controles NPD's data. Does anyone else track and releace numbers so we can do a comparison?

If your hard evidence is "it's impossible to make a weekly chart without cheating for such a small group of people" ,well then your so called evidence is at best hear say, and would have been thrown out of court....

Since you seem to know their sources and which retail that deliver data to them, care to mention them?

All you provide is your personal opinion, no facts. If you know the answers to some of the questions i have raised, please write them down for all to see instead of going personal calling me mentally immature, deaf, naive, ignorant,hopeless and arrogant (Did i get them all? ). It only reflects poorly back on you and make you look a lot less smart than i think you are ;-)

Avatar image for bobbo
bobbo

370

Forum Posts

0

Wiki Points

0

Followers

Reviews: 0

User Lists: 0

#3 bobbo
Member since 2002 • 370 Posts

[QUOTE="bobbo"]It's not about ignorance, it's about how some of you use NPD as your bible. I have never questioned that NPD provide the most accurate data for the US. What i have been queationing is how accurarte those numbers really are. You are one of the guys that take it for granted that their margine of error is close to 1%...... And you call me gullible and ignorant?mjarantilla

No one treats it as the Bible. Everyone does, however, treat it as the ONLY source of sales data that's even remotely reliable. And their margins of error ARE close to 1%, so YES, I definitely call you gullible and ignorant. Besides, anyone who's taken statistics knows that it's never as simple as "margin of error = 1%." There's confidence levels and standard deviations and distribution curves.

I have never said that vgchartz are dead on. What i say , and their numbers back me up, is that they are close enough to indicate sales trends in the market. bobbo

Really, so predicting 547,000 when the actual number is 251,000 is close enough for you?

They also adjust their numbers when needed to based upon official shipment numbers and from time to time when proven wrong (if that is even possible) by another source like NPD.bobbo

That's why I never object to VGChartz being used for HISTORICAL data, and I don't know very many people who would object to that sort of usage, either. It's their WEEKLY data that everyone condemns.

You keep shouting FAKE FAKE FAKE all over the place. Have you any proof to back up that statement? Is your proof that they on occation get a game or console number way off NPD's estimates?bobbo

ON OCCASION????

EVERY MONTH they are way off on at least one, usually two or three consoles, and the MAJORITY of their software predictions are way, WAAAY off. For Chrissakes, you have a serious case of delusions if you think that VGChartz gets it wrong only "on occasion."

Since you claim that they have gotten worse over the last 6 months, i take it you don't visit vgchartz to often. The improvments made to the site overall are huge.bobbo

I look at the comparisons every month, and every month I still see the huge discrepancies between VGChartz and NPD. Every month, I see that maybe four or five of the seven consoles' sales they get within 20%, but the others they get far off base. And every month, I see that thhere's no pattern to WHICH console's sales they get completely wrong.

I've shown already two months of hard evidence that VGChartz gets terrible accuracy. Why do YOU never post VGChartz-NPD comparisons yourself?

People like you always bring up their worst mistakes. Like the DS January one. Now...if they didn't correct their error, then you might have a point. bobbo

Again, I have no problem with their HISTORICAL data. It's always their CURRENT data that's damning. Whenever a dupe like you posts one of their "Weekly US Sales" predictions, THAT is when I have a problem with it.

As for their worst mistake, DS in January was their worst of the last few months, but as I said, it is by no means their only major mistake:

February 2008: They overestimate the Wii by over 130,000 units (NPD: 432k, +30%), underestimate the PS2 by 70,000 units (NPD: 351k. -20%), overestimate the Xbox 360 by 100,000 units (NPD: 254k, +39%), and overestmate the PS3 by 70,000 units (NPD: 280k, +25%).

January 2008: They overestimate the DS by almost 300,000 units (NPD: 251k, +119%), underestimate the PS3 by 68,000 units (NPD: 269k, -25%), and overestimate the 360 by 50,000 units (NPD: 230k, +22%).

December 2007: They overestimate the DS by over 400,000 units (NPD: 2.4mil, +17%), overestimate the Wii by over 300,000 (NPD: 1.3mil, +23%), and overestimate the PS2 and PSP by 100,000 units (NPD: 1.1mil PS2, 1mil PSP, +10% each)

November 2007: They underestimate the PSP by 100,000 units (NPD: 567k, +18%). This was their best month by far, and the only good month I've found.

October 2007: They overestimate the 360 by 200,000 units (NPD: 366k, +54%) and overestimate the DS by 100,000 units (NPD: 458k, 22%)

September 2007: They overestimate the DS by 130,000 units (NPD: 495k, +26%), overestimate the PS3 by 50,000 units (NPD: 119k, +42%), overestimate the PSP by 60,000 units (284k, +21%), and overestimate the PS2 by 75,000 units (NPD: 215k, +35%)

August 2007: They overestimate the DS by 60,000 units (NPD: 383k, +16%), overestimate the PSP by 45,000 units (NPD: 151k, +30%), and overestimate the PS3 by 50,000 units (NPD: 130k, +39%)

Even if you count Canada and Mexico, both of which account for only 10% of all North American sales, that still leaves many, MANY mistakes in just the last six months that exceed a 20% margin of error, many of which are made predicting high selling consoles (the DS, the Wii, the 360 during Halo 3 month), and that's mind-numbingly massive in terms of statistics.

But since they adjusted the numbers when realising their mistake, then what's the problem?bobbo

If you don't have a problem with VGChartz correcting their data, then why even support their weekly numbers? Why not just go straight to the source that VGChartz itself uses, i.e. NPD? Do you REALLY need to have a weekly fix, even if it's DEAD WRONG?

I still don't get your anger towards vgchartz or gamers like me that use them as one of many sources when following sales of software and hardware.bobbo

Because it's NOT A SOURCE. It's a fansite that PRETENDS TO BE A SOURCE.

The best part of vgchartz is that they follow all major regions and give us an overall estimate for worldwide sales. Both for games and hardware. If some numbers are proven false, they correct them.bobbo

They should ONLY compile data from reputable sources. They should NOT make their own predictions. VGChartz does this for their historical data, so, for the hundredth time (although you will probably ignore this statement again), I have no problem with their historical data.

In my opinion they do us gamers a great service with limited means. If they mangage to keep going, which should be benefitial for all parties....exept for NPD off course, they will continue to improve. That is a good thing.bobbo

They have no obligation to improve. In fact, you have shown me NO evidence at all besides your own word that VGChartz has improved. Meanwhile, in EVERY thread I thrash you around in, I've ALWAYS provided HARD NUMBERS from both VGChartz and NPD directly showing how they have NOT improved.

You still havent said anything in your arguments about why you want them to fail and dissapear. Which again leads me to believe that you work for the NPD, and fear the competition. Someone doing what you , if you work there, are doing for free, might scare you into trashing them left and right whenever the oppurtunity arises. And that is understandable.bobbo

I don't want them to disappear. I want them to do what they do well, which is COMPILING, not predicting.

And you keep acting like VGChartz is the underdog. Guess what? IT'S NOT. It's no more an underdog than an author who decided to pay to have his crappy book printed by a vanity publisher rather than face rejection by a real publisher.

VGChartz is an AMATEUR FANSITE that pretends to provide a service when all it does is mislead its visitors into believing its false claims. It will NEVER compete with NPD.

If you are a gamer like me, i just can't see any reason not to support what they are trying to do. And that is to provide us with worldwide estimated sales numbers for hardware and software every week. Oh, and that without chargeing anyone anything.....bobbo

They don't charge anything because they make all their money through ad revenue and nothing else. That means that they have no obligation to provide anything resembling reliable information. And guess what? THEY DON'T provide reliable information. Not until NPD comes along and corrects them.

So cheer up and get off your high horse....the one you appear to be riding blindfolded sponsered by NPD.....In case you have forgotten, there is a world outside America. They buy consoles and games to.....bobbo

I'M on a high horse? I'm backed by FACT, little boy. so STFU and listen and remember for once.

You're the one with pretenses for moral superiority by making like VGChartz is some underdog competitor that should be given a chance. Never mind that they don't provide reliable service. Never mind that they purposefully mislead visitors on their site into thinking that they employ legitimate analysis techniques. Never mind that they proclaim their predictions to be "previews of NPD," as if they had some claim to officiality.

Tell me a better source that try estimate or collect all that worldwide data on a weekly..or even monthly basis?bobbo

There are none, which is why I like using VGChartz for COMPILED information. But NOT their predictions.

So, for the hundred and second time: VGChartz = good for COMPILED, HISTORICAL information. VGChartz = terrible for weekly predictions.

Do you have the memory of a goldfish or something? Because you always seem to forget EVERYTHING I say that completely refutes every single point you make.

Lol :-) Always funny to be called little boy when you are 35 years old , 6 foot 4 and 220 pounds of norwegian viking steel he he....

However somewhere in your rant there is something usable.

1 : We agree that vgchartz is great for historical data.

2 : We disagree about how accurate NPD really is. I know they are the best source for US numbers monthly. However without any competition no one knows how close they really get......hence no one knows how close vgchartz really get. So far i find NPD's estimates to be more trustworthy than vgchartz. No problem with that.

As i have said before, major chains are not covered but estimated by NPD. These chains have special customer demographics. Meaning more moms and dads and grampas and grandmas shop there. Hence different types and numbers of software are taken in by the store manager than in for instance a gamerspecialist store. Does NPD get the hardware and software shippment numbers of all games/consoles to these stores? Or are those estimated aswell along with the sellthrough data from these chains?

Do they estimate correct for Walmart, Toys 'r us (and others) with this in mind? Who knows. This is the reason why i find it abit wierd that one can use one estimater (no matter how good) as solid proof or fact or evidence that another one is getting it wrong.

3 : You really do sit on a high horse :-)

4 : I like weekly numbers from all 3 regions. I hope they continue to deliver them. I hope that over time the number of stores around the world providing them with data will continue to increase , thus increasiing their accuracy.

5 : You claim their estimates are fake. The evidence you use are numbers from another (highly respected, i'll give you that) estimator.

6 : In Japan they have 3 different firms tracking numbers. In the US you have 1. I always remain a sceptic when the provider of a service is a monopolist. There is nobody giving an alternate take on reality. So how do you really know how good they are?

7 : There is much anger in you. Be carefull ,the dark side might consume you lol .....;-)

Avatar image for bobbo
bobbo

370

Forum Posts

0

Wiki Points

0

Followers

Reviews: 0

User Lists: 0

#4 bobbo
Member since 2002 • 370 Posts

Correct me if I'm wrong but majority of the time people walk out of those conferences and talk about what Sony said.Cute_Red_Panda

consider yourself corrected ;)

Avatar image for bobbo
bobbo

370

Forum Posts

0

Wiki Points

0

Followers

Reviews: 0

User Lists: 0

#5 bobbo
Member since 2002 • 370 Posts

[QUOTE="bobbo"]Oh my god,30000 off on all systems!!! Now what has the world come to? By the way vgcahrtz also include Canada in their weekly North american numbers.mjarantilla

AT LEAST 30,000. And frequently higher. You seem to have no concept of scale here. And why don't you look up exactly how many systems Canada AND Mexico sell, LOL. It's less than 10% of total North American sales.

If they are 30000 off NPD at any given month so what? It's estimates. NPD use estimates aswell. Probably more accurate for the US, but so what?bobbo

So what? Being off by 300,000 in one month is "so what"?

Vgchartz are more than good enough to show sales trends in the market and are also the sole provider of North American weekly numbers.bobbo

No they're not. And to repeat: they were off by 300,000 on the DS back in January. VGChartz estimated 547,000, and the DS actually sold only 250,000. And while that may be one of their worst mistakes, it's not an uncommon one.

I live in Norway and just follow the market out of personal interest as an old gamer.bobbo

Well, goodie gumdrops.

I DO NOT WORK FOR VGCHARTZ. I find their site user friendly and they write many good articles about sales and trends in the industry.bobbo

By "good articles," I'm assuming you mean self-congratulatory and fallacious articles. The only numbers you can trust on VGChartz are the Japanese numbers.

What i still can't seem to wrap my head around is the attitude some of the users in this forum have against them. Are they hurting your feelings with their numbers? Are you teenage fanboys crying yourself to bed because your favourite console is lagging behind salsewise, and feel and urge to bash the site reporting the numbers?bobbo

A different argument entirely.

Is it a bad thing that someone is trying to provide us, the gamers , with information about hardware and software sales for free?bobbo

Yes, when that information is FAKE.

Once a week we can get numbers from all major regions. Is that bad?bobbo

Yes, when the numbers are FAKE.

So what if they are off sometimes. They are still new and improving from month to month. I really hope they suceed. More sources are always better than one......bobbo

"Sometimes"? They're off ALL the time. And they are NOT improving, they've actually gotten WORSE over the last six months. MUCH WORSE.

Oh, and in case you accuse me of getting all angry over VGChartz, it's not VGChartz that bothers me. It's people like you who not only continue to wallow in your ignorance, but try to convince others to join you in the muck.

It's not about ignorance, it's about how some of you use NPD as your bible. I have never questioned that NPD provide the most accurate data for the US. What i have been queationing is how accurarte those numbers really are. You are one of the guys that take it for granted that their margine of error is close to 1%...... And you call me gullible and ignorant?

I have never said that vgchartz are dead on. What i say , and their numbers back me up , is that they are close enough to indicate sales trends in the market. They also adjust their numbers when needed to based upon official shipment numbers and from time to time when proven wrong (if that is even possible) by another source like NPD.

You keep shouting FAKE FAKE FAKE all over the place. Have you any proof to back up that statement? Is your proof that they on occation get a game or console number way off NPD's estimates?

Since you claim that they have gotten worse over the last 6 months, i take it you don't visit vgchartz to often. The improvments made to the site overall are huge.

People like you always bring up their worst mistakes. Like the DS January one. Now...if they didn't correct their error, then you might have a point. But since they adjusted the numbers when realising their mistake, then what's the problem?

I still don't get your anger towards vgchartz or gamers like me that use them as one of many sources when following sales of software and hardware.

The best part of vgchartz is that they follow all major regions and give us an overall estimate for worldwide sales. Both for games and hardware. If some numbers are proven false, they correct them.

In my opinion they do us gamers a great service with limited means. If they mangage to keep going, which should be benefitial for all parties....exept for NPD off course, they will continue to improve. That is a good thing.

You still havent said anything in your arguments about why you want them to fail and dissapear. Which again leads me to believe that you work for the NPD, and fear the competition. Someone doing what you , if you work there, are doing for free, might scare you into trashing them left and right whenever the oppurtunity arises. And that is understandable.

If you are a gamer like me, i just can't see any reason not to support what they are trying to do. And that is to provide us with worldwide estimated sales numbers for hardware and software every week. Oh, and that without chargeing anyone anything.....

So cheer up and get off your high horse....the one you appear to be riding blindfolded sponsered by NPD.....In case you have forgotten, there is a world outside America. They buy consoles and games to.....Tell me a better source that try estimate or collect all that worldwide data on a weekly..or even monthly basis?

If you can ,please tell me 'cause i'm always looking for more sources than one....

Avatar image for bobbo
bobbo

370

Forum Posts

0

Wiki Points

0

Followers

Reviews: 0

User Lists: 0

#6 bobbo
Member since 2002 • 370 Posts
[QUOTE="bobbo"][QUOTE="mjarantilla"][QUOTE="travt-down"][QUOTE="BobHipJames"]

[QUOTE="travt-down"]To the best of my knowledge, NPD gets numbers from some retailers. For the retailers they do not get info from, they estimatemjarantilla

Do you have anything at all to back that up?

Thats just what I have read here over the course. NPD covers like 50% of the market, and estimates the rest. It's not an exact science. They dont cover Wal Mart, Toys R Us, or Amazon to name a few major retailers.

You might as well use VGChartz, is all guesswork no matter who you are. It's just assumed that NPD is 'more right'. 'More right' meaning best guess.

All sales figures are estimates. What separates VGChartz from NPD is the margin of error, which for NPD is less than 5%, but for VGChartz is over 50%. What this means is that if VGChartz claims that the DS sold 500k within one month, then what they're ACTUALLY saying is that it sold somewhere between 250k and 750k. That's how bloody terrible their estimates are. With NPD, if they say that the DS sold 500k in one month, then it's a good bet that it sold within a much narrowing margin of error, between 475k and 525k.

(To anyone who advocates VGChartz)
For God's sakes, if you have never taken a basic statistics course in your life (which you obviously haven't; if you had, you would never recommend VGChartz), DON'T make recommendations on what sources to use for statistics, and DON'T pass judgment on something you know nothing about.

Yes, NPD estimates. Yes, NPD only gathers data from 60% of retailers. And YES, that is enough to come up with a very, VERY accurate estimate well within 90% of the actual value, at least when it comes to hardware. VGChartz just MAKES UP their numbers based on the numbers that some poor corner shops give them. If NPD's coverage is lacking for you, then VGChartz should be, and IS, completely worthless.

"mjarantilla" : Still hate vgchartz i see ? lol

We have had this discussion several times before. Vgchartz margin of error is not 50% and you know it. Most of the time they are within 10 % of NPD. NPD is not 100% accurate either.

Point is noone has exact numbers. If you follow vgchartz over time you will discover ,as i have, that they to a very good job with limited resources.

Their accuracy is more than good enough to show the current trends in the market.

Off course you are free to bury your head in the sand and keep praising NPD like they are God or something. They do deliver good numbers, but how good are they really ? Nobody knows.

Major chains are not included and are estimated. Some of those chains are very large and have special customer demograpics ,hence making it tougher to guesstimate.

So the morale of this little tale is. If you like NPD ; use thier numbers. If you like vgchartz use thier numbers. Or even smarter use all sources avaliable. Then when shipped numbers from the big three are released you can do a comparison.

Sometimes i wonder if you work for the NPD group and feel threathened by vgchartz and what they are trying to do.....

We haven't had "this discussion" because there IS no discussion. There IS no debate. VGChartz is crap. NPD is not 100% right, but it's at least 95% right. VGChartz is barely even 75% right, and most of the time it's less than 60% right.

And yes, major chains are only estimated by NPD. SO how much LESS reliable do you think VGChartz is, since they don't have major chains AND they don't have minor chains? Besides, NPD may not get direct numbers from major chains, but they DO conduct customer polls of thousands of buyers, which MORE than balances out what they don't get from retailers. You seem to keep ignoring this tiny little fact.

VGChartz' margin of error IS 50%. Just look at the numbers they gave for February and what NPD gave:

DS:
VGChartz: 584,153
NPD: 587,600

Wii:
VGChartz: 561,332
NPD: 432,000

Xbox 360:
VGChartz: 355,921
NPD: 254,600

PS3:
VGChartz: 338,493
NPD: 280,800

PS2:
VGChartz: 273,933
NPD: 351,800

PSP:
VGChartz: 265,475
NPD: 243,100February 2008

Want more damning evidence? Here's January

DS:
VGChartz: 547,388
NPD: 251,000

Wii:
VGChartz: 327,029
NPD: 274,000

Xbox 360:
VGChartz: 286,720
NPD: 230,000

PS3:
VGChartz: 201,787
NPD: 269,000

PS2:
VGChartz: 230,707
NPD: 264,000

PSP:
VGChartz: 268,714
NPD: 230,000January 2008

Over 30,000 on all systems! And just look at the differences between NPD and VGChartz' DS numbers! THAT is what I mean by 50% margin of error. It doesn't mean they're ALWAYS 50% off. It means that there's a more than reasonable chance that at least one of their figures will be 50% off, and there's no way to predict WHICH one it will be. In statistics, I believe the technical term to describe VGChartz's accuracy would be "80% confidence in 75% accuracy." With NPD it would be "99% confidence in 95% accuracy" or something similar.

The only, and I do mean ONLY good month VGChartz has had, where they were relatively close to NPD in all their numbers, was November. That's one out of at least six months, and probably more. You're not likely to find another month where they come within 10% of NPD on all of their figures in the last year.

Oh my god,30000 off on all systems!!! Now what has the world come to? By the way vgcahrtz also include Canada in their weekly North american numbers.

If they are 30000 off NPD at any given month so what? It's estimates. NPD use estimates aswell. Probably more accurate for the US, but so what?

Vgchartz are more than good enough to show sales trends in the market and are also the sole provider of North American weekly numbers.

I live in Norway and just follow the market out of personal interest as an old gamer. I DO NOT WORK FOR VGCHARTZ. I find their site user friendly and they write many good articles about sales and trends in the industry.

What i still can't seem to wrap my head around is the attitude some of the users in this forum have against them. Are they hurting your feelings with their numbers? Are you teenage fanboys crying yourself to bed because your favourite console is lagging behind salsewise, and feel and urge to bash the site reporting the numbers?

Is it a bad thing that someone is trying to provide us, the gamers , with information about hardware and software sales for free?

Once a week we can get numbers from all major regions. Is that bad?

So what if they are off sometimes. They are still new and improving from month to month. I really hope they suceed. More sources are always better than one......

Avatar image for bobbo
bobbo

370

Forum Posts

0

Wiki Points

0

Followers

Reviews: 0

User Lists: 0

#7 bobbo
Member since 2002 • 370 Posts
[QUOTE="travt-down"][QUOTE="BobHipJames"]

[QUOTE="travt-down"]To the best of my knowledge, NPD gets numbers from some retailers. For the retailers they do not get info from, they estimatemjarantilla

Do you have anything at all to back that up?

Thats just what I have read here over the course. NPD covers like 50% of the market, and estimates the rest. It's not an exact science. They dont cover Wal Mart, Toys R Us, or Amazon to name a few major retailers.

You might as well use VGChartz, is all guesswork no matter who you are. It's just assumed that NPD is 'more right'. 'More right' meaning best guess.

All sales figures are estimates. What separates VGChartz from NPD is the margin of error, which for NPD is less than 5%, but for VGChartz is over 50%. What this means is that if VGChartz claims that the DS sold 500k within one month, then what they're ACTUALLY saying is that it sold somewhere between 250k and 750k. That's how bloody terrible their estimates are. With NPD, if they say that the DS sold 500k in one month, then it's a good bet that it sold within a much narrowing margin of error, between 475k and 525k.

(To anyone who advocates VGChartz)
For God's sakes, if you have never taken a basic statistics course in your life (which you obviously haven't; if you had, you would never recommend VGChartz), DON'T make recommendations on what sources to use for statistics, and DON'T pass judgment on something you know nothing about.

Yes, NPD estimates. Yes, NPD only gathers data from 60% of retailers. And YES, that is enough to come up with a very, VERY accurate estimate well within 90% of the actual value, at least when it comes to hardware. VGChartz just MAKES UP their numbers based on the numbers that some poor corner shops give them. If NPD's coverage is lacking for you, then VGChartz should be, and IS, completely worthless.

"mjarantilla" : Still hate vgchartz i see ? lol

We have had this discussion several times before. Vgchartz margin of error is not 50% and you know it. Most of the time they are within 10 % of NPD. NPD is not 100% accurate either.

Point is noone has exact numbers. If you follow vgchartz over time you will discover ,as i have, that they to a very good job with limited resources.

Their accuracy is more than good enough to show the current trends in the market.

Off course you are free to bury your head in the sand and keep praising NPD like they are God or something. They do deliver good numbers, but how good are they really ? Nobody knows.

Major chains are not included and are estimated. Some of those chains are very large and have special customer demograpics ,hence making it tougher to guesstimate.

So the morale of this little tale is. If you like NPD ; use thier numbers. If you like vgchartz use thier numbers. Or even smarter use all sources avaliable. Then when shipped numbers from the big three are released you can do a comparison.

Sometimes i wonder if you work for the NPD group and feel threathened by vgchartz and what they are trying to do.....

Avatar image for bobbo
bobbo

370

Forum Posts

0

Wiki Points

0

Followers

Reviews: 0

User Lists: 0

#8 bobbo
Member since 2002 • 370 Posts

[QUOTE="travt-down"]To the best of my knowledge, NPD gets numbers from some retailers. For the retailers they do not get info from, they estimateBobHipJames

Do you have anything at all to back that up?

Try "googleing" NPD and sales data, NPD estimates or something simular. Then you can find all the info you need. NPD covers about 60% of actual sales and estimate the rest. Major chains like Walmart are not included and sales from them are estimated.

Now go use the internet. If you seek you will find....unless you are lazy and can't be bothered.....

Avatar image for bobbo
bobbo

370

Forum Posts

0

Wiki Points

0

Followers

Reviews: 0

User Lists: 0

#9 bobbo
Member since 2002 • 370 Posts

Xbox 360 has the biggest software to hardware attach ratio of any console and had 47% of all software sales on consoles last year, I woudn't say Wii is dominating it just because of a few games like Smash bros, third party software on 360 sells far better than third party software on Wii. Wii may be dominating 360 software sales in Japan, but 360 owners are still buying more games than Wii owners in Europe and North America. Wii sold more software recently because of Smash bros, but GTAIV is around the corner and will do millions, Halo 3 done nearly 8 million, and Gears 2 will do 5 million +

Wii is not dominating 360 in software sales at all.

M3tro1d

Wii has dominated the 250 in software aswell for the last 4 months or so. Get used to it cause it won't stop. It will only get worse/better depending on you beeing a fanbly or not of either console.

Check your facts before posting, usually helps... (NPD, vgchartz for North America, vgchartz for europe ,no other source available for that region and finaly mediacreate ,vgchartz for Japan).

Galaxy and smash will pass the games you mentioned in the end. Mariokart and wiifit might to. Not my taste of games,, but they will sell like hotcakes, believe me.....

Avatar image for bobbo
bobbo

370

Forum Posts

0

Wiki Points

0

Followers

Reviews: 0

User Lists: 0

#10 bobbo
Member since 2002 • 370 Posts

[QUOTE="St_muscat"]Is it just me but are now fanboys getting lazy and don't even put any effort into their flamebait any more because this topic is just sad. Insert Faceplam now.M3tro1d

It's not easy to troll the current consoles really, Wii is dominating in sales, 360 in software sales, and PS3 has a good line up for 2008. They are all doing ok...which is good for gamers, not good for fanboys.

Actually the wii is dominating both hardware and software. In all major markets at the moment according to known sources. (NPD, Mediacrate, vgchartz etc....)

And from the looks of things , that trend will continue for quite a while.