Without a doubt, the PS3 will beat the 360 in Japan, Europe, AND America
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I think we have all established (within Casey's thread anyway) that it is statistically impossible for the PS3 to pass the 360 in total sales this year. Next year, possibly.In before: "dude, you could have just summed that up with 'just wait'."
Anyhoo, you brought up some good points. I agree on a few: I think Blu-ray will factor in to PS3 sales in about 2 years as it continues to become more popular. And I think when games like MGSIV, FFXIII, GT5, GTAIV have all arrived on the PS3... PS2 owners will be more willing to make the transfer.
So yeah, I can see beating the 360 in all territories eventually. This year? Depends on which games are released.
the-very-best
1. World-wide install base. This will encourage developers to make a larger variety of games even here in the US. In a year or 2 (3rd at most) ADVANTAGE: the PS3.
#Ok .. but surely an industry leading user-base is a trump card here ... Avantage 360
2. Reputation. Reliability and previous generation install base. ADVANTAGE: the PS3.
Ok i'm a bit bias here seeing as i'm in the uk .. Sony has thrown it's reputation away over the last couple of years
3. Graphics in games. Last year, most multiplats look and play better on the 360. Not this year. Which means, developers are starting to master the PS3's power. Starting this year and beyond, the games with the best graphics will be on the PS3. ADVANTAGE: the PS3.
Seriously the casuals couldn't tell the difference between Dreamcast and PSone graphics .. and they weren't rushing out to buy xboxes over PS2 ... as long as the graphics are similar this is a moot point
4. Non-gaming features but very useful to have. Blu-ray. Enough said. ADVANTAGE: the PS3.
I agree , Blu-ray , media streaming are better on Ps3 .. give you that one
5. On line play. Believe it or not, LIVE actually limits the number of people who will buy the 360. LIVE is like the plaque to casuals. ADVANTAGE: the PS3.
This is just plane crazy talk ... Live is a great system PSN is not on the same level .. face it if PSN ever got to the quality of Live MS would stop charging .. but while they can charge .. they will $$
6. Quality of games: debatable and subjective. ADVANTAGE, unclear.
well at the moment that goes to 360 .. but in the future it should balance out as there seem to be less and less dodgy PS3 ports
7. Cost. After a year or two, it will cost move to play gams on the 360. Advantage the PS3.
why exactly ? in a year or two the Xbox Acrace will be selling for $150 because it's gonig to have a DVD drive and no HDD and MS will be able to build it for about $30 ... same is true for the Wii ... i'm sure nintendo could sell it for $100 and still not lose money !
[QUOTE="Quofan"]*sigh*
I thought sales didnt matter? I thought games mattered?
nogginkl
Sales do matter because it helps what and how many games developers make for each console.
I was referring to the "only sheep use sales" argument.
And Im sorry, but to suggest the PS3 will outsell the Wii and that Niontendo will release a second Wii console before the gen is up? I think you Cows are getting more and more desperate.
I didn't know so many psychics visit this forum so much
ok , if you can tell that the PS3 is going to win the console
can you answer some other questions for me?
will led zepplein ever do a reunion tour?
will elvis return as a zombie?
WWIAB
They did...in London. :D
[QUOTE="WWIAB"]I didn't know so many psychics visit this forum so much
ok , if you can tell that the PS3 is going to win the console
can you answer some other questions for me?
will led zepplein ever do a reunion tour?
will elvis return as a zombie?
smeghead83
They did...in London. :D
They did a reunion gig not a tour
[QUOTE="Senor_Kami"][QUOTE="nogginkl"][QUOTE="black_awpN1"]In total WW sales? Possisbly. theres a rather good chance.But in America? eh, not so much.nogginkl
Why? I have heard a lot of lemming talk in this forum about how the 360 will win America, but none has really given a decent paragraph or four to support their case. I'd love to hear it, and debunk it.
I think its time for you to show some sort of numbers that would suggest what you're saying. Not just conjecture and writing paragraphs based of nothing but opinion.
All of these are for the Americas, with the % showing the change in the latest year (2007 or 2008 depending on what month) compared to the year before it:
Month of December 2007, 2006
http://www.gamespot.com/news/6164101.html
http://www.gamespot.com/news/6184847.html
PS3 [490,700 in 2006, 797,600 in 2007] +63%
360 [1,100,000 in 2006, 1,260,000 in 2007] +15%
*Start of 2008 vs 2007*
The sources switched because 1) NPD data won't be out for two more weeks and 2) Vgchartz didn't compare against the previous year until Jan 2008 and i'll leave picking through flash line plots for the person who wants to debunk me.
Week of 1/5
http://vgchartz.com/news/news.php?id=753
360 +47%
PS3 +10%
Week of 1/12
http://vgchartz.com/news/news.php?id=771
360 +22%
PS3 -12%
Week of 1/19
http://vgchartz.com/news/news.php?id=793
360 +9%
PS3 -11%
Week of 1/26
http://www.vgchartz.com/news/news.php?id=816
360 +27%
PS3 +1%
Undeniables:
1) the 360 currently has a larger install base in the US than the PS3
2) The 360 currently sells more week to week than the PS3 (goto the URLs for more info)
3) Based off of data from the previous year, the 360 sales are increasing at a higher rate.
How do you read this data and suggest that the PS3 will outsell or perform better in 2008? Nobody knows about 2009 and forward, but there is already some data for 2008, and it currently favors the 360. The question is will MGS4 and GT4 actually buck the trend and have the PS3 outselling the 360 from that point on or at least have it rising faster than the 360... or will it be sales spikes?
In the US, the 360 outsold the PS3 almost every month last year. I say almost because while I don't remember the PS3 ever outselling it, i'll assume maybe there was one month that i'm forgetting. This year, its doing the same thing AND increasing its sales. And this is with a $100 price cut and Blu-Ray landing some likely fatal blows on HD-DVD. Not to mention RROD and Live. People always mention these but look at the numbers. This is the real impact, not just System Wars babbling about RROD destroying the 360 and people not buying 40gb PS3s because of no BC... despite reality being that the 40gb is the best selling one and the version that actually puts up decent numbers and that clearly, RROD hasn't destroyed anything.
It will be interesting to see what NPD shows and what both vgchartz and NPD will show as the year goes by. Speculation aside, the numbers don't lie. It might be because i'm a business major, but the numbers are #1. People can think and say whatever but the #s tell what they do... which is all that matters.
Well, thanks for making an effort. Give me a little more credit than saying that I have nothing but opinions.
When you look at sales trends, you don't just look at the numbers. You ask why those numbers are the way they are and see if the exlanations hold true long term. Let's talk about America. I'll give you props for bringing out sales numbers vs a year ago. The rate of increase shouldn't be surprising for the 360, though. In early 2007, available exclusive games were pretty weak. A the start of 2008, availalabe exlusive game are much stronger.
As for the PS3 in early 07, people were buying the PS3 just to have early-adopter status, despite a major lack of games. In 08, the early-adopter status is a non-issue, and good games are still perceived as lacking. Also, multi-platform games are still perceived as better on the 360. In addition, while Blu-ray has basically won the format war, most mainstream gamers don't know or care about it yet. Exclusives on the PS3 are significantly inferior to those on the 360. However, ALL these negatives for the PS3 are temporary, and are just starting to unravel, and its sales will pick faster than the 360. Care to make a bet, since you believe in past sales so much? Newsflash, history repeats itself, particularly with regards to trends. Look at the PSP vs. DS. Its clear that Nintendo's strategy is successful while the PSP really only sold due to the enourmous brand strenght at that time. However, it is not enough for the PS3 to sell well. We can see paralells with this same strategy between the Wii's success and the PS3's lack of it.
All 3 undeniables you listed are about past sales, helped mainly by games already sold. These undeniables are not long-term advantages. I will list the long term advantage for the PS3 again, for you below. I never said the PS3 will outsell or outperform the 360 in 2008, overall. I said the PS3 will might outsell the 360 DURING the holiday season of 08. I am not the only who thinks this way. Michal Pachter does as well. Who the heck is that and why should what he says be the gospel?
Last year, Blu-ray didn't have a fatal blow towards HD-DVD. It just started this January, dude. A very BIG difference. RROD hasn't mattered much because all consoles with RROD are still fixed free by Microsoft. The negatives about RROD should appear again in late 2008 when the 3 year warranty starts to run out. Expect RROD to come back and haunt Microsoft.
Now compare the undeniables you listed to my list below. Yours should appear weak. Remember I am not talking about sales in 2007 or 2008, even. I am talking about life time sales for each console in America. Below are the advantages for the PS3 that hold true now and later, unlike your 3 undeniables.
1. World-wide install base. This will encourage developers to make a larger variety of games. In a year or 2 (3rd at most) ADVANTAGE: Nintendo Wii
2. Reputation. Reliability and current generation install base. ADVANTAGE: Nintendo Wii
3. Graphics in games. Last year, most multiplats look and play better on the 360. This will continue. ADVANTAGE: Xbox 360.
4. Non-gaming features are intruiging but ultimately utterly piontless. They oftejn serve to increase the costs of consoles for the consumer, who is put off by the higher price for an add-on they dont want or care for ADVANTAGE: Nintendo Wii
5. On line play. Believe it or not, LIVE actually boosts the number of people who will buy the 360. LIVE is popular with casuals. This will drive the 360's sales. ADVANTAGE: Xbox 360
6. Quality of games: debatable and subjective. ADVANTAGE, unclear.
7. Cost. After a year or two, it will cost more to play games on the 360. Or will it? I don't know where you are getting this from. But the Wii will always be the cheapest to develop for. Advantage Nintendo Wii
I can list more, but for now, 6 out of 7 aspects listed above undeniably DO NOT favor the PS3 in terms of sales. Now, number 6 is about games. Sure enough, the quality of games coming out for each system can't be predicted. But judging from the first party exclusives in Sony's portfolio, the PS3 at least can hold its own with the 360 this year and beyond, however, it is undoubtably Nintendo who consistently have the best first party exclusives.
@ Quofan :
I think Nintendo Will create a successor to the wii before either 360 or PS3 are replaced ... quite simply i think they will keep their stratergy after selling a heck of a load of Wii's they will produce another very cheap machine but with powers slightly above the 360/PS3 and with Wii BC built in what Nintendo fan wouldn't buy one.
I'm not doing the Wii a disservice or calling it a fad, but it would make sense for nintendo to once again play the trump card of having a machine that uses programers experience that they have built up on the 360 / PS3 and have easy ports from a larger installed user base.
But this is off topic so i'll say no more !
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