Without a doubt, the PS3 will beat the 360 in Japan, Europe, AND America

By E3 this year there will be a Blu-Ray add-on for the 360. Regardless though MS has bitten into that 120 million user base quite a bit. dru26

I am not sure about that. My bet is, there won't be. This year's too early, as Toshiba is still dragging out HD DVD's death. Next year, when HD DVD is dead, may be. HOWEVER, if Microsoft plans to bring the XBOX 720 out in 2010, it will not have a Blu-ray add-on for the 360, period. It would be a marketing disaster. The 360 is still too noisy and unreliable a product. You already paid for an unreliable console, why make your Blu-ray player unreliable as well? Sure, if Microsoft brings out the Blu-ray add on, many lemmings will buy, but, it's Sony that stands to gain a huge marketing advantage: Fanboys, word-of mouth, and advertisements will say, Blu-ray movies are best on the Sony console--more reliable, less noisy, and takes up less space than the 360 with its add on. So, no. Also, unless Microsoft wants to lose money on each add-on, the PS3 will be cheaper than the 360 WITH the add-on.

So, a Blu-ray add-on ain't gonna happen...unless Microsoft wants to stay in the game till 2011 or longer. Even so, the Blu-ray advantage will always goes to Sony. Blu-ray is pretty much equal to Sony.

[QUOTE="Prid3r"]

Software: PS3, X360 is going to end like Xbox1 a shooter console only. Losing other territories like Europe and Japan will also eventually cost them developer support in those areas as well. Also Sony has twice the inhouse development of Nintendo and Microsoft combined.

EmperorSupreme

This post REEKS of stupidty and ignorance. You should be smart enough to realise 360's software sales are already different from Xbox1. Xbox1 was heavily outdone by PS2 in everything except some FPS..this time around everythign sells more on 360. hardcore userbase is much larger.

*sigh*

I thought sales didnt matter? I thought games mattered?

[QUOTE="Star67"]I'll give you japan and Europe, but I dont see it happening in america.nogginkl

Yeah? Well, look for trends in monthly sales in America, starting this year even. I strongly believe the PS3 will cut the 360's lead in monthly sales this year, especially after a major AAA exclusive comes out--Metal Gear Solid 4? Once you see the PS3 starts to gain momentum over the 360, say over a 3 to 5 month period, there's no turning back, unless Microsofts wants to be unprofitable again this generation. Also don't forget that when prices drop for both consoles, which they will, it will help the PS3 more, because in one price drop, the PS3 becomes a cheaper HD gaming machine AND a cheaper Blu-ray player. Microsoft, can't win this generation. Anywhere.

Sorry, but you're reaching bigtime. First off, no matter what there are still only so many people with HD TV's and everyone isn't near as concerned with Blu Ray and HD-DVD as you seem to think. Second, you act as if MS has nothing going for them this year or next. Newsflash, its software that placed MS in its current good position and that's not likely to change. With Ninja Gaiden 2, Gears 2, Mass Effect 2 and 3, Bunjie's new IP, and whatever else they have planned, the next two years are going to be damn solid. The PS3 will gain ground on MS, this year no doubt and Japan will be its biggest help. In the US PS3 sales will improve but not eclispe the 360 IMHO. As for price drops, a 360 one will spark more sales than a PS3 one becasue at the end of the day there are more people looking to game than watch HD movies. And if gaming means the most to you IMHO the 360 is where you want to be. Expect IMHO at least two price drops for the 360 and massive announcements at the GDC in Febuary. Newsflash again, Sony's showed the vast majority of their hand for 2008 with Home, Killzone, Resistance 2, MGS, FF, LBP, and blu ray. What honestly has MS annoucned for the 360 this year in the way of exclusive games, release dates, new Ip's, price drops, new Xbox live games, new movies, and unannouced sequels?

Nothing really.

I don't think anyone truly can predict anything until at least each company has laid their 2008 plans on the table. Cause I tell you if the 360 hits that 300 price mark, announces Gears 2 this year, a new freee pack in for the 360, release dates for new downloadable content for Halo, Mass Effect and GTA4 that will make a massive difference in keeping the 360 very profitable and strong in America and Europe. So until MS shows its hand at he GDC you might want to hold off on predicting trends when you gun is only half loaded with what Sony is doing. PS I use In my humble opinion cause I don't make predictions I gurantee to be true. You might want to try that.

Microsoft can beat Sony in America this gen and be solid in Europe, but more importantly than both, it can claim a huge chunk of the gaming pie unlike last time, while laughing at the huge peice Sony lost. And when the 720 hits if they ensure no hardware problems I think they will be profitable in their gaming division here on out. As for MS losses thus far, its all a part of their game to win in the end, long term. They are no longer losing money. So even though the hole of losses is deep it isn't getting bigger, its getting smaller. And with an insane attach rate and tons of million sellers and a great deal of franchises that sell they are in a very good place to hold off the PS3 until at least mid to late 2009. By then they'll still be in the black even if they are in last place. And at the end of the day isn't that what business is about, Making a profit, being compettive in market share, and building a solid name for your gaming division. All three of those are MS hallmarks in the 360 era. Don't expect that to change, IMHO:)

i think this gen was important for MS to:

1- change people's minds on the Xbox brand. now it's more praised and respected.

2- opening space to the next-gen, Sony will not have a 120 million userbase this time, so things are going to be different next-gen.

i think that's what MS earned with their efforts this gen. Also, they'll probably profit with the 360, something they didn't with the first Xbox.

Funny, I think Japan, Europe, and NA belong to the Wii, or very shortly will. I guess I must have missed a year.Jandurin

why do people bring the Wii in a PS3x360 thread?

isn't that off-topic?

I'm hesitant to respond to posts like these that don't include any links or sales data. Even if its vgchartz, it at least shows that you analyzed something to reach these claims rather than just pulling numbers and "trends" out of the air.

Even with that I started doing some number crunching and a good bit of what you say holds up. However, I have doubts on some of your points. There is a major difference between this site and what happens in the real world. In the real world, price is a HIGH factor. People here complain about lack of BC in the 40gig and say thats its confusing people and making them lose sales, but the 40gb version has been the highest selling model in the real world. Sony recently said that they've just now gotten the cost to be about $400... which still means they lose money on each system sold. It probably isn't too much seeing as they likely get to keep a good $300+ of that $399 price tag, but its still a loss. MS actually profits on each system now and has said it since like early-mid 2007. If anyone can afford to make a price drop, its MS, not Sony.

Blu-ray is only somewhat of a factor and i dsagree with you, but in the future I feel it will be less of a factor. The PS3 right now is the cheapest blu-ray player that can actually play the spec (they recently finalized the v1.1 spec and all players currently out there can't be upgraded to it with the exception of the PS3). So for right now, its the cheeapest and best Blu-Ray player out there. In the future will this be the case? When you can buy a Blu-Ray player for $150 or $99 or less, will the PS3 having it really influence your purchase? In 2003 you could get a DVD player for like $69.99. My house had 3 of them at that point. The PS2 and Xbox coming with DVD players was kind of a mute point. In the future as standalone blu-ray players drop in price, I think it will have less impact on people purchasing a PS3.That could be years and years down the line though. Not only that, but HD disc sales period are a joke compared to regular DVD sales. How much time will it take the market to finally switch to HD media or at least where HD media is at 50%? Price seems to be very motivating for people, but lowered price of Blu-Ray players hurts diminishes the appeal of a PS3 with built in blu-ray.

I think that will have an affect everywhere, but most notably in the US where the 360 already has a larger install base. In a a week to week, the 360 is outselling the PS3. I don't see how the PS3 can change somehow get a userbase higher than the 360 until that changes. vgchartz posted an article where they analyzed week to week with 2008 and 2007. One system had a 27% increase in sales, the other had a 1% increase. Guess which was which. The PS3 was at 1%. Even with all the added value, people are actually not only buying more 360s than PS3s, but they sales increase is higher on the 360. Whether that will change remains to be seen. We've heard no news of price drops or other things and thats what really pushes the market into setting new trends. I think the 360 is safe @ #2 in the US unless something unprecedented happens.

Japan is kinda out of the picture. Even with a price drop they've stuck with the Wii as their #1 by leaps and bounds. I don't think the PS3 is just going to suddenly take off over there. Its a different market where there is usually one winner who blows everyone else out of the water. This doesn't hurt MS that much they. Based off of what the xbox sold there, its doubtful that they planned on Japan being a hotbed market where they'd move US or Europe like numbers. It just doesn't make sense to assume that based off of the history of the brand. However, Sony was counting on Japan to be a major player. Japan is more of a market to pad the dispairty in US sales than a place to propel the system to PS2 levels.

I don't know enough about the market since its less talked about than Japan and the US, so I feel ike Europe is the mystery place that everyone is eyeing. US and Japan seemto have made up there mind on what they are going to do but i'm thinking that everyone is trying to swing europe their way. Currently the PS3 is winning, and I think its likely because of Blu-Ray. However, MS has stated that they are going to really focus on getting Europe. IPTV will be launching there first (which blows imo) and they are constantly expanding Video Marketplace. Focusing on media imo is there way of trying to counteract blu-ray movies affect on the PS3. If IPTV can catch on, it will be a major thing for MS. And will likely turn the tide or balance it enoughso that Esecially with the price difference.

Senor_Kami

I really appreciate an well-thought out response. I just strongly disagree with you.

Sure, a lot of people complain about backwards compatibility, but it barely hurts Sony because the PS2 can be bought for real cheap if anyone still like to play PS2 games. Also, if they care about backwards so much, they can buy used 20 and 60 gig PS3s. Even the current 80 gig version has a decent compatibility. Talking about price drops, yes, Microsoft seems to make money on consoles as well, but if you you consider the chance of getting the Red Ring of Death and the money it needs to set aside for repairs, Microsoft might still be losing money per console. It's still widely believed that ALL current 360 models are still too unreliable compaired to the PS3 or Wii. I also disagree with you about who gains more when it comes to price drops. I think it's obviously Sony. With each drop in price, they are selling a cheaper HD gaming machine AND a cheaper Blu-ray player. Sony kills two birds with one stone. Microsoft only 1 bird.

Blu-ray will always be a factor in the life span of the 360, and this is within the scope of this thread. You can say, in a year or two a stand-alone Blu-ray player will become cheaper than the PS3. May be, but not much. I actually, think the PS3 will ALWAYS be one of the cheaper Blu-ray player models. Remember, electronics prices are based on the economy of scale--the more you make them the cheaper you can sell them. There will always more PS3s coming out of the factory than any stand-alone Blu-ray player. So, the economy of scale and the HD gaming feature of the PS3 will always make it a better value as a cheap Blu-ray player. The PS2's value as a DVD player is insignificant now because most homes and already have it, AND the next DVD format (Blu-ray) has already come out. With the PS3, it's not the same. Well, within the life span of the 360, most households (or at least 30%) still won't have a Blu-ray player, also, there won't be another DISK format to replace Blu-ray within the 360's life span, if ever. A lot of thinkers in the movie world, think that Blu-ray will be the last disk format. So, Blu-ray's life span may actually be longer than that of the DVD. In any anycase, Blu-ray will aways be a factor in the PS3--during the 360's life span, at least.

The PS3's main weakness now is that it lackes an exclusive or 2 that is major and AAA. Metal Gear Solid 4 is coming. Once it does, expect the PS3 to rise in monthly sales. Perhaps, even coming close or beat the 360 for the month. And as more exclusives comes out for the PS3, the legitimacy of the PS3 as an HD gaming machine and HD player will be complete. It will be a slow decline for the 360 going forward, relative to the PS3 that is. If the 360 prices drops, so can and most likely will the PS3. I expect the PS3 to sell more than or at least very close to the 360 during the 2008 holiday season.

Only Japan has made up is mind. In Europe, it's already leaning towards the PS3, EVENTHOUGH the PS3 still lacks that killer exclusives. I strongly disagree with your perspective of America. I believe it has no where near decided. The PS3 is just starting to reap the benefits of Blu-ray. The killer exclusives haven't arrived. They will, and when they do, America will start to learn towards the PS3 again. All the PS2 owners??? Once the PS3 drops to $200 to $300 bucks, what do you think they will upgrade their console to? They are waiting to upgrade now. Alot of them will do so this year, especially after th PS3 drops $50 to a $100 more. In 2009 or 2010 expect the PS3 price to be between $300 to $200. Even if the 360 becomes only a $150 bucks, expect more PS2 owners will switch to the PS3 than the 360 because they also get a Blu-ray player. Awareness of Blu-ray movies will be mainstream by then. I should also add the necessary monthly fees for LIVE will also be a big negative for the 360 for people moving up from the PS2. These people are not used to paying monthly fees.

Expanding the infrastructure for IPTV to compete with Blu-ray will be very difficult. IPTV has been in market for for close to a decade at least, and it's still in its infancy. Expanding Blu-ray is much easier. Also, IPTV will never match the quality of Blu-ray, certainly not within the lifespan of the 360. I am half right when I say this: HD downloads on the XBOX or Apple's IPTV are not really HD movies. They might have the resolution of an HD 720 movie, but not the bit-rate. Also, these downloads aren't 1080p like Blu-ray.

In short, the 360 is a viable console for games, no doubt about it. But so is the PS3. The difference is that the PS3 has Blu-ray and a world-wide install base that grows much faster than the 360's. All that will help the PS3 here in America. My belief that the 360 will be last in this country is only getting stronger, if that's possible.

UPDATE:

For those of you who think the 360 will beat the PS3 in America, try to determine which one will still be in the shops while the other is discontinued. Elsewhere and here in America, it's the PS3 that will be in the shops and the 360 that will be discontinued. That's because there'll be more demand for the PS3; the Blu-ray player makes it a very cheap way to get into HD movies. Also, more software will be made for the PS3 because of its higher world wide install base. In short, more demand=longer life span.

nogginkl

[QUOTE="Jandurin"]Funny, I think Japan, Europe, and NA belong to the Wii, or very shortly will. I guess I must have missed a year.SambaLele

why do people bring the Wii in a PS3x360 thread?

isn't that off-topic?

Secondly, his OP was a little too aggrandizing. I think the TC may have forgot the Wii, and I just wanted to make sure he hadn't.

[QUOTE="dru26"]By E3 this year there will be a Blu-Ray add-on for the 360. Regardless though MS has bitten into that 120 million user base quite a bit. GARRYTH

basic point: Xbox 360 is not saleing well (neither is PS3 for that matter)

compate Xbox 360 first year to PS2 first year

PS2 6.5 million ( with production litations= sold out)

Xbox360 4.5 million with many still on the shelf!!!!

http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,76523-page,1/article.html for PS2 Just google to get more info

http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2007/id20070117_196675.htm?chan=innovation_game+room_top+stories Xbox 360 first year numbers!!!

so what U say.... well FACT is more people have gotten into game so one would expect that sales would rise or INCREASE!!! and they have just not with Xbox360 as PS2 still outsold it!!!!!!!!!

SO with MORE people buying consoles and xbox360 HAVING GREAT GAMES it still just sold more than the first Xbox here look at this http://yourgamerparadise.wordpress.com/2007/01/19/sales-analysis-xbox-vs-x360/

In the end Xbox is out in front how long it will stay that way only time will tell. But with PS3 having no great games to speak of AGAIN (in comparison) they again sold okay for the price and no great games!!!!! Now in 2008 some great games are coming out for PS3 and xbox 360 and the price is coming down as well.

the only real difference is that there are more PS2 owners who will be ready to make the transission to PS3 like myself (I only own a Wii now) when the price /AAA games merit the purchase!!! and once this starts (PS2 to PS3) there are at least 3X the number of people who will trade up over the life span of PS3 which is said to be 10 years. And with PS2 outselling Xbox360 after 6 years and Xbox having great exclusives I can see the same thing happening 8 years from now!!!!

The PS3 will come out ahead of the 360. One reason is when used games start showing up at a lower price the PS3 games being on a Blu-Ray disc that is almost impossible to damage at lower price then there will flocks of people buying these games. But the 360 games (most that get destroyed by the bad disc drive) will be in short supply for used games. Then the fact that the PS3 is still the very best Blu-Ray player because of the latest firmware update that improved the players software and it could keep doing this as the technology grows.

The numbers between the two systems are a lot closer than people think they are already even with the fact that the PS3 hasn't even been on the market a full year worlwide yet. Then there are so many development studios that Sony owns already and there are more developers getting the hang of the PS3 hardware/software now (some are saying it's easier to develope for now than ever before.

If we think about it the PS3 sold very close to 5 million consoles without games and now is gaining in sales all the time.

jimm895

Talking about used games, I think later on, PS3 used games will be in higher demand because people who buy used games have a good chance of not paying for LIVE. So they are cheap. With PS3 used games, you don't need to pay monthly fees to play online. So, this is another bonus that can be added to the benefits of the PS3.

In total WW sales? Possisbly. theres a rather good chance.

But in America? eh, not so much.

black_awpN1

Why? I have heard a lot of lemming talk in this forum about how the 360 will win America, but none has really given a decent paragraph or four to support their case. I'd love to hear it, and debunk it.

You don't have any proof that the "attitude" towards the Ps3 has suddenly changed this year, you just theorized that :|

So what if the Ps3 has a bit more respect on gaming boards, do you have any idea how small we are in comparison to the gaming public? GTA isn't a system seller for either system, since it's multiplat. GT5 definitely is though.

It's possible that the ps3 could overtake the 360, but It's too early to tell.

_Dispair_

To me, it's definitely not too early to tell. The signs are plenty if you look and think hard enough.

MS is going to lower the price of the 360 Pro to $299, Arcade $199, and Elite to $350. I doubt Sony is going to announce another price cut until November if then. Also what is to stop MS from making a Blu-Ray add-on to the 360. Since Blu-Ray diodes have gone down in price. Sony can't get all their partners to not allow this since it means more money for them.

I do think the PS3 will outsell the 360 worldwide probably by early 09. Not sure about NA though, the 360 has been doing better there every month since PS3 launch. The Wii which has been selling like.. something that sells really well.. hasn't even caught the 360 yet, and I can't see the PS3 pulling Wii type numbers anytime soon (market can't support 2 consoles selling like that).

And I think people over state the Bluray advantage. Right now its a huge thing, no bluray players are even comparable in value to the PS3. But right now the market for HD movies simply isn't very large. By the time BluRay replaces the DVD, there will be BluRay players for much less then the PS3. Just like the PS2 and DVD players now. This will mean that people who simply want a Bluray player arn't going to get a PS3 for it.

[QUOTE="nogginkl"]

[QUOTE="Cyber-"]In japan gaming is just declining. SeanBond

Declining, maybe not. But it will always remain a popular past time. Who knows, with the Wii and the Blu-ray feature in the PS3, gaming might start to rise again. Hasn't it already? Has anyone compared the last yr's sales to the year before?

PS3 sales suck in Japan. Whether or not gaming is in a period of decline for them, the Wii is absolutely destroying the PS3 over there, so it's not so much that the PS3 is selling well in that market, it's just that it's not selling as badly as the 360. PS3 sales are better than the 360's in Europe, but not by a big enough margin to make up what the 360 gains in North America.

As to whether or not this will be PS3's year, there's nothing clear-cut about it, so I'm not sure why people keep saying it's so obvious. Yeah, the PS3 has some huge games coming out this year, but so does the 360. Besides, one or two more "AAAEs" (as people in SW are so obsessed with) aren't going to be enough to suddenly make the PS3 beat the 360 once and for all; it's still got plenty of catching up to do.

PS3 sales suck now because their aren't enough good games for it yet, and prices are still high. In a year or two, this won't be the case. So, PS3 sales will pick up. It's just common sense to figure this out.

The Wii maybe selling well, but it's not selling the more hardcore games either. It's the PS3 and PS2 that do.

You are right. The PS3's sales advantage in Europe alone isn't enough, but together with the sales advantage in Japan, the the PS3 can overtake the 360 in America. In fact, barely a year old and without AAA big exclusives, PS3 has already sold more than a million cosoles than the 360 worldwide last year.

I never said the PS3 will beat the 360 this year. I did say that the PS3 will beat OR come very close beating the the 360 during the holiday 2008. You don't predict the future based on a one or two aspects--you predict on as many aspects as you can:

1. World-wide install base. This will encourage developers to make a larger variety of games even here in the US. In a year or 2 (3rd at most) ADVANTAGE: the PS3.

2. Reputation. Reliability and previous generation install base. ADVANTAGE: the PS3.

3. Graphics in games. Last year, most multiplats look and play better on the 360. Not this year. Which means, developers are starting to master the PS3's power. Starting this year and beyond, the games with the best graphics will be on the PS3. ADVANTAGE: the PS3.

4. Non-gaming features but very useful to have. Blu-ray. Enough said. ADVANTAGE: the PS3.

5. On line play. Believe it or not, LIVE actually limits the number of people who will buy the 360. LIVE is like the plaque to casuals. ADVANTAGE: the PS3.

6. Quality of games: debatable and subjective. ADVANTAGE, unclear.

I can list more, but for now, 5 out of six aspects listed above favor the PS3 in terms of sales. Now, number 6 is about games. Sure enough, the quality of games coming out for each system can't be predicated. But judging from the first party exclusives in Sony's portfolio, the PS3 at least can hold its own with the 360 this year and beyond. That said, with 5 out 6 in Sony's favor and 1 out of 6 debatable, I say it again: without a doubt the PS3 will beat the 360 hear in the US.

UPDATE:

7. Cost. After a year or two, it will cost move to play gams on the 360. Advantage the PS3.

OMG, when i saw this topic i was laughing and just had to post. lol where to begin

Ok first of all here in the UK you go into any game shop that sells games and almost 2/3 of the space is for xbox360 games..then Wii and if its like a shalf or two for the PS3

THE PS3 IS NOT SELLING WELL IN THE UK....lol just face it ok, it just doesnt sell as well as the 360 and wishes it was up their with the Wii. But truth be told it wont beat the 360 in Europe or America.

Unless people are going to be extremly pathtic and wait until it over takes it in a few years and scream and cry they were right...because as of right now the PS3 isnt beating anything.

i agree with you TC.

i think it's going to happen this way.

Wii first

PS3 second

360 third

and MS discontinuing the 360 before Ninty or Sony, to give people the "choice" of moving to the next-gen xbox if they want new games.

SambaLele

I am not so sure about PS3 vs. Wii. I actually think in the long run (5 to 10 years) the PS3 will outnumber the Wii. Simply because I feel Nintendo will come out with Wii2 will discontinue the Wii. Sony will continue to make and sell the PS3 after the Wii is discontinued.

while you make valid points, the one thing remains true. if the ps3 continues to get outsold by the 360 in NA then it will never catch up. With each month the 360 outsells the ps3, the 360 expands its lead and the ps3 falls farther and farther behind.sirk1264

Do your math and you will see that once you Sony start reducing Microsoft's monthly sales, and do so in a regular basis, the trend will point to a month where the PS3 actually begins to lead the 360 in sales. Watch for it in December 08, and the first few months of 2009. In that period, you will see the PS3 sell more than the 360, unless Microsoft wants to lose money this genration.

*sigh*

I thought sales didnt matter? I thought games mattered?

Quofan

Sales do matter because it helps what and how many games developers make for each console.

I think the real problem is that people are getting their fanboy hats on without actually looking at the big picture and seeing how similar the 360 and the PS3 are ... if MS make a push into mass market this year i really doubt they will fail and just abandon the 360 with their next console ... secondly for the next couple of years the PS3 will remain a good way of getting into Blu-ray and that will be a system seller .. but after that we'll be in the same possition we are with DVD players where they are far cheaper than a PS2.

The first format to get left behind will be theWii , but i think considering it's success it will make Ninty a shed load of money and it's successor will have a fairly solid start !

[QUOTE="Prid3r"]

Europe : pretty much a tie till the end . ( In france , they hate the PS3 for some reason )

America : 360 will still outsell PS3 every month . Unless the PS3 drop to 99$

Japan : both fail miserably , but PS3 still manage to sell around 50k each month ....

Software : 360 !

EmperorSupreme

PS3 has already sold more in France.

America: Who knows?? Why people shop cheap is a mystery. It costs more long run, it breaks, but hey it's $50 less right now. Home of the Walmart shoppers.

Japan: PS3 is dominating X360

Software: PS3, X360 is going to end like Xbox1 a shooter console only. Losing other territories like Europe and Japan will also eventually cost them developer support in those areas as well. Also Sony has twice the inhouse development of Nintendo and Microsoft combined.

Hey there nothing wrong with shoping at wal-mart. But you have to understand that the price for the PS3 compared to the 360 with total number of games makes someone want a 360. If the 360 was $50 more than the PS3 IMO it would still be outselling the PS3 based on the games that are on the market right now.

But I can see a point where the PS3 will outsell the 360 but we may be a year off from that point.

Sorry, but you're reaching bigtime. First off, no matter what there are still only so many people with HD TV's and everyone isn't near as concerned with Blu Ray and HD-DVD as you seem to think. Second, you act as if MS has nothing going for them this year or next. Newsflash, its software that placed MS in its current good position and that's not likely to change. With Ninja Gaiden 2, Gears 2, Mass Effect 2 and 3, Bunjie's new IP, and whatever else they have planned, the next two years are going to be damn solid. The PS3 will gain ground on MS, this year no doubt and Japan will be its biggest help. In the US PS3 sales will improve but not eclispe the 360 IMHO. As for price drops, a 360 one will spark more sales than a PS3 one becasue at the end of the day there are more people looking to game than watch HD movies. And if gaming means the most to you IMHO the 360 is where you want to be. Expect IMHO at least two price drops for the 360 and massive announcements at the GDC in Febuary. Newsflash again, Sony's showed the vast majority of their hand for 2008 with Home, Killzone, Resistance 2, MGS, FF, LBP, and blu ray. What honestly has MS annoucned for the 360 this year in the way of exclusive games, release dates, new Ip's, price drops, new Xbox live games, new movies, and unannouced sequels?

Nothing really.

I don't think anyone truly can predict anything until at least each company has laid their 2008 plans on the table. Cause I tell you if the 360 hits that 300 price mark, announces Gears 2 this year, a new freee pack in for the 360, release dates for new downloadable content for Halo, Mass Effect and GTA4 that will make a massive difference in keeping the 360 very profitable and strong in America and Europe. So until MS shows its hand at he GDC you might want to hold off on predicting trends when you gun is only half loaded with what Sony is doing. PS I use In my humble opinion cause I don't make predictions I gurantee to be true. You might want to try that.

Microsoft can beat Sony in America this gen and be solid in Europe, but more importantly than both, it can claim a huge chunk of the gaming pie unlike last time, while laughing at the huge peice Sony lost. And when the 720 hits if they ensure no hardware problems I think they will be profitable in their gaming division here on out. As for MS losses thus far, its all a part of their game to win in the end, long term. They are no longer losing money. So even though the hole of losses is deep it isn't getting bigger, its getting smaller. And with an insane attach rate and tons of million sellers and a great deal of franchises that sell they are in a very good place to hold off the PS3 until at least mid to late 2009. By then they'll still be in the black even if they are in last place. And at the end of the day isn't that what business is about, Making a profit, being compettive in market share, and building a solid name for your gaming division. All three of those are MS hallmarks in the 360 era. Don't expect that to change, IMHO:)

ozmandayus

Fair enough. I reached, with certainty to boot. Why? I never said the PS3 will beat the 360 in overall sales in 2008. I said in the long run, however long it takes for Sony to stop making the PS3. If you can see the PS3 will be coming out of factories long after the 360 is discontinued, you can see that the PS3's overall install base in America will be more than the 360.

As far as for HD movies. Sure, not everyone is interested in them now. I am not talking about just now; I am talking years and years down the road. It should be obvious to you that in a year or two HD movies will be common knowledge.

As for what is being planned for 2008 and beyond. Well, whatever Microsoft has in store, you can bet Sony can hold its own. If microsoft has something so mindblowing in store, it will most likely keep it for the next round, instead of having it associated with an unreliable machine that's pretty much dead in Japan.

OK. LET'S START A GOOD DEBATE. Here's what I had written earlier. Please read and tell me why you still think the PS3 won't beat the 360 everywhere.

1. World-wide install base. This will encourage developers to make a larger variety of games even here in the US. In a year or 2 (3rd at most) ADVANTAGE: the PS3.

2. Reputation. Reliability and previous generation install base. ADVANTAGE: the PS3.

3. Graphics in games. Last year, most multiplats look and play better on the 360. Not this year. Which means, developers are starting to master the PS3's power. Starting this year and beyond, the games with the best graphics will be on the PS3. ADVANTAGE: the PS3.

4. Non-gaming features but very useful to have. Blu-ray. Enough said. ADVANTAGE: the PS3.

5. On line play. Believe it or not, LIVE actually limits the number of people who will buy the 360. LIVE is like the plaque to casuals. ADVANTAGE: the PS3.

6. Quality of games: debatable and subjective. ADVANTAGE, unclear.

I can list more, but for now, 5 out of six aspects listed above favor the PS3 in terms of sales. Now, number 6 is about games. Sure enough, the quality of games coming out for each system can't be predicted. But judging from the first party exclusives in Sony's portfolio, the PS3 at least can hold its own with the 360 this year and beyond. That said, with 5 out 6 in Sony's favor and 1 out of 6 debatable, I say it again: without a doubt the PS3 will beat the 360 here in the US.

UPDATE:

7. Cost. After a year or two, it will cost move to play gams on the 360. Advantage the PS3.

No, the PS3 will lose in the US, and that will make it lose worldwide.Eponique

The Wii is not winning in the US right now, yet it is winning world wide.

Japan yes

Europe yes

US dont think so

No, the PS3 will lose in the US, and that will make it lose worldwide.Eponique

When price will drop more or first higly anticipated games gonna release this and next year,you gonna see the crazy europeans and japanese boost PS3 sales like crazy

[QUOTE="Eponique"]No, the PS3 will lose in the US, and that will make it lose worldwide.AzatiS

When price will drop more or first higly anticipated games gonna release this and next year,you gonna see the crazy europeans and japanese boost PS3 sales like crazy

What highly anticipated games would those be?

MS is going to lower the price of the 360 Pro to $299, Arcade $199, and Elite to $350. I doubt Sony is going to announce another price cut until November if then. Also what is to stop MS from making a Blu-Ray add-on to the 360. Since Blu-Ray diodes have gone down in price. Sony can't get all their partners to not allow this since it means more money for them.

PS3_3DO

Why would Microsoft lower the price of the 360 before Sony does around November? Why would Microsoft want to lower its price before the PS3 at all? Remember, Microsoft is still paying for the Red Ring of Death. They can't afford to lower their price this early when they are still significantly ahead of the PS3 in monthly sales. To lower the price significantly before Sony does in November, Microsoft would have to lower the price again when Sony does so for the holiday period or risk losing sales to Sony big time in the all important shopping season. Microsoft can't afford to reduce their price twice in one year. Remember, they care more about profitabilty than install base this generation.

Blu-ray add-on for the 360. I guess you haven't my earlier post in this thread. The add-on won't happen this generation. I would be very, very suprised if it comes out, unless Microsoft is smoking something. Sony stands to gain more from this add-on, actually. The 360 is too unreliable and noisy to have use as a Blu-ray player. Why would anyone risk buying the add on knowing that when their 360 reach 3 yrs and RROD comes, their add-on becomes useless? Sure, I can see a lot, maybe around 10 to 20 percent of the owners buy the add-on, but this group doing so only validates the importance of Blu-ray and reduce Microsoft's attempt to speed up adoption of HD downloads. Also, because of the econonmy of scale, the add-on, though cheaper than the PS3, will still be quite expensive, unless Microsoft wants to lose more money selling it cheap. Last but not least, making the add-on, gives Sony a big marketing advantage as consumers will see that the 360 plus the add-on are more expensive than the PS3, thereby increasing the value of the PS3. To Microsoft, giving Sony this marketing advantage isn't worth selling the add-on.

Hmm. 360 supporters are starting the see the value of Blu-ray.

[QUOTE="PS3_3DO"]

MS is going to lower the price of the 360 Pro to $299, Arcade $199, and Elite to $350. I doubt Sony is going to announce another price cut until November if then. Also what is to stop MS from making a Blu-Ray add-on to the 360. Since Blu-Ray diodes have gone down in price. Sony can't get all their partners to not allow this since it means more money for them.

nogginkl

Why would Microsoft lower the price of the 360 before Sony does around November? Why would Microsoft want to lower its price before the PS3 at all? Remember, Microsoft is still paying for the Red Ring of Death. They can't afford to lower their price this early when they are still significantly ahead of the PS3 in monthly sales. To lower the price significantly before Sony does in November, Microsoft would have to lower the price again when Sony does so for the holiday period or risk losing sales to Sony big time in the all important shopping season. Microsoft can't afford to reduce their price twice in one year. Remember, they care more about profitabilty than install base this generation.

Blu-ray add-on for the 360. I guess you haven't my earlier post in this thread. The add-on won't happen this generation. I would be very, very suprised if it comes out, unless Microsoft is smoking something. Sony stands to gain more from this add-on, actually. The 360 is too unreliable and noisy to have use as a Blu-ray player. Why would anyone risk buying the add on knowing that when their 360 reach 3 yrs and RROD comes, their add-on becomes useless? Sure, I can see a lot, maybe around 10 to 20 percent of the owners buy the add-on, but this group doing so only validates the importance of Blu-ray and reduce Microsoft's attempt to speed up adoption of HD downloads. Also, because of the econonmy of scale, the add-on, though cheaper than the PS3, will still be quite expensive, unless Microsoft wants to lose more money selling it cheap. Last but not least, making the add-on, gives Sony a big marketing advantage as consumers will see that the 360 plus the add-on are more expensive than the PS3, thereby increasing the value of the PS3. To Microsoft, giving this marketing advantage isn't worth selling the add-on.

I am starting to see that the 360 supporters are starting the see the value of Blu-ray.

First the price it costs to make the 360 is going down just like the PS3 is. The new 65nm GPU chip is going to be in the Summer and that means the 360 is going to be much more reliable. So you can say the RROD is going to be over and sales are going to pick up on news of this. Another thing the price of the 360 is always going to be cheaper then the PS3. Stand alone Blu-Ray players are coming down in price so the advantage the PS3 has being the cheapest Blu-Ray player isn't going to be there for much longer. XBL movie downloads now are getting James Bond movies from MGM that tells you something.

[QUOTE="black_awpN1"]In total WW sales? Possisbly. theres a rather good chance.But in America? eh, not so much.nogginkl

[QUOTE="nogginkl"][QUOTE="black_awpN1"]In total WW sales? Possisbly. theres a rather good chance.But in America? eh, not so much.Senor_Kami

Well, thanks for making an effort. Give me a little more credit than saying that I have nothing but opinions.

When you look at sales trends, you don't just look at the numbers. You ask why those numbers are the way they are and see if the exlanations hold true long term. Let's talk about America. I'll give you props for bringing out sales numbers vs a year ago. The rate of increase shouldn't be surprising for the 360, though. In early 2007, available exclusive games were pretty weak. A the start of 2008, availalabe exlusive game are much stronger.

As for the PS3 in early 07, people were buying the PS3 just to have early-adopter status, despite a major lack of games. In 08, the early-adopter status is a non-issue, and good games are still perceived as lacking. Also, multi-platform games are still perceived as better on the 360. In addition, while Blu-ray has basically won the format war, most mainstream gamers don't know or care about it yet. Exclusives on the PS3 are significantly inferior to those on the 360. However, ALL these negatives for the PS3 are temporary, and are just starting to unravel, and its sales will pick faster than the 360. Care to make a bet, since you believe in past sales so much?

All 3 undeniables you listed are about past sales, helped mainly by games already sold. These undeniables are not long-term advantages. I will list the long term advantage for the PS3 again, for you below. I never said the PS3 will outsell or outperform the 360 in 2008, overall. I said the PS3 will might outsell the 360 DURING the holiday season of 08. I am not the only who thinks this way. Michal Pachter does as well.

Last year, Blu-ray didn't have a fatal blow towards HD-DVD. It just started this January, dude. A very BIG difference. RROD hasn't mattered much because all consoles with RROD are still fixed free by Microsoft. The negatives about RROD should appear again in late 2008 when the 3 year warranty starts to run out. Expect RROD to come back and haunt Microsoft.

Now compare the undeniables you listed to my list below. Yours should appear weak. Remember I am not talking about sales in 2007 or 2008, even. I am talking about life time sales for each console in America. Below are the advantages for the PS3 that hold true now and later, unlike your 3 undeniables.

1. World-wide install base. This will encourage developers to make a larger variety of games even here in the US. In a year or 2 (3rd at most) ADVANTAGE: the PS3.

2. Reputation. Reliability and previous generation install base. ADVANTAGE: the PS3.

3. Graphics in games. Last year, most multiplats look and play better on the 360. Not this year. Which means, developers are starting to master the PS3's power. Starting this year and beyond, the games with the best graphics will be on the PS3. ADVANTAGE: the PS3.

4. Non-gaming features but very useful to have. Blu-ray. Enough said. ADVANTAGE: the PS3.

5. On line play. Believe it or not, LIVE actually limits the number of people who will buy the 360. LIVE is like the plaque to casuals. ADVANTAGE: the PS3.

6. Quality of games: debatable and subjective. ADVANTAGE, unclear.

7. Cost. After a year or two, it will cost move to play gams on the 360. Advantage the PS3.

I can list more, but for now, 6 out of 7 aspects listed above undeniably favor the PS3 in terms of sales. Now, number 6 is about games. Sure enough, the quality of games coming out for each system can't be predicted. But judging from the first party exclusives in Sony's portfolio, the PS3 at least can hold its own with the 360 this year and beyond. That said, with 6 out 7 in Sony's favor and 1 out of 7 debatable, I say it again: without a doubt the PS3 will beat the 360 hear in the US.

This year, you will see insecurity being expressed by more and more 360 supporters. No doubt about it. The PS3 has basically won Japan. It's winning weekly sales in Europe, and should surpass the 360 there in life-time install base by summer or fall. In America, the value of the PS3 is being appreciated more and more. Its games are getting better as developers master the PS3's power. Its reliability is being talked about. Blu-ray is pretty much the next-gen format. And the HD DVD fanboys (basically accepting defeat) aren't trying to malign the PS3 like last year. You see, last year, the PS3 had to fight the 360 supporters AND the HD DVD supporters. Not this year and going forward. In forums like Gamespot and other sites, negativity towards the PS3 has been much down relative the last year. So, this year, with major exclusives coming, the PS3 is looking very good indeed.

Smart thinking for Microsoft would be to accept third place world Wide, fight for 2nd place in America, and leave this generation with some profits. If lemmings here hope that Microsoft will be 2nd place world wide, you'll be disappointed. The most likely scenario, to me, is that even in America, the 360 will be last. In fact, it's without a doubt.

Microsoft will chose profits over its place in the system war. They were willing to lose money to get their name in the game last gen. With the first XBOX, they lost more than 4 billion dollars (?), and with the 360 they still haven't made money overall. Last year, they made a few hundred millions, but this doesn't make up for the more than 1 billion dollars set aside for the Red Ring of Death. Also, don't forget the money they lost for selling the consoles at a loss the last two years. The XBOX brand is already well known now. So, they must care more about profitability than selling the most consoles, and using this profitability for the next round of system wars.

GOING FORWARD:

In 2008, I can see Microsoft dropping the 360 by 50 bucks with a bundled game or two. Microsoft won't do more than that. To drop $100 or more this year, would cost Microsof too much money. They wont do it. Also,the prices of the 360 and the PS3 will pretty much go down in tandem, if one goes down, the other must respond, with the PS3 continuing to cost $50 to $100 more. So, because of Blu-ray, the overall value of the PS3 will always be better than the 360. Not only that, while Microsoft was busy trying to design a more reliable console and to make the Vista operating system an excellent choice for gaming, Sony's been investing heavily in exclusive games. So going forward, expect exclusive first party games to be a lot better on the PS3. With Blu-ray becoming the next-gen movie format, expect movie enthusiasts to dip into gaming as well, buying games on the PS3.

Microsoft will not make LIVE free. The thing with LIVE is that it's a cash cow for Microsoft, though it scares the casuals like the plaque. Developers have already assumed that the 360 is a hardcore's console and have invested their money accordingly. Making LIVE free to attract casuals doesn't make sense. Because even when LIVE is free, there aren't enough games that attract the casuals--developers haven't planned for it. So Microsoft will continue to charge for LIVE and scare away the casuals in the process. Casuals and Wii owners looking to buy/upgrade their video game sytems and DVD players, will flock to the PS3-- because the PS3, not the 360, makes the best use of the HD TV; only the PS3 can do HD gaming AND HD movies.

This generation will last longer than previous generations. Developers will want to recoup their investments in this generation first before getting to the next one. Developing for the PS4 or XBOX 720 would cost too much to make the games look significantly better than those on the PS3 or the 360. Games like Ratchet and Clank already look similar to a PIXAR movie. Games on the PS4 or the 720 will need to basically match a PIXAR movie. The budget for such a game will scare away even the big publishers. So, Microsoft and Sony have no choice but to wait for developers to recoup their investments and make some easy money. By then, the price difference between the 360 and PS3 will matter less and less, and the value of the PS3 only increases relative to the 360. Also, the longer this generation lasts, the superior power of the PS3 will be more and more realized. In addition, the longer this generation lasts, the more likely current PS2 owners will upgrade to the PS3.

Finally, Microsoft will choose to make some profits this generation and accept 3rd place everywhere, Japan, Europe, and America. It then tries to be the first to bring out their XBOX 720 on 2010 or later, not before, for reasons discussed above. Sony, may bring the PS4 out at the same time or a year later. Regardless, Sony will continue to sell and support the PS3, just like the PS2, especially since the PS3 will continue to retain it's value as a Blu-ray player. Unlike Sony, Microsoft (and developers) will not be as proactive in supporting the 360 after its 720 is out, because the 360 doesn't have the world wide install base of the PS3. So, even after the 360 stops selling in the US, the PS3 will. Thus, there is no doubt that the PS3 will beat the 360 here in the US, let alone Japan and Europe.

UPDATE:

For those of you who think the 360 will beat the PS3 in America, try to determine which one will still be in the shops while the other is discontinued. Elsewhere and here in America, it's the PS3 that will be in the shops and the 360 that will be discontinued. That's because there'll be more demand for the PS3; the Blu-ray player makes it a very cheap way to get into HD movies. Also, more software will be made for the PS3 because of its higher world wide install base. In short, more demand=longer life span.

nogginkl

So you admit that it will sell more because it a movie player? Because it doesn't push gaming sales and it won't.

The more demand thing you stated.. well then the wii is gona be here for long time....

Well anyway the ps3 will not pass the 360 EVER!!

Thats because its already 6 - 7 million ahead.. Dont post VGchartz either because if they are right then at the rate the ps3 is outselling the 360, it should outsell it by ummm NEVER!!

However I dont think Vgchartz is right anyway

stopped reading at: without a doubt.

you can not be certain. understand that.

Always-Honest

I read the whole thing, and it should be a system wars requirement that if you make statements such as:

"Casuals avoid xbox live like the plague"

or

"Developers have already assumed that the 360 is a hardcore's console and have invested their money accordingly" They should back up these statements with at least one source. Basic high school/college stuff

Ambitious. Not sure if it will happen.

I can say:

Without a doubt, the PS3 is the better machine for me because of reliability.

[QUOTE="Jandurin"]Funny, I think Japan, Europe, and NA belong to the Wii, or very shortly will. I guess I must have missed a year.SambaLele

why do people bring the Wii in a PS3x360 thread?

isn't that off-topic?

No, because you can't say a console has won a region and is "dominating" while excluding the third console.

[QUOTE="Always-Honest"]

stopped reading at: without a doubt.

you can not be certain. understand that.

nogginkl

You certainly have a close mind. I CAN be certain! You understand that! It's my mind, my thinking. And I actually, back with reasonings with thought-out supporting statements, too.

[QUOTE="Senor_Kami"][QUOTE="nogginkl"][QUOTE="black_awpN1"]In total WW sales? Possisbly. theres a rather good chance.But in America? eh, not so much.nogginkl

1. outright guess.

2. reputation is a hard thing to REBUILD.

3. opinion. they are more equal than any generation before.

4. a movie format that has less than 3% market share? try again.

5. opinion. people will play where their friends play. more people on 360 ATM.

6.good call. first one you got right.

7. what? the 360 will always be cheaper.

in summary: 7 out of 7 aspects lead to you making things up to make yourself feel better about your purchase.

Just wait...

Ravenlore_basic

[QUOTE="nogginkl"]

[QUOTE="Senor_Kami"][QUOTE="nogginkl"][QUOTE="black_awpN1"]In total WW sales? Possisbly. theres a rather good chance.But in America? eh, not so much.deathtoallgods

1. outright guess.

2. reputation is a hard thing to REBUILD.

3. opinion. they are more equal than any generation before.

4. a movie format that has less than 3% market share? try again.

5. opinion. people will play where their friends play. more people on 360 ATM.

6.good call. first one you got right.

7. what? the 360 will always be cheaper.

in summary: 7 out of 7 aspects lead to you making things up to make yourself feel better about your purchase.

very well siad! This guy is making up hopefull realitys and is trying so hard to turn his opinions into facts. Graphics in games? the topic starter needs to undertand that this isnat last generation, where the xbox had a HUGE advantage over the ps2!

[QUOTE="Senor_Kami"][QUOTE="nogginkl"][QUOTE="black_awpN1"]In total WW sales? Possisbly. theres a rather good chance.But in America? eh, not so much.nogginkl

[QUOTE="Shensolidus"]

HAHA, if you honestly think MS is gonna drop the price of their console once again anytime soon, think again. No, MS will not be the first console to reach $199. They just can't afford it. 360 sales are declining, and they are gonna start to feel the results of the Halo effect dying down. They just posted their first profits in their games division ever (2 quarters in a row), but they still have worldwide losses to think about.

Yes, the PS3 is getting alot of shooters, but we are also getting much more varied games. For example, Infamous. Or White Knight Chronicles. Or Tekken 6. Or LittleBigPlanet. Or Gran Turismo 5. Or Disgaea 3. The myth of the PS3 only getting shooters is just that, a myth. And while we are getting some really good looking shooters as exclusives, remember lemmings, your concerned with how the 360 does in America. If America is the biggest market for shooters, and the PS3 is getting the best shooters this year, where do the sales in NA go?

3picuri3

there will be a price drop with GTA4, or a bundle.

how did you forget GTA4? lol. probably the best system seller of last gen, and it has exclusive episodic content on 360 :roll: and fyi all the games you listed for PS3 are NOT system sellers, except GT5, but teh delayed to 2009. this is -- waiting.

Dude, who buys GTA? The casuals. They're not going to stand looking and both copies and say "OMG LOL DIS 1 HAS EXCLUSIVE DOWNLOADABLE CONTENT AMOUNTING TO ABOUT 8 HOURS OF EXTRA MISSIONS!"

Face it, GTA is associated with PLAYSTATION

[QUOTE="3picuri3"][QUOTE="Shensolidus"]

HAHA, if you honestly think MS is gonna drop the price of their console once again anytime soon, think again. No, MS will not be the first console to reach $199. They just can't afford it. 360 sales are declining, and they are gonna start to feel the results of the Halo effect dying down. They just posted their first profits in their games division ever (2 quarters in a row), but they still have worldwide losses to think about.

Yes, the PS3 is getting alot of shooters, but we are also getting much more varied games. For example, Infamous. Or White Knight Chronicles. Or Tekken 6. Or LittleBigPlanet. Or Gran Turismo 5. Or Disgaea 3. The myth of the PS3 only getting shooters is just that, a myth. And while we are getting some really good looking shooters as exclusives, remember lemmings, your concerned with how the 360 does in America. If America is the biggest market for shooters, and the PS3 is getting the best shooters this year, where do the sales in NA go?

Udsen

there will be a price drop with GTA4, or a bundle.

how did you forget GTA4? lol. probably the best system seller of last gen, and it has exclusive episodic content on 360 :roll: and fyi all the games you listed for PS3 are NOT system sellers, except GT5, but teh delayed to 2009. this is -- waiting.

Dude, who buys GTA? The casuals. They're not going to stand looking and both copies and say "OMG LOL DIS 1 HAS EXCLUSIVE DOWNLOADABLE CONTENT AMOUNTING TO ABOUT 8 HOURS OF EXTRA MISSIONS!"

Face it, GTA is associated with PLAYSTATION