Will PS4 outsell the PS2?

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Salt_The_Fries

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#51 Salt_The_Fries
Member since 2008 • 12480 Posts

@SolidTy because everybody bought PS4 for all those F2P, cross-gen ports and Indies. In fact i'll make a thread about it since I feel you demand it.

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SolidTy

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#52  Edited By SolidTy
Member since 2005 • 49991 Posts

@SolidTy said:

@Salt_The_Fries said:

There's nothing that can slow down the PS4. Fanboys have already made it clear that even the biggest drought of games coupled with nonexistence of PSN are non-factors.

"Biggest drought of games"?

There is bigger droughts out there....

@Salt_The_Fries said:

@SolidTy because everybody bought PS4 for all those F2P, cross-gen ports and Indies. In fact i'll make a thread about it since I feel you demand it.

I didn't demand anything. I posted 10 words and a picture showing total games for the machines.

I own the machines after all, so the difference in software is easy to compare every day, unlike your situation where you only have an Xbone to draw your experience.

However, you said, "biggest drought of games" and I simply provided evidence to the contrary. As a matter of fact, the number of games under the total games is the RETAIL games (88 games vs. 82 games). In the end, you said biggest drought of games, but perhaps you meant something else (exclusives? But then, that's only a couple of games advantage for Xbone, but alas you said "drought of games") since there is a 72 game difference in the PS4s favor when it comes to games across PS4 and Xbone, despite both machines being released at the same month/year (Nov 2013).

When it comes to getting a lot of games, so far this generation it turns out the Xbone is no Xbox 360...but then again, the Xbox 360 had an extra year on the market to get devs familiar with the machine and build up an install base.

Personally, as I said before, I felt 2014 lacking and both machines could be a lot better, but when it comes to talking about "droughts of games" the PS4 is not the leader in such a drought.

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SecretPolice

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#53 SecretPolice
Member since 2007 • 44066 Posts

Depends if they can get the PS4 DRE up to PS2 DRE levels. :P

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tormentos

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#54 tormentos
Member since 2003 • 33784 Posts

@Salt_The_Fries said:

@SolidTy because everybody bought PS4 for all those F2P, cross-gen ports and Indies. In fact i'll make a thread about it since I feel you demand it.

Who in hell told you all indies on PS4 are cross gen free games man.?

Hell many of those are actual next gen on PC and PS4 and not on Ps3,xbox 360 or xbox one..

For example Towerfall it was PC and PS4 only release on 2014,and has 87% Thats higher than most xbox one exclusives if not all of them.

I would take 60 indies over nothing...

Can you please pleaseeeeeee tell me what the xbox one has coming in the next 8 months.?

Now games with link and release date not Scalebound,crackdown and crap without release date...

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svaubel

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#55 svaubel
Member since 2005 • 4571 Posts

Not going to happen

Maybe, maybe it will hit 100mil.

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tormentos

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#56 tormentos
Member since 2003 • 33784 Posts

@super600 said:

It's currently selling about 14 million per year which is great, but not 100 million good. At the rate the console is selling it's guaranteed to break at least 80 million by at least year 4 or 5. The console needs to constantly sell at least 15 or 16 million per year to have a real shot at getting over 100 million since I doubt it will break 20 million in a single year ever which was what helped other consoles like the Wii get 100 million eventually.I pretty much expect the PS4's sales curve to eventually be really similar to the PS1, but with a better start and maybe a weaker finish.The console won't sell much past the wii if it does sell better than that console.

Yeah the PS2 in its first year sold 10 million so sony been at 18.5 yeah man that tell you something,oh and the PS2 was $299 the PS4 is $399 and still sold more,all PS consoles until now have sold more its second year than the First year,PS1,PS2,PS3 and i am sure the PS4 will do the same as well so probably you will see the PS4 sell more than 14 million units this year.

You say in 1 year they sold 14 million units but your wrong,the PS4 came on Noevember 2013 so until November 2014 it wasn't a full year,by that time sony had more than 14 million units sold,as they didn't sell 4.5 million units in Just december alone.

So actual 12 month basis they sold more than 14 million units,the PS4 was 12 months on November 2014.

Non sense the PS1 started way slower than the PS2 and reach 104 million hell is higher than the wii,which started even faster than the PS2 which decimated the PS1 in time frame selling units.

Is not how fast you start but how you can keep up something the wii failed to do,if the wii would have the staying power of the PS2 it would be now at 140 million or more probably,sony has more endurance in the long run look at the PS3 16 million away from the,because in the long run the wii died while the 360 and PS3 were able to keep the momentum going further.

I am sure sony will do more than fine and reach 100 millions.

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jsmoke03

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#57 jsmoke03
Member since 2004 • 13717 Posts

i dont think so. i dont think consoles are going to be dropped to $100 and japan isnt gaming as much on consoles as they were in the ps2 days.

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Heil68

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#58  Edited By Heil68
Member since 2004 • 60714 Posts

I dont think so. Now that MS is firmly planted in the game space there is another player to get sales, where as the PS2 enjoyed sales without MS for most of its existence.

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TigerSuperman

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#59  Edited By TigerSuperman
Member since 2013 • 4331 Posts

@SolidTy said:

@SolidTy said:

@Salt_The_Fries said:

There's nothing that can slow down the PS4. Fanboys have already made it clear that even the biggest drought of games coupled with nonexistence of PSN are non-factors.

"Biggest drought of games"?

There is bigger droughts out there....

@Salt_The_Fries said:

@SolidTy because everybody bought PS4 for all those F2P, cross-gen ports and Indies. In fact i'll make a thread about it since I feel you demand it.

I didn't demand anything. I posted 10 words and a picture showing total games for the machines.

I own the machines after all, so the difference in software is easy to compare every day, unlike your situation where you only have an Xbone to draw your experience.

However, you said, "biggest drought of games" and I simply provided evidence to the contrary. As a matter of fact, the number of games under the total games is the RETAIL games (88 games vs. 82 games). In the end, you said biggest drought of games, but perhaps you meant something else (exclusives? But then, that's only a couple of games advantage for Xbone, but alas you said "drought of games") since there is a 72 game difference in the PS4s favor when it comes to games across PS4 and Xbone, despite both machines being released at the same month/year (Nov 2013).

When it comes to getting a lot of games, so far this generation it turns out the Xbone is no Xbox 360...but then again, the Xbox 360 had an extra year on the market to get devs familiar with the machine and build up an install base.

Personally, as I said before, I felt 2014 lacking and both machines could be a lot better, but when it comes to talking about "droughts of games" the PS4 is not the leader in such a drought.

You can't use the year head start, MS started with throwing more money, they had also cut off the Xbox 1 and had some games moved from there, including PS2 multiplats. Even the same year as launch. they also got exclusives partnerships since they were still unproven in some markets like Japan.

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StormyJoe

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#60 StormyJoe
Member since 2011 • 7806 Posts

Threads like this make me want to petition for a "Cow Circle Jerk" board...

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Fairmonkey

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#61 Fairmonkey
Member since 2011 • 2310 Posts

Possibly but I don't know. Sony had a much larger market share and less competition. I wouldn't be surprised if it sold 100 million though

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remiks00

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#62  Edited By remiks00
Member since 2006 • 4249 Posts

I don't know, maybe? But it's highly unlikely. Times are much different now dude, the gaming demographic is different as well. PlayStation isn't nearly as dominant as it was during the PS2 era in gaming. They have a lot of competition these days. Xbox, for example.., has a huge following since the Xbox360's success. Mobile gaming is so damn huge now, etc, etc. But, Sony did a good job out of the gate this time. Hopefully, they can keep up the momentum. Just because they are doing good now, doesn't mean they will continue doing good. The gen has just started; it's a marathon, not a sprint. (Example: PS3 was dogshit last gen from the start imo, and it ended up being my most played system by the end of the gen.)

At the end of the day, why would it matter? PlayStation is popular enough to get enough support from your favorite franchises. Who cares if PS4 does/doesn't sell as much as PS2. Unless you're just being a Corporate Slave rep for Sony as usual. How much do they pay you cows?

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jakandsig

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#63 jakandsig
Member since 2010 • 471 Posts

By 2003, with all console having at least 2 years on the market the market share was

  • PS2 ~53%
  • Xbox ~37%
  • GC ~10%

By the launch of the Xbox 360 the market share was

  • PS2 ~65%
  • Xbox ~20%
  • GC ~15%

The current market share with only estimated sold-through for the 8th generation is:

  • PS4 ~45%
  • XONE ~35%
  • Wii U ~15%

Other ~5% (Mostly Android Consoles)

I believe that Xbox this time may be too high for there to be a chance for the PS2 to take over 60% of the market, which also includes it dominating in ever region it's released. Then you have to realize despite Ouya sales alone, there are ~6 other Android console on the market taking 5% from the High-budget companies, if that 5% was not there, Xbox one and PS4 would probably increase. But that is not the case.

It's clear that the PS4 got chopped due to not only Xbox brand increase but also the Android consoles. But let me be clear it's not ALL Android consoles in the 5% but most of it.

Let's go deeper though, and say Demand for the Xbox one drops and does not quite Double YOY but the PS4 does when both inevitably drop price around $300. That would put my estimates at:

  • PS4 ~50%
  • XONE ~40%
  • Wii U ~8%
  • Other ~2%

I estimate that Android and Other consoles, despite having new announcements and probably more players than 2014, will drop in mind share. The Wii U I estimate will also drop in mind share. This puts XONE at a slighter lesser ratio then the Original in comparison to the PS2. Remember, the PS2 had a year head start.

While Morph and the future of Playstation Vue are unknown, due to Morph I can't say it's deniable that PSMove may pick up again. The main issue is that Facebook has Oculus and they already have games being demoed, and this makes me believe that Facebook may enter the game after 2015.

Microsoft also has AR, VR, and still is pushing Kinect with a recently announced new team.

Wii U is a non-factor mostly but it still may have 5% of the market after 2015. It's hard to see the PS4 gain over 60% of the market like before. The only chance is how early VR will release, and how cheap they will make Playstation View, as well as how cheap they make the PS4 itself in 2016.

Despite what you read here it's really not the fault of price, or even brand mind share with Xbox, it's almost exclusively about how many players are on the market or coming to the market.

  1. A ton of Android Consoles are announced/rumored for late 2015 and 2016 launches, 4 of them claiming to put in high-end parts, 2 of them confirmed to be trying to have specs on par with a high-mid-range PC
  2. Facebook may enter the gaming market in some form, and if not with a console they will still take sales with Oculus.
  3. The Xbox One will be the only traditional competitor still selling well.
  4. A few smaller consoles or regional exclusive consoles will eat into market share (like the Zeebo did in South America and a couple other areas)
  5. Phones are rapidly advancing TV-Phone sharing technology, and by 2016, it may be possible to play Angry Birds with a ton of HD TV's whether wired or wireless. Some companies have already been demoing the GPS systems on the TV screen from handsets.

I may be wrong, and personally, I hope I am wrong because if Xbox One and Playstation 4 together with what the Wii u has left, are not at least ~40% of the market the video game industry will have a rapid shift to what a ton of gamers, including me, have been fearing for awhile. A PS4 win or an Xbox One win of ~50% market share by the end of the generation, or both together doing ~60% would be a relief. That would mean that the shift has been avoided and there's still a place for Consoles.

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SolidTy

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#64  Edited By SolidTy
Member since 2005 • 49991 Posts

@TigerSuperman said:

@SolidTy said:

@SolidTy said:

@Salt_The_Fries said:

There's nothing that can slow down the PS4. Fanboys have already made it clear that even the biggest drought of games coupled with nonexistence of PSN are non-factors.

"Biggest drought of games"?

There is bigger droughts out there....

@Salt_The_Fries said:

@SolidTy because everybody bought PS4 for all those F2P, cross-gen ports and Indies. In fact i'll make a thread about it since I feel you demand it.

I didn't demand anything. I posted 10 words and a picture showing total games for the machines.

I own the machines after all, so the difference in software is easy to compare every day, unlike your situation where you only have an Xbone to draw your experience.

However, you said, "biggest drought of games" and I simply provided evidence to the contrary. As a matter of fact, the number of games under the total games is the RETAIL games (88 games vs. 82 games). In the end, you said biggest drought of games, but perhaps you meant something else (exclusives? But then, that's only a couple of games advantage for Xbone, but alas you said "drought of games") since there is a 72 game difference in the PS4s favor when it comes to games across PS4 and Xbone, despite both machines being released at the same month/year (Nov 2013).

When it comes to getting a lot of games, so far this generation it turns out the Xbone is no Xbox 360...but then again, the Xbox 360 had an extra year on the market to get devs familiar with the machine and build up an install base.

Personally, as I said before, I felt 2014 lacking and both machines could be a lot better, but when it comes to talking about "droughts of games" the PS4 is not the leader in such a drought.

You can't use the year head start, MS started with throwing more money, they had also cut off the Xbox 1 and had some games moved from there, including PS2 multiplats. Even the same year as launch. they also got exclusives partnerships since they were still unproven in some markets like Japan.

Huh? I almost didn't quote you as you made no sense with that post and seeing your posts around SW where you will argue about everything even if you are proven wrong with pictures, I'm not eager to explain myself again since that would seem fruitless. I am fearful you don't comprehend some of the posts, but I'll explain this one more time.

I didn't use the 1 year head-start, the Xbox 360 used the 1 year head-start by releasing early in 2005, getting the jump on the competition. There is nothing wrong with that. Yep. You mentioned the Xbox 1 being cut off? Yep, that happened, but my post wasn't about the Xbox 1 (original). Sacrifices were made including the Xbox 1 early death. It doesn't change the fact the Xbox 360 benefited from nearly 10 million in sales in that first year alone and building up partnerships while Nintendo and Sony were still readying their consoles for 2006. Did you want to talk about the original Xbox 1 or something? I don't. It has nothing to do with droughts of games on Xbone.

The Xbone had no such "early release" advantage as the Xbone released last this time. Thankfully, the Xbone released on the same month as the PS4 a week later in November 2013.

My post wasn't about the one year head-start. The head-start mention was just a tiny blurb. My post is about the supposed "Drought of Games" inaccurate comment that I corrected with facts. However, I can and will use the one year 360 head-start as a fact any time I want because it did happen and it helped the 360 gain a foothold. The one year head-start helped the 360 out.

A year on the market without next gen competition can be beneficial. It's not always going to equate victory, but it certainly helps move units and form partnerships. Ultimately, my point was the Xbone is no Xbox 360 when it comes to securing games. Mass quantities of games. It's a different machine, and truth be told, the PS4 is somehow taken the 360 crown in securing a lot more games, despite the fact the PS4 and Xbone are one week in age apart. That's the strange part, and that's quite a feat so early in this generation to see a "72 game gap" between the PS4 and Xbone.

History and facts are okay.

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Douevenlift_bro

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#65 Douevenlift_bro
Member since 2013 • 6804 Posts

At this pace anything is possible. It's looking to be the new PS2 thats for sure

RETURN OF THE KING BABY!