A 100% chance at $1 million or a 50% chance at $1 billion?

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CrocodileNuts

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#1 CrocodileNuts
Member since 2009 • 189 Posts

Which would you take? :o

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Pirate700

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#2 Pirate700
Member since 2008 • 46465 Posts

The 100% at a million, assuming it's tax free.

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Ring_of_fire

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#4 Ring_of_fire
Member since 2003 • 15880 Posts
With taxes, or no?
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SolidSnake35

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#5 SolidSnake35
Member since 2005 • 58971 Posts
Million will serve me fine, thanks. Prefer pounds but beggars can't be choosers.
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lamprey263

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#6 lamprey263
Member since 2006 • 44560 Posts
I can make a million stretch.
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CrocodileNuts

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#7 CrocodileNuts
Member since 2009 • 189 Posts

The 100% at a million, assuming it's tax free.

Pirate700
It's tax free
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Funky_Llama

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#8 Funky_Llama
Member since 2006 • 18428 Posts
The million. Expectation value of money gained is lower but expectation value of utility gained is higher.
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Legendaryscmt

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#9 Legendaryscmt
Member since 2005 • 12532 Posts

I'd rather hav ethe million than lose the billion and wonder "what if?" for the rest of my life.

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gamerguru100

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#10 gamerguru100
Member since 2009 • 12718 Posts

100% for the million.

Piss off, 50%.

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deactivated-5b1e62582e305

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#12 deactivated-5b1e62582e305
Member since 2004 • 30778 Posts

The 50% for $1 billion.

YOLO

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jamejame

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#13 jamejame
Member since 2005 • 10634 Posts

I'd probably be happier with the million to be honest. The billion would probably go to my head and make me a lazy good-for-nothing. I'd take the million.

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DraugenCP

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#15 DraugenCP
Member since 2006 • 8486 Posts

Guaranteed million. I wouldn't know what on earth to do with a billion anyway.

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Funky_Llama

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#16 Funky_Llama
Member since 2006 • 18428 Posts
Related: one suggested utility function is u=log(m), where m is the amount of money you have and u is the utility gain. For this case, it does indeed predict that you should go for the million. Such a utility function also constitutes an interesting (though crude and simplistic) argument for the redistribution of wealth.
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flipin_jackass

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#17 flipin_jackass
Member since 2004 • 9772 Posts
I'd go for the billion.
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Pirate700

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#18 Pirate700
Member since 2008 • 46465 Posts

[QUOTE="Pirate700"]

The 100% at a million, assuming it's tax free.

CrocodileNuts

It's tax free

Then yes. If I took the chance on the billion and lost, I'd never forgive myself for not taking the million.

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DJ419

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#19 DJ419
Member since 2005 • 1016 Posts

A million isn't going to last me through to my retirement, I'll take the 50/50 on a billion.

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judog1

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#20 judog1
Member since 2005 • 24657 Posts

I would take the million. In reality though, it would not get you very far if you plan to splurge.

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BossPerson

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#21 BossPerson
Member since 2011 • 9177 Posts

A million isn't going to last me through to my retirement, I'll take the 50/50 on a billion.

DJ419
It could if you spend it properly.
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Pirate700

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#22 Pirate700
Member since 2008 • 46465 Posts

[QUOTE="DJ419"]

A million isn't going to last me through to my retirement, I'll take the 50/50 on a billion.

BossPerson

It could if you spend it properly.

It easily can. Just don't spend the million like you have a billion. At worst all you'd need is a little part time job a couple times a week.

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foxhound_fox

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#23 foxhound_fox
Member since 2005 • 98532 Posts
The risk doesn't seem like enough for a chance at 100 times more money. You wouldn't make for a very profitable lottery.
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Philokalia

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#24 Philokalia
Member since 2012 • 2910 Posts

The million could serve me for life.

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Pirate700

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#25 Pirate700
Member since 2008 • 46465 Posts

The risk doesn't seem like enough for a chance at 100 times more money. You wouldn't make for a very profitable lottery.foxhound_fox

I don't think he is proposing the question as a lottery.

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hensothor

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#26 hensothor
Member since 2011 • 522 Posts

A million isn't going to last me through to my retirement, I'll take the 50/50 on a billion.

DJ419
And $0 will?
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almasdeathchild

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#27 almasdeathchild
Member since 2011 • 8922 Posts

The 100% at a million, assuming it's tax free.

Pirate700

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SolidSnake35

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#28 SolidSnake35
Member since 2005 • 58971 Posts
[QUOTE="DJ419"]

A million isn't going to last me through to my retirement, I'll take the 50/50 on a billion.

hensothor
And $0 will?

Haha, exactly. If you risk a billion and get nothing, you look like a right tit.
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Michael0134567

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#29 Michael0134567
Member since 2008 • 28651 Posts

I'd be perfectly fine with $1 million.You know how many games I could buy with that?

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Bikouchu35

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#30 Bikouchu35
Member since 2009 • 8344 Posts

1 million, b.c when your poor student than you just want money not a whooole lot but 1m is pretty darn good. I dont want to chance the 50% urgghh.

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coolbeans90

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#31 coolbeans90
Member since 2009 • 21305 Posts

The million. Expectation value of money gained is lower but expectation value of utility gained is higher.Funky_Llama

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#32 branketra
Member since 2006 • 51726 Posts

That depends. What do I have to do for the billion?

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SPYDER0416

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#33 SPYDER0416
Member since 2008 • 16736 Posts

[QUOTE="hensothor"][QUOTE="DJ419"]

A million isn't going to last me through to my retirement, I'll take the 50/50 on a billion.

SolidSnake35

And $0 will?

Haha, exactly. If you risk a billion and get nothing, you look like a right tit.

But if you win, everyone who picked a million will look like a left tit.

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SUD123456

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#34 SUD123456
Member since 2007 • 6949 Posts

The 50/50 at a billion. An extra million wouldn't change anything for me.

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Pirate700

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#35 Pirate700
Member since 2008 • 46465 Posts

The 50/50 at a billion. An extra million wouldn't change anything for me.

SUD123456

You Uncle Pennybags or something?

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deactivated-5b1e62582e305

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#36 deactivated-5b1e62582e305
Member since 2004 • 30778 Posts

The 50/50 at a billion. An extra million wouldn't change anything for me.

SUD123456

Paypal me $100, please.

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jesuschristmonk

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#37 jesuschristmonk
Member since 2009 • 3308 Posts

The 100% at a million, assuming it's tax free.

Pirate700
Better not be roflmao. But yah. Guaranteed 1mil is 100x better than having only a 50% chance to get 1bil lol.
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Crunchy_Nuts

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#38 Crunchy_Nuts
Member since 2010 • 2749 Posts
While there is a risk that I may not get anything I would still opt for the billion. I believe that it is more likely that I may come across an opportunity to make a million later in life than I would ever get the chance to make a billion.
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SolidSnake35

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#39 SolidSnake35
Member since 2005 • 58971 Posts

[QUOTE="SolidSnake35"][QUOTE="hensothor"] And $0 will? SPYDER0416

Haha, exactly. If you risk a billion and get nothing, you look like a right tit.

But if you win, everyone who picked a million will look like a left tit.

Not really. We knew what we wanted.
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ZumaJones07

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#40 ZumaJones07
Member since 2005 • 16457 Posts
damn that's tough, but i'd have to take the million. use it to invest and make my own billion
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#41 foxhound_fox
Member since 2005 • 98532 Posts
Guaranteed 1mil is 100x better than having only a 50% chance to get 1bil lol.jesuschristmonk
So they are equal?
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Lostboy1224

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#42 Lostboy1224
Member since 2007 • 3425 Posts
but I want the million to be presented in Gold Bar form.
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Pirate700

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#43 Pirate700
Member since 2008 • 46465 Posts

but I want the million to be presented in Gold Bar form. Lostboy1224
Why? When the price of gold eventually tanks you'll wish you just had the money in the bank.

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CoolSkAGuy

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#44 CoolSkAGuy
Member since 2006 • 9665 Posts
All or nothing baby.
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deactivated-60e799a72eb68

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#45 deactivated-60e799a72eb68
Member since 2008 • 1678 Posts

I'd rather hav ethe million than lose the billion and wonder "what if?" for the rest of my life.

Legendaryscmt

I'd rather lose the million than wonder "what could I have done with 1 billion" the rest of my life.

Easy to say now, I know. :P

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jesuschristmonk

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#46 jesuschristmonk
Member since 2009 • 3308 Posts
[QUOTE="jesuschristmonk"]Guaranteed 1mil is 100x better than having only a 50% chance to get 1bil lol.foxhound_fox
So they are equal?

If you get the billion yes, but not if you get nothing lol.
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Pirate700

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#47 Pirate700
Member since 2008 • 46465 Posts

[QUOTE="Legendaryscmt"]

I'd rather hav ethe million than lose the billion and wonder "what if?" for the rest of my life.

6_Dead_360s

I'd rather lose the million than wonder "what could I have done with 1 billion" the rest of my life.

Easy to say now, I know. :P

Personally, if I took the chance at the billion and lost, I don't know if I could live with myself. :P

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jesuschristmonk

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#48 jesuschristmonk
Member since 2009 • 3308 Posts

[QUOTE="6_Dead_360s"]

[QUOTE="Legendaryscmt"]

I'd rather hav ethe million than lose the billion and wonder "what if?" for the rest of my life.

Pirate700

I'd rather lose the million than wonder "what could I have done with 1 billion" the rest of my life.

Easy to say now, I know. :P

Personally, if I took the chance at the billion and lost, I don't know if I could live with myself. :P

Yep lol.
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weezyfb

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#49 weezyfb
Member since 2009 • 14703 Posts
the million
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awesomeface

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#50 awesomeface
Member since 2007 • 3661 Posts
A million is more than enough for me.