A 100% chance at $1 million or a 50% chance at $1 billion?

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#1 Posted by CrocodileNuts (189 posts) -

Which would you take? :o

#2 Posted by Pirate700 (46465 posts) -

The 100% at a million, assuming it's tax free.

#4 Posted by Ring_of_fire (15660 posts) -
With taxes, or no?
#5 Posted by SolidSnake35 (58110 posts) -
Million will serve me fine, thanks. Prefer pounds but beggars can't be choosers.
#6 Posted by lamprey263 (24223 posts) -
I can make a million stretch.
#7 Posted by CrocodileNuts (189 posts) -

The 100% at a million, assuming it's tax free.

Pirate700
It's tax free
#8 Posted by Funky_Llama (18428 posts) -
The million. Expectation value of money gained is lower but expectation value of utility gained is higher.
#9 Posted by Legendaryscmt (12532 posts) -

I'd rather hav ethe million than lose the billion and wonder "what if?" for the rest of my life.

#10 Posted by gamerguru100 (10647 posts) -

100% for the million.

Piss off, 50%.

#11 Posted by Ackad (3183 posts) -

1 million

#12 Posted by Aljosa23 (25130 posts) -

The 50% for $1 billion.

YOLO

#13 Posted by jamejame (10480 posts) -

I'd probably be happier with the million to be honest. The billion would probably go to my head and make me a lazy good-for-nothing. I'd take the million.

#15 Posted by DraugenCP (8477 posts) -

Guaranteed million. I wouldn't know what on earth to do with a billion anyway.

#16 Posted by Funky_Llama (18428 posts) -
Related: one suggested utility function is u=log(m), where m is the amount of money you have and u is the utility gain. For this case, it does indeed predict that you should go for the million. Such a utility function also constitutes an interesting (though crude and simplistic) argument for the redistribution of wealth.
#17 Posted by flipin_jackass (9726 posts) -
I'd go for the billion.
#18 Posted by Pirate700 (46465 posts) -

[QUOTE="Pirate700"]

The 100% at a million, assuming it's tax free.

CrocodileNuts

It's tax free

Then yes. If I took the chance on the billion and lost, I'd never forgive myself for not taking the million.

#19 Posted by DJ419 (997 posts) -

A million isn't going to last me through to my retirement, I'll take the 50/50 on a billion.

#20 Posted by judog1 (24626 posts) -

I would take the million. In reality though, it would not get you very far if you plan to splurge.

#21 Posted by BossPerson (9475 posts) -

A million isn't going to last me through to my retirement, I'll take the 50/50 on a billion.

DJ419
It could if you spend it properly.
#22 Posted by Pirate700 (46465 posts) -

[QUOTE="DJ419"]

A million isn't going to last me through to my retirement, I'll take the 50/50 on a billion.

BossPerson

It could if you spend it properly.

It easily can. Just don't spend the million like you have a billion. At worst all you'd need is a little part time job a couple times a week.

#23 Posted by foxhound_fox (88743 posts) -
The risk doesn't seem like enough for a chance at 100 times more money. You wouldn't make for a very profitable lottery.
#24 Posted by Philokalia (3238 posts) -

The million could serve me for life.

#25 Posted by Pirate700 (46465 posts) -

The risk doesn't seem like enough for a chance at 100 times more money. You wouldn't make for a very profitable lottery.foxhound_fox

I don't think he is proposing the question as a lottery.

#26 Posted by hensothor (522 posts) -

A million isn't going to last me through to my retirement, I'll take the 50/50 on a billion.

DJ419
And $0 will?
#27 Posted by almasdeathchild (9517 posts) -

The 100% at a million, assuming it's tax free.

Pirate700

#28 Posted by SolidSnake35 (58110 posts) -
[QUOTE="DJ419"]

A million isn't going to last me through to my retirement, I'll take the 50/50 on a billion.

hensothor
And $0 will?

Haha, exactly. If you risk a billion and get nothing, you look like a right tit.
#29 Posted by Michael0134567 (28651 posts) -

I'd be perfectly fine with $1 million.You know how many games I could buy with that?

#30 Posted by Bikouchu35 (7457 posts) -

1 million, b.c when your poor student than you just want money not a whooole lot but 1m is pretty darn good. I dont want to chance the 50% urgghh.

#31 Posted by coolbeans90 (21305 posts) -

The million. Expectation value of money gained is lower but expectation value of utility gained is higher.Funky_Llama

#32 Posted by BranKetra (48777 posts) -

That depends. What do I have to do for the billion?

#33 Posted by SPYDER0416 (16736 posts) -

[QUOTE="hensothor"][QUOTE="DJ419"]

A million isn't going to last me through to my retirement, I'll take the 50/50 on a billion.

SolidSnake35

And $0 will?

Haha, exactly. If you risk a billion and get nothing, you look like a right tit.

But if you win, everyone who picked a million will look like a left tit.

#34 Posted by SUD123456 (4488 posts) -

The 50/50 at a billion. An extra million wouldn't change anything for me.

#35 Posted by Pirate700 (46465 posts) -

The 50/50 at a billion. An extra million wouldn't change anything for me.

SUD123456

You Uncle Pennybags or something?

#36 Posted by Aljosa23 (25130 posts) -

The 50/50 at a billion. An extra million wouldn't change anything for me.

SUD123456

Paypal me $100, please.

#37 Posted by jesuschristmonk (3308 posts) -

The 100% at a million, assuming it's tax free.

Pirate700
Better not be roflmao. But yah. Guaranteed 1mil is 100x better than having only a 50% chance to get 1bil lol.
#38 Posted by Crunchy_Nuts (2749 posts) -
While there is a risk that I may not get anything I would still opt for the billion. I believe that it is more likely that I may come across an opportunity to make a million later in life than I would ever get the chance to make a billion.
#39 Posted by SolidSnake35 (58110 posts) -

[QUOTE="SolidSnake35"][QUOTE="hensothor"] And $0 will? SPYDER0416

Haha, exactly. If you risk a billion and get nothing, you look like a right tit.

But if you win, everyone who picked a million will look like a left tit.

Not really. We knew what we wanted.
#40 Posted by ZumaJones07 (16458 posts) -
damn that's tough, but i'd have to take the million. use it to invest and make my own billion
#41 Posted by foxhound_fox (88743 posts) -
Guaranteed 1mil is 100x better than having only a 50% chance to get 1bil lol.jesuschristmonk
So they are equal?
#42 Posted by Lostboy1224 (3426 posts) -
but I want the million to be presented in Gold Bar form.
#43 Posted by Pirate700 (46465 posts) -

but I want the million to be presented in Gold Bar form. Lostboy1224
Why? When the price of gold eventually tanks you'll wish you just had the money in the bank.

#44 Posted by CoolSkAGuy (9665 posts) -
All or nothing baby.
#45 Posted by 6_Dead_360s (1663 posts) -

I'd rather hav ethe million than lose the billion and wonder "what if?" for the rest of my life.

Legendaryscmt

I'd rather lose the million than wonder "what could I have done with 1 billion" the rest of my life.

Easy to say now, I know. :P

#46 Posted by jesuschristmonk (3308 posts) -
[QUOTE="jesuschristmonk"]Guaranteed 1mil is 100x better than having only a 50% chance to get 1bil lol.foxhound_fox
So they are equal?

If you get the billion yes, but not if you get nothing lol.
#47 Posted by Pirate700 (46465 posts) -

[QUOTE="Legendaryscmt"]

I'd rather hav ethe million than lose the billion and wonder "what if?" for the rest of my life.

6_Dead_360s

I'd rather lose the million than wonder "what could I have done with 1 billion" the rest of my life.

Easy to say now, I know. :P

Personally, if I took the chance at the billion and lost, I don't know if I could live with myself. :P

#48 Posted by jesuschristmonk (3308 posts) -

[QUOTE="6_Dead_360s"]

[QUOTE="Legendaryscmt"]

I'd rather hav ethe million than lose the billion and wonder "what if?" for the rest of my life.

Pirate700

I'd rather lose the million than wonder "what could I have done with 1 billion" the rest of my life.

Easy to say now, I know. :P

Personally, if I took the chance at the billion and lost, I don't know if I could live with myself. :P

Yep lol.
#49 Posted by weezyfb (14703 posts) -
the million
#50 Posted by awesomeface (3661 posts) -
A million is more than enough for me.