New Theory: Konami going under?

Everyone has been looking at all the Kojima news as of recent as a sign that the developer and Kojima are going to be parting ways in some fashion or another. Whether he was fired, or quit, Konami's not talking about it, and Kojima's mysteriously disappeared from any sort of media. But what if we've been looking at it all wrong? What if Kojima's not the one leaving... but Konami is on its way out, instead?

Today came news from Guillermo del Toro and Norman Reedus via twitter that Silent Hills is as good as cancelled. Both the actor and co-director of the game have said things that make it seem as if the game is no more. However, more importantly is where Polygon mentions that "Silent Hills was, with Metal Gear Solid: The Phantom Pain one of only two console games actively under development to be published by Konami". If this is true, then that leaves Konami with only one active game being published under their label.

It's been pretty obvious over the past decade and a half that Silent Hill's sales have begun declining pretty steadily. Mostly due to a lackluster line-up of games in the series. So it wouldn't really come as a surprise, then, if Konami wasn't willing to bet everything it has on the expensive trio that were coming together for Silent Hills, just to see if they could maybe break even. What's surprising, though, is that Metal Gear Solid's sales haven't been as high as one might think they were. In April 2013, Gamespot posted this article stating that the entire Metal Gear Solid series has sold 33 million, which would sound impressive if it were just 4 games... except that between 1998 and the post date of that article, the Metal Gear Solid franchise had a solid 13 games in it, and that's if you don't count games like Acid Portable 1/2, Arcade, Touch, Social Ops, and Online (which brings the total up to 20+). 33 million sales between 13 games makes for about 2.5 million per game. Not a staggeringly impressive number for game sales these days, especially for an iconic franchise like MGS, when CoD, as mentioned in the GS article linked, had sold over 100 million units, and even Halo had sold over 50 million. Grand Theft Auto 5, alone, had sold 45 million units as of February this year.

The Phantom Pain has been in development since, at least, 2011 under the guise of Project Ogre. How long can a game be in development with no sales to speak of, to pay the people who are making it? Perhaps this is why Konami's found a sudden interest in demos. Between PT and Ground Zeroes, this generation's games from Konami have had a 100% pre-release demo of some sort, one of which was sold as a separate game. What if they needed to push GZ out there as a paid game, so they could actually fund the development of TPP? Selling a separate prologue to a game would essentially double the game's sales, at least, if not more (by generating interest, and adding sales), and you've charged $100 for two pieces of the same story, instead of $60 for one sale.

So what do you think? With Konami's publishing schedule cut in half, and the mysterious disappearance of their star quarterback, could this be the end? Could TPP really be the last MGS game, albeit, not by choice?

I suppose it's plausible. I haven't enjoyed a Konami game since the first MGS on PS1 so who knows.

They're also pulling the P.T. demo from the PSN on the 29th. I think Konami is collapsing internally. I think there might have been a falling out between them and Hideo Kojima, and it likely was bitter considering they axed Kojima's name from the credits of The Phantom Pain. While I may not care for the Metal Gear Solid franchise, I do love the Silent Hill games, and this is a depressing turn of events.

No I don't think this parting of ways between Konami and Kojima is because Konami is going under because if that were the case then there would be no reason to remove Kojima's name from already released game packaging.

They still have Pro Evo Soccer being published under their name..

I miss the NES days. Konami was amazing. Contra, Life Force, Castlevania, Metal Gear, Jackal, Blades of Steel, Double Dribble, etc. Good times.

I don't think anyone would be surprised if this were to happen. They've become pretty irrelevant and have tarnished most of their large name brands. Last year at E3 they rented out a giant space and had barely anything to show.

PT was the coolest video game hype I have ever witnessed. It was absolute genius. I am now the saddest lamb in all of the land.

I'm pretty sure it has been explicitly stated somewhere that Konami is shifting toward smartphone/tablet game development. Oh, those delicious micro-transactions.

I don't remember where I read that, but it seems plausible. Mobile games are where it's at right now if you just want to release garbage and have a high chance of making money hand over fist.

konami is in trouble i think MGS5 could be there swan song

Perhaps. I'm also wondering if they are looking to the mobile games market in Japan and thinking of focusing on it with their reknown name as leverage. Would be cheaper for them.

Silent Hills is officially cancelled: http://www.gamespot.com/articles/silent-hills-cancelled-konami-confirms/1100-6426919/

-Byshop

If Konami collapses, I hope their IPs go up for auction and get purchased by some decent publishers.

http://www.polygon.com/2015/4/27/8503893/konami-delists-itself-from-new-york-stock-exchange

Called it?

@dotWithShoes: the next PES hasn't even been hinted at, btw. 2015 was announced in January of 2014, the year it released. And it got a price reduction just last month, only 5 months after release.

Konami was at their best during the 16-bit era both on home consoles and in the arcades with games like:

• Super Castlevania IV
• Contra III
• Sparkster
• Axelay
• Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
• Lethal Enforcers
• Gradius III

They lost much of their talent when a bunch of devs left to form Treasure. They had a poor time transitioning to 3D when the Playstation an N64 launched and have been mostly going downhill ever since with few notable games. It'd be a shame to see them go but honestly the writing has been on the wall for a pretty long time.

@mjorh said:

that seems surprisingly accurate.

I thought this thread might be an overstatement but maybe not. Konami is removing their listing from the New York Stock Exchange:

http://www.ign.com/articles/2015/04/27/what-is-going-on-with-the-business-of-konami

-Byshop

I wouldn't doubt it, considering that they've cancelled on of their most anticipated games in a well loved franchise, and Kojima seemingly became the topic of rumors discussing his leaving with little context or explanation. While i haven't heard many rumblings about economic struggles from Konami, a recent look at their stock shows that it's notably down, a trend that I only anticipate will continue with the official cancellation of Silent Hills. Perhaps the company is going under, but until I hear more than whispers, i'm going to stay strong

If they collapse, I hope their IPs get bought by Sony or Nintendo or other good publishers also. The Mystical Ninja franchise is one of the IPs that should be bought.

I think Konami is just going to drop out of the video game industry entirely and place all of their efforts on creating slot machines for casinos. It doesn't seem entirely unreasonable as Konami's arcade machines were designed to take money from the player. Why not just go one step further and eliminate gameplay components from machines?

I honestly hope so at this point. Maybe Igarashi can get his hands on the Castlevania license and finally do The Battle of 1999.

Wouldn't bother me in the slightest if they did. They just lost the only real talent they had left with Kojima gone. If they keep going you know all they'll end up doing is milking MGS with a ton of sub-par spin-offs and uninspired sequels until it eventually becomes the next Assassin's Creed.

No, they're not going under. Konami is involved in other industries from Gambling machines and other interactive services.

But I'm pretty sure they're exiting from videogames completely or they're reshaping their place in the videogame market. Would suck if they hold onto the IPs and either do nothing with them, or milk them to the ground.

MGS Pachinko machines. With 45 minute long cutscenes every time you win, that you have to watch before it pays out your money.