Forget the console wars, the real battle is to stay relevant

There seem to be a lot of self denial from me and most core gamers alike but the truth is the numbers are speaking heavily about this being the last generation of consoles. Before people start mentioning GTAV numbers or COD numbers, those are for the software, not the hardware. This generation remains really Vital for what the future gaming landscape would be like and at no time than ever.

Publishing/Development houses have more powers to create a driving force for where people would consume their games. I am actually doing my dissertation on this topic and even i am finding it difficult to argue against the case of console relevance. At the moment the PESTEL forces are against the gaming industry, mostly from Political, Economical and Social circles and then Substitute products are having really big impact on the market than it ever has in anytime in history.

The handheld market is already dead for dedicated mobile consoles and the more developers keep trying to cater to the mainstream, an audience that console manufacturers have largely ignored in favour of the core market, the end story aint going to be preety. Publishing houses are at no time than ever spreading their product on any device they can find, it is giving a real headache for consoles to argue their relevance when dedicated gaming enthusiast can spend big and game on a PC, while casuals can game on their iPads, leaving the core in between and the lines are shrinking even more

Sources: http://www.edge-online.com/features/forget-the-console-wars-the-real-battle-is-to-stay-relevant/

http://www.economist.com/news/technology-quarterly/21584433-video-games-newest-games-consoles-look-surprisingly-underpowered-and-are-very?fsrc=scn%2Ftw%2Fte%2Fpe%2Ftheraceisnottotheswift

Consoles are an obsolete way of playing games that will inevitably disappear. The only question is "when?"

If we get another 5-7 years generation, chances are that before the end of it, your phone will be stronger than your PS4. Imagine the implications of that.

Meanwhile I'm still enjoying both console and handheld games that are very relevant to me, and I'm sure there will be another Sony and Nintendo system after PS4 and Wii U, and despite this trend of smart phone casualness there will be continued support for Nintendo handhelds.

So not a single **** is given this day.

The PS3 and Xbox 360 have sold around 80 million units each, with the Wii selling another 100 million units.

More hardware has been sold this gen than any other. There is no evidence whatsoever that consoles are a dying breed, infact the evidence shows their audience is growing.

@ReddestSkies:

Yeah, exactly the point. Even though i am not completely sure that Phones will become stronger than consoles in the same life cycle, the relevance factor would still be in play. Most gamers are not really seeing the graphical leaps per say, the impact is not as strong as the move from 2D to 3D and once Phones which have 2yrs refresh cycles (compared to consoles that have 7-8yrs) reach the level where they are comparable to current generation visuals, consumers will not be tempted or interested much in consoles, especially the mainstream audience whom tend to have negative ideas of what consoles are. The hardcore would shift to PC as can be seen in these message boards, that leaves consoles with a very small market to tuggle between the X1 n P4, it is not looking preety at all and developers for a fair portion are to blame for this shift

I have no reservation with regards to this being the last generation of the console. Processor performance has plateau to a large extent which has cause the market to stabilized. This stabilization would reduce the overall cost of hardware(it has already ) and what consumers would be left with is general purpose machine that is capable of doing everything computer related. Whether it be gaming, watching movies, browsing the net, checking the whether, news etc. The notion of a dedicated gaming system is a concept of the past. But, what do I know, I am crazy. :D

I love how people ignore this: MS, Sony, and Nintendo have made millions upon millions the last decade with their console sales. Exactly where is any proof that this trend will not continue? Consoles have a place in the industry, just because some people don't see that doesn't mean they'll go anywhere.

Presale numbers alone for the new consoles are pretty impressive. People saying a dedicated gaming machine is a dying thing are forgetting something. There are so many people who present a demand for a dedicated machine, and demand creates supply. As long as developers support the idea of a dedicated system, and they will continue to do so if they're smart, consoles won't go anywhere.

Speaking of 'console wars' though, that's such a stupid idea. The term 'war' implies there is only enough room for one, which just isn't true. Retire that phrase already.

*claps* +1

Not to mention sales for games like Pokemon, Tomb Raider, Halo, Final Fantasy and many other console franchises. A lot of people also seem to forget that these smartphone "sales numbers" are nothing more than 2-year freebie contract agreements that you don't tend to see in console/handheld purchases.

3DS sales are booming and that also gets overlooked somehow.

And what will come in its place, phones? tablets? PC connected to the tv?

It is actually pretty stupid to think consoles will go away. they might change to become a more mediacenter, but they will never go away and i always laugh when people talk about "mobile-gaming" as the next "console".

Well yeah, it's not like the Gameboy led to the downfall of the console all those years ago, or PCs, which have always been more powerful than consoles.

And congrats on missing the boat 100%

Mobilegaming is not going to exclude console-gaming, like console gaming is not going to exclude pc-gaming or mobilegaming.

Mobilegaming has its own small games and will not become anything but a new platform we can play on, not a replacement.

And i honestly dont get why it has to be one or the other? its almost like listening to systemwars, Xbox one or Ps4 discussion, because its not like you can buy both.....

I was going to make a considered reply to this topic, but then you made that ridiculous claim about handhelds.

If you think i miss the boat, then you do not even see the boat. Mobile gaming at the moment, given their not so sophisticated nature are already displacing handhelds as the gaming on the go platform, the numbers do not lie.

The idea that i am ascribing to a notion that tablets will become the main gaming machine is wrong, what you did not see is all the parts of the puzzle in the explanation. At the present rate, the core market have become a minority in the gaming spectrum and while Sony and Microsoft are not yet so keen on the mainstream audience, their growing numbers will-given the current rate-eventually cause a shift we core gamers do not want. We are already seeing it with developers trying to simplify or dumb down games.

Here is where the console issue comes into play, consoles are great devices no doubt but the rate of innovation in the mobile space is faster than consoles, obviously it does not mean that mobile phone will do what a PS4 can in the same life cycle but a Tablet may eventually put out PS3 like visuals in the same life cycle, that right there spells trouble. Because at the moment, console makers know that they have reached a point of diminishing returns with graphics and no amount of investment they put in can woow the audience like it did back in the 90s, hence why both manufacters opted for already known chip sets rather than custom made ones.

Even if they still want to go that graphics route, they have already been outperformed by PC's, so what you have is the enthusiast audience are already going PC, as you can already see with the 'master' race issue we have here on the forums lol. Then on the other end of the spectrum, you have casuals whom-given the current situation will not make the jump to consoles anytime soon as Tablets/mobile have them on lockdown. These people will raise their kids in a mobile mentality and that is a worrysome trend for console manufacturers who have found it difficult in this modern age of shorter attention spans to make the controller non intimidating to casuals.

So where is consoles in this equation, they are finding their borders shrinking from both side of the coin, PC on one end and mobile on the other end. As i stated before, the Publishers/Developers are the drivers of this shift, given that every publisher wants to make a buck, they are spreading their products on any device they can find, all those B level studios that closed down are the ones creating these PC/mobile games that are turning to be banes on the console space and you can obviously see the reaction from the manufacturers by making their systems more accessible for developers (used to be closely regulated), but at this point, the boat may have sailed.

Rather than dismiss this notion, how about you look at the sources i have posted earlier and conclude for yourself

@El_Zo1212o: Is the claim really non founded?

I disagree with even including DS & PSP sales on the same chart as mobile phone apps. No one is buying mobile apps in place of handheld console games (which is what your chart is suggesting). A new market emerging doesn't mean an old one is dying.

Graphics have never been the driving force behind consoles, if they were PCs would have relegated them to obscurity years ago. Consoles have always been about kicking back on the sofa and enjoying games with friends and long play sessions of epic single player games. It's why PC releases are so different to consoles, both exist without being detrimental to each other. Sure there's a lot more cross over these days with lots of games getting released on consoles and PC but there are still entire genres that fit better on PC than console and vice versa. They provide fundamentally different experiences.

When last did you visit the Arcades bro?.....Just saying

So your "evidence" is smartphone software sales outpacing handheld software? You do realize that the smartphone software is abundantly cheap $2 games vs dedicated $40 games right? Penny candy will always outsell expensive cakes unit to unit.

My assumption is that Sony is anticipating Nintendo and Microsoft to drop out completely hopefully after this gen so that Sony would be the only one left. I do believe this is going to happen. Kind of like Walmart making it nearly impossible to compete with so than the other companies are seemingly dropping slowly but surely. I definitely see PS4 as being the only surviving console. I just don't think Sony would ever be discouraged by a slow economy as Japan always looks into the future in like 100 year increments. So it's slow now but in 15 years it may be bigger than ever. Microsoft proved to the consumers that they are not a gaming console developer so the video game aspect of what they are trying to do will die out and it would just be seen as a entertainment device.

What are you on about now?

The 3DS has sold around 35 Million units since launch, and the Vita is 'failing' and still shifting around the 6 million mark. Your assumption that the handheld market is dead is just wrong. Just because mobile phone apps are being played doesn't mean any other market is suffering, just as the 3DS and Vita aren't cannibalising Wii/Wii U or PS3/4 sales

@barrybarryk: Emerging market?....how is that emerging when most of these people where the people who bought the Wii back then. Also this is the first time in a long while that a new console cannot match or outperform current PC's on the market and rightfully so, the cost to product custom chip sets are high and the returns on investing in that tech is no more viable, both AMD and Nvidia already been doing those on the PC for while, so the need to build another custom chip is not worth it, hence why you see both consoles going the AMD standard route..

Yes i am well aware of the form factor for consoles but that is not the kind of things that compell consumers to spend that hard earned cash. I have pre ordered a PS4 and i am due to get hands on with the Xbox One this saturday but i cannot deny the numbers, they never lie, the industry has been on a slope and the current install base for consoles are shrinking in comparison to PC and mobile which are growing, both end serve different markets, but they are taking away from the console space too which is where the worry comes from.

We as consumers have no problem, because no matter what we would still game somewhere, but the console manufacturers are desperately in a tight spot and given the average life cycle of these consoles, it wont be a rosey ride for both unless these consoles were created to be more robustly morph-like so they can quickly adapt the the present average consumers habbits. As i said, kids these days are more familair with smart phones than they are with controllers, that is something to digest

@Bigboi500: I do see your point, but it shows where the install base is at the moment. That is something that attracts developers to that platform, do you think it is coincedence that developers are pushing more games to the Tablet/Mobile space in comparison to say....the Vita. Mothers are seeing the option of buying their kids or themselves a Tablet as a more attractive investment in comparison to handheld consoles but then again, what do business people know right. The focus of the debate though is on the main home consoles which are-at the moment in a very tight spot. Yes the pre order numbers are high and we would sell the first super million this holiday season, but when dust settles and the first wave already got a PS4, who is Sony going to sell to next, is it the super hardcore who already owns a kick ass PC and can play most of the PS4 games on his PC or is it the casuals who do not see gaming as a main hobby who prefer their Angry bird fix on the iPhone or would Sony give more incentives for us the core to buy 3 PS4's each

You think this is the first time PCs have been more powerful than consoles? You're very, very wrong there. Pretty much the only time consoles launched with more gaming chops than a PC was with the NES.

And what makes you think PC gaming is growing? It seems pretty stagnant to me, and I've been gaming on PC since Civ 1 and Doom on my 486DX

Sources: http://www.cinemablend.com/games/PC-Gaming-Hits-20-Billion-2012-Has-One-Billion-Gamers-Worldwide-54115.html

http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidewalt/2012/03/07/valve-gabe-newell-billionaire/

As others have said, I think it just means the gaming market is growing and offering more options, and that we will all just have more options for gaming in the future. No doubt there's more money to be made from cheap simple games than complex ones in the mobile market, but that doesn't mean there's no market for them in the future.

I agree that console sales are declining and will continue to do so, but just like with dedicated mobiles, there will continue to be a market for them, and things are always changing in ways we can't see currently.

Who knows what the future of gaming holds? A few years ago we didn't expect the non-gamer to even be a factor in the market, or casuals to play the role they're playing. I think an ever-expanding consumer group is a good thing for this industry, regardless of what platform they'll be selecting.

@Bigboi500: Well that is exactly the issue bro, us as consumers will be fine but consoles.....It pains me to even think about it, perhaps because i have grown up with gaming on consoles, but they are in a very difficult spot going forward. I really hope they do not loose their relevance cause it would honestly suck in every way possible. I do not want to play my next Uncharted via a streaming device connected to Gaikia via a mini dongle or do i wana play it on a Tablet connected to a TV either. I prob sound like a grand paa who likes his old horses over automobiles but whatever right

Steam growing doesn't mean PC gaming is eating up market share, if anything PC gaming is losing it. This should be readily apparent to any PC gamer that's spent the last 5 years playing console ports and suffering the complete lack of strategy games on the market compared to just a few years ago. PC exclusives are pretty much gone with the exception of middle market and indie games with pretty much every big release going to consoles. Just look at Diablo III, hell even id's last game on PC was a poor console port.

Thanks for sharing, man. I've been slowly noticing the writing on the wall for a few years now. Hopefully there'll be a place for hard copies in the future, I really like the ability to hold a game in my hands.

@Pedro:

Pedro....you are not entirely off base here....Game consoles will be more about services, rather than hardware next generation. What we will see next gen, is a device that resembles a set top box, has no built in disc drive, or HD and is connected to the internet.

I think consoles are still relevant. Console and gaming has never been bigger

It you see a console as a specific piece of technology, then, yes, consoles will eventually go away.

But consoles are in truth a business model more than anything else, so while the method of selling the product may change (going from hardware in the box to hardware outside of the box on the cloud, for example), the fundamental experience for the consumer will not change. Whatever is after the PS4 and X1, it will still involve buying access to closed libraries of games offered by competing brands, which is exactly what we've been doing for years.

There is simply too much money in licensing for a company like MS or Sony to just shrug their shoulders, and the structure that these multi-billion dollar corporations bring to selling games will continue to draw prospective developers to them in their escape from the deluge of shit that mobile gaming in its battle royale development climate is unleashing on the world.

You call my thinking "stupid" while saying that consoles will NEVER go away. Quality posting, as usual. How will people play video games in the year 2113? On dedicated gaming consoles hooked to TVs. In the year 2213? On dedicated gaming consoles hooked to TVs. In the year 3000? On dedicated gaming consoles hooked to TVs.

You remind me of those 80s sci-fi movies that would show people using CRT monitors on space ships.

I guess that rings very true about the business model bit, since consoles had always remained the gold standard for what sustainable business was for publishing houses, we all expect most gaming to done on them but as this particular generation showed, the gold standard has been shaken heavily as software development cost ballooned and the consoles, which traditionally provided a safe haven for publishers has now become a bit unstable in that regard. If we add to the fact that the smart device craze that has swept our worlds recently and the emergence of digital retailing (Steam on PC, iOS and Andriod for mobile) which consoles have not fully embraced, it is no suprise that consoles are now playing catch up with the other competing devices. Perhaps that would explain why both Microsoft and Sony have invested heavily in their cloud technology, perhaps the writting is indeed on the wall and in the future, we wont have to purchase expensive hardware right out of the gate, but we would pay subscriptions to access the services they provide. Very worrysome future for old school console gamers like myself

I predicted a while ago that handheld gaming will be dead after the 3DS thanks to the rise of mobile gaming. I have no idea what the future of console gaming will hold, it could potentially go on forever but I've also considered that the next gen could be the final gen, it all depends on whether its really a sustainable business model.

Despite all your arguments can you mention 2 or even 1 AAA console game that would even be able to be played on a mobile device? or are you counting on that people will start to play smaller games like Farmville or Cowclickers?

Because in the end what sells a device is not the device itself its the games that sells, so as long as mobile gaming is nothing but P2w games and small farmville type games, consoles have nothing to worry about. Also again with the one or the other type of thinking, its like listening to debate that went on when consoles first came, PC gaming is dead, now everyone will go to a console, and now 3 generations down, PC is still here and strong as ever.

XCom: Enemy Unknown got a fairly faithful mobile port.

Can you stop posting ITT now?

Hmm, i wouldn't call Xcom a AAA title so please try again.

"In terms of the scope of the project, is XCOM the kind of endeavour, investment and staff level we're used to seeing from triple-A console games from 2K?

Jake Solomon: Absolutely. We're 50, 60 guys, I don't know exactly. We've been working on it for three-and-a-half, four years. It's a big, big game. It's definitely as big as any game we've ever made at Firaxis. It's huge. It's a bit like piloting a big old boat."

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2012-03-06-firaxis-xcom-is-a-very-very-big-budget-game

Stop littering this thread with your awful posts. The OP is bringing up arguments backed with data, and you respond with stupid one liners and thinly veiled insults, while not even addressing his arguments.

Are you even serious now? GTA IV had 1000, GTA V had what was 2000+, Tomb Raider had pretty much the same and a 200mill budget. So who cares what this guy calls Xcom, in the definition of a AAA game its not even close.

So please stop now before you just make a bigger hole for yourself.

Also the OP doesn't come with one solid argument or any data to back anything up, what he is doing is just assuming a bunch out of something he doesn't quite have the data to understand.

Because in the end only argument is needed to disprove any doomsday idea this guy and you have. "What games would sell mobile gaming over console gaming" as i said, games sell the device not the device itself.

Unless you really want to claim that people will go and play farmville and forget about the great AAA titles on the consoles.

Well I agree with both sides of the discussion. I believe manufacturers are trying to prolong this business because it's profitable. I'm not aware they made anything that could help game developers create great games. On the contrary, their consoles is what holding game developers back with the insane amount of storage next generation games require and the little storage next gen consoles offer. I do believe they set the standards for quality in games but I also see it as a way to control content of games.

Both of you are actually right. Reddest smart phones will eventually catch up to consoles but at the moment, no smart phone can play current, very recent current gen games because they're very large in size. But a reason why consoles still sell and a reason why I buy them, the main reason actually, is exclusives. Exclusives, especially for new studios, are more profitable when releasing through consoles than through none. Thanks to gameplay videos and forums everyone nowadays know about indie games released on steam and less known games. But they still don't sell as high as ones released through console makers.

So I'm positing the consoles in the far future would eventually just become hosting OS's in the future like Steam, running on a multitude of different light PCs from hardware manufacturers we've rarely heard of.

and instead of console wars we'll have major distributor wars akin to (the music industry latter 90's) with Steam in the lead for user base, EA on it's heels. Microsoft encroaching with some new reintegration of XBOX Live & Windows, and some dastardly push to keep Direct X the default graphics API for high demand high graphic games.

Then Sony Playstation's gonna need to really gate keep the Japanese, International content thats usually featured on their platform, and get stuff out of it's owned studios to provide content that you can't play anywhere else. (Unless such games run on Linux which folks might emulate and supposedly get running on Steam anyways.

Oh the uncertainty. Who am I kidding. Who knows what the heck'd happen in 10+ years. The internet and the way we consume media could be fundamentally different at this going rate. Defend Net Neutrality! ulrp.

What about trying to answer the question instead of avoiding it by trying to attack me personally?

Also what did you want to prove with that article? because you clearly didn't seem to catch what was said in that keynote , which is what that article refers to, so perhaps next time instead of just googling something, try to actually read what was said, because of course Infinity blade is not more profitable than Gears of War or Call of Duty if we talk $ for $. And what you also seem to forget is that for every Infinity Blade and Angry Birds there are 1000 games out there that never made it. So its pretty much a lottery and there are plenty of great games out there that never made it into the spotlight.

but you know what, you and the OP can spell out doom for consoles all that you want and think mobilegaming is going to be the next black. While the rest and the gaming world are clever enough to know that its not a question about "one or the other" mobile gaming is just a new platform where you can enjoy some fun games next to consoles.

At the moment, there's still a gap between phone and console hardware, but it's becoming smaller and smaller. My phone has 4x as much RAM as my Xbox 360, and it has a quad-core cpu. Mobile devices are evolving much faster than consoles, and so eventually there will be no gap anymore. Storage space is still an issue, but it will eventually be solved.

I'm not saying that phones will directly replace consoles. But the current console model is obsolete: you just shouldn't release on the market a technological device that uses the exact same hardware for 5 to 7 years. And both PC and mobile gaming have companies that are trying really hard to make a breakthrough in the living room. Steambox and those Android TV interfaces are marginal devices right now, but as technology improves, that type of devices will become a serious threat to console gaming. If your phone becomes stronger than your console, and you can link it wirelessly to your TV, what do you need a console for?

My quote clearly specifies that we're talking in terms of man years invested versus revenue, not in absolute numbers. When will you stop?

Keep it civil, guys. Remember the golden rule: Don't be a dick.

The future ain't what it used to be. It's the story of forever. I generally don't feel safe about any predictions when it comes to technology, however I feel perfectly fine about predictions that come down to money. And there is just too much money in licensing (what is it now, $10 for every game sold goes right to Sony or MS, without them having to worry about overhead, material or development costs, etc). At least the immediate future would appear to be the continuation of closed platform OS gaming, which is basically the heart of the console model.

We gotta keep in mind, regardless of what technology is available, money drives the application of technology. Do we honestly believe we couldn't have had alternative energy years ago in the US? But oil makes too many people too much money, and so we have barely even scratched the surface of technology that is by no means cutting edge. MS and Sony will do all they can to keep the world on that closed platform model, thought how it is delivered physically may change.

What about reading what i wrote instead of just digging your hole deeper?

I asked you what did you want to prove with that link, and i clearly got that it said man hours, which is why i also mentioned that there are literally 1000 upon 1000 of failed games out there for every Angry Birds or Infinity blade. So despite using a ton of extra man hours for a game like Gears or any other AAA title, the end profit in $$$ is 100 times greater than hitting it with one Infinity Blade, which is all that matters.

But lets see when the new consoles hit, and see if you and the OP doomsday talk has anything on it, or its just a load of hot air. even tho GTA V sales records prove the point that right now and in the near future, consoles are as strong as ever.