To be frank, it's too early to tell, I think. Personally, I think Bioshock has the capacity to appeal to different genres of more hardcore gamers, including both FPS and RPG/Adventure game fans... but whether or not it goes well mainstream just depends on whether or not it gets good press and whether or not the quick descriptive "blurb" that casual/mainstream gamers hear about it appeals to them or not.
In other words, superficial appeal (or lack of it) when it finally comes out will probably be the determining factor. Since it's a dark shooter with a lot of atmosphere and depth however (somewhat in the vein of FEAR, but with adventure/roleplaying aspects) as well as roleplaying elements (which are part of the depth), I would predict that it would appeal to many mainstream gamers though, as it has a lot of visceral appeal.
Unlike Psychonauts, for instance, which has so many layers and is so eclectic, that mainstream gamers and even gamers in general "didn't get it", although if they'd actually played it, they probably would've liked it quite a bit. I really have to put "bad marketing" at fault for a lot of Psychonaut's lack of sales though, personally. The commercials and ads I saw showed nothing of the coolest things in the game!
**spoilers** like when you become a giant monster and stomp around a city full of 50's-esque Lungfish, or wander through an eerie suburban neighborhood where cameras are snapping at you everywhere and government agents are (unsuccessfully) pretending they're just part of the populace and aren't up to anything...**spoilers**
Seriously, some of the most ambiguous commercials ever! I just don't see how they managed to leave out all the coolest things in the game and show us only the most superficial and uninteresting things about it!
But back to the topic: I think it's too early to tell, but I'm leaning towards Bioshock being not too weird for mainstream, because it's weird in the extremely interesting/deep/compelling way that most people would just sum up as "Weird... but in a good way."
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