War in Ukraine. Did the West handle the post Cold War era badly?

Woke up this morning to the inevitable news that Russia has invaded the Ukraine. Immediate thoughts are with the innocent civilians, many of who have already lost their lives.

My question is why would Putin invade a neighbouring country knowing the inevitable reaction from the West? He obviously knew that they would face economic sanctions, a devaluation of the Ruble, a loss of trade and more…and yet it didn’t deter him.

His ultimate justification for the invasion is based on bare faced lies and already debunked propaganda, but the chain of events dating back to the collapse of the Soviet Union are the real reason for this aggression.

Is there any understanding for his point of view?

As much as we distrust Putin, he distrusts the West. This is based on ¨promises¨made by NATO, that they would not expand Eastwards when former Soviet satellites gained their independence in the late 80s. NATO were recently promising that Ukraine would and could not join NATO, and Putin sees this as the beginnings of discussions that would ultimately see another border country containing Western troops.

The NATO betrayal and what it means today

Have we handled the post Cold War situation wrongly? How did relations that were at a high in the 90s deteriorate to this point? Why did the US dismiss Mikael Gorbachev when he declared in 1990 "You say that NATO is not directed against us, that it is simply a security structure that is adapting to new realities ... therefore, we propose to join NATO."?

Thoughts?

The world allowed it to happen, the US could have sent the troops in. Hell, the UK could have even helped.

Always see it this way, having enemies means the military industrial complex can remain active.

Do you think Russia cares about economic sanctions when most their economy at this point is based on the export of energy, which Europe cannot simply stop buying? Russia controls Europe's energy supplies, so it controls Europe. That is why he knows nobody will do anything to stop him. The weak "leadership" in Europe is what has allowed this to happen. The regulations, taxes, and generally hostile attitude towards nuclear, natural gas, oil, coal by the people claiming to be environmentalists (they're really just shills for foreign energy companies, let's be real) are why Europe has to buy from Russia.

The question is, since west Europe has put themselves in the position where they cannot do anything, who does Russia invade next?

@Random_Matt: Wouldn’t the US sending troops into Ukraine prove Putin’s point? Public opinion in the US would never approve of ground troops in yet another foreign war, and Putin knows this. My question was actually were we too quick to expand East after the Cold War?

Edit; The UK is one of the few countries that have supplied weapons for the Defense of the Ukraine, but as it stands the UK army is insignificant….spending and personal cuts have put it in the weakest state since the first standing army was formed. Wouldn’t like to think what would happen if they faced Russia on any battlefield.

@sakaixx: What worries me more is the current massive military expansion by multiple countries. They wouldn’t spend billions unless they knew war is coming.

@eoten: I already said he doesn’t care about sanctions. He’s shown that this morning.

Putin is saying he was pushed into this corner by Ukraine asking to become a NATO member state….and although NATO stated that couldn’t happen, the West also gave assurances that NATO would not expand eastwards when the Soviet Union collapsed.

There’s no justification for his actions, but is there an understanding for his concerns, and could we have done more to calm them?

Well as you've already pointed out, his "concerns" are merely excuses, not actually based in reality. Ukraine is rich in fuels. In all likeliness, they were invaded for their resources more than anything else.

Russia took two regions of Ukraine the other day, they waited how the West would respond (very meagerly) and then initiated this attack.

Putin said that if Ukraine would join NATO he would initiate the attack, it looks like that requirement was not really necessary for as we now know: war monger Putin wanted it no matter what.

@eoten: We’ll, I meant his excuses for invading. He’s claiming Ukrainian forces have shelled Russian troops, and that he’s sending troops in a “peacekeeping” mission. Bullshit.

His “concerns” are separate and as he looks at it, we have expanded NATO presence eastwards. That is reality.

We helped empower and Hitler with crippling financial demands after the First World War, which was a disastrous policy and they handled things very differently after the Second World War.

I think we should have done more to bring Russia in line with democratic values after 1990…too late now, we just have to pray things don’t escalate.

@R4gn4r0k: That’s true, but he would say he is invading Ukraine because if he didn’t, it would inevitably become a NATO member. Make no mistake, he thought long and hard about sending troops into a Ukraine standing on its own, but he would not want to tangle with NATO.

Dunno, today's news leads me to believe he always planned the invasion, as soon as he started putting troops along the border.

This is just like Hitler in 1939: seeing how far he can go, and committing attrocities to probe the west and see how little they are willing to respond.

At this point, whether Putin wanted or not, it was a lose/lose situation for putin, Putin's support back in russia was declining. And so was his grip on the country, this is nothing more than political theatre to garner power and support in his own home country.

However, what you guys should know is that both Russia and Ukraine are some of the largest exporters of Grain. Expect price of bread to go up dramatically.

I have many problems with the direction capitalism has gone more or less since WWII (but especially in the last 20 years) but the West got it right. Democracy rules, kings/czars/autocrats suck.

Russia lost, and they deserved to lose.

Putin wants to be Czar.

Don't mistake this as wanting to return to the Cold War; Putin wants to return to authoritarianism. He lives in a vacuum where the only voice he hears is his own.

In his insane, lengthy, rambling, and baffling speech he made references to old Russian history that predates the Cold War.

If I was Eastern Europe or Turkey, I'd be reeeeeeeeally concerned right now and turning to NATO for some help. Hell, I think many nations have already begun taking in more troops.

Thankfully Russian history is also full of violent revolution so hopefully when those sanctions get bad enough the people will get rid of Putin.

It's a diaspora andzionism kind of deal, of sorts; any country with a significant amount of Russian-speaking people belongs to Russia in Putin's eyes. "Oh you have a lot of Russians, therefore you are Russia"

This is why the lie about genocide is so important to him, he needs to go in and "save" Russians in other countries from their host country. This is why he has invaded these two specific regions of Ukraine where there is a strong pro-Russia activist group, and why the Ukraine as a whole should be concerned.

Yep. EU and US failed Ukraine.

@dabear: You would be ok with a direct military conflict with Russia? Or do you mean we let them down through other means?

Pretty insane to watch unfold.

Expect China to see the approach the world took here because who will stop them when they crush Taiwan?

agreed.... flash back to 2018.... Trump was calling this out heavy and European leaders got pissy about him calling it out

If you take the view that Luhansk and Donetsk are independent nations separate from Ukraine, then Putin has done nothing wrong. Both parts have largely been controlled by separatists for quite a few years now.

The west does not like to see some nations split up, while it's very eager to see others fragment.

I don't think anyone here on this GS forum really knows how many in these regions support independence or unity, its entirely possible that the majority prefer their homeland, but of course, western media will not portray it as such to the point of refusing to acknowledge its existence.

Take a look at Crimea for instance, the west calls it an annexation, a deplorable act by Putin, but many polls have shown that Crimeans are in fact supportive of returning to Russia.

But of course, Ukraine can argue that no matter the level of support, the land is an inseparable part of Ukraine and they will have a point there too.

Perhaps, it's better not to demonise Putin's actions so eagerly and really understand the situation before fully taking a side.

He was right. European nations have bankrolled every weapon being used against Ukraine right now by their energy dependence on Russia. Just like we are bankrolling the weapons being made by China that will almost certainly be used against our allies soon enough.

Europe is too weak to take care of itself. That is a failure of their leadership.

Biden opened the door with this by cancelling Keystone XL while supporting Nord Steam 2. Then, his "dove" comments about not helping Ukraine in the event of an invasion further emboldened Putin.

Would I be OK with a direct military conflict with Russia? If need be, yes. But, Russia would not be invading Ukraine if we had sent troop support to Ukraine six months ago. Outside of a nuclear deterrent, Russia does not have the military might to tangle with the United States.

As for the EU, history has shown time and time again that they are a bunch of doves who will let an aggressive country run riot.

I disagree, capitalism has been a big loss. Just for the massive mess of pollution and the toxic waste, landfills. That alone has completely sunk capitalism. If capitalism doesn't incorporate the price of things like waste and pollution, its already lost. Then you add in patents, trademarks, IP, which are all just means of legalized theft of public wealth. Don't forget doctors and other professions that are regulated so hard, that people are forced into bankrupty for health care for life saving treatment. There are no perfect capitalist societies in the world, but our version is a scam, even when comparing to other western countries. No country has it perfect, but it doesn't help when we go out and force our "ideals" of scam patents, trademarks, and IP laws on other countries. Or degrade other countries professionals just for regulation purposes and to keep our people filthy rich.

Trump failed us

Trump hasn't been in office for over a year.

The left really does have a special kind of disorder. This F up is on Biden. That's what happens when your leader is a weak bumbling moron.

NATO needs to take the lead.

There the right goes again, personally attacking anybody they don't like. What do you want Biden to do? Go to war so you can bash him over that? Put in was going to invade no matter what, Trump was the one that hurt NATO and emboldened Putin. Get help

It's on Putin. Man the right has lost it.

NATO is a joke and Ukraine isn't in it.

Duh. But the effects of his terrible "presidentcy" are still being felt.

QFT

Russia knew all along what kind of weak responses US and EU would have to this world. It's the reason why he chose an invasion.

The reaction from EU and US should've been swift and brutal. Mobilisation of NATO army in Ukraine: fight off Russian troops.

Hey I'm not happy that they let the invasion start but NATO needs to take the lead. They should have allowed Ukraine in years ago. They should have done something when Georgia happened. But the US is divided, never thought I'd see the day Americans praised a Russian despot and derided an American president and blamed him for Russia's actions. The last administration appeased Putin. Helped divide the country for Putin. This is what we have now. NATO needs to get troops there IMO. Now.

Such as what exactly?

When you say NATO, do you mean someone like France, Germany, or do you mean the US? And take the lead how? What should they do? You just said "never thought I'd see the day Americans praised a Russian despot and derided an American president and blamed him for Russia's actions." then proceeded to blame Trump. You don't find that hypocritical? At least those blaming Biden are blaming someone who is actually in power.

How did Trump appease Putin?

WTF? Keystone XL is irrelevant. It was never more than redundant capacity to Line 3 which has been put into service late last year. XL cancellation has not constrained Canadian production and we have never really been constrained since we ship by rail when pipeline capacity becomes scarce.

Nord Stream2 is a German decision. Notice how it actually got substantially built on Trump's watch? Biden has not opened the door on the basis of energy. That is patently delusional because these energy decisions are years and decades in the making.

Having said that, rejoice because this wakeup call will fundamentally alter energy dynamics in Europe. NAmerica is fully capable of supplying Europe via LNG. This point is made HERE by the CEO of EQT which is the largest NG producer in the US. This is also an excellent letter in describing the NG mess in the US made by uninformed politicians, particularly in New England.

This literally has nothing to do with Biden, the right is really gas-lighting hard on this.

The role of an American president has always been to keep evil dictators in check. Biden failed at this. And somehow the left managed to blame Trump. Talk about gas lighting.

Are you suggesting we send troops? Because that is the ONLY way to keep things in check. Also don't you complain about the US being the world police? You can't have it both ways.

But why didn't he do this under Trump?

Yeah, Putin needs an external enemy to gather support again.

Kinda odd that he doesn't want Nato as a neighbour, so instead of working with Ukraine, he will rather control it so he has Nato as a neighbour. Btw Russia already has a shared border with a Nato country...

The GOP removed helping Ukraine from their platform when Trump was their candidate. Putin was letting Trump's division happen in the US first to paralyze the appetite to stop him. Had Trump been re-elected, this would be happening now. It's been Putin's plan for more than a day dude. Wake up.

Putin isn't the only one desperate for an external enemy. Biden's performance has been atrocious. His ratings are in the toilet. He needs us to focus on a perceived external enemy as well, or else our media wouldn't be hyper focused on Ukraine.

My two cents: The problem with the West and Russias's relations is that the West naively thinks that diplomacy is going to sway Russia in any way. But, hey, as long as Russia is not within the borders of bigger countries (except for Poland, but who cares about Poland, right?), then all is good. The West may for the time being impose sanctions on Russia, but since a lot of part of Europe is dependent on Gazprom gas, who really thinks that these sanctions are long-term? Remember Russia-Georgia War? How about Russia-Chechnya? Or the time when Russia took one part of Ukraine? And then some other parts? Short from transporting (buying) anti-aircraft/anti-missile weaponry in case of black day scenario where Russia might have a brain-fart and try taking chunks of its closest NATO countries, there's nothing really to do about Russia.

The only way world powers will seriously address the situation is if Putin attempts to invade a country which matters. Not saying the Ukraine doesn't matter but it isn't like a Germany, UK, France, etc.., which would really cause a proper response. History repeats itself and like ninety years ago, many won't give much of a damn until it is THEM who is being attacked or invaded.

AWWWW OF COURSE ! It was those evil republicans that started this.... lmao. Do you even hear yourself now? There was no division in the US to help the Ukraine, nobody in America gave a shit.

Putin wouldn't have invaded the Ukraine under Trump. At the very least it would have made Trump look weak and he was to much of an egomaniac to let that happen. Biden however is a bumbling weak moron and Putin has no problem dog walking him. He saw how terrible he handeled the Afghan withdrawal situation and he know's we are weak.

@SUD123456: Dropping keystone signaled our desire to not be energy independent.

You literally have to prove this is Biden's fault or it objectively is by definition gas lighting. You're only saying that because he's a Democrat and no other reason. Literally.

And that's a crazy bar to pass, because everyone knows it isn't his fault and really has nothing to do with him. It's fiction. No proof will be given.

You have several conservatives saying he didn't do enough and the other half saying he shouldn't do anything - even you guys can't get your stories straight.

His explanation is better than yours for it being Biden's fault. Just saying. While both are reaches IMO, at least his is a bit more valid.

Is Putin dying? He looks like shit.