Pete Buttigieg surges to 1st place in Iowa, new poll shows.

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Master_Live

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#1  Edited By Master_Live
Member since 2004 • 19876 Posts

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/16/politics/iowa-poll-cnn-pete-buttigieg/index.html

An excerpt:

There is a new Democratic front-runner in Iowa, and his name is Pete Buttigieg.

The mayor of South Bend, Indiana, holds a clear lead in the first-in-the-nation caucus state, climbing to 25% in a new CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers. That marks a 16-point increase in support for Buttigieg since the September CNN/DMR poll. This survey comes on the heels of other recent polls that have shown Buttigieg joining the top tier of the Democratic primary race in Iowa.

Behind Buttigieg, there is a close three-way battle for second with Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 16%, and former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders each at 15%. Since September, Warren dropped six percentage points and Biden slipped five points, while Sanders gained four points.

Surveying the rest of the field, no other candidate gets double-digit support. Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar lands at 6%, while five candidates register 3% -- Sens. Cory Booker of New Jersey and Kamala Harris of California, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, investor Tom Steyer and businessman Andrew Yang. Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who has yet to officially announce a 2020 bid, gets 2%. The rest of the field receives 1% or less.

Buttigieg's significant rise comes in the wake of a heavy investment of time and money in Iowa. Over the last few months he has built one of the largest on-the-ground operations in the state, supplemented by a robust advertising campaign and strong public appearances, including a speech at the Democratic Party's biggest event of the year earlier this month in Des Moines.

His elevated standing in Iowa is grounded in steady support across different demographic groups. He does roughly as well with self-identified Democrats as he does with independents. He also performs about the same with previous caucusgoers as first-timers. And his support is nearly even in cities, suburbs, towns and rural areas.

So are you ready for Mayor Pete? His support isn't broad among all the constituents of the party but he is picking up steam. Will he just win Iowa and then lose on the more diverse states?

So people, are you ready for the public option and to pack the Court? Maybe Warren should drop out and endorse Pete since he beat her to spot on the public option. Share your thoughts.

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mrbojangles25

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#2 mrbojangles25
Member since 2005 • 45029 Posts

Yeah Pete!

@Master_Live said:

...

...

...

So people, are you ready for the public option and to pack the Court? Maybe Warren should drop out and endorse Pete since he beat her to spot on the public option. Share your thoughts.

I don't know if Pete actually stands a chance, though. He'd be great as VP though, a good young option, and he could be groomed to run as president at a later date.

Warren-Buttigieg 2020

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plageus900

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#3 plageus900  Online
Member since 2013 • 2806 Posts

In b4 the Republican butt jokes.

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texasgoldrush

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#4 texasgoldrush
Member since 2003 • 12995 Posts

We need to really read the bottom numbers here and also be aware of this fact.

The button numbers at the very end of this poll actually show that Buttigieg may not be as strong during the caucus as the top line numbers show. The poll showed that Sander's supporters are the most likely, overwhelmingly, to stick with their choice. The poll also shows that Warren supporters are more likely to even caucus, than the rest of the field, by a 12 point margin.

Next, you cannot accurately poll a caucus due to how they are run. Iowa polls are not really reliable towards the final result.

Warren still is favored in Iowa due to her ground game in the state being the strongest.

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watercrack445

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#5  Edited By watercrack445
Member since 2017 • 2104 Posts

I think Pete rise has something to do with Amy Klobuchar. She made an excuse for her poor polling and said if Pete was a woman he wouldn't be high in the polls. So, I think Amy played, at least, a part of the role in Pete's rise.

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joebones5000

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#6 joebones5000
Member since 2016 • 2908 Posts

Unless he dies of some one she malady, Biden is your next president. Everyone knows this. There was a time last election when goofy Gingrich was at the top of the polls. These are meaningless polls.

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#7  Edited By KungfuKitten
Member since 2006 • 26937 Posts

All I'm learning so far from the 2020 USA elections is that (aside from a lot of dirty games being played and the media going cuckoo) the polls seem all over the place.

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Nuck81

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#8 Nuck81
Member since 2005 • 7910 Posts

He's actually a moderate

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LJS9502_basic

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#9  Edited By LJS9502_basic  Online
Member since 2003 • 167977 Posts

Too early to say that means much...….

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sonicare

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#10 sonicare
Member since 2004 • 57096 Posts

I prefer him to Warren or senile Sanders. It's a shame Deval Patrick got in so late, because I think he would make a fairly good president.

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watercrack445

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#11 watercrack445
Member since 2017 • 2104 Posts

@sonicare said:

I prefer him to Warren or senile Sanders. It's a shame Deval Patrick got in so late, because I think he would make a fairly good president.

Most people don't know who Deval Patrick is. I didn't even knew he existed until he announced his bid for president.

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texasgoldrush

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#12 texasgoldrush
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@joebones5000 said:

Unless he dies of some one she malady, Biden is your next president. Everyone knows this. There was a time last election when goofy Gingrich was at the top of the polls. These are meaningless polls.

Biden has the traits of every losing candidate in modern history rolled up into one.

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#13 Chutebox
Member since 2007 • 44967 Posts

Googling Deval Patrick....

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sonicare

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#14  Edited By sonicare
Member since 2004 • 57096 Posts

@Chutebox said:

Googling Deval Patrick....

He basically wrote half of Obama's speeches.

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#15 GoldenElementXL
Member since 2016 • 3613 Posts

It scares me that there isn’t a clear and strong candidate to take on Trump. This is the weakest field the left has put out that I can remember. 2020 is the worst time for this kind of showing. I’m not sure anyone can handle 4 more years of Trump. Republicans included. Im not sure how much more morally bankrupt conservatives can get

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sonicare

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#16 sonicare
Member since 2004 • 57096 Posts

@goldenelementxl said:

It scares me that there isn’t a clear and strong candidate to take on Trump. This is the weakest field the left has put out that I can remember. 2020 is the worst time for this kind of showing. I’m not sure anyone can handle 4 more years of Trump. Republicans included. Im not sure how much more morally bankrupt conservatives can get

well, John Kerry was pretty weak. He lost to Bush when Bush was massively unpopular. Almost like you had to work to lose that election. But you're correct that this current field really doesn't have that sparkling star. I can't say i'm excited by anyone in the current field. Trump needs to be beaten, but I hope it's by a moderate democrat with some sense. Not some wackjob like sanders who is too senile and crazy to run a country anybody than an orangutan.

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#17 Willy105
Member since 2005 • 24927 Posts
@goldenelementxl said:

It scares me that there isn’t a clear and strong candidate to take on Trump. This is the weakest field the left has put out that I can remember. 2020 is the worst time for this kind of showing. I’m not sure anyone can handle 4 more years of Trump. Republicans included. Im not sure how much more morally bankrupt conservatives can get

None of them can dominate the media as well as Trump can, because only Trump can survive saying the most horrific things on air and still have his base protect him and any politicians that are loyal to him. The media loves people saying horrible stuff on air, and the Democratic candidates will obviously never do that, because the independents and the base of the democrats don't tolerate trash like that.

The GOP found literally the perfect weapon.

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#18  Edited By LeicaM6
Member since 2019 • 309 Posts

Mayor Pete seems to be doing well because there is now a massive vacuum for someone who is moderate and perceived to be able to beat Trump. I do not see Mayor Pete being able to beat Trump.

Biden was supposedly this main candidate but his performances in the debates have been disgraceful, Trump would walk all over him, and his constant stream of bad news has harmed him too. Next, it was supposed to be Kamala Harris but she got destroyed by Tulsi Gabbard of all people, and still hasn't recovered. Now it's Mayor Pete who is a bog standard moderate Democrat yet his polling in terms of black and minority voters is at the bottom of the Democratic field.

The fact of the matter is that the Democratic field is very thin in terms of quality candidates. It's a shame that someone like Sherrod Brown decided not to run because he would have been easily at the top - most liberal senator, white, male, working class appeal, from a swing state (Ohio), etc.

Having said that, I think there's an opening now for someone like Michael Bloomberg to come in and take the nomination. He is boring as hell but possesses that moderate appeal and has experience as mayor of NYC and is loaded with cash. Bloomberg is already spending obscene amounts on advertisements and is targeting older, white Democratic voters, the ones who actually make it out to primaries and caucuses. I could see him absolutely winning the nomination. He is everything Biden is and more, without any of the baggage and gaffes.

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#19  Edited By Sancho_Panzer  Online
Member since 2015 • 985 Posts

@leicam6: Bloomberg is a potential front-runner now? I just can't keep up. :(

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#20 Master_Live
Member since 2004 • 19876 Posts

I just would like to a see a truly Contested Convention once in my lifetime. It would be incredible.

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sonicare

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#21  Edited By sonicare
Member since 2004 • 57096 Posts

@leicam6 said:

Mayor Pete seems to be doing well because there is now a massive vacuum for someone who is moderate and perceived to be able to beat Trump. I do not see Mayor Pete being able to beat Trump.

Biden was supposedly this main candidate but his performances in the debates have been disgraceful, Trump would walk all over him, and his constant stream of bad news has harmed him too. Next, it was supposed to be Kamala Harris but she got destroyed by Tulsi Gabbard of all people, and still hasn't recovered. Now it's Mayor Pete who is a bog standard moderate Democrat yet his polling in terms of black and minority voters is at the bottom of the Democratic field.

The fact of the matter is that the Democratic field is very thin in terms of quality candidates. It's a shame that someone like Sherrod Brown decided not to run because he would have been easily at the top - most liberal senator, white, male, working class appeal, from a swing state (Ohio), etc.

Having said that, I think there's an opening now for someone like Michael Bloomberg to come in and take the nomination. He is boring as hell but possesses that moderate appeal and has experience as mayor of NYC and is loaded with cash. Bloomberg is already spending obscene amounts on advertisements and is targeting older, white Democratic voters, the ones who actually make it out to primaries and caucuses. I could see him absolutely winning the nomination. He is everything Biden is and more, without any of the baggage and gaffes.

Deval Patrick just entered the race as well. He's a good candidate, but I think he waited too long and doesn't have the name recognition that he needs. Most people should know him as the architect of most of Obama's speeches and policies. Plus he's also not a fossil like Biden, Sanders, and Warren.

Mayor Pete has some appeal, but he's really lacking in experience. Doesn't necessarily mean he'd be a bad president, just less predictable.

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#22 LJS9502_basic  Online
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@sonicare said:

Deval Patrick just entered the race as well. He's a good candidate, but I think he waited too long and doesn't have the name recognition that he needs. Most people should know him as the architect of most of Obama's speeches and policies. Plus he's also not a fossil like Biden, Sanders, and Warren.

Mayor Pete has some appeal, but he's really lacking in experience. Doesn't necessarily mean he'd be a bad president, just less predictable.

Not advocating particularly for him but I will say Obama lacked experience.

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sonicare

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#23 sonicare
Member since 2004 • 57096 Posts

@LJS9502_basic said:
@sonicare said:

Deval Patrick just entered the race as well. He's a good candidate, but I think he waited too long and doesn't have the name recognition that he needs. Most people should know him as the architect of most of Obama's speeches and policies. Plus he's also not a fossil like Biden, Sanders, and Warren.

Mayor Pete has some appeal, but he's really lacking in experience. Doesn't necessarily mean he'd be a bad president, just less predictable.

Not advocating particularly for him but I will say Obama lacked experience.

Definitely. I think he made some gaffs, but he ended up doing a decent job as president.