Biden's lead opens by 14 points after first debate

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519514-biden-opens-14-point-national-lead-over-trump-after-debate

It appears that people did not like trumps debate technique.

It is still an open question if contracting covid will get trump some pity votes or if his supporters will think he is weak.

American politics are crazy right now.

According to an NBC poll. Good luck with that.

NBC/WSJ poll. Those are actually good.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Also +10 from Reuters https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/biden-leads-by-10-points-as-majority-of-americans-say-trump-could-have-avoided-coronavirus-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN26P0DB

Also polling on the actual debate directly, Biden just about won them all.

Doesn't mean he will win no matter what, just that Trump has to gain ground. Things can change. But they have to change a lot in Trump's favor.

According to RCP there's been three polls covering the exact same time period, 9/30-10/1, one is only a three point lead for Biden, and the other is a 7 point lead for Biden. The other two are in Biden's normal range which makes me think the 14 point poll from NBC is an outlier.

I doubt that figure is sticky.

How anyone can still support trump is mindboggling to me........

Gonna link a "fake news source", but the results on it are nonetheless very interesting,

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/03/upshot/polls-election-florida-pennsylvania.html

Trump's behaviour repulsed people in key swing states. Oops.

You wacky lefties and your polls lol.

Prepared to be schooled...again!

Poor canada.

Remember when NBC was actually caught working along side the Clinton campaign, discussing ways to skew the polls by over-representing certain groups they felt were most likely to lean in Clinton's favor in order to generate a result that didn't reflect the reality of the situation, but to create the outcome they wanted? They still think NBC does a legitimate poll with clear evidence to the contrary, but more than that none of them have been able to think critically enough to ask themselves why they've been skewing polls in their favor.

And yeah, when they lose again they'll act all confused and dumbfounded wondering how it's possible because the polls told them something to the contrary. Eventually, you'd think they'd learn.

Not really, America has a huge racism problem.

@tenaka2: I can find more videos of Biden being racist than Trump.

So could you if not for those blinders you wear.

Hey now, poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids. And if you don't believe that, you ain't black.

My wife's grandparents voted democratic for the first time in their life (They are 90+).

@HoolaHoopMan: Here's hoping.

But I was told the "Orangutan throwing shit at walls" debate technic made Trump look like a winner. I feel wronged!

I am hoping that if Biden wins,

Scientific Polls are the closest we have to something concrete in sociology.

But I guess some of us prefer using data over feelings (and YouTube videos).

Also, it would be to your benefit to use WSJ more often. Unlike political youtube pundits. WSJ actually has credibility.

OK, show some vids of Biden supporting nazis...

Good people on both sides :D

That's depressing.........

Hey don't judge me for judging people before I learn anything about them. :P

I think at this point it's just a super-small minority that support Trump. The rest are simply voting Republican like they always have and always will. They'd vote for the devil if he ran as GOP, and that's the truth.

But I agree, I just don't understand how anyone can support someone that is so utterly antihuman.

I wouldn't say it's huge relative to our other problems, and most of it is fabricated and exaggerated, but yes, it is one of our many many problems.

There are larger issues we need to address, however.

I think equality is the main problem. if you don't have equality every thing else is tarnished. What issues do you think are more important and are also not linked to race inequality?

Yeah, this race is over imo. Biden will win big.

Why do Trump supporters only use polls when it benefits then but call it fake news when it doesn’t?

Can you link this?

538 has NBC/WSJ pollster as A-, and generally accurate within margin of error for national polls like this one. Either way most polls have Biden ahead, Trump's internal polling probably does as well. They would be wise to use this information and put some work in.

P.S. Biden won the first debate. This is seen in both GE polls after the debate and direct polls asking about the debate. National polls are accurate.

I wish I could feel the same but the pessimistic side of me says never count Trump and his cronies out. They will cheat and lie to win and break the law I'm not holding my breath it's 2020 anything is possible.

I think there's a huge discrepancy between how inaccurate the polls actually were in 2016 and people's perceptions of how inaccurate they were. Except for Wisconsin, I believe the state level polls were within the standard margin of error. The national polls also were quite close to the popular vote. I do however view the media creating an air of inevitability around Clinton's victory in editorials as a sort of malpractice. Clearly the data did not support what they were saying and writing.

Still, Trump barely edged out Clinton in PA, MI and WI. The likelihood of him doing that again is really low. I don't see a path to 270 for him without one of those states.

Polls are used by a way to suppress voters, by giving the impression that it's hopeless for one candidate in hopes voters for that candidate will stay home on election day. And Trump hasn't lost many if any followers since 2016. They're not buying the crap pushed by the media, but he has gained a lot of voters in many areas. The governors in MI, PA, and WI have fucked themselves over the last few months. Especially with Whitless' response to Corona getting a lot of seniors killed, and Everetts response in Kenosha that most Wisconsin residents are blaming him for.

That's uh.......an interesting take.

Biden needs what? Like 60% of the popular vote to maybe have a chance?

The problem is inequality, I just don't think it is strictly along race lines (though, again, it is to some degree).

Wealth inequality is a larger issue to me. Too much wealth is in the hands of too few people. Now I am not saying we need to "redistribute" like a communist country, but it's not ethical/moral/whatever to have people starving to death in California because they can't afford food, or freezing to death in Chicago because they can't afford shelter, while people like Jeff Bezos have literally doubled their wealth in the worst year in American history since like forever.

Are any middle-class or wealthy black people being shot? No. These people all come from low-income backgrounds. They live in bad (read: "poor") neighborhoods where cops are more likely to be on guard. I think people are over-emphasizing the race issue because it's a lot easier to believe in a human flaw than it is to admit that the bastardized capitalism the US has devolved to is flawed and broken and failing us as a society.

Again, I'm no communist, nor am I an unbridled socialist. I believe in capitalism....I just don't think this model of capitalism is doing essentially anyone any favors.

A lot of people felt that way in 2016 as well. "How could Trump win?".

I wasn't exactly 100% sure but to say I was shocked that Trump won is an understatement.

I won't be shocked this time. And yeah, we've been circling the drain for four years now, anything really is possible.

And I lied about being shocked: I am still shocked at the lows I witness my peers going to in this country.

He needs +7 over Trump to have a good win chance at the EC. Rough estimate, not foolproof mind you.

Kinda fucked up that Dems need so much more of the PV to win, IMO.

PA only has the trumpers upset. Most people are okay with the governor. Also more Biden support dude.

@LJS9502_basic: Yeah we feel the same way about Biden.

So what? Trump will take it.

Keep thinking that. Support for Trump hasn't waned, it's grown, and Biden won't have the "first female president if elected" driving him either. To most voters, he's just as much of a career and establishment politician as Hillary was, only an old white male. He refuses to support the things the Bernie bros need him to as well. This year a lot of the votes going against Trump won't be going for Biden, but for a third party candidate. A vote for Biden is a vote for China.

More far right talking points..............

@LJS9502_basic: Same everywhere, only the Trump supporters are mad. That’s why the right is pushing America is burning lie.

GOP is the affirmative action vote.

can't win on a level field so the system is stacked in their favor.

@Sushiglutton: they sed the same thing about Hillary that she would win by a landslide. LMFAO

@Addict187: Who’s they? And I never saw that.

@Addict187:

Hilary had huge leads while polling under 50 percent. Biden has huge leads while polling over 50%. Biden is on track to win by at least 8 points in November.

@zaryia

No. Biden can win by 3 points and get over 270 in the EC. Biden has a more efficient coalition than hilary did.Biden is a polling error away from getting over 400 EVs right now. I have him getting just under 370 EVs right now.

Also it's very unlikely biden wins by 14 points but I do think there is a good chance he wins by around 9 points(53.5-44.5) in november which will be the biggest PV win for a dem presidential candidate in 56 years.

@super600: Wanna bet on that? I hate Trump, but I say he wins.

I think Trump harping about antifa and the far left and saying those are Biden supporters is unwise.

Antifa and the far left don't even like Biden. Biden is a boomer that appeals to boomers and gen x voters, and moderates alike. Also the anti-trump voters.

@Gaming-Planet: I’m Gen X and back Sanders.

@thegreatchomp:

My feeling for months has been that trump gets destroyed by a historic margin by biden. Barely any polls have shown trump getting over 45 percent of the vote in months.. It's impossible for trump to win if he continues to poll under 45 percent and if he can't crack 45 percent of the vote in November he might get well under 200 electoral votes depending on how efficient biden's vote is. It is very possible trump gets blown out so badly that the EC map ends up close to 1988

@super600: Ok. I’ll cash app you 5 bucks if you are right.

This feels very different to me. Biden has a bigger lead. Enough people have just had enough. It’s hard for Trump to get the same energy this time.

Pretty sure that poll is an outlier.

Also, history repeats. I note that the exact same NBC/WSJ poll in mid-Oct 2016 was also an outlier.

Clinton 11point lead over Trump Oct 2016 NBC/WSJ

While I despise Trump and hope he loses, I would not put my faith in this poll.

Also, I like to post facts. We are entitled to our opinions, but not the facts. In this case, the facts should cause us to pause because the poll was an outlier in 2016 and it is again now.