2020 Election Day Thread: Biden 306 - Trump 232 (CNN). Joseph R. Biden Jr. Wins the Presidency of the United States.

Yep even though NC/GA might still surprise.

Biden's going to lose Wisconsin almost definitely. With Dane (Madison) and Milwaukee counties 98 and 99% reported, the only thing left are red counties and Trump is up 5 points. You can safely call Wisconsin for Trump. Trump has won north Carolina as well as the only county in that state that isn't 100% reported is McDowell county, which is a small red county where if every citizen in that county voted Biden, he'd still lose.

The trump campaign is worried about holding georgia now

not sure where milwaukee is.

cnn/nyt have it at 36% reporting, fox has it at 99% both have count at 128/84
in 2019 the county had 400K+ votes

The betting markets may have actually been smart here, and were better indicators than the polls.

They had Biden has a much smaller favorite (which still seems accurate) than sites like 538.

@comp_atkins: Fox has Wisconsin at 82%, what are you smoking?

My map was close to being accurate. Eotens was waaaaayyyyyy off. He gave Trump Minnesota, that happened.

I ended up being way off, but I came close to the final margin in MN. The presidency rests on the midwest and atlanta at this point.

There seems to me that there is an average polling error of 3 points against Trump, which Biden very well could survive.

Biden seems to also be doing 3 points better than Clinton on average.

In the roughly 1 million votes cast in Wayne and Oakland counties in Michigan both mostly reporting in, Trump is only down 100,000 votes between the two. There won't be enough of a favor for Biden in these major counties to off-set the rest of the state. Trump will take Michigan.

NC is over. Trump has it.

....really? Are we really trying to repeat 2016? Once again, I'm shocked its so damn close....

@tocool340:

It's likely that biden wins the remaining outstanding states. So technically it's a reverse of 2016 but in favour of biden.

The Democrats Texas dream dies to live another day.

we were talking about milwaukee county specifically.

Biden lacked the Latino appeal to win the state, the border counties had depressed turnout.

It looks like Trump will win.

Still, with the counts so close, I don't think Biden should concede until everything has been counted.

@comp_atkins said:

@thegreatchomp said:

@comp_atkins: Fox has Wisconsin at 82%, what are you smoking?

we were talking about milwaukee county specifically.

Looks like an error. Milwaukee is bigger.

@comp_atkins said:

@thegreatchomp said:

@comp_atkins: Fox has Wisconsin at 82%, what are you smoking?

we were talking about milwaukee county specifically.

In Wisconsin, most your blue votes will come from Milwaukee county, and Dane county where Madison, WI is which is basically the "Portland" of Wisconsin. And with both those counties nearly 100% reported and Trump still with as large of a lead as he has, he takes Wisconsin.

@eoten said:

@comp_atkins said:

@thegreatchomp said:

@comp_atkins: Fox has Wisconsin at 82%, what are you smoking?

we were talking about milwaukee county specifically.

In Wisconsin, most your blue votes will come from Milwaukee county, and Dane county where Madison, WI is which is basically the "Portland" of Wisconsin. And with both those counties nearly 100% reported and Trump still with as large of a lead as he has, he takes Wisconsin.

But the thing is wrong. Milwaukee country is much bigger, and they have said that there is a race turning amount of vote left to be counted.

@eoten said:

@comp_atkins said:

@thegreatchomp said:

@comp_atkins: Fox has Wisconsin at 82%, what are you smoking?

we were talking about milwaukee county specifically.

In Wisconsin, most your blue votes will come from Milwaukee county, and Dane county where Madison, WI is which is basically the "Portland" of Wisconsin. And with both those counties nearly 100% reported and Trump still with as large of a lead as he has, he takes Wisconsin.

i agree. the point is milwaukee county is NOT at 99%. that appears to be an error.

other sites have it ~36%, which seems more reasonable given the 2016 results and population of the county

Wolf Blitzer losing his voice. Pace yourself Wolf.

Hoping for a smooth transition whoever comes out with the victory, which we likely won't know until later this week. Especially if Pennsylvania and the courts battle it out.

As predicted, this would be a close race.

We wont see who the winner is though until much later.

Due to late votes arriving.

Biden is gaining in Georgia, he may win the state. Its only really Atlanta and some other blue areas to count.

so if PA has stopped counting mail-ins for the night. do the ballots remain under armed guard all night?

@comp_atkins: They shred them overnight.

The senate guru for the Cook Political Report states:

Well, Trump's on stage.

I guess he must be worried. Maybe he thinks the postal votes tomorrow will tank him?

*edit* Okay, he just called the election a fraud, and accused the Democrats of taking votes to court.

Then he said he was going to ask the Supreme Court to make him president.

jesus christ he's a fucking lunatic.

A wonderful speech.

That isn't what he said at all. It's states that he has huge leads in and they're refusing to continue counting the ballots. Pennsylvania for example where Trump is up almost 700,000 votes are refusing to keep counting. And states where it's a mathematical impossibility for Biden to win are refusing to award the victory to Trump.

This is after polling stations in Philadelphia were caught refusing to let official poll watchers in to do their jobs.

Absolute madlad 🇺🇸

Lets see the Supreme Court 9-0 him which accomplishes two things, negating this ridiculous "stop counting the votes" thing that he wants and showing the American public that the SCOTUS is an independent branch of government that won't kowtow and do his bidding.

Another 4 years of insanity? It's almost certain by now right?

@eoten: without being an expert isn’t a lot of states doing that( especially Pennsylvania) missing all the mail in ballards said to favor Biden?

No, most states that used mail-in ballots were mailed in to the local county electors office where the voter is registered, and those were counted by machine usually after the polls closed, but some states counted them earlier. So mail in ballots are already counted for, that is why most states have already been called. Pennsylvania has simply refused to keep counting after Trump reached a 700,000 vote lead.

Now if new ballots are suddenly "found" and Trump loses a MASSIVE 700,000 vote lead, it's going to be suspect as ****.

Electors in Fulton county, Georgia are refusing to do the same. And Trump mathematically cannot lose in NC, but the state is refusing to declare a victory being up by 1.5 points.

@eoten: Trump declared victory in a bunch of states he hasn't won, accused the Democrats of trying to defraud the election, accused them of taking it to court ("the democrats will either win or take it to court"), and then said he would be asking the Supreme Court to stop counting the votes.

If Trump was confident in his victory, he'd let the votes be counted. He's worried.

@eoten: on what grounds do they do that? Also do you have any links on that all the mail ballots are already accounted for? That goes directly against everything the media here in Denmark reports..

@djoffer123: We're hearing the same thing in Australia.

Unless I misheard them, it sounds like heaps of postal votes haven't been counted in pro-Biden areas of Pennsylvania and Georgia?

They're refusing to count them. These ballots are counted by machine, there's nothing stopping them from finishing the count, but once Trump got about 700,000 up, they stopped.

Sounds like Arizona is having major problems. Claims that people are being forced to use markers instead of pens to fill out the ballots.

It's...what, 3am in the US? They can finish counting them tomorrow. It normally takes them days to count them all.

Trump wanted a landslide win on 3 November. It didn't happen. Now we'll have to wait for the outcome to be counted (unless Trump convinces the Supreme Court to invalidate the remaining votes).

I am surprised how well Trump has done.

This really shows what America is really like...well about half of it.

@eoten: but why would they do that?

Well, either they were too dumb to think hmm, maybe we should hire people to work in shifts to get the job done, or they're buying time. There is absolutely no good excuse for a state that uses automated machines to take what they claim may be days to count everything.