COVID19 New York vs Hong Kong

I am not trying to say one is better than the other. But I am curious why two major cities are having such large differences in terms of COVID19 infections and death rate.

Hong Kong has not shut down at all, there are guidelines when dining out nor did it close its borders entirely. But one major difference is the widespread usage of facemasks.

What are your thoughts?

Hong Kong Population 7.45 million / New York 8.40 million

COVID19 Cases Hong Kong 1,038 / New York 277,445

COVID19 Deaths Hong Kong 4 / New York 21,219

Cultural differences. Some leadership differences as well.

Well, I haven't really studied Hong Kong's response in detail, but I have studied South Korea's, which has largely controlled the virus without imposing any strict lockdowns. I did, however, vaguely heard that Hong Kong has taken at least some of the same measures that South Korea did. I would therefore attribute Hong Kong's situation to that.

As for what I learned from South Korea, I would personally rate each country's epidemic response based on six measures:

1. Preparation: these outbreaks are not something you should be scrambling to react to; you should already have a plan in mind and ready to go months or years in advance.
2. Speed and Decisiveness of Response: especially at the 100th confirmed case milestone. I'm no epidemiologist, so I only have rudimentary understanding of the statistics, but epidemiologists I read up on have said that the hours and days immediately after confirming your 100th case is crucial. You have to be fast and you have to be decisive.
3. Testing.
4. Contact Tracing.
5. Isolation: the primary goal should be to keep the virus from reaching the most vulnerable population; the elderly and people with compromised immune systems or pre-existing conditions.
6. Public Communication: clarity and consistency of public information is critical to ensure public compliance with mitigation measures. If your messaging is unclear or inconsistent, it could cause confusion and lead to the measures to fail.

South Korea got all six right and reaped the rewards, so Hong Kong probably have most if not all of these right as well.

Should be noted that both South Korea and Hong Kong have hard, painful past experiences to draw lessons from; Hong Kong is still haunted by the 2003 SARS outbreak, while South Korea has effectively been preparing for this since they fumbled the 2015 MERS outbreak. Humans in general seem to be only capable of learning things the hard way.

You're certainly right about SK. They have done a good job.

The situation in HK is largely the same, testing, contact tracing, isolation and public communication. The city did become a little lax but the situation is under control now.

When I returned from China (exactly a month today), I was in quarantine for two weeks at home in HK. I had to provide my location to the HK government three times per day and they randomly called me on Wechat for a video call to ensure I was at home (once at 6:45 AM). I also had to take my temperature three times a day. The government was quite nice, they provided a parcel of food and they threw out my rubbish three times a week.

However, SK is a different comparison, I don't have the city breakdowns. It would be interesting to see the stats for Seoul.

I am just amazed and saddened to see how two huge cities with quite a few similarities have such different outcomes from COVID19 (2 infections today) if anything HK should have been much worse than New York given the higher population density, proximity to China and the two main border points, Zhuhai and Shenzhen remained open.

Anyhow, thanks for your insight into SK and stay safe.

Hong Kong began testing early, didn't they?

So far just under 2% of HK has been tested. But yes they did begin to test very early on.

There is a lot of contact tracing going on over here, a few of my friends were called by authorities, but strangely some were tested while some were told to quarantine themselves for 14 days. Not sure the exact methodology.

Prior to my return to HK, I heard on the news that everyone who enters HK needed to wear a tracking wristband (because many broke quarantine), but for some reason, I was not given one. It might only apply to those entering from abroad excluding the Mainland.

In my slightly-scientific-but-certainly-not-proven-opinion, it was facemasks that made the difference because it's still mega jam-packed outside.

In fact, I'm going to go home now.

I think it was more than just facemasks. People followed the advice if they were told to isolate? Cultural differences when it comes to hygiene. Government may have some experience as well. Perhaps a media that can be trusted somewhat more than Fox News...

Note; I am not trying to say that if everyone wore face masks that it wouldn't make a difference. Just that it is more than simply the facemasks.

@horgen: Yes, you're right a combination. Most people do listen to the government when it came to COVID19, but for other issues not so much.

But there were a lot of people returning to HK that broke quarantine, at some point on the news they said they caught 400 plus people per day for several days breaking quarantine. This brought the second wave to HK. I think today is the third day of zero new cases reported.

But I have a feeling new cases and a third wave will be inevitable.

All you need is one imported case and you got that.

Our (the US) government doesn't have their act together like that, and even if they did, I don't think people would respond well to it because that is more or less what we call "house arrest".

But at the same time desperate times call for desperate measures.

Plus we keep flip-flopping between responsibilities; is it the states, or the feds? Some states have done well; California for example is doing fairly well to the point they have surplus supplies and are sending them to other states.

Was your situation strictly because you were coming from China? Or is it a common occurrence?

Yeah, Trump messed up. However, the US will definitely be very prepared for the next pandemic and let's face it, it's going to happen again and again.

I never thought of it as house arrest, but you're right it is. It was not so bad, I had gotten used to it when I was in China.

I returned on the 26 March, by that time HK was beginning to see its second wave but it had its quarantine policy for everyone entering into the city much earlier. I think I did not have to wear one of the tracking wrist bands because the number of infections was dying down in the Mainland. (Yes, I basically went from a safer place to a more dangerous place, but it's under control now).

Everyone is very sensitive to this in HK because the city is very densely populated so infections spread very quickly.

Anyhow stay safe