Depends how they market it. If they market it to the existing customers make it more orientated for their current install base it might find a good niche group within to keep it afloat.
If they try and market it towards families, trying to take a chunk out of nintendos market it will definately fail. Not enough games and the PS3 is just too expensive when compared to the Wii. It will also alienate the core users of the PS3 who will shun it if all they get is mini games from it.
Chances of success are slim i'd say even if i'm keen to own one.
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