The blacksmith unlocks after you finish Norris' 4th homestead mission in the mine protected by English soldiers. After his mission is done, check the frontier map, you will see a new homestead mission. This is Big Dave (blacksmith). It doesn't matter where or when, its all about doing all the homestead missions. By sequence 7, you should have The woodworkers, farmers,doctor, huntress, innkeepers and the miner. All of their homestead mission should be done, cause the next inhabitant is unlocked by completing homestead missions. If you are in sequence 9 and still no blacksmith, go and do some homestead missions. If you are in the epilogue you most likely have missed your opportunity to collect all the inhabitants.
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