The Pach Man Is At It Again, Michael Pachter Makes Bold NX Prediction

Video games industry analyst Michael Pachter has been doing quite a bit of talking about what he thinks the Nintendo NX should do in order to make sure it has a brighter future than the Nintendo Wii U has had. It also seems as though Pachter believes the future might actually be bright, as the analyst has recently said that the new console could actually hit the 30 million install base mark.

He added that the console has a bit of a tough road to hoe, especially considering that the PS4 and the Xbox One have such a jump on the next generation console. Talking on Siftd‘s newest Pachter Factor episode, he laid out his feelings about the chance for success for the Nintendo NX. He also said that even if there is a misstep when it comes to Nintendo just moving to be a third party publisher, he doesn’t see that move in the cards.

“I would say modest potential that it bombs. I would give them a 60 percent chance of success, I think they are smart people, I think they have learned a lot from what they did wrong with the Wii U. Are they going to get the Wii magic back? Probably not. But if they go back to a conventional-like console, their only problem they have now is they are very late in the cycle so they’re not going to sell that many. Could they sell 30 million? Sure. They could sell enough to make a difference and make a profit. They’re not getting out of the handheld business until the sales drop to zero – three or four million a year. And that is probably five, seven or eight years out. So no, they’re not going to get out of hardware.”

http://gamingbolt.com/nintendo-nx-may-reach-30-million-install-base

Those are some big numbers considering we know nothing about Nintendo's new console.

Have any of Pach's predictions actually come true?

How does he know they learned what they did wrong?

Seems reasonable, if they stop f*cking around and just make a powerful console that gets good games there's no reason they can't sell just as many as the Xbox or PS.

Three years after the competition, probably not. I could be wrong.

He's actually quite useful, just do the exact opposite and you're on to a sure fire winner

How do we know it's three years after the competition, and not three years before?

Mind Blown!

So basically he's saying that it might sell well or might sell poorly... wow, what a prediction!

Never trust Pachter. Trust no one but yourselves.

Pachter also indicated that the NX should be priced at $300. If said is the case, it will almost surely be "three years after the competition".

30mil console and between 32mil - 40mil for their handheld according to Pachter.

70 million units is good, all things considered, but not blowing my mind as an investor. Regardless, predictions are incredibly premature since there's virtually no basis to know whether NX will be a competent or good product.

Nintendo's problems go beyond the devices they make. Offering compelling services against the ilk of XBL(Gold) and PS+ is still something they have to prove and there is a chasm to cross in mending their relationship with 3rd parties, which should be by far priority number 1. Tackling that issue is multi-faceted, but it's inexcusable for Nintendo to be losing all sales of the biggest non-Nintendo franchises to their competitors.

No.

Gamecube says it can't.

Gamecube, while admittedly powerful and receiving good games, was also a firm 3rd place in terms of 3rd party (PS2 obviously won that, while Xbox had it's many PC ports to compensate, Gamecube just missed out) and online (Xbox Live obviously best, PS2 had some decent online also).

Basically, they need to offer something as good or better than the competition. Gamecube wasn't as good or better than the competition in games or online. NX needs to be to succeed.