I would argue the power differential and price will be MS's ace in the hole. Halo feels tired as a marketing tool. Even if the game itself is adequately refreshed by a soft reboot, I think its system seller power is drastically faded.
Of course, for many people the power and price angle doesn't matter - but for many it does. So it won't win over fans of Sony exclusives, or PC gamers for whom the benefits are moot, but it will win over people who prefer to game on consoles and primarily care about multiplats (which, realistically us the vast majority of games now). This isn't a "casual" gamer necessarily, just... people who like to consume lots of games and appreciate the value proposition associated.
Meanwhile I think Sony trying to defensively spin PS5 pricing as being the platform about value is a joke - I see no indication of that holding water over the XSX (at least until we truly know the prices). Rather, the PS5 "value" is squarely where it's always been: if you like the exclusives and console exclusives. It plays the multiplats, like an XSX, but also has those. Those are its bug guns - which likewise only matter to the people who appreciate them
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