@doubutsuteki: You're looking too much at sales and forgetting that the audiences were quite different. Obviously video games have become more popular over the course of the decades - you have to take that into account.
But what does it mean to say that a platform "dominated" an industry if the sales aren't there to support it? I agree that sales aren't everything, but they aren't nothing. Sales indicate how many people physically bought that console, and that's important.
I am taking into account that video games have become more popular over time, but where do you think that increase in popularity comes from? It doesn't materialise out of thin air; people need to have a reason to buy games, and it's not reasonable to assume that there will always be more and more gamers out there and that this will expand exponentially over time. In fact, the opposite has often been true (look at the video game crash of 1983, and look at the decline of video game hardware sales in Japan over a decade).
@doubutsuteki: But the NES dominated in it's day, had a life-span of over a decade and has remained to have a large following ever since it went out of production. That isn't the case for the Wii, because most of the audience went on to tablets and mobile phones - it's evident when you look at the tablet controller on the Wii U that Nintendo was going after that same audience again.
The Wii has also had a life-span of at least a decade (2006 - 2016). In fact, one important reason why Wii U is compatible with Wii games is because Wii games are still selling, even though Nintendo isn't actively publishing new titles anymore for that platform.
In terms of where the audience went after the Wii, I think you are right that smart devices have played a more competitive role in recent times than ever before. But I also think you'll find that a lot of consumers didn't actually go anywhere - they stayed on the Wii and didn't see the value in upgrading to Wii U. This would be especially true for non-gamers and possibly even lapsed gamers.
I do think it's sensible to assume that a lot of consumers who still have a Wii decided that they have enough gaming content available on their phone or tablet and thus, there's no reason to buy a new console. But it's very difficult to demonstrate that this piece of armchair analysis is correct (even though I think it has some validity, at least conceptually).
@doubutsuteki: And they failed. The SNES didn't fail, although it didn't have the same amount of success as it's predecessor. But it was pretty close, which means that most of the audience from the NES carried over to the SNES.
Honestly, it really depends how you define "failure". Some would argue that the Nintendo 64 or GameCube consoles failed, although I wouldn't argue this.
In my view, the ultimate definition comes down to whether or not the console performed as per Nintendo's expectations. In the Wii U's case, it clearly didn't. In terms of overall sales of hardware, it looks like Wii U will settle somewhere slightly above Dreamcast in terms of lifetime hardware sales, which isn't a great result.
However, I will reiterate a very fundamental point that is being missed continually here, but I'll do it in response to another part of your post below.
@doubutsuteki: The hardware landscape is different now, because of tablets and smartphones. Nintendo could succeed with the Wii only because tablets and smartphones had not become commonplace yet. It's what allowed them to come out with a gimmicky console that was weaker than the competition and meet with success. It was all a bubble, however.
I think this is the biggest part of your analysis that I take issue with, because it misunderstands why the Wii was successful. Of course timing played a role, but timing plays a role with every product as a matter of course.
Nintendo's success with the Wii fundamentally came from the fact that you only had to look at it to intuitively understand it. Simply watching someone use a Wii Remote for a matter of seconds instantly communicates the machine's purpose and value. This is incredibly powerful, especially in terms of enticing people who have not traditionally been gamers.
Of course, nobody can predict whether or not a certain idea will become wildly successful. Timing and luck are crucial to any product's success. But Nintendo didn't simply fluke it with Wii - they understood what they were doing, and they executed on the idea almost perfectly. Nintendo didn't compete directly with Sony and Microsoft; they simply bypassed them. Don't drive through the roadblock, drive around it, as it were. :P
In my view, one of the problems with the Wii U is that Nintendo didn't continue focusing on what made the Wii so successful. I can understand where they were coming from and what they were trying to do - they were trying to take gamers who they had introduced to console gaming with the Wii, and begin offering them more sophisticated experiences. But you're right that people didn't follow them.
It's too late now, but my view has always been that Nintendo would have been better to release a "Wii 2" or a "Super Wii" that is basically an HD Wii with a bigger hard drive, improved Wii Remote, and improved interface and online features. But that's easy for me to say in retrospect. :-)
Also, it's not that Wii existed in a bubble, it's that innovation is hard! It's almost impossible to anticipate what consumers will want from year to year. As soon as a company innovates, they increase the risk that consumers won't buy into their ideas.
Rather than viewing Wii as a bubble, it's more accurate to view Wii and Wii U as examples of the ebb-and-flow of product ideas and successes. In other words, not all new products will be a huge hit...even the most successful company won't always get it right all the time.
But that's the price of innovation. Nintendo themselves have said this, and I think it's a risk they have been prepared to take.
@doubutsuteki: I don't want Nintendo to make any new consoles. I want them to go third-party. Because they suck at making consoles.
That's fair enough; you're welcome to that opinion.
I'd just say that I don't think Nintendo suck at making consoles. Regardless of my personal view (and I have different views for different platforms, honestly), I'd say that Nintendo can clearly make a valuable contribution to console hardware.
If I could play Nintendo games on my PS4? Sure, that'd be awesome. But to be honest, I just don't think that is worth what I'd be giving up on the other side - Nintendo's innovation in hardware has been genuinely interesting to me, and has been compelling for the industry at large. I personally don't really want to give that up.
But either way, it's a bit of a moot point. Nintendo aren't going third-party in the foreseeable future, so the real question is about what the NX is and what strategy Nintendo will employ with it.
@GameboyTroy: DRM isn't Nintendo's style lol and DRM is frowned upon.
What do you mean? Nintendo has had DRM since the Wii.
One thing they've talked about being open to changing (on a slightly unrelated note) is region-locking.
By the way, sorry for the long post reply guys and gals. I wanted to be respectful and reply to those who had kindly replied to me, it just took me a little while. :-)
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