How likely is nuclear war?

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KOTORkicker

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#1 KOTORkicker
Member since 2007 • 4595 Posts

How likely is nuclear war, ever? Is it ever likely to happen or do you think that humans will always just stare one another out and back away from using nuclear weapons in tit-for-tat warfare? (I.e the Cuban missile crisis)

Thoughts?

[spoiler] This has been hugely influenced by the fact that I'm currently playing the Fallout games :P [/spoiler]

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xTheExploited

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#2 xTheExploited
Member since 2007 • 12094 Posts
I don't think its likely in the nearfuture, but I can see it being in issue in about 20 years, I'm assuming it will be about oil, and I'm assuming that in 20 years we won't have all that much left. But hey, I could be wrong.
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duxup

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#3 duxup
Member since 2002 • 43443 Posts
The more nations that have them the more likely. Eventually with enough time someone is going to screw up or some idiot will be in charge and make the dumb call.
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remmbermytitans

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#4 remmbermytitans
Member since 2005 • 7214 Posts
I'm going to say very low. If during the HEIGHT of the Cold War no one fired any weapons, I think we're all good for now. That doesn't mean though that should Iran and Saudi Arabia attain nuclear weapons, those two could attack each other fighting for regional supremacy. But I don't think you have to worry about Russia and the United States firing nuclear weapons.
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fastesttruck

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#5 fastesttruck
Member since 2005 • 25353 Posts
I don't think its gonna happen unless we get someone that has such things and wants to kill the human race
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MetalGear_Ninty

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#6 MetalGear_Ninty
Member since 2008 • 6337 Posts
The chances are pretty low. Humans in general abide by the natural insitinct of self-preservation.
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Bourbons3

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#7 Bourbons3
Member since 2003 • 24238 Posts
The idea that you'll be blown up yourself for launching a nuclear attack is a pretty good deterrent.
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CBR600-RR

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#8 CBR600-RR
Member since 2008 • 9695 Posts
According to my watch, 10minutes.
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deactivated-5b5d7639964d6

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#9 deactivated-5b5d7639964d6
Member since 2008 • 8225 Posts

Not so long as everyone knows this.

That scene always makes me want to play Defcon.

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LZ71

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#10 LZ71
Member since 2008 • 10524 Posts
Like what most others said, the chance for it would be low, unless a mad man somehow gets control of them. Right now though, with the fact that launching one would get you killed as well, I think we're safe.
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-Sun_Tzu-

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#11 -Sun_Tzu-
Member since 2007 • 17384 Posts
As long as our bodily fluids are safe, there is no danger of a nuclear war.
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duxup

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#12 duxup
Member since 2002 • 43443 Posts

Not so long as everyone knows this.

That scene always makes me want to play Defcon.

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Someone had to post it, awesome.
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PlzDuntBanMe

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#13 PlzDuntBanMe
Member since 2008 • 3269 Posts
Very low. Countries only need it to scare other countries. But they will never launch it.
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deactivated-59d151f079814

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#14 deactivated-59d151f079814
Member since 2003 • 47239 Posts
pretty likely.. Mostly due to the fact that the United States and Russia refuse to take the large amount of nuclear payload off of readiness.. Which basically means they could launch their payloads in 15 minutes notice.. Which is completely unacceptable imo, it should take hours not minutes to committ to a nuclear launch.. This would stop a panic reaction from happening which is much more likely going to happen.. In all honesty if people are worried in a armegeddon like scenerios.. I would be more worried about biological weapons.. They are just as dangerous if not more so, and they are extremely painful as well.
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UnknownSniper65

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#15 UnknownSniper65
Member since 2004 • 9238 Posts

A nuclear war will never happen...Nuclear weapons were a giant waste of time and don't serve any purpose militarily in today's world. If anything they are a giant liability and need to be stored away and made incapable of use.

Whats the point of waging war with a weapon that will equal your own destruction...there is a reason why the cold war never materialized into a real war between the USSR and the US.

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danwallacefan

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#16 danwallacefan
Member since 2008 • 2413 Posts
right now its slim to none. the most likely scenario would be an accidental launch by the russians.
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GabuEx

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#17 GabuEx
Member since 2006 • 36552 Posts
Quite frankly I think it would have already happened if it was going to.
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HybridPhoenix

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#18 HybridPhoenix
Member since 2007 • 3598 Posts
Don;t think it'll happen unless someone's suicidal.
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onlinegamefan

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#19 onlinegamefan
Member since 2008 • 100 Posts
I dont think nuclear war will happen, even the third world war is impossible. if there is a big war i think it will be the war between human and aliens :D
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Dr_Brocoli

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#20 Dr_Brocoli
Member since 2007 • 3724 Posts
there wont be one, plus there are more and more missle defense system. Plus whats the point? It does more harm than good and you kill mroe civilians than enemy soldiers.
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AncientNecro

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#21 AncientNecro
Member since 2003 • 4957 Posts
I dont think nuclear war will happen, even the third world war is impossible. if there is a big war i think it will be the war between human and aliens :Donlinegamefan
in which case, global nuclear holocaust is a much more desirable alternative
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Forumposter

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#22 Forumposter
Member since 2008 • 847 Posts
i see it likely in the future, oh those will be bad times =/ biological/nuclear/chemical warfare is just way too terrible
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thepwninator

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#23 thepwninator
Member since 2006 • 8134 Posts
I think that, at some point in humanity's future, nuclear weapons will be dropped again.
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GabuEx

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#24 GabuEx
Member since 2006 • 36552 Posts

I think that, at some point in humanity's future, nuclear weapons will be dropped again.thepwninator

I'm not really sure about that; if one side has nukes and the other doesn't, then the side with the nukes can win. The only real way to prevent the use of nukes is the knowledge that their use will lead to one's own demise as well.

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DJ_Novakain

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#25 DJ_Novakain
Member since 2008 • 2147 Posts

Not so long as everyone knows this.

That scene always makes me want to play Defcon.

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I love me some DEFCON. Even if the cpu is a cheater...
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duxup

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#26 duxup
Member since 2002 • 43443 Posts

[QUOTE="thepwninator"]I think that, at some point in humanity's future, nuclear weapons will be dropped again.GabuEx

I'm not really sure about that; if one side has nukes and the other doesn't, then the side with the nukes can win. The only real way to prevent the use of nukes is the knowledge that their use will lead to one's own demise as well.

Even if that were the case that assumes that if both sides have nukes they'll both act rationally. I'm not sure that is something you can rely on.
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thepwninator

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#27 thepwninator
Member since 2006 • 8134 Posts

[QUOTE="thepwninator"]I think that, at some point in humanity's future, nuclear weapons will be dropped again.GabuEx

I'm not really sure about that; if one side has nukes and the other doesn't, then the side with the nukes can win. The only real way to prevent the use of nukes is the knowledge that their use will lead to one's own demise as well.

Mankind has the potential to be around for a long time, and it's quite likely that, at some point during that time, there will be a proverbial perfect storm in which someone will drop the bomb on someone else.
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Makemap

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#28 Makemap
Member since 2007 • 3755 Posts
Anytime when oneof those big countries attack. Watch out for frames! :!
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Stevo_the_gamer

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#29 Stevo_the_gamer  Moderator
Member since 2004 • 49576 Posts
No nation would be stupid enough to use them -- doing so would be political suicide. However, if a terrorist organization got ahold of one ...
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GabuEx

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#30 GabuEx
Member since 2006 • 36552 Posts

Mankind has the potential to be around for a long time, and it's quite likely that, at some point during that time, there will be a proverbial perfect storm in which someone will drop the bomb on someone else.thepwninator

I didn't say that mankind will never enter into a nuclear war (I can't know that for absolutely certain, although I think it's unlikely); what I was saying is that if one side has them and another side doesn't, then they will definitely be used.

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thepwninator

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#31 thepwninator
Member since 2006 • 8134 Posts

[QUOTE="thepwninator"]Mankind has the potential to be around for a long time, and it's quite likely that, at some point during that time, there will be a proverbial perfect storm in which someone will drop the bomb on someone else.GabuEx

I didn't say that mankind will never enter into a nuclear war (I can't know that for absolutely certain, although I think it's unlikely); what I was saying is that if one side has them and another side doesn't, then they will definitely be used.

The manner in which you quoted my post earlier made me think you misread my post or something :P
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Jacobistheman

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#32 Jacobistheman
Member since 2007 • 3975 Posts
Well right now the nuclear war between Pakastan and India is closer to happening than any other time, between any other nations in history. I don't think it will happen, but if it is going to happen, it will happen soon.
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-Katsuri-

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#33 -Katsuri-
Member since 2008 • 61883 Posts
Nukes don't come cheap. I doubt anyone would want to start one.
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k3nne3e

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#34 k3nne3e
Member since 2008 • 473 Posts
right now its slim to none. the most likely scenario would be an accidental launch by the russians. danwallacefan
why do you say russians you have total faith in your own country, im not saying i dont i just mean why could it be only accidental on the russians part
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-Sun_Tzu-

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#35 -Sun_Tzu-
Member since 2007 • 17384 Posts
Well right now the nuclear war between Pakastan and India is closer to happening than any other time, between any other nations in history. I don't think it will happen, but if it is going to happen, it will happen soon.Jacobistheman
The chance of a nuclear war was greater during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
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Jacobistheman

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#36 Jacobistheman
Member since 2007 • 3975 Posts

A nuclear war will never happen...Nuclear weapons were a giant waste of time and don't serve any purpose militarily in today's world. If anything they are a giant liability and need to be stored away and made incapable of use.

Whats the point of waging war with a weapon that will equal your own destruction...there is a reason why the cold war never materialized into a real war between the USSR and the US.

UnknownSniper65
You just answered your question about how they serve a purpose in today's military world. They are a deterrent, no one is going to try to invade the US becuase they could be destroyed in 2 hours if the US decided to, same with Russia.
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Videodogg

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#37 Videodogg
Member since 2002 • 12611 Posts
Nuclear War..maybe not, but somebody somewhere will detonate a nuke in a big city in our life time..im sure of it.
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duxup

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#38 duxup
Member since 2002 • 43443 Posts
[QUOTE="Jacobistheman"]Well right now the nuclear war between Pakastan and India is closer to happening than any other time, between any other nations in history. I don't think it will happen, but if it is going to happen, it will happen soon.-Sun_Tzu-
The chance of a nuclear war was greater during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Agreed, you had military advisers advising the president on actions that without question would have resulted in the use of nuclear weapons. There is tension between Pakistan and India, but in this case with terrorism the main issue they're actually more likley to both reach their goals cooperating.This is not as close as the Cuban Missile Crisis.
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Jacobistheman

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#39 Jacobistheman
Member since 2007 • 3975 Posts
[QUOTE="Jacobistheman"]Well right now the nuclear war between Pakastan and India is closer to happening than any other time, between any other nations in history. I don't think it will happen, but if it is going to happen, it will happen soon.-Sun_Tzu-
The chance of a nuclear war was greater during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Well I guess it might have been, but neither the US or USSR was willing to die over the ideas about government; people are willing to die over religion, that is the difference.
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Jacobistheman

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#40 Jacobistheman
Member since 2007 • 3975 Posts
[QUOTE="-Sun_Tzu-"][QUOTE="Jacobistheman"]Well right now the nuclear war between Pakastan and India is closer to happening than any other time, between any other nations in history. I don't think it will happen, but if it is going to happen, it will happen soon.Jacobistheman
The chance of a nuclear war was greater during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Well I guess it might have been, but neither the US or USSR was willing to die over the ideas about government; people are willing to die over religion, that is the difference.

Also becasue North Korea didn't sign the nonaggression pact again, tensions are likely to climb over there.
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OBLOK

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#41 OBLOK
Member since 2004 • 1257 Posts
2 nukes were dropped in Japan, so i think its highly likely.
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-Sun_Tzu-

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#42 -Sun_Tzu-
Member since 2007 • 17384 Posts

[QUOTE="-Sun_Tzu-"][QUOTE="Jacobistheman"]Well right now the nuclear war between Pakastan and India is closer to happening than any other time, between any other nations in history. I don't think it will happen, but if it is going to happen, it will happen soon.Jacobistheman
The chance of a nuclear war was greater during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Well I guess it might have been, but neither the US or USSR was willing to die over the ideas about government; people are willing to die over religion, that is the difference.

The recent tension between Pakistan and India isn't because of religion. It is because Pakistani terrorists attacked India and the Pakistani government hasn't exactly been very cooperative.

And no, the U.S. and USSR were not willing to die because of their respective ideologies. But if you were to place nuclear missiles just 90 miles from my country, and you aren't willing to move them, I am going to assume that you are planning a nuclear attack, and I'll be very tempted to strike you first before you can strike me.

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Jacobistheman

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#43 Jacobistheman
Member since 2007 • 3975 Posts

[QUOTE="Jacobistheman"][QUOTE="-Sun_Tzu-"] The chance of a nuclear war was greater during the Cuban Missile Crisis.-Sun_Tzu-

Well I guess it might have been, but neither the US or USSR was willing to die over the ideas about government; people are willing to die over religion, that is the difference.

The tension between Pakistan and India isn't because of religion. It is because Pakistani terrorists attacked India and the Pakistani government hasn't exactly been very cooperative.

And no, the U.S. and USSR were not willing to die because of their respective ideologies. But if you were to place nuclear missiles just 90 miles from my country, and you aren't willing to move them, I am going to assume that you are planning a nuclear attack, and I'll be very tempted to strike you first before you can strike me.

No, it is because of religion. The terrorism is a relatively new thing. They have been fighting since they gained independence from Great Britain over a lot of religion stuff, mainly the waters of the Indus rivers which has some religious significance. Everytime they fight--which is quite often--relations go downhill. It was before these terrorist attacks that I learned that they are closer. The atomic bulletin put is closer than we ever were during the cold war mainly because of tentions between these two countries, and the tests in North Korea.
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duxup

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#44 duxup
Member since 2002 • 43443 Posts
[QUOTE="-Sun_Tzu-"][QUOTE="Jacobistheman"]Well right now the nuclear war between Pakastan and India is closer to happening than any other time, between any other nations in history. I don't think it will happen, but if it is going to happen, it will happen soon.Jacobistheman
The chance of a nuclear war was greater during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Well I guess it might have been, but neither the US or USSR was willing to die over the ideas about government; people are willing to die over religion, that is the difference.

Their willingness to actually go to war was not the only factor, during the Cuban Missile crisis as they had already set policies that if X, Y, or Z happened, the nukes would have been launched. The US was under the mistaken idea that the missiles on Cuba weren't yet armed. They thought they might be able to invade Cuba without nukes being launched. They in fact were armed and the Russian military was under orders to launch those and other nuclear weapons with no confirmation from a central command if they believed they were under attack. One nervous officer could have set it all off.
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-Sun_Tzu-

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#45 -Sun_Tzu-
Member since 2007 • 17384 Posts
[QUOTE="-Sun_Tzu-"]

[QUOTE="Jacobistheman"] Well I guess it might have been, but neither the US or USSR was willing to die over the ideas about government; people are willing to die over religion, that is the difference. Jacobistheman

The tension between Pakistan and India isn't because of religion. It is because Pakistani terrorists attacked India and the Pakistani government hasn't exactly been very cooperative.

And no, the U.S. and USSR were not willing to die because of their respective ideologies. But if you were to place nuclear missiles just 90 miles from my country, and you aren't willing to move them, I am going to assume that you are planning a nuclear attack, and I'll be very tempted to strike you first before you can strike me.

No, it is because of religion. The terrorism is a relatively new thing. They have been fighting since they gained independence from Great Britain over a lot of religion stuff, mainly the waters of the Indus rivers which has some religious significance. Everytime they fight--which is quite often--relations go downhill. It was before these terrorist attacks that I learned that they are closer. The atomic bulletin put is closer than we ever were during the cold war mainly because of tentions between these two countries, and the tests in North Korea.

Yes, historically there have been territorial disputes between the two nations that were fueled by religion. But the recent animosity between the two is because of the terrorist attacks that have occurred in India and the lack of cooperation from the Pakistani government.
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JustPlainLucas

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#46 JustPlainLucas
Member since 2002 • 80441 Posts

How likely is nuclear war, ever? Is it ever likely to happen or do you think that humans will always just stare one another out and back away from using nuclear weapons in tit-for-tat warfare? (I.e the Cuban missile crisis)

Thoughts?

KOTORkicker
You may want to read The Day Before Midnight, by Stephen Hunter. It's about a nuclear missile silo being taken over with the intent to fire the missile at Russia, which would in turn have them firing every missile at us. It's a pretty good action novel that shows just how important it is to stop a nuclear launch from happening. And no, I don't think one will happen in a long long time, if ever. It's just one giant staring contest.
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GabuEx

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#47 GabuEx
Member since 2006 • 36552 Posts

The manner in which you quoted my post earlier made me think you misread my post or something :Pthepwninator

In reading the post again, are you referring to one country nuking another, or the use of nuclear weapons in general (i.e., possibly also by terrorists or whatever)?

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thepwninator

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#48 thepwninator
Member since 2006 • 8134 Posts

[QUOTE="thepwninator"]The manner in which you quoted my post earlier made me think you misread my post or something :PGabuEx

In reading the post again, are you referring to one country nuking another, or the use of nuclear weapons in general (i.e., possibly also by terrorists or whatever)?

Just their use.
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mimic-Denmark

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#49 mimic-Denmark
Member since 2006 • 4382 Posts
A rouge nuke will maybe happend at some time. But nuclear war properly will never happend. And if it does, then the human race dosnt deserve to exist.
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deactivated-59d151f079814

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#50 deactivated-59d151f079814
Member since 2003 • 47239 Posts
there wont be one, plus there are more and more missle defense system. Plus whats the point? It does more harm than good and you kill mroe civilians than enemy soldiers. Dr_Brocoli
Missle defense is a bad thing.. It upsets balance of power which drive nation militaries to create more dangerous weapons that will bypass the said defense.. Hence why there was huge uproar (rightfully so) when the United States left the Balistics treaty to develope a missle defense system.. Basically if the US got a missle defense system, there would be no deterrent for them from doing anything they want, when Nuclear weapons would not be a threat to them..