Star Wars: The Old Republic could sell 3M - Analysts

Cowen and Company firm cites "increasing confidence" in BioWare's upcoming MMORPG; Battlefield 3 to sell 11 million.

Last month, Wedbush Securities' Michael Pachter stated that BioWare's Star Wars: The Old Republic has the potential to sell 2 million units. However, another firm has higher expectations for the massively multiplayer online role-playing game.

The Old Republic will spread to 3 million homes, says Cowen and Company.

In a note to investors obtained by Gamasutra, Doug Creutz and Jason Mueller of financial firm Cowen and Company stated "increasing confidence" in The Old Republic has convinced the company to update its sales forecast for the title from 1.5 million to 3 million units.

The firm remarked that preorders for The Old Republic on Amazon are tracking "well or better" than StarCraft II and World of Warcraft: Cataclysm at the same period in development, two titles that have sold over 3 million units each.

Additionally, the firm believes The Old Republic has the potential to land 2 million subscribers in its first year, up from the 1 million it forecast earlier. If the game reaches such a subscriber base, The Old Republic would be a big hit by the publisher's standards. Electronic Arts said in February The Old Republic would be "substantially profitable" with just 500,000 subscribers, with anything above 1 million monthly users making the game "very profitable."

Cowen and Company also updated its sales forecast for DICE's upcoming modern shooter Battlefield 3. The company now believes Battlefield 3 is "tracking well" ahead of its release and will sell 11 million units during its first year on the market.

For more on Star Wars: The Old Republic, check out GameSpot's latest preview of the game.

Written By

Eddie Makuch is a news editor at GameSpot, and would like to see the Whalers return to Hartford.

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Discussion

206 comments
Booshon
Booshon

@biochimera Its not wow in SW universe. Its the best mmo i ever played and i played alot. I am counting the days those r the loooooooooooooongest 20 days in my life. @Gladestone1 Agree with you.

KrazzyDJ
KrazzyDJ

EA will be laughing all the way to the bank in the fiscal year 2011-2012 !!!

Gladestone1
Gladestone1

rljensen3 This is different its star wars made bye bioware..A very reputibable company..Plus they been making this game for seven years..All the beta testers ive talked to love the game..Cant wait to get my hands on this one..Im sure ill be playing for years to come..Cmon it cant loose its STAR WARS for crying out loud..Plus ive got faith in bioware. They been building this for a long time its there big daddy..They sunk millions of dollars into this game..Want to compete with wow i suppose..Man cant wait to play my bounty hunter, jedi councler..Cant resist im playing both lol..

thorwolfe
thorwolfe

@Fyre8892 And BF3 plans to do that how? By charging renters and used buyers a fee to play online multiplayer for a game that someone already paid full price?

couchtater12345
couchtater12345

Guys if you can't find a real job remember, you can always be an analyst

tanerb
tanerb

i wont be within that 3m for sure after da2 disaster

Fyre8892
Fyre8892

I'm hoping that between BF3 and SWToR this is the year that Activision gets bucked off their high horse; they've been sitting complacently at the top too long without serious thought for innovation or for the customers.

rljensen3
rljensen3

Lets just hope it can sustain. DCUO is already condensing servers. As we know that could be bad, when just a year ago they were pushing it like the next WOW killer. Anythings possible.

soccerpzn
soccerpzn

@biochimera well the only reason its a fail is because they had to get the game into the market to get money to make TOR and mass effect 3. If Bioware had enough money to make Dragon Age 2 and the rest of the games it probably would have turned out pretty good. It was as sacrificed game for the good of other games =D.

biochimera
biochimera

@airmanwilkins A bioware fail = Dragon Age 2. Even the best sometimes bomb. As for TOR, I'm still waiting to see how it actually plays. I'm dreading that it will be just WoW in the star wars universe. Who wants to take out duke devious for the nth time for that damn crystal I want so badly to drop? Rift improved on WoW by making the world more interactive in terms of invasions and so forth, but it is at it's core very similar to WoW. I'm hoping TOR will make larger steps than the baby ones rift did. If it's just WoW in star wars, I think I'll just keep my money.

sune_Gem
sune_Gem

This game interests me because it looks completely different too any other MMO I have played. There's so many "WoW Clones" out there that it's almost been dubbed it's own genre of MMO now. If I was to ever play another MMO, it would have to be different and something I haven't already played before. This game looks to be that. That being said though, the differences could also be it's downfall. That's why I'm waiting for a beta invite, or reviews before I commit to getting this.

escapethyfate
escapethyfate

@Reyveign Hmm, I guess it does actually diverge there, with the gameplay mechanics and all. Either way though I will be trying it out at the eurogamer expo so i'll see if i like it not :P And graphics dont really matter as much if the game itself isnt bugged to hell and the gameplay's good :D And ahh right, so the transit system that i can remember being like that was the LOTRO's one i think :o Not gonna lie, I hated wow with a passion after trying it multiple times xD

warhawk-geeby
warhawk-geeby

I can't comment on The Old Republic, but Battlefield 3 to sell 11 million? Yeah? And then some.

Triton
Triton

GameSlop got my $25.00 pre-order. Go big or don't go at all. lol

airmanwilkins
airmanwilkins

If Bioware is behind this what can go wrong? Someone name me a fail title that came from Bioware... From what I've seen so far this is looking very promising. The only thing that really jumps out at me in a negative way is the graphics, they seem dated. However, I can shrug it off if there's sound core mechanics, some originality, and if it's just plain fun to play.

Master_Vexov
Master_Vexov

I believe SWTOR has been looking very good so far, Bioware has shown many of the functions and some great gameplay videos. SWTOR is looking very promising, even if it lasts 1/2 the year, with many individual story lines and alternates, the game should be great fun for any fan. The game seems to have ended that "You can't have a life + a MMO at the same time" your not required to farm hours a day, that alone eliminates huge pointless wasted time just to progress. The purly negetive posts on SWTOR are I think too bias, I suppose to gamers preference, from what i seen the game stands firm as a fresh new MMO. So long as they atleast hold challenging encounters in group and raid content, perhaps a Hardcore enabled mode atleast for gathered skilled players, then I don't see the problem with it. When i see and play other games, its all high graphics and no real challenge.. they become so lame I don't even finish the games, and that goes double for lame end game stuff.

Alex4789123
Alex4789123

@DemannameD TOR is an MMO, not an action game. It wouldn't make sense for it to play like The Force Unleashed. I'm glad because personally, I hate the Force Unleashed games. Their nothing but mindless hack and slash. If you want to see how a Jedi/Sith should feel, you should check out the Jedi Knight series.

brunorr
brunorr

Another overhyped mmo based on WoW. Nothing to see here folks.

Reyveign
Reyveign

@escapethyfate I'm a closed beta tester. The game has the story elements of the Knights of the Old Republic games, but the controls and skills function like Champions Online (talking about skill usage here, not skill options). Conversations with NPCs functions like Mass Effect. They say something, you get around 3 responses. Positive, neutral, and Negative. The graphics are similar to Clone Wars Adventures, but slightly more serious/mature. The game also 'censors' itself in the way that it's "excessive" violent elements are cleverly hidden. There are also "rapid transit" systems in place that function like World of Warcraft. The best example I can give (as I didn't play WoW long) is the Griffon mounts at the beginning of the game. You talk to a guy, say you want to go here, and you mount a vehicle and auto-move to the location. In my opinion the game has enough unique elements to not come off as "another one of those MMOs", but at the same time, it's really not different enough to appeal to people that HAVE been playing a lot of MMOs. KOTOR fans should be pleased well enough, though.

Judas_III
Judas_III

I don't think the game hype will last more than 3 month before the lazer light show gets boring.

DukeSkymocker
DukeSkymocker

I cancelled my preorder (good chunk of change to get back for the CE), they run their forums & community the way cryptic does, AKA frak the customers. I'd say avoid it for now and see how it survives. that's as kind about it as i can be.

holtrocks
holtrocks

If anything will take WoW down this is it just because the Star Wars fanbase is huge

holtrocks
holtrocks

If anything will take WoW down this is it just because the Star Wars fanbase is huge

holtrocks
holtrocks

@Drakkengoth not in sales but in quality yes

Drakkengoth
Drakkengoth

It must be nice to be paid an entire salary just to say "oh, this could sell that! :D yay!" I would contribute to The Old Republic, I honestly would, but WoW completely and utterly killed MMOs for me. As for Battlefield, it wont take a damn analyst to say "Battlefield 3 will devour CoD"

Viron_Berserker
Viron_Berserker

Analysts also predicted we'd be in flying cars by the year 2000, yet here we are, still stuck with tires.

Gooeykat
Gooeykat

Most expensive MMO of all time, it better sell a bunch and retain at least half. Otherwise, it's safe to say it will be a disappointment. 500K to be profitable but I would imagine EA management would see this as a failure given the time and investment into this behemoth.

zidan4000
zidan4000

@beanies12345678 actually when you look at it , a million or two or even three million copies of sales is nothing strange for these companies , however if you get an analyst to tell me that a game which is not a sequel will sell millions , that would be impressive because that game doesn't have a fanbase and all the buyers mostly will become new fans , unlike sequels which even an average guy can see it selling well without needing to be an economic guru or something, i will tell you that uncharted 3 will sell 2 million at least , i brought nothing new and everybody already knows it judging from the fanbase .

salvucci91
salvucci91

@ronnet You said it; that feeling of obligation to play the game turns the fun into chore.

moncealyo
moncealyo

Wow the old republic is really influential. I bet the jedi final figured out that 3M is owned by the sith. 3M you are going down!!!

ronnet
ronnet

Game looks great but I'm not going back to that old P2P model. Lord of the Ring Online and Age of Conan are free to play right now and Guildwars 2 in the near future as well (minus retail price but not the monthly fee of the P2P model). It's not that I don't want to pay for my games but a monthly fee gives a certain urgency to playing it. As if you need to play it as much as possible to get your money's worth. I want to play when I feel like it and as fast or slow as I wish to. F2P in combination with one time payments for extra content is much better.

Phaselinear
Phaselinear

3 million? That's it? Hmmm.....just me I guess. I'm one of the 3 million. Still waiting for BETA testing.

beanies12345678
beanies12345678

@zidan4000 BEcause it's a large number, and the fact that the numbers are this high is fairly impressive

Diophage
Diophage

If you feel that this isn't news, STOP posting on these kind of articles. If you never bother to view and comment on these type of articles, GameSpot might stop writing them. It's worth a shot if you want them to go away.

GiantsFan2290
GiantsFan2290

all i know is that i make 1 and thats all that matters to me

zidan4000
zidan4000

what is with all these analysts predicting sales? it started with GTA V then Bioshock Infinite and now Starwars? they are not god and they can't predict sales that accurately there is always room for mistakes and i don't think that some dude in a company predicting sales should be news.

escapethyfate
escapethyfate

@JuggaloZero Naa finance isnt the problem, not for me anyway. I just dont like that fact that it's a tried and tested gameplay mechanic being used all over again for an mmo and that really puts me off imo. Obviously neither of the games are out yet so we cant really judge them simply on previews and some gameplay either. But hell, atleast bioware are making this and it should help put a good story to the game, if anything.

JuggaloZero
JuggaloZero

I feel sorry for how many people aren't going to buy this game simply because they're buying another; I'm probably going to be getting GW2 and TOR because they both look great... if only you guys got jobs you wouldn't feel the need to act like fanboy trolls for one game and run around bashing the other. Oh well, at least mommy is going to buy GW2 for you.

escapethyfate
escapethyfate

@Tialian I couldn't have said it better myself :P looking forward to GW2 so bloomin much :D

FoeCrusher
FoeCrusher

Do I want to be there day one... no. I will let the early content debubiing etc be done by others. It will also give them time to make the inevitable adjustment to game play and add some content. On day 365 if it is as good as people are hoping then count me in.

gix47
gix47

i'll be one of those millions :D

JaxxRaxor
JaxxRaxor

The Old Republic will do well but among Subscription MMORPGs it still isn't going to beat WoW, which is still dominate in that market.

Tialian
Tialian

WoW in space with voice acting? Think I'll wait for Guild Wars 2 And yes, I will be getting BF3 of course.

XxCRAFTYxX
XxCRAFTYxX

Beta Weekends start in September dont believe the pathological liars that are scared this is going to kill WoW and are trolling.....WoW has lost a million subs recently deal with it it's time is over....The Old Republic and Guild Wars 2 are going to be the new guard of MMO in the coming years...

AzelKosMos
AzelKosMos

I could also run for Prime Minister. I hate analysts, pointless news imo XD

TheUchia96
TheUchia96

@Demannamed you are playing the beta??? How ??

DemannameD
DemannameD

I'm playing the beta, Its cool new star wars story, but the combat is weak, sluggish and unresponsive. I feel like Starwars force unleashed set a new standard as to how playing a jedi\sith should feel. At least from what I've experienced Its not as much fun as the BattleFront series nor is the RPG aspect as good as KOTOR was. I hate to bust bubbles here but the last StarWars online game had a tough time being given away. Can't help but feel the entire time that I'm playing two games that shouldn't have been smashed together.

StuBishbat
StuBishbat

@lazycomplife after their last beta before it was released for pre-order, they stated the next one would take place in september.

singhellotaku
singhellotaku

meh I've yet to find a mmo that really impresses me

santinegrete
santinegrete

This game could be the title that help to raise and adopt EA's Origin. I hope it does, because if it fails, they'll use Battlefield 3 or Mass Effect 3 to do so, and those are the games that got me hanging.