Analysts split on Take-Two guidance

Pacific Crest's Evan Wilson believes BioShock bolstering publisher until GTAIV arrival, while Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter is skeptical of Rockstar's expectations.

Yesterday, Take-Two Interactive reported better-than-expected revenues for its fourth fiscal quarter. For the quarter ended October 31, the publisher posted $292.6 million in net revenue, with net losses trimmed to of $7.1 million. The publisher also revealed its first-quarter guidance for fiscal year '08, projecting net revenues to fall between $175 million and $225 million. While the results were better than many industry watchers anticipated, they still fell far short of Take-Two's initial assessment of the quarter, when Rockstar Games' Grand Theft Auto IV was still on the table for October 16.

Pacific Crest Securities analyst Evan Wilson noted the publisher's Q4 results were significant, primarily due to GTA's absence. "Q4 was the first quarter that Take-Two has produced [an operating] profit without significant GTA revenue," said Wilson in an industry note to investors. "This may give investors confidence that [Take-Two's] restructuring is tangible and producing increased profitability, although the release of BioShock is the primary reason for the improvement, in our estimation."

Speculating on further signs of profitability, Wilson referenced the recently released trailer for 3D Realms Duke Nukem Forever, saying, "While the game does not appear to be close to completion, the trailer may promote rumors that the game will actually be released after 10 years in development." Wilson recently upgraded the publisher's stock, believing Take-Two's growth will outperform the gaming industry as a whole in the coming 12 months on the strength of GTAIV.

While Wilson believes Take-Two will ride GTAIV to a complete turnaround for the lawsuit-beset publisher, Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter had a far more critical assessment of Take-Two's future. Speaking bluntly, Pachter cast a shadow on the expectations of Take-Two's highly coveted ace. "We are not convinced that GTA IV will be the panacea that investors anticipate," he said.

While Pachter believes GTAIV will sell 9 million units, as well as garner an additional 2.5 million downloads in bonus content for the Xbox 360 version, he isn't ready to buy into Take-Two's assessment of the game's impact on the publisher's bottom line. "While we expect the game to perform quite well, we think that the implied profit forecast is barely credible," he said. According to Pachter, management guidance indicates publishing revenues of around $975 million in Q2 to Q4 of Take-Two's fiscal 2008. "We find it remarkable that Take-Two management believes that operating income for the last three quarters of FY:08 can grow by $200 million on publishing revenue growth of only $445 million," he commented.

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46 comments
zhevox
zhevox

pfft....thats what u get from delaying the most anticipated game of the year(for almost half a year i say)....

_-Mavus-_
_-Mavus-_

Heh, yeah g8summit, if you want to buy a HD-DVD player for the 360 go right ahead but it won't increase game performance. I have to agree with your statement about the Wii, this is why it pays to have the Wii and a 360 (engh I don't want a ps3, sony is worse then EA).

mohmaaytah
mohmaaytah

g8summit, the X360 is DVD based so what are you talking about? They have a max of 9GB to work with even on the 360.

g8summit
g8summit

It wont go on the wii, and if it does it will be very watered down. They wouldn't even be able to fit such a detailed city on the DVD for wii. It pushes the space of even the HD-DVD. Plus the graphics would be much crappier. They would have to do a lot of extra work to make it compatible for the wii. I doubt they will do it seeing the Wii's fan base isn't such a violence loving one compared to the other systems.

tjdeep_2007
tjdeep_2007

i think they r planning for wii version also

-Raiden-
-Raiden-

I dont now if i shall buy the PS3 version or the PC version! Hope for a PC version soon! ;-)

knux15
knux15

Are they nuts!?! They really think they are on top of the world, don't they... Man o man they are on something.

Chief_Kuuni
Chief_Kuuni

well it'll be a great game none the less

cyclonekath
cyclonekath

Unsure if this GTAIV will be as big as the others, the game just seems so wildly different than what gone before and is becoming less and less unique as more clones come out. That said I'd kill for a PC version of it...

byrnesi
byrnesi

i've only played Gta on consoles so i don't mind what they decide to do with it.

JB2B
JB2B

I'm in doubt. Will I get GTA for my Xbox or will I get it for the PC. The PC has the advantage that you can find trainers for it. So when you finished the game and think the fun is over you can reincarnate the fun. Got one for Vice City which is great. By pressing ALT+[numer] cars drop out of the sky and a lot more.

DeLashmutt1980
DeLashmutt1980

modest. conservative. fine. Lets put some of that extra $ $ $ towards GTA IV and get it out before another year goes by.

darthlegion360
darthlegion360

To me, that just means 2008 will be just that much better a year for games. I'm honestly a little relieved GTAIV was pushed back, as this is arguably the best holiday season gaming has ever had. Mass Effect, Halo 3, Bioshock, Gears of War, Assassin's Creed, Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare, The Orange Box, G.R.A.W., Forza 2, and PGR4 (phew!)are all games I got this August or later, so I'm glad I'm not even able to spend the money on it just yet.

metamorfoza
metamorfoza

GTAIV should be released and for PC. Making it exclusive for consoles will effectively have an impact on revenues and/or success of the game. Not to mention that it will affect actual gamers who are avid players but don't own one of the systems. I doubt that Bioshock would be such success if it was released just for consoles, or vice versa - releasing it just for PC wouldn't generate any revenues from the console market pie. Hence, the numbers they are talking in this article would be totally different and there woudl not be *such*(M.Patcher) doubts on a GTAIV success.

BlackEmbryo
BlackEmbryo

uhhhhh......im gonna be buying GTA4 as soon as it gets out....its all i gotta say, if you don't, good. More for the rest of us who really want it!

NWA_31
NWA_31

Bioshock is just so awesome. Not only is it an awesome game, but it's also buying them time to make GTA IV even better. :) *Hugs copy of Bioshock*

Jaeme
Jaeme

I think a great number of people have not realized the number of gamers who are NOT interested in GTA4. 3 was good, Vice City interesting, but that was as far I it held my interest. I owned San Andreas, but could not bring myself to play all the way through. I am far from alone. The lack of sales for the "Stories" pseudo spin off is a testament to the cooling of interest in this series. I am not disparaging the game/series, nor am I saying it will be a flop. I`m just saying that the numbers being thrown around regarding GTA4 are seriously out of touch. 9 million copies is virtually 1 copy for every 3 PS3s and 360s sold (maybe 1 in 4 by the time of launch). That kind of attach rate is unheard of even for Halo or Mario titles. Not that many gamers are interested in being thugs anymore. Take Two better start unleashing more games like Bioshock, like 2 or more a year if they`re expecting those kinds of profit numbers. Sorry, but I think Rockstar has lost its luster.

XXRandom-HeroXX
XXRandom-HeroXX

Quit with the lies already, You were told before that GTAIV isn't out in Chile.

wilt1725grog
wilt1725grog

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

okassar
okassar

You can't underestimate GTA,I expect no less than they do.GTA IV will,and should,OWN.I mean,comeon,it's a high-graphical next-gen pimpin' sandbox.

GIF
GIF

Who really cares what Pachter thinks? He is a windbag who throws out wild predictions that are more often wrong than correct and to top that all off, he doesn't even play nor love games. Hes an anaylst who used to number crunching and predicting one pack of falacies after another.

TristanH12
TristanH12

Does it really need to take more than 10 years to bring a Duke Nukem Forever?

latchol1Sim
latchol1Sim

Maybe it did better than Halo because it was better than Halo? Just a suggestion (I honestly don't know which is 'better').

Pete5506
Pete5506

As long as the game is good, and long

General-Fenix
General-Fenix

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Roman_Slayer
Roman_Slayer

@k2theswiss "it well do better then halo just bcuz it be on 2 sytems instade like halo only 1 btw it be better on 360 bcuz it's being made for the 360 and ps3 just be geting a copy lol" lern 2 spaek roflmao

peeweeshift
peeweeshift

gta 4 was going to launch on my birthday. even with rumours rockstar still toted their head high saying they rocked and would deliver on time. then they screwed over and gave it too us late

Arnoco
Arnoco

I was depressed for month when i heard that GTA 4 will get delayed to 2008 Q1 but now im all excited now and cant wait for this game to be released

daveyf03
daveyf03

Well for what it's worth, I'm buying a copy.

jokey
jokey

yes gta4 will be the game with the highest sellrate of 08 i think :)

k2theswiss
k2theswiss

it well do better then halo just bcuz it be on 2 sytems instade like halo only 1 btw it be better on 360 bcuz it's being made for the 360 and ps3 just be geting a copy lol

normal_man
normal_man

GTAIV... and nothing is needed 8)

k2theswiss
k2theswiss

cant wait untill spring 08 and fall because 1~fable 2~fall 2~gta 3~battlefield bad company ~unreal tourment

Gackt55
Gackt55

Yeah, i think GTA IV will sell very good! :) And now i really want a exact release date, this is the only game i'am looking forward to right now! ^.^

Mujambo
Mujambo

I remember reading an article stating that they had an option to borrow money with a bank in case of shortfalls. If they did this well, hopefully they won't need it anymore. It'll be better for investors. More importantly, this game needs to release so we can all get our copies of it :)

endocrine
endocrine

I just hope this game is original. Where as the last two GTAs were just a rehash of GTA 3 (including the graphics).

Cubbies
Cubbies

Want a release date soon please...

GingeOnGinger
GingeOnGinger

25th April 2008, Gamesradar rekons GTA IV will be out

Chaudzff
Chaudzff

I agree, GTA is a massive Franchise, It can easily do what Halo did For Microsoft.

cartman_eric666
cartman_eric666

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

steven141
steven141

I do believe that GTAIV will earn the company a lot of money, it has a huge fan-base