Take-Two stock gets upgraded

Pacific Crest Securities' Evan Wilson bumps his estimation of Grand Theft Auto publisher's shares up to "outperform."

Take-Two Interactive is all over the news today. First the publisher announced its entry into the boxing genre with Don King Presents: Prizefighter, then it won an appeal in the British courts to overturn a ban on Manhunt 2. Now one analyst is changing his opinion of the company's stock.

Pacific Crest Securities' Evan Wilson today changed his assessment of Take-Two stock from "Sector Perform" to "Outperform," which indicates his belief that the publisher will outpace the general gaming industry for the next 12 months. However, this is a reflection both of Wilson's expectations for Grand Theft Auto IV, as well as a general slowdown in the growth pace of the industry at large.

Wilson also said the stock may benefit from speculation of a buyout prompted by the recent Activision-Vivendi Games merger. However, he notes such a deal might be less likely than ever, given that Activision and Vivendi were two of "only a few qualified potential acquirers," and they are both effectively out of the equation now.

For Take-Two to hit its projections, Wilson estimates that it will need to sell 8 million copies of Grand Theft Auto IV this fiscal year, with 4 million at launch (the company's fiscal second quarter), and 2 million each in the third and fourth quarters. He also admits that number could be tough to reach due to the limited installed user bases for the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3, which he estimates at 24.4 million in the US, Europe, Middle East, and Africa through March 2008.

Even so, Wilson believes the publisher will stand out from its peers as the industry growth tapers off or even declines slightly over the first half of 2008. And if Take-Two can actually address a number of issues that have plagued it in recent years--including lack of consistency, run-ins with government regulators, an unprofitable 2K Sports line--it has the potential to double its share price.

"Even with our reservations, we can't ignore the fact that more and more investors will come to understand this potential as they are forced to take another look at Take-Two due to the upcoming release of GTA IV," Wilson wrote.

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Discussion

69 comments
zeeshan810
zeeshan810

yea...i hope we get the game GTA 4 before those losersss wwhoo always trying to ban any violence game.

Keith4Chelski
Keith4Chelski

I hope the UK does attain this game before those Yanks we certainly do deserve it more than them, The simple fact about Americans are that they are unhealthy creatures and most deffinetly need excersize, GTA:IV is the last thing the Americans need it will just be bad for them just imagine the number of those horrible vile fat Yanks playing their consoles getting even more fattier it simply just cannot do it makes me rather sick.

zhevox
zhevox

woot! go Rockstar! be waiting for GTA IV!

unkymo1
unkymo1

i can't wait for this game but i'm happy it was delayed. i get 3 months to play rock band!!!

sniper_849
sniper_849

the game comes out march 4 not much longer my brother works for rock star so there is the release date

sniper_849
sniper_849

the game comes out march 4 not much longer my brother works for rock star so there is the release date

sniper_849
sniper_849

the game comes out march 4 not much longer my brother works for rockstar so there is the release date

sniper_849
sniper_849

the game comes out march 4 not much longer my brother works for rockstar so there is the release date

sniper_849
sniper_849

the game comes out march 4 not much longer my brother works for rockstar so there is the release date

acoustic404
acoustic404

dead_god86 is right. Calm down and wait. it's just a game. it well be better the longer we wait.....

705H1R0
705H1R0

diablusx, your ignorance is clear. 8 Million is a lot. Not even Halo 3 has sold that many....yet. Oh, and delay delay delay. Delays suck. dead_god86, games do not get better with age. Judging by the trailers versus current expectations, the characters are already looking a little low-poly.

OtakuRay
OtakuRay

I want a PC version of it, and yeah this is ging to sell a hell lot of copies.

dead_god86
dead_god86

To all you lil n00bs complaining about the delay of GTA4, STFU, why are people so impatient it's just a game, i'm sick of people talking about it's delays everywhere i go. You will have it soon enough, and it will be better the longer you wait for it @Jokey, i'm sure they will release a PC version, i have all the others on PC, so i dont' see why they wouldn't but GTA is a console game mainly, and this game is the only reason i bought a 360 2 days ago lol

jokey
jokey

if they dont release a pc version of the game, they will never sell enough copies but the end of that fiscal year

345669
345669

GTA IV's new trailer is what made them think this. This one game alone will make up for most of the profits.

SiLENT_K1LL
SiLENT_K1LL

I think rockstar will exceed sales if they stop delaying GTAIV.

astex
astex

i think its coming out on january and i pre-ordered it for the ps3 for €92 for special edition on amazon and it will be way better on the ps3 than xbox 360

diablusx
diablusx

I just think it is funny that they have to sell only 8 million versions of GTA4 across the globe to have a good year. If there was betting on this who would bet against it? Still, 2K sports had better do something or else it does not matter what the other companies do if 2K sports drags the company down.

snowy2007
snowy2007

I really want GTA4 so PLEASE!!!!!! give us the release date NOW!!!!!!

jmartin1016
jmartin1016

This is unfortunate. 2K sports produce better games than EA almost every time for the last several years. It's unfortunate that people continue to buy Madden, because they get such a large return from it they have no need to improve it what so ever. Also I hear that EA is one of the worst companies in the US to work for. Buying Madden is equivalent to supporting slavery!

LaGouge
LaGouge

With simultaneous support on both next gen consoles you've got to think that 8 million is doable. This game seem to bring out fanboys of both colours who denouce eachother's systems all the time. I think in this context we can agree that whether it's 360 or PS3 we're all going to benefit. I feel sorry for all those Wii-ners out there who are still trying to act like a new Mario game is something to get excited about.

JayMezzy
JayMezzy

I think its a shame that 2K Sports aint gettin profit like it should, they put out great sports title year after year, especially B-Ball and baseball!! Ppl need to wake up and stop being on EAnuts, Madden sucks on next-gen!! Give the license back NFL!!! Free-Market!!

MarcjinJaume
MarcjinJaume

it must be considered also the number of people who will buy a console just for this game at the moment it's released

jandogg
jandogg

well i hate microsoft or bringing this to 360. because now grand theft auto is ruined! if its a ps3 exclusive it will be better. like a Bigger map. please make this ps3 exclusive again!

les_pinner-3
les_pinner-3

Still no official date of release date? Ah well from what Ive read the earliest date is early March (fingers crossed) and I just hope it will come out then and they better not delay it again, Ive been waiting for this game since early 2006! But Ive got a feeling that this game is going to be worth the wait and money. Keep On Gaming Folks!

TMontana1004
TMontana1004

QFT Heroface. I had to wait a whole year for San Andreas.

heroface
heroface

we already know it's finished on 360 we read it right here not so long ago... no one is denying it.. just sony's lawyers can't handle getting a GTA game second for the first time ever... it 'wouldn't be fair' even though us box types have missed whole games or waited whole years in the past... they just need to stop crying and get this thing released

joshyoung55
joshyoung55

i agree with digi_dragon324, Wazza is a plank. The games been finnished on the 360 allready the playstation even if it is amazing just takes longer to make games for. it's just the conversion that takes time. I dunno if it is just me that has done this but I have basically played through each trailer frame by frame and it looks pretty dam finnished to me.

DeLashmutt1980
DeLashmutt1980

Invest three to four weeks before and sell two to three weeks after the release... no one ever got rich Day trading and why Gamespot is wasting our time with this is beyond me... sincerely, Concerned Gamer!

MasterSandman
MasterSandman

Hackologue, I think its coming out in march, A guy from Gamspot told me

gamah_killah
gamah_killah

Well, they better have lots of touch-ups for the game until 08. It's going to be BIG.

hackologue
hackologue

In my latest 360 mag it says its coming out in february?

XXRandom-HeroXX
XXRandom-HeroXX

Its coming out in The first Quarter of the year, so thats around April at the Latest, iv had my limited edition pre ordered since June, i was the very first to pre order it, so they are giving me the Game boxes that are in shops now, cause they wont be around when the real case is out, and a Duffel bag, soundtack, lockbox and artbook is included in the limited

RaiKageRyu
RaiKageRyu

I can see it happening considering the last GTA game has breached 10 million.

DON_DU
DON_DU

so why dont they tell us when gta4 is coming out

MasterChief725
MasterChief725

U think GTA IV can turn around the company?? 1 game??....probably

Crazy_Kid314
Crazy_Kid314

ive had mine pre-ordered since september, and i really don't care how long it takes to make the game, just as long that it is worth $60

gta4_2112
gta4_2112

it will sell more than 8 million

Huggy12345
Huggy12345

GTA IV will probably sell more than 10 million copies, we've been waiting for nearly 3 years now for it and this was the longest RockStar has worked on a single GTA game so this is guaranteed to sell, and if anyone who love the GTA franchise but doesn't have an Xbox or a PS3, they're gonna probably buy one, just like what I did.

wars45
wars45

it well sell 8 milllon hell it will sell ten gta will rock

meneger
meneger

Whoever is comparing the wii to the 360 and ps3, please for the love of god p*** off. The wii doesn't belong in the 360 and ps3 generation of consoles because it is inferior hence its low price. The only reason wii sells is because it is aimed at families so parents are more willing to part their cash. 360 and PS3 are the legendary consoles compared to the wii, just look at games such as Halo3, GoW, GTA4, etc.

digi_dragon324
digi_dragon324

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Cubbies
Cubbies

I hope there is a release date soon, dieing for the game.

Siz2005
Siz2005

GTA 4 for PC may not come still 2009

Siz2005
Siz2005

GTA 4 Eight millon copies, there will be a need for bigger PS3 and 360 user base if that going to happen. Not to the mention the fact that PS3 and 360 are both having their a**es handed by Wii. P.S I own a PS3 and iam not a Nintendo fan.