Analyst predicts Xbox One, PS4 shortages at launch

Colin Sebastian of Robert W. Baird says due to "complexity" of coordinating platform launches, gamers can expect initial shortages at retail.

Gamers should expect initial shortages of Xbox One and PlayStation 4 units at retail this holiday, according to Robert W. Baird analyst Colin Sebastian.

Speaking with GameSpot, the analyst said due to the "complexity" of coordinating the launches, "it is more likely than not that there will be initial shortages."

"This also partly explains why the manufacturers have been somewhat judicious in allocating pre-sale units to retailers, so that there won't be a lot of unhappy customers from day one," Sebastian said.

As for which platform will debut on the market first, Sebastian didn't have a projection to give, but said the system that does go first will enjoy some advantages.

"From a timing perspective, both platforms will want to launch before Thanksgiving/Black Friday, and ideally at least a couple of weeks in advance of that in order to replenish the retail channel," Sebastian said.

"In terms of who goes first, it would certainly be ideal to launch first, and gain all of the initial attention and momentum, as console launches are really the only equivalent of a 'red carpet' event for the industry," he added.

The $500 Xbox One is slated for a launch in November, while the $400 PS4 is confirmed only for holiday 2013.

Expectations for both systems are high, with Ubisoft saying yesterday that some retailers have reported two times the number of preorders over historical data for current-generation machines.

Representatives for Sterne Agee and Cowen & Company could not be reached for comment on Xbox One and PS4 release timing, while analysts at Wedbush Securities and EEDAR declined to comment.

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Discussion

569 comments
GryffinDarkBred
GryffinDarkBred

Next on NSNW, your No Shit News Source, psychic child predicts weather with song, says "The Sun will come out... TOMORROW!"

kryotech
kryotech

...and this is news how? Shortages are always an expectation....

mont345
mont345

Of course theres gonna be more xbox ones at launch cause hardly no one is preordering , everyone that I no is getting ps4 cause xbox one is to much therefore there will be more xbox one sitting in stores, duh!!

bgranli
bgranli

Wow, it's like he can see the future!

dnlgonzal
dnlgonzal

Did Captain Obvious write this article? 

whitetiger3521
whitetiger3521

Considering both consoles are not backwards compatible and if people can't get ahold of it, it's not gonna be that big of a deal. There is plenty of games coming to the PS3 and 360 to keep people busy beyond the launch of the new consoles. I'm sure alot of people will wait until either they are available at stores, more games get released, or after a price drop.

immortaltech6
immortaltech6

I project at least 40% of those preorders are made up of resellers aka cutting in pre-established lines of distribution free market parasite scum. 

Sony & M$ are gonna be surprised with how little these numbers reflect on the actual people that buy games during the initial launch period. 

Pay me now Baird & Co. 

KingMaple
KingMaple

In other news, the sky is blue. More at 11....

DarklordDKL
DarklordDKL

Why the hell is this still the top story? Every system has shortages at launch. Well, except for Playstation handhelds.

Other bold predictions that Gamespot can feel free to use for a headline: Analyst predicts there will be an Assassin's Creed 5; Analyst predicts Mario and Link in next Super Smash Bros; Analyst predicts politician will blame video games for next school shooting.

hadlee73
hadlee73

This is good news. Now only the cool people will own them to begin with. Just kidding :P

Deathsmiles76
Deathsmiles76

I reserved my xbox one during e3 announcement at best buy. After I pick it up I should post it on ebay make a cool grand then buy another one latter during Xmas and use the extra money to get a ps4 as well and a few games and with the best buy points I will make out like a bandit. Give me your damned loot lol

skiggy29
skiggy29

Im a neutral gamer and am looking forward to both consoles. However I still dont understand why Sony said to make pre orders unlimited when they knew that they would never be able to supply the amount of ps4's reserved in time??  It never happoens seamlessly. Theres always a shortage.  I can see it now, there are going to be a lot of pissed off PS4 fans out there this holiday.. 

bkohary
bkohary

Analyst predicts that Superman can beat Batman, unless Batman has Kryptonite handy.

bkohary
bkohary

The analyst has also warned about the future of the next gen consoles by saying "Tomorrow is another day!"

bkohary
bkohary

The same analyst faps when he reads his paycheck he receives for giving said information. 

bkohary
bkohary

The same analyst also makes the bold prediction that people will line up at stores to buy the next gen consoles.

Daian
Daian

How do you end up being paid to state things that everyone realize? Can someone tell me? I'd love to get paid to state the obvious.

holtrocks
holtrocks

In other news the sun will rise tomorrow.

EatShanna
EatShanna

Man,  being an analyst is so cool, you state the obvious and get paid. 

cursealoud
cursealoud

Hopefully they have loose units available at launch so I can change my pre-order down payment of PS4 to get XBOX ONE since you can't pre-order any longer. 

Lord_of_Terrans
Lord_of_Terrans

Since we won't see many next gen game until mid 2014 at least, i can wait

ads_legend
ads_legend

What's going to be his next amazing prediction? A rise in Christmas card sales around the holidays? Anybody could tell you that there'd be shortages.

Gorgotheman
Gorgotheman

OMG!!!!! How does he know this?!!!!! These analysts are amazing! I wish I could be as smart as they are. How much do these air breathers make a year? Lemme throw a dart at the wall and state the obvious. There-you see! I'm an analyst!

crazyintheface
crazyintheface

Glad I pre-ordered a couple extra. I wonder if I can double my money.

Get_Shorty
Get_Shorty

That's fine, there is no hurry since there is no backwards compatibility - I'll still be playing GTAV.

blackothh
blackothh

this article, or something extremely similar was already posted like last week, and  ill respond the same way


Thank you for the info, overpaid captain obvious.

plm3d_basic
plm3d_basic

No worries folks, there will be plenty of Wii U on store shelves. 

PixelAddict
PixelAddict

Not surprising.  Even if both companies had enough supply to cover demand, they would want analysts saying these things.  Heightens the "cool exclusivity" factor.

I'll wait 'til next summer.  No biggie.

sonic1992
sonic1992

XBOX ONE = PS1

XBOX TWO = PS2

XBOX THREE = PS3

THERE YOU FUCKING GO IT SHOULD BE

Xbox = Xbox 360 = Xbox 720 ?

4le_breVVer
4le_breVVer

500+ comments and 450 say the same thing. This isn't exactly a news worthy story. 

Triton
Triton

Thanks for the news flash Colin, this happens every game launch... well maybe not with the Wii U.

duffc25
duffc25

I remember when people were selling their PS3 for triple the value price on e-bay due to shortages. Just be patient people, the overstock of consoles will flow one day. 

Ayebang
Ayebang

It is sure to have shortage on launch date.

These 2 consoles are not software but tangible ones.

However, in Australia, some say XB 1 have more game to play than PS 4....Hurry up Sony. Do not cut cost too much.

Damnation_6
Damnation_6

I would like to give this analyst the official "No sh*t sherlock !" Award. congrats with the achievement.

sladakrobot
sladakrobot

I am pretty sure there will be no shortage in Germany :)
I havent preordered my X1 yet...still waiting for a X1+Forza 5 bundle.

kelvynabreu
kelvynabreu

Really? what gave it up? the fact that is unavailable for preorder anywhere other than amazon, who does not guarantee launch day delivery, but when they restock after lunch date?

adamh1122
adamh1122

pre ordered ps4 at game, does this effect me?? or is it just people who havent pre ordered who would see this as a problem?

GryffinDarkBred
GryffinDarkBred

@DarklordDKL I don't recall the Wii U having shortages, or the 3DS.  Nintendo's got the whole "trickle feed" logitstics thing down pat.  Don't send out all your units Day 1, because you won't have anything to send out next week.  And the week after that

freedom01
freedom01 moderator

@Deathsmiles76 I dont think they have it in stock for Xmas since pre-orders for both consoles are going crazy

freedom01
freedom01 moderator

@skiggy29 I dont think they would be pissed off, they are well aware that they have a very low chance on getting it, but it still secures them the right to get it when they have it in stock.

CincoToes
CincoToes

@adamh1122 Only effects those who believe in preorders. Show up to a retailer on launch day without a preorder but with enough money, see if you don't leave with a console. PROTIP: You'll leave with a console.

freedom01
freedom01 moderator

. If you preordered right after the announcement of the reveal and the preorder opens then you have secured yourself a ps4 at launch. If you waited a couple of days and then preordered you have a very low chance of getting it

Gorgotheman
Gorgotheman

THAT IS FUNNY! I like to work around the PACIFIC RIM!