Which Exclusive is More Important .....New IPs vs. 3rd Party vs. 1st Party

Which type of exclusive means more in the whole scheme of things?

New IP  (ala "Boogie" for Wii or like Guitar Hero for PS2 when it came out)

3rd Party Exclusives (ala MGS4, FFXIII, etc)

or

1st Party Exclusives (ala Halo, Mario,etc.)

Oh....BTW I say 3rd party...

new IPs

i want to get surprised! 

I think 3rd party exclusives are the most important.

 

New IPs can turn out to be big hits or flops. There is no knowing which it'll be until it comes out. 1st Party exclusives are great, but they can't carry a system by itself. Look at Nintendo and the GC.Zhengi

new IP tends to dominate every generation.

nes - SMB

SNES - fighting games 

ps1 - Grand turismo

ps2 - GTA (technically not new IP, but you get my point)

360 -  gears of war 

Well in the scheme of things 3rd party exclusives are the most important component in the mix. If you think about it, each console is going to have it's own 1st party exclusives and yes the quality of those is going to be the second biggest component, but it's always going to be a toss up on those so if you don't own a Wii you won't get a Mario game, etc.

But being able to exclusively hold down a title from a stellar 3rd party developer is what will make people on the fence decide on a console, and we know that in marketing it's always about the people on the fence! The people on your side are already on your side, the people who are actively against you are lost to the cause, but the people who haven't made up their minds yet are fertile soil (or pockets). ;)

Edit: Now of course, this is going by the title of this post which assumes that there will still be 3rd party Exclusives out there in the years to come. It may come to a point where 3rd parties cater to everyone, we'll have to see how the next generation of consoles compare to each other. If they have similar specs... 3rd Party Exclusives may go the way of the Dino.