The last gen of consoles - here's why...

So going back a little bit we have this video:

http://www.cnet.com/videos/ps4-and-xbox-one-the-last-games-consoles-ever/#!

In it they discuss the possibility of this being the last gen of consoles as we know it. The argument goes something like this: The hardware is the least profitable part of consoles. It can and does cost the manufacturers billions of dollars to produce and if something is to go wrong (360 I'm looking at you) it can cost you billions more. Given that software is more profitable all round why wouldn't they want to ditch the various out-dated boxes and move to a subs based streaming type service? Well the answer is internet speed and availability.

This is the final but major hurdle to overcome before games streaming services take over. It happened to film, it happened to music and it will, eventually, happen to games. Oh but what a hurdle it is, getting everyone on high speed fiber broadband has proved difficult - infrastructure costs are enormous and the adoption rate is slow because of this. So what's new to change this? Read on:

http://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2013/02/eu-follows-uk-to-develop-future-5g-mobile-broadband-for-2020.html

http://theinstitute.ieee.org/opinions/question/the-future-of-wireless-internet782

http://www.pcworld.com/article/2067283/meet-wisp-the-wireless-future-of-internet-service.html

So, by 2020 - around the end of this console generation - we are likely to have 5G Wireless internet capable of delivering peak service speeds of up to 10Gbps or possibly even 100Gbps (Gigabits per second).

With WISP's at the forefront of this technology there is no need to roll out expensive cable infrastructure, no need to dig up the roads or connect up the cabinets and exchanges. The huge uptake for this is already seen in countries that are so large laying cables was never feasible in the first place (or who's economies don't support that level of public funded investment).

Once the final barrier, internet speed and availability, is removed by use of these (and other) new technologies and the requirement for ever higher amounts of processing power (VR and AR) means that boxes under the TV will be a thing of the past. What say you?

no

well the nx is coming out so that makes this theory wrong...

Why? Just...Why?

What I like about this post is its concise nature. You really get to the nub of the issue without too much flowery language etc. I mean yeah, it makes you look a bit dull but why would you care? 1 more to the post count amirite?

...because technology, profitability and capitalism.

And alienasation , hard access , and making gaming a 1%.

The world is more then your mom and dad with 10k monthly paychecks.

Don't people say this crap every generation ?

Well, listening to other people trying to predict future trends and technologies is never something i like to count on because it's usually off the ballpark, but personally, i've always had my own assumptions.

I can see the Playstation 5, but whatever the hell Nintendo is doing with the NX is not going to be traditional. Not in the slightest. As for Microsoft, i really can't see them doing an Xbox One 2.0, maybe they'll try reinforcing their pre-release ideas with better marketing and a new edge to their hardware, like say Virtual Reality.

As for the future after that, it's a bit cloudy. Streaming based subscription services seem like a reasonable road to take in 2030 - 2035 after the 9th (?) generation of consoles.

Both ps4 and xbox one are selling better than ps3 and xbox 360 in the same time.They are making money.I dont think that they will give up consoles.There will be a ps5 and a next xbox.

"So, by 2020 - around the end of this console generation - we are likely to have 5G Wireless internet capable of delivering peak service speeds of up to 10Gbps or possibly even 100Gbps(Gigabits per second)."

Back To The Future thinking ? we still can´t power our vehicles with trash, there are no mag-lev skateboards, no self tying shoes.

So NO, it´s not time for consoles to be a part of the past.

Doubtful. There will always be a significant market of people who lack fast internet connections. Even when that's no longer true in the developed world (which is a long way from happening), there will still be gaming markets in the developing world that need offline hardware.

Also, while hardware may be the least profitable part of consoles, it has been steadily growing in profitability. Whereas the PS3 and 360 launched as massive loss leaders, the PS4 in particular was designed to be sold at cost or better from the start. The PS4 was "already contributing profit on a hardware unit basis" as of May 2014 - only half a year after launch. [link] Sony is, of course, simultaneously pursuing a game streaming strategy, but it is complimentary and not designed to be a replacement. The days of consoles being sold for a massive loss are already over, replaced with a more sustainable launch model which will help ensure their future viability.

The ownership issue remains a major problem with digital streaming, especially after the failure of Onlive. While many people rent movies or watch them on demand, many others still purchase movies - digitally, on Bluray, on DVD, however suits them. Subscription models are used for game streaming precisely because content providers can't guarantee a game's perpetual existence on their servers. And unlike digital purchases for movies, streamed games can't be downloaded and played off hard-drives if the local hardware isn't powerful enough to run it. Hence the need for consoles.

Consoles are more popular than ever. Get over it, Christ.

Ok after reading you post I agree with some of your points here is where you get a no. First this won't be the last one because streaming games, video, and music all on one internet pipe currently just isn't possible. We could try but the infrastructure just isn't ready or even there. 5 GB wireless internet is about a good 3 years off. It's coming just not that soon. Second for while streaming games and digital downloads are picking up the pace there is always that vocal group of people who will resist. So people like me like the idea but others will scream, holler, and cry like William Wallace before they move over. Granted like the PC crowd they will get with the program eventually but they will be every slow to adapt. The point is this won't be the last console generation but it may be the second to last one.

@raugutcon: about those skateboards...

This won't be the last, but eventually streaming through smart t.v.'s will the norm.

I am totally up for a more cost efficient and radically different delivery method of our games so long as their isn't an interruption of performance quality...

I'm also perfectly fine with the end of physical media... I look in my closet of hundreds of games and think... Wtf am I going to do with all this?

Video games are just not comparable to two generations ago where a game disk was coveted... I can download almost every single game I'd ever want to play throughout gaming on modern consoles... They've created a well saturated market and I have no gripes...

XD I just disagree with the notion altogether

To assume streaming will take over and destroy consoles is really an absurd idea altogether. As formats for games change so does technology to keep up with the power needed for upcoming games. Using an example for video quality, tvs have charged to accompany higher quality videos, you need hardware to be able to play the software. Now there can be a streaming service with consoles, but to say that it will make it so there are no more consoles "makes you look a bit dull but why would you care? 1 more to the post count amirite?". Now lets assume we make one console to stream all of these games, who makes it? Why didnt everyone just make one console and make games only for that console, why is there ps4 and xbone? There is really little merit to this

Well NX was announced and coming out so that signifies gen 9 consoles are coming,

isn't some latency based on the limits of electricity and light travel? AFAIK you can't get around that regardless.. unless there are more and more servers around the globe or area with game consumers as focus.

I believe Cloud gaming has will stay and has a future but not yet nor for all kinds of games. Perhaps when we have dedicated gaming servers with heavy GPU for each apartment in something like LA.. maybe there'd no longer be use for traditional home consoles. I doubt that would happen within 10 years tho.

For handheld consoles.. aren't Sony/Nintendo profiting from current 3DS and VITA with their very old internals but priced more expensive than a 2015 Moto G. For home consoles maybe the profit from hardware isn't there during the first few years but perhaps later on there are some to be made? IDK.

PS4 is the most successful Playstation ever.

Xbone is selling relatively well.

Yet OP believes this is the last gen of consoles because WiiU is a total flop.

@1080pOnly:

I think the internet or the network of my town is not ready for cloud gaming. But it's something that interest me. Especially for security reason lately.

For the cost of the whole thing, it appear to me that it could be efficient. I mean putting more rams in the huge server sound more economic than remaking the whole console.

No, there will continue to be consoles.

Unfortunately.

Consoles? For Japan maybe, for the west...hell no.

I have to say my thread title is somewhat disingenuous click bait but this is SW after all.

I don't really think this will be the last gen, this new tech won't hit the streets until 2020 and then there has to be adoption etc etc. The point of the thread still stands though, once cheap wireless technology gives global coverage and speeds increase quicker than we can consume data, why have local rendering at all? It won't be 2020 but it might be 2025 or 2030, not all that far away. To those that think it won't happen or that 'ownership' is the issue just look at the growth of digital downloads...'cause I remember having the same argument 10 years ago with people saying it won't go that way, yet here we are with almost complete DD on PC and the consoles following along behind at a pace.

u've never used wireless internet much have you? its already bogged down to almost unusable speeds, if they gave up on fibre optic and cable networks, the wireless networks would just not function. There aren't enough wireless frequency's of proper bandwidth to support everyone using wireless. 2.4ghz is massively over used since its a frequency anyone can use, and the 3,4,5g networks all use their own licensed frequencys in the high 1000's to low 2000's mhz bandwidth which are also bogged down badly even at this point in time with the huge amount of different wireless providers. Internet barely is usable at peak usage times.

Having used wireless internet since 2003, its still as unrealiable now as it was back then. Fibre optic network for internet is the only way to have a secure and fast internet in the present and future. Far too many things interfer with wireless signals, humidity, weather like rain and snow, trees, buildings and other microwave signals, its not a good option and is only used as a last resort until fibre optic coverage improves.

If it bothers you to know consoles exist....stay away from gaming sites.

Lol @ people who knock on this prediction. Yea it may not happen by the time specified but

Look at Music, Look at Movies, TV shows.........

Convenience always trumps all else. Even quality.

Oh and dont forget digitial distribution of games/software

The South Koreans & Germany have had this in development for a while. They invested something like $7 billion in it. Considering the US is years behind the EU and Asia as far as supplying broadband and the fact that a good chunk of the US still is using dial up, I dont really see this catching on by 2020 at all in the US. Will it happen eventually? Sure. In the next 10 years? Not a chance.

There are talks between all the major internet providers and lots of big municipalities to create a 'free internet' service thats basically paid for like a utility. I've actually been involved in some of these myself. So help for people with crap internet is probably coming, but 10GB fiber for everyone isnt going to happen. Most of the major service providers are using old infrastructure that took decades to build and are already pulling magic tricks like using switched digital video to free up spectrum to get the internet to higher speeds as is. Even a company like Google with the resources to actually build a modern fiber infrastructure arent going to just be able to implement something like this on a national scale in less than 10 years. Sure they can lay fiber in towns like Austin and Kansas City, but rewiring a huge city like Los Angeles or NYC is a whole different beast.

Doesnt really matter how great your wifi is, wireless is still a subpar means to play games. Wifi picks up interference from all types of devices and being a frequency theres lots of congestion already. The government regulates the use of the airwaves and a lot of it is reserved and cant be used. The military, air traffic control, emergency services etc have reserved spectrum that isnt going to ever get used for other things. Not to mention there will be huge pushback to it in the US from tinfoil hat people afraid of catching some sort of sickness from waves flying around. Sounds stupid but trust me people already gripe about cell phones causing cancer.

Its very possible this might be the last console gen, but it wont be because of wifi. It'll be because consoles will just become PCs.

edit: oh yeah...about the hoverboards:

Small victory I guess lol

It seems so hard for people to grasp this. Gaming is mainstream now, consoles aren't going anywhere.

Doom and gloom stories get clicks. You guys are just falling for the bait.

No, there's a lot more hurdles than just internet speeds. I think we are at least 2 console generations away from going all digital/streaming.

1) Hard drive space. If you want to download the game vs stream it, we are seeing this gen how much of a space hog these games are. 500GB sounds great until you realize Call of Duty and all its DLC will take 60GB or more of that.

2) Used games are still thriving. Unlike Music and movies, there's a thriving used game market in video games that is also subsidizing new games and consoles. People are trading in old games so they can afford new ones. The ones they don't want day one, they are getting used later on at much cheaper prices.

3) Pricing needs to be much better. PSN and XB Live pricing is terrible. They need to adapt a price model closer to what Steam does, with quarterly big sales like Steam.

1. yes and they are proven wrong
2. pricing isnt terrible if you cant afford $50 a year something clearly wrong with your priorities.
3. consoles here to stay because gamers develop an attachment to tangible products.

Similar to music industry, 3 explains why despite the digitization of the industry, most people prefer to purchase CDs instead of d/l from itunes

Well they're not exactly popular if I go by comments on the internet that I see. I'd say that's up for debate. They sold a lot though.

Sony has a Kicstarter for their PS5 research. By all means pitch in. All you are doing is help them pay this months electric bill.

Consoles are doing just fine and as long as they sell Sony/Microsoft will continue to release new hardware. The PS4 is selling great and even the XB1 is selling better than the 360 was at the same point in time.

Streaming will not become the new standard in which we play games for many years. Anyways, it would still just be as convenient to just download the games to your computer as internet speeds will only get better. Why stream and worry about lag?

If VR takes off, were are literally rewinding the clock to discovering 3D/Polygonal graphics again in terms of hardware needs and software innovation.

Good. There's no reason why consoles should exist. They're a drain on consumer and producers.

NX is coming and current internet situations prevent this from being a reality, next generation will happen and that's clear and even if it's niche generations after will probably happen as well.

Yeah pretty much... but the fact is that people still want consoles. Look at how well both PS4 & Xbone are selling compared to the same time last gen.

And gamers don't like change. Look at the crap MS got into over their Xbone policies. Can't see consoles going anywhere for a while yet.

I think this is the last gen of consoles as well.

1. Content is able to be played across more devices in more locations

2. VR is no longer a future tech

3. Consoles can not keep up with the pace of tech with their static hardware

4. IMO it's only a matter of time before the price of digital content make the disc based media unattractive.

5. The rapid increase in hard drive space and internet connections makes digital content easier to access in the comfort of your home.

The hand writing IMO is on the wall. It's a simple matter of time before a steam box reaches a mass price point with better performance. My hdtv can play ps3 games at 4k in 2015 already. The ps5 won't be out till 2020 I would say and the market will be changed. Today you can by cell phones with more power than a xbox 360.

As long as there is demand for consoles they will exist regardless of streaming services.

Also wont the latency on mobile networks be completely unsuitable for streaming services, so that's a bit of a flaw in logic. The connection speed can be as fast at it likes, but if the latency is shit what's the point, Wifi is bad enough.