Takeaway from FFVII Rebirth's underperformance

@mesome713: Even if that's true, Rebirth became the year's fourth best-selling game based on its first 3 days alone. The number-one game Helldivers 2 sold 8M worldwide, yet Rebirth's US sales in 3 days almost matched Helldiver's first month in the US. Rebirth's US sales in 3 days could be anywhere between 1-3M.

@Jag85: Helldriver has insane legs though. By Feb 12th it sold 1 million. In the month of February it managed to sell 2-3 million copies worldwide from Official Release numbers from the Owner. Now it has sold 8 million. If FF Rebirth couldn't overtake such small numbers for Feb, then wholy cow did it sell extremely poorly. And FF hasn't sold through its stock ANYWHERE, which is unheard-of for such a big game. We have never seen a FF game release so poorly.

@mesome713: Helldivers sold 3M worldwide by 24 February. By 2 March, it must've sold around 5M worldwide. Assuming half of that was from the US, that would put Rebirth's first 3 days at somewhere between 1-3M in the US. Again, Rebirth performed strongly in the US, even if it under-performed in Japan.

Yep, and as we all know, you famously support the idea that games are a success when they chart in the top 10 at launch.. 🙄

@Jag85: I think selling 1-2 million in the US is a joke for a game this big. Nintendo on its worst day can shit out 1-2 million.

@mesome713: This topic has nothing to do with Nintendo. You don't need to keep name-dropping them in every thread.

Yet that is still middling. It is selling below expectations and the hype for it.

Contrast this with Unicorn Overlord, which sold out its physical copies in most of the world, blasting expectations.

@texasgoldrush: Like I said, Rebirth under-performed in Japan but started off strong in the US.

Unicorn Overlord surpassed expectations, but it's not selling close to Rebirth numbers, so don't see the point of the comparison.

It may actually could be beating Rebirth in Japan. The physical copies sold out.

And Rebirth isn't that strong in the US, its middling for a game with that hype, and this month games like Peach and DD2 is going to beat it.

This is why you don't carry a conversation with Texas, he literally makes up BS as he goes.

Rebirth sold more copies in Japan, but most of those sales came in the opening week whereas Overlord has been selling more consistently.

According to Circana, Rebirth had strong launch sales in the US. It's already the fourth best-selling game of the year after just three days on sale.

It's also doing well in Europe, where it had a stronger launch than FF16, though slightly down from VII Remake.

Is this thread entirely conjecture? On top of that, Texas actually used anecdotal evidence of a Gamestop employee he spoke with.

The original Remake sold 3.5 million units within 3 days on an install base of 110+ million units. The PS5 install base is a little less than half of that. So there’s really nothing to indicate at this point that it underperformed. It was the second best selling game in February with being 1 day on the market. Also, we already know that sales have been shifting towards digital over the last 5 years, so counting boxed copies only isn’t really indicative either. I think this game will have legs, especially with the reviews and word of mouth.

Overlord literally ran out of copies to sell, which means that digital sales could be higher than normal.

Being in the top doesn't mean you performed well, nevermind that once again , pre orders are a thing.

There is a reason why Square Enix has yet to trumpet out numbers.

Except Remake's legs weren't great.

Rebirth sold five times more physical copies than Overlord in Japan. It's unlikely Overlord sold more digital copies there.

Again, Rebirth is America's fourth best-selling game of 2024 so far based solely on launch sales. That's an impressive start no matter how you spin it.

Square Enix hasn't given out numbers because Rebirth's worldwide sales are likely less than Remake at launch. That's mainly because it sold worse in Japan. But in the West, its sales are closer to FF7 Remake numbers.

@dabear: that isn't true at all. Remakes are killing it lately.

And you famously dismiss when flagship titles quickly fall out of the top 20, while somehow claiming subscription services increase sales. 🙄🙄🙄

@Jag85: If its sales are good then why hasn't Square provided a sales update in nearly a month after release?

The first remake sold 3.5 million copies in 3 days, and we know this because Square was posting it here, there and everywhere, but not a peep out of them yet and the games nearly been out a month. Safe to say at this point the game has sold poorly or at the very least not reached its sales target.

i readily acknowledge that a game launching in the top 10 is a clear sign of retail success.. something you clearly agree with..

well, you agree with that logic when it's not an Xbox game.. 🙄

I think FF7R performed great, slightly lower launch sales but its to be expected from lower install base. Hope it sells more lifetime though so that Square would remake more FF with same budget.

FF7 Remake sales potential crippled by its early entry into PS+ and epic store timed exclusivity.

See my post above:

They haven't put out a statement because its launch was likely less than Remake's 3.5M worldwide sales. Rebirth likely sold close to 3M worldwide in 3 days, which would be a success but not great PR if it can't match its predecessor.

@Jag85: Where are you getting your numbers from? As nothing official has been announced.

@last_lap: It's a rough estimate, mainly based on how well it performed relative to Helldivers 2. According to Circana, Rebirth's launch sales almost matched the first-month sales of Helldivers 2 in the US. Helldivers 2 sold 8M worldwide in just over a month. This would indicate Rebirth launched with several million sales worldwide.

The argument "it's the middle part" doesn't hold water.

In almost all forms of a media the sequel part sells more.

So just speculation then. No point in continuing this conversation any further.

You cannot use charts without numbers to estimate sales. Plenty of middling and even bombs can top charts in its first month or week.

Once again, why hasn't SquareEnix trumpeted sales numbers for Rebirth? Its because of underperformance.

It's sample maths:

• Helldivers sold 8M worldwide in its first month.
• According to Circana, Rebirth's US launch came close to Helldiver's first-month US sales.
• So Rebirth likely launched with several million sales worldwide.

However, it likely fell short of Remake's worldwide launch, so Square Enix won't make an announcement to avoid negative PR. And the main reason it fell short is because of Japan, where it sold a fraction of what Remake sold. It's performing well in the US and Europe, but not Japan.

@Jag85: Math uses numbers. You are speculating, not using math. According to you, FFVII Rebirth sold close to 8 million which makes it unpar or slightly above Remake. We don't know because no data on the units sold has been not disclosed by SquareEnix as promptly as they did with Remake, in which they made an official announcement 11 days post launch. We are 25 days post launch and not a word.

@Pedro:

It's called statistics and probability. And you clearly didn't read what I said:

Helldivers sold 8M worldwide in its first month.

According to Circana, Rebirth's US launch came close to Helldiver's first-month US sales.

Worldwide =/= US

Out of Helldiver's 8M worldwide sales, a large portion of that came from the US. A reasonable ball park estimate for Helldiver's US sales would be around 3M, which by extension would put Rebirth's launch at around the same ball park.

All in all, Rebirth's worldwide launch sales were probably slightly less than Remake's 3.5M launch. Square Enix would only make an announcement if Rebirth outsold Remake, not if it fell short of Remake sales.

I read what you stated and I reviewed SquareEnix statement when Remake was released and the worldwide numbers of Remake for the release month prior to responding. Now, the fact is you don't have facts behind your claim and you are speculating without any meaningful data that in which you can rely on math. 🤷🏽‍♂️

@Pedro: We have meaningful data for Helldivers, from which we can use mathematics to derive a statistical probability for Rebirth. Mathematics 101.

But this cannot really be done in this situation.

Being 4th most sold two months in with the hype it has is not that great.

No! Statistical probability is not mathematics 101. You are trying really hard to make your non-factual and baseless claim, factual and having substance. Emotions is getting the best of you.

@texasgoldrush: More like third, since Rebirth is split into two entries (the Remake+Rebirth combo is separated). And that's with just its first three days of sales. It's performing just fine in the US, as well as Europe to an extent. It's Japan that's worrying.

@Pedro:

Looks like someone didn't study maths at school...

Probability

Just because it's triggering your emotions, that doesn't change the fact that probability is maths.

Seems like you are confusing me pointing out that you don't have enough data to draw your unfounded conclusion to me not understanding existences probability🤭. I am not the one twisting reality. Reality twisters do what you are doing when they are emotionally compromised.🤷🏽‍♂️

@Pedro: In other words, you don't understand maths and don't know what "estimate" or "probability" mean, so you're just waffling now. As a mathematician, I know very well what mathematics is. You clearly don't.

Japan is now the kingdom of handheld and mobile gacha games, no surprise there.Even the most popular titles on PS5 in Japan are Genshin Impact and Apex Legends

@Jag85: One doesn't need to be a mathematician to know you don't have data to back your claim thus the use of baseless speculation under the guise of probability (got to be the funniest damage control I have seen on the forum). It is amazing how much mental gymnastics you have participated in just because you can't handle the fact that the game didn't do as well as it's predecessor.🤷‍♂️

Pedro hurting hard 🤣

lol :P

The cosigner appears when his fellow colleague is struggling.😂

@Jag85: He's a dude on a forum, he obviously knows more. Just.let it go.

@Pedro: Bro you don't understand math. Jag is a pro. Because Helldrivers sold 2-3million worldwide in Feb, and later went on to have amazing legs and sell 8 million worldwide, and FFVI Rebirth sold less than it in US for Feb, that means FF sold Less than Helldrivers. So it sold 6-7 million. This just how math works.

The following is speculation. (the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence)

It's sample maths:

• Helldivers sold 8M worldwide in its first month.
• According to Circana, Rebirth's US launch came close to Helldiver's first-month US sales.
• So Rebirth likely launched with several million sales worldwide.

However, it likely fell short of Remake's worldwide launch, so Square Enix won't make an announcement to avoid negative PR. And the main reason it fell short is because of Japan, where it sold a fraction of what Remake sold. It's performing well in the US and Europe, but not Japan.

There is no math being presented.

What’s next, Pedro thinks the PS5 has the same base as PS4 in 2020? 😆#rekt

@Pedro: Just admit you don't know what mathematics, statistics, probability or estimates mean. And you're confusing maths with physics for some reason. You're clearly very ignorant about mathematics.

It's obvious you're just trolling now, so I won't bother replying to your troll bait any further.