Lets Discuss Next Gen Launch Strategies

So we've seen Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo completely blow launches these last two generations. With the little information we know coming from Playstation and Xbox regarding next gen, what do you all think will be the best strategy for these two to be successful next generation. Here is my take.

1 - Like this current generation, Playstation needs to let Xbox show their hand first. There is no reason for Playstation to tip their hand because they are still outselling the competition, even with a power disadvantage. Sony has nothing to gain and everything to lose with a botched reveal. It would benefit them most to let Xbox reveal their console(s) and then nail down the details like RAM, HDD's and price after. If Playstation were to go first, it would be an insane mistake. But looking at how Playstation has been flip-flopping on things like cross-platform play and streaming to other devices, it looks as if they are uncomfortable, even in the drivers seat. I don't get it...

2 - If the multiple console rumors are true, Xbox needs to stagger their launches. Launch the streaming Xbox first, build the library with the promise of the ability to stream past and future gen games, and build the revenue stream through software sales. Launching the inexpensive streaming box first would be genius. At the start of every generation, console makers sell their hardware at cost or at a small loss. With a streaming box that cost less than $100 to produce, Microsoft can build a strong software library and then launch the powerful console without the game drought. Then Xbox will have the install base that can support the financial hit a console that costs around $400 to produce. I'm talking 12-18 months of a window here. Launch the streaming box and reveal the powerful console with the promise the streaming box can support any software that is released. Put the Xbox streaming software on TV's, PC's and streaming products and the software will reach more homes than they ever could before. Then, Xbox could eat up even more 3rd party studios with the promise of more sales to a wider audience. It seems as if Xbox is a couple of years ahead of Playstation here with the streaming services. Lets see if they can capitalize.

3 - That brings me to my final point. People seem to miss the point of offering streaming services. It's less about being convenient for consumers and more about getting rid of the need to produce expensive hardware. It also grows the install base to anyone with a TV or phone. Xbox and Playstation make the majority of their money on software sales and accessories. If they can successfully get rid of these expensive boxes, the sky is the limit for their success. But don't get it twisted, they aren't going after streaming for any reason other than to shrink costs and maximize the user-base. Aka the revenue stream


So what is your recipe for success???

Episodic gaming seems more suited to streaming, keep people stringed along on a product on a subscription, re-using assets. I think that will become more of a norm as console gaming shifts towards streaming. But not necessarily at launch itself.

Can see games already grindy as it is, getting a shit-load grindyer as well.

i wonder if someone is going to apply the phone business model. sell the console for way below cost but attach a 2+ year contract for live/PSN. it gives them a lot more flexibility.

console game development is a lot more like PC development now. Games are going to be designed to scale more: even first party titles i think. they are also going to be even more hardware agnostic than they have been this gen.

so they could give choices.

1) just outright buy the console. this could range from a basic console with no disc drive to a $1000 BOM beast. yes consoles in the 600+ range have had it rough in the past but its only there as a choice and the manufacturer would prefer you go with option 2 anyway so....meh. but the choice is there.

2) choose a range of contracts which includes a console at certain price points. so the most basic may just be streaming with online play included on a 30 day rolling and will play on any device. the other end could be 60 quid a month in a 4 year contract that includes that 1000 BOM beastly console (or maybe 3 years and you pay 250 for the console up front...you get the idea), online play, some games included every month and some other services added on. 100 quid a month for super duper premium and basically you never need to worry about buying a game again.

the second method does give the manufacturer more scope to take an initial loss on the hardware (or increase the BOM of the console significantly) as they are basically guaranteed to make the money back and then some. if one takes this approach and the other doesnt (and designs the console on a tighter budget as a result) it could leave them in a spot of bother.

If games all went streaming, i'm out.

Your option one is not practical because Sony is would have already finalized plans for their system by that time. Sony benefited from Xbox One initial reveal because they adjusted their strategy based on the negative feedback.

I am interested in seeing how MS financing for their systems are going to play out if it becomes an option at launch.

Streaming viability has to be proven first anyone of the three to place heavy hitters on the service. I want to see what MS is offering with Xcloud before I guess the longterm outcom.

Next iteration is going to be just that. Better performing hardware but nothing to lose your mind over. I do expect fake games as the standard for most game reveals for these system reveal.

PS4 had a great launch with plenty of great games. The only problem it had was that for the first two years, multiplats were multigenerational as well.

I think if PS5 launched with the same ideas PS4 had with backwards compatibility with PS4 and PSVR, and shorten the multigenerational time frame that PS5 will be successful.

PS5 already won next gen.

There is nothing Xbox can do at this point to ever win. They will always be in 2nd or 3rd place.

I personally hope that Sony reveals first. MS has already been playing catchup. They should take another move from them and reveal after sony has in order to get the advantage. Imagine if the rumours were true and sony was planning on doing DRM similar to MS in 2013 but backed away after seeing MS get crucified when they revealed first.

Also, releasing a streaming console first while sony would be releasing a legitimate ps4 successor would be a bad idea.

@ajstyles: We've gotta go back, Marty!

Plenty of people with knowledge of the PS4 and the devkits prelaunch discussed that the PS4 had 4GB GDDR5 RAM pretty late in development. Also, it was widely rumored that the PS Camera was originally bundled with the console, but after the Xbox One price was revealed, Playstation pulled the camera to undercut the Xbox One price. There are PLENTY of details that can be worked out pretty damn late in the development cycle. Xbox tipping their hand 9-12 months before launch offers Playstation plenty of opportunities just like it did this generation.

Microsoft current market disruption is causing Sony to flip flop. I cant see Sony do a xboxone x idea of wait for a more powerful console. They never really liked the idea of going last. There plans are already in motion they just have to answer MS disruption. They have been sitting on all these future markets but now a competitor is really draging them out.

For me Microsoft keep doing what you have set up. Go after everything streaming and fixed hardware. Provide everything as options for everyone. Keep disrupting the market with consumer friendly services. At some point you have to unify the services though. Go for the power console you need it more. The best way to guarantee most powerful console is to have more then one sku or release a console after your competitor. They are not many things you can compete on. I feel like loosing the power advantage hurts them more then there competitors.

For Sony don't forget japan. In one of giantbomb sit down Phill said something very true. Sometimes Japanese publishers make the most money on Asia markets then western therefore they feel console like xbox is not even worth it. Unfortunately this is slowly happening to playstation as well. This used to be proxy advantage to playstation and very important to there Japanese publishers relationship. These games Nier, Persona, Bloodborne and many other matter even if they don't sell like COD let alone first party exclusives. They have a set budget and most important there made by prolific critically raved dev studios. They have a sit in a big tent install base. Finding there home on pc and lately on the switch but pc you can coexist with. Which brings me to switch. Sony needs a portable even though vita failed. They should not create a stand alone portable that biz is disappearing. They should have a portable as part of the ps5 eco system. Its tough to know even if its possible in amd technology compatibility. It will be beneficial to them if ps5 games can be played on handhelds. Since they are still a closed off company they need to make the hardware.

That is an understatement. MS will automatically lose next gen if they lose the power advantage again.

@ellos: “Microsoft current market disruption is causing Sony to flip flop.”

What market disruption? The Xbox has been 3rd - 4th every month in the U.S. since they’ve been playing nice guy. They’ve made up no ground anywhere else in the world either. They’ve disrupted nothing

Google is making their own system. It's a streaming system. So, their going hot into the competition.

They have been more competitive then in the past. Sony has to think about things MS is embracing right now. Some of the things are not new but sony has to think about them even now. BC, Crossplay, Early access program for example. PSnow is bigger then gamepass but watch Sony incorporate things that game pass does. Sony's position has allowed them to ignore or flip flop on these but next gen could be different story. Loosing does not stop you from being disruptive. They have put out features that consumer will be looking for the next consoles.

My strategy will be to see games, track what I’m interested in playing and pay no mind to review scores as usual and play what I’m interested in unless it is known to be broken. Same as how I approach what I read, movies I watch and music I listen to.

Sony would not have been able to make the changes to the PS4 RAM after the reveal of the Xbox One. They simply would not have enough time. The camera inclusion is another element that can be easily removed from the SKU. The point I was making is that the hardware for both systems would already be set upon the reveal of either company.

@Pedro: Uh, no. Remember the PS4 Pro reveal? Cerny described two options they were still weighing with the CPU. That’s even more important than the RAM. A reveal doesn’t need to describe exact hardware specs. Hell, the Project Scorpio reveal only told us 6TFLOPS and the processor said “4K” on it. Things can change a ton in 12-18 months.

Honestly I don't know.

There are some streaming things in the works that might totally upset the balance. Google, for example. Why own a 400 dollar console and buy 60 dollar games when you can get a 100 dollar little fob (prices totally speculative) that plugs into the back of your TV, and play any game you want for, idunno, 15 bucks a month. A lot of these companies (Google, Amazon, etc) might even be willing to get exclusive rights to games, which would further topple other platforms.

No slight against SONY, but would the PS4 be even remotely as popular as it is without God of War, Spiderman, and literally a handful of other exclusives? Their foundation is built on eggshells, if you ask me.

Lol, wtf. First off, do you think it's that quick and easy for manufacturers to switch the production of a system? That takes months, years.

Second, notice how since the Snes the most powerful system doesn't mean it will be the best selling? PS1, PS2, Wii, PS4. Power is irrelevant. Games are what counts.

Yes, especially buying a hardware, a joystick or two, online sub, streaming sub, other accessories. They even might hike the price for video games. When the 4th generation released they jacked up the price up to $10 dollars(full $60). They might do it again, maybe up to the full price of $70 or $80 dollars.

Sony and Ms will make

A device that plays physical games (along with downloads and services etc...)

A device with no disc drive and all the services.

Big focus on streaming services. Video games Netflix has arrived.

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Nintendo maintains the handheld console hybrid and gets more and more third party support.

Switch is last to get a true next gen upgrade because...

A. They're still relatively new/midlife to the generation with big games still in development, possibly even another Zelda on switch.

B. They have the unique device. Gaming on switch is better than mobile gaming and fits nicely in a game enthusiasts life. Ms and Sony only offer couch gameplay. Just the same way I believe Sony could still be marketing the vita because it's a capable portable device, Nintendo will actually capitalize on it.

I think that platform makers should resist the urge to see gaming as something democratized and service based. The trend among movie and shows on streaming service is that the end-result has been a rise in piracy. The temptation to target and pidgeonhole a gaming consumer as having some specific traits will ultimately create a vacuum that will be filled either by legitimate means or illegitimate. My ideal model for a healthy gaming business is one that can bake its cake and eat it too. I see PlayStation as the strongest contender simply because it has navigated those next-gen waters with commercial success balancing it's PSNow, PSVue, and retail business model profitably and, even more importantly, quietly.

If you want to find the position of strength in a negotiation, look for the person or entity that can act impartially. They won't have a mantra, because money doesn't have an ideology. This is proven with the Steam and PC gaming model very thoroughly. Advances in the Japanese gaming market make that abundantly clear. Sony has, behind the scenes, facilitated a platform agnostic approach without putting it front and center because they don't have anything to gain from sharing their brand power. This is something effectively managed. Xbox approach, in contrast, is so on the nose that they have effectively created a redundant brand for the sake of their PC business. It's unwise, and if they continue to make mis-steps with the Xbox business, it will erode the Xbox brand value to a point where it can only be considered niche.

All of that being said, I would wager that most people missed Nintendo's "Blue Water" approach with the Switch. They segued their healthy handheld business into the console market and took everyone to school when it comes to disrupting an industry growing despite all analyst predictions. Nintendo, to make a very long story short, needs to stay on their current trajectory and join the service model when the smoke clears between Sony and Xbox throwing haymakers at each other. They can totally afford to eat another WiiU misstep, but my guess is that they won't and the timing of the Switch launch was more strategic than the other Big Three heavyweights will ever see coming. My money is on the next Nintendo platform sticking with NVidia and having some newfangled SLI tech between the handheld console and the home console dock.

@needhealing:

1 - The PS4 launch lineup was shit. But EVERYBODY knew it was the more powerful system. Sony wouldn’t let us forget it.

2 - This isn’t the 16/32 bit era. I gave examples as recent as the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X in this thread where last minute hardware changes were made. By last minute I mean details were nailed down within 12 months of the consoles launch. PS4 Pro’s CPU was finalized in the same calander year as the launch. As close as 7 months from launch in fact.

Edit: PS4 Pro production didn’t start until around September of 2016. The console launched in November...

If MS were to release a streaming Xbox first that will kill them off in the gaming arena.

They need to release both consoles at the same time, and I for one will never buy a streaming box.

When/if gaming goes all streaming then I will just stick to this gen and work my way backwards.

Sony will be extending their streaming to more than just PCs again. PS5 will be a normal console and they will continue their great games. Only time will tell if they will move to putting those 1st party games day and date on their streaming service. I think Google and Amazon's streaming options will need to be seen to find out what PS will do.

Xbox will have a standard edition and a high end version. I believe the high end will be above $500 because I think MS would like to be sure they have the most powerful console option again. With their new bolstered first party Xbox will be putting out games at a more regular clip. MS makes money on them whether on PC or console and that's pretty much the priority. Consistent revenue growth.

Nintendo will be Nintendo, doing their own thing. They have a unique console again like the Wii and they will be supported and loved. Their "next gen" is on a different time table from Sony and MS it seems.

It should be pretty simple. Traditional Console/s, Streaming device and a Streaming service. Microsoft is following this path, we don't know if Sony will however. However I think Sony needs to diversify and stop this single player game only mindset, that market doesn't work with GaaS/Streaming services. Single player games don't keep people attached to the service. Everybody in the movie, TV and the game industry has realised this.

The Netflix business model and Cloud market is coming full force into the gaming industry. So it's highly likely that next generation will see the end of console exclusives.

@goldenelementxl:

Na according to some site MS is poised to dominate next gen so who cares is all over before it begin.

I don't get where this talk of ms dominating is coming from. They haven't ever won a generation and Sony has double the fanbase. It seems to me that ms are more interested in services than hardware anyway.

ps5 already won

We don't know enough about the coming systems to say one way or the other who is gonna win. It's pretty much a toss up at this point.

Focus on games first. Everything else is small potatoes.

If the service has more players than all hardware sales combined, then that company who has the most users on that service wins the generation.

Sony will need to revert to a more aggressive campaign.

If sony doesn't have an equivalent of play anwhere, an aggressive future form of game passes, weaker baseline, maybe they should go first for at least a full year to keep the momentum strong and maybe keep things cheaper

I think Sony is in for a hurting if MS decides to go full throttle with many AAA mspc/xbox exclusives revealed or launch windowed for the XB2 while having far better out of gaming repertoire. Perhaps this is what they're planning to do with all the recent dev grabs.

I'd like to see if Sony has any cards hidden or maybe they'll just keep investing in their popular first party and hope the momentum is still with there even with all other else besides exclusives are not as good. A breakthrough controller maybe? Strong VR integration but still very affordable? We'll see.

If they show trailers of GoW 2, Spiderman 2, "Uncharted 5", HZD 2 within its first year, plus a cheaper console maybe Sony will keep the momentum strong.

Terrible idea. Many gamers hate the idea of only being able to stream games and Microsoft would receive so much backlash if they did this. It would be even worse than the backlash that they received when they tried to make it so that the Xbox One had to always check-in online which is what pretty much killed them this generation even after they reversed that decision since the damage was already done.

If Sony has a traditional PS5 on the market while Microsoft only has a streaming box, Microsoft would never be able to recover from that. Even after they released their traditional Xbox, it would be too late, too much of their customer-base would already be pissed and probably jump ship.

I'm a much bigger fan of Xbox than I am Playstation, but if Microsoft launches a streaming Xbox first and Sony has a traditional PS5 on the market then Xbox would officially be dead to me and I would buy a PS5 instead of the Xbox. And this is about the only thing that would make me choose a PS5 over the next Xbox.

@TheEroica: I honestly believe that Sony is watching Nintendo very closely, due the the success of the Switch. With Nintendo overtaking Japan 100%, Sony will probably find ways to keep their home market alive, even if its to either copy Nintendo, or open a new PlayStation Now App for mobile phones that will work with the DualShock 4 or 5.

@FireEmblem_Man: I mean, for me all they have to do is announce a successor to the vita and I'm in... Its just such a practical way to move around with my games...

I remember playing destiny on the vita via remote play and being like, "wow this has a ton of potential"

See it through Sony!

I think Sony and Microsoft have a lot of exlusives planned for their next gen consoles.

Especially Microsoft, what did they have this year ? Forza... I'm sure every other developer is working on Xbox Next titles.

Sony still has a good few exclusives planned to support PS4: Tsushima, Days Gone, TLOU2. So I'm pretty sure they'll show a bunch of titles, but have less launch exclusives than Xbox Next, but with more coming down the line.

My guess.

I wonder if either one will play the Nintendo Switch card.

A Handheld with the power of a PS4 Pro, but with a dual GPU/CPU architecture that when docked... is PS5 quality.

Can only dream.

It's possible, but Price will be an issue as well as Battery Life