Another Trump term possible?

Who is Allan Lichtman, you ask?

Well, he’s a political historian and an American University professor but more importantly, he’s correctly predicted the last nine presidential elections.

Sadly, Lichtman believes that the winner of the 2020 presidential election will be someone that we are already familiar with: current president Donald J. Trump.

Lichtman uses his system of 13 “key factors” to determine who will be president. According to the Hill, the factors range from “whether the party has an incumbent president running to the country’s short- and long-term economic conditions to foreign policy successes and failures.”

Lichtman says the Trump administration is down three key factors: Republican losses in the midterms elections, a “lack of foreign policy success” and Trump’s “limited appeal to voters,” CNN reported. Impeachment would trigger a fourth key — scandal over the proceeding’s public nature.

“Let’s not forget, impeachment is not just a vote in the House,” Lichtman said. “It involves public hearings as part of the impeachment inquiry, and, what everyone forgets, a public trial in the Senate in which House prosecutors present evidence, present documents, make opening and closing statements.”

If the party loses out on six factors or more, Lichtman says they will lose the presidency.

Lichtman noted that scandal hurt Vice President Al Gore’s chances and ultimately cost him the 2000 presidential election after President Clinton’s impeachment process.

“Democrats are fundamentally wrong about the politics of impeachment and their prospects for victory in 2020,” Lichtman told CNN’s Chris Cillizza on Tuesday.

Well, what do PG think? Is he right or wrong? He predicted the last 9 presidential elections. But he doesn't say if Trump loses who will be the next president.

At first I thought he was wrong but he has a perfect track record and his own complex system for electing a president.

"The 13 keys system"

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

It all depends on the economy. It's the only thing saving Trump now.

The economy has managed to remain steady, despite Trump's best efforts. But it's near the breaking point.

If the economy goes and we enter recession.

Trump's gone.

Yeah, he could absolutely win. Anyone who thinks otherwise is lying to themselves.

Did he predict Trump’s ‘16 win? Because no one was - not even Republicans.

Which isn't going to happen by '20.

But if by some miracle Trump is defeated because we are entering a recession, he will come out and blame the Dem's troubles in attempting to rectify his and his party's own mess in the next term, as typical, but only after taking credit for the profit of the Dem's policies while they were in power, as he's been doing so far. In a way I want Trump to win, so he can't sit there and blame anyone else for the asininity of his own policies and the ramifications they are doing to our economy. Which of course he'll try anyway, only to be lapped up and parroted by his mindless, slobbering cult.

Yep. It's neither in the bag nor a lost cause.

I'm sure most polls had him within the margin of error.

@MirkoS77: oh they will find a way to blame democrats.

They are blaming democrats for all of Trump's failures, even though Republicans had full control for two years.

Of course they are. Remember Mitch McConnells did a full 180 on his own bill since Democrats supported it.

@Nuck81: Trump is restoring the good economy policies Bush put in place and Obama claimed as his own.

@n64dd: damn son. Are you even trying anymore? Pathetic

Everyone needs to see it and fight it to the finish line.

@horgen: Wrong - most polls had Hillary winning by a landslide.

https://youtu.be/zerWCVpXTr8

Do you even know what Margin of Error means?

@Sevenizz: HA GOODMAN called it in 2016 and lost his job for saying it lol he was right though, he was a bernie bro too. His career was destroyed for saying trump would win in 2016.

@Maroxad: polls are for total vote. Not electoral.

Polls were spot on.

He doesn't. Refer to this post. Well the thread gives the context.

Cenk of TYT did in July 2016.

No 4 more years, I wanna see how crazy the left and right can get. It's to entertaining at this point.

@npiet1: agreed its amazing