Can Sony still win this war?

Do you guys think PS3 can come out of last place, take over the 360 and Wii, and end up first by the end of this generation?

We all know it's not exactly a sales success atm. In fact, it's selling poorly in comparison to the 360, and very poorly in comparison to the Wii. It's also been plagued with major game delays, lost exclusives, and still has yet to obtain a major system seller.

Not to mention the price. But do you guys think Sony can still win this war? Or is time for a new leader in the console market?

I personally think with a price drop and games like MGSIV, FFXIII, GT5, and GTAIV, the PS3 will pass the 360 in total sales before the end of 2008. Not too sure about the Wii just yet.

What do you guys think?

Sony CAN win this war, it's still anyman's game. They definately need more sales though. The problem is, even if the monthly sales over take the 360's by 100,000 units, it would still take thrm over 3 years just to catch up to the 360, let alone surpass MS's console. For those who don't know, the PS3's North American Userbase is only 1.7 million according to the NPD's findings (http://www.gamespot.com/news/6178770.html- Paragraph 5, Sentence 3) Compared to the Xbox 360's 6.3 million North American Userbase. Even when you add in numbers from the rest of the world, It's going to be a long, uphill battle for the PS3, so I see Xbox 360 or Wii taking first, the other taking second, and PS3 taking third.

Wii has taken the lead... its not going to lose it. And the fact is, even if the PS3 continues selling after the the new systems come out, this war will be over, the PS3 would have lost already.foxhound_fox

There's one thing I've been thinking about though.

Since the Wii and the PS3 are aiming for different markets, can they really be said to be directly competing against one another?

Seems to me like the 360 and the PS3 are substitutes, whereas the PS3 and Wii (or 360 and Wii) are complements. I don't think many people are choosing between PS3 and Wii. The casual audience that Wii has attracted weren't seriously thinking about getting a PS3 or a 360 in the first place.

On the other hand, I think most hardcore gamers who buy a Wii are interested in a 360 or a PS3 as well. PS3 and 360 are much more closer in functionality and horsepower than the Wii, so most consumers will have to choose between them. But Wii seems to be running its separate race.

Of course, if Wii wins this generation, we must give credit to its success. But from Sony or Microsoft's standpoint, does it really matter? If Wii wasn't really competing directly against their product, and didn't diminish their profitability in any way, I have a feeling that Sony and Microsoft wouldn't be worried about it even if they did lose.

Of course, if Wii wins this generation, we must give credit to its success. But from Sony or Microsoft's standpoint, does it really matter? If Wii wasn't really competing directly against their product, and didn't diminish their profitability in any way, I have a feeling that Sony and Microsoft wouldn't be worried about it even if they did lose.fuzzysquash

How many kids will get a Wii that may have received a PS3 or 360 if the Wii didn't exist?

I would question whether 3rd parties care about those sales... but MS and Sony certainly should.

Interesting Hoffgod. But, your prediction is based on the premise that once the PS3 has a library to rival the 360's (if it ever does :P) that it will sell better. Is this because of RROD? General MS mistrust? Or brand loyalty?Jandurin

[QUOTE="fuzzysquash"] Of course, if Wii wins this generation, we must give credit to its success. But from Sony or Microsoft's standpoint, does it really matter? If Wii wasn't really competing directly against their product, and didn't diminish their profitability in any way, I have a feeling that Sony and Microsoft wouldn't be worried about it even if they did lose.Jandurin

How many kids will get a Wii that may have received a PS3 or 360 if the Wii didn't exist?

I would question whether 3rd parties care about those sales... but MS and Sony certainly should.

good point.

It's very hard for MS and Sony to capture the underage market now that Wii offers the most affordable, family-friendly experience.

[QUOTE="Jandurin"]

[QUOTE="fuzzysquash"] Of course, if Wii wins this generation, we must give credit to its success. But from Sony or Microsoft's standpoint, does it really matter? If Wii wasn't really competing directly against their product, and didn't diminish their profitability in any way, I have a feeling that Sony and Microsoft wouldn't be worried about it even if they did lose.fuzzysquash

How many kids will get a Wii that may have received a PS3 or 360 if the Wii didn't exist?

I would question whether 3rd parties care about those sales... but MS and Sony certainly should.

good point.

It's very hard for MS and Sony to capture the underage market now that Wii offers the most affordable, family-friendly experience.

If by win, you mean Beat the 360. I would say if they continue doing the right things(and lets face it here, in the past 6 months Sony has made a great come back) I think they could over take MS.

Now if by win you mean beat the Wii. No I don't think they can outsell Wii.

That why I do not have a Wii yet...I'll get one for my 6 year old this Christmas though.Heil68

In terms of sales,I don't think Sony can win this war.It's been pretty grim for Sony so far,and I really can't see them catching up.:? Second place,possibly,but first place,surpassing the Wii in sales...I just don't see that happening.

Short answer, I don't think so.

Its going to be Wii #1 in sales, followed by, and here is where its tricky...

The PS3 if Japan sales pick up considerably, or baring that, (and what I think is more likely) is the 360 coming in 2nd.

Anything is possible, but with a $600 price tag and bad rep makes it hard for them.

One thing to note, though:

Not a single killer app for the system has dropped, and we may be on the verge of a whole new price configuration.

Sony seems reluctant at this point to transition from PS2 to PS3, but the transition will take place at some point, perhaps in the near future. If they want to succeed, though, they must make the change prior to the competition (Xbox 360) getting too much of a gain on market share.

Anything is possible, but with a $600 price tag and bad rep makes it hard for them.

blizzvalve

The 60 GB is $500 right now, and I think that the 80 GB will drop to that price by year's end. Perhaps next week, even.

Bad rep really counts for very little. System Warriors make fun of the "riiiiidge racer" incident or the "massive damage" incident or cite Kutaragi's crazy quotes, but the mass market has little knowledge or care about Sony's "bad rep."

Two things are holding back the system: price and lack of software. That's what the mass market cares about, and that's what their perception of reputation is built upon. The Playstation brand has a mass-market reputation for offering a great videogame experience for a broad audience, and if Sony can recapture that by lowering the price of the console and churning out great games, it'll be back on track. Either way, the "bad rep" it's acquired in SW has little effect on its sales growth or lack thereof.

[QUOTE="blizzvalve"]

Anything is possible, but with a $600 price tag and bad rep makes it hard for them.

fuzzysquash

The 60 GB is $500 right now, and I think that the 80 GB will drop to that price by year's end. Perhaps next week, even.

Bad rep really counts for very little. System Warriors make fun of the "riiiiidge racer" incident or the "massive damage" incident or cite Kutaragi's crazy quotes, but the mass market has little knowledge or care about Sony's "bad rep."

Two things are holding back the system: price and lack of software. That's what the mass market cares about, and that's what their perception of reputation is built upon. The Playstation brand has a mass-market reputation for offering a great videogame experience for a broad audience, and if Sony can recapture that by lowering the price of the console and churning out great games, it'll be back on track. Either way, the "bad rep" it's acquired in SW has little effect on its sales growth or lack thereof.

SOny's warehouses ran out of 60gbs a while ago, Fuzzy. Whatever 60gb models you see in the store, those are the last shipments.

SOny's warehouses ran out of 60gbs a while ago, Fuzzy. Whatever 60gb models you see in the store, those are the last shipments.

lafigueroa

Yes, and that is precisely why I think the 80GB will drop to $500 soon. It makes no business sense for Sony to take one step forward and one step back by dropping the price of the 60 GB to $500, then keeping the 80GB at $600.

[QUOTE="foxhound_fox"]Wii has taken the lead... its not going to lose it. And the fact is, even if the PS3 continues selling after the the new systems come out, this war will be over, the PS3 would have lost already.fuzzysquash

There's one thing I've been thinking about though.

Since the Wii and the PS3 are aiming for different markets, can they really be said to be directly competing against one another?

Seems to me like the 360 and the PS3 are substitutes, whereas the PS3 and Wii (or 360 and Wii) are complements. I don't think many people are choosing between PS3 and Wii. The casual audience that Wii has attracted weren't seriously thinking about getting a PS3 or a 360 in the first place.

On the other hand, I think most hardcore gamers who buy a Wii are interested in a 360 or a PS3 as well. PS3 and 360 are much more closer in functionality and horsepower than the Wii, so most consumers will have to choose between them. But Wii seems to be running its separate race.

Of course, if Wii wins this generation, we must give credit to its success. But from Sony or Microsoft's standpoint, does it really matter? If Wii wasn't really competing directly against their product, and didn't diminish their profitability in any way, I have a feeling that Sony and Microsoft wouldn't be worried about it even if they did lose.

I've said this for a while - the Wii isn't competing with the PS3, 360, or PC. It doesn't play the same types of games (in terms of production values, cost, online components, and expansions), it has a much different audience, and a large part of its market is on non-traditional gaming.

It's a bit like saying the iPod is beating the PSP as a gaming system. The iPod has some games, and the new touchscreen models will be getting far more in a few months, but to compare it to the PSP and the DS? That's a bit of a stretch.

Now granted, the primary function of the Wii is gaming, unlike the iPod, but the primary function of a plug-n-play TV "game" is gaming as well, as well as the educational gaming systems, Atari "retro" consoles, et cetera - yet we would never think to compare these to a modern console.

And that's just it. What if Nintendo re-released the SNES, supported ****c NES games on it through emulation, made it a little bit faster, gave it a foot-pedal controller system, sold it for $50, and called it the Snu? Is it a new system? If they develop games for it, is it a new system? How is it more of a new system than the retro atari consoles, which also have new games in development for them? What if they re-release the N64 with a new controller? What about the Gamecube...

There's a point where we have to draw a line and say "this is different - it's not really the same market".

Now - I'm sure someone's going to say "but if a parent buys their kid a Wii and not a PS3, then the Wii is competing". The parent could buy their kid a DVD instead of a videogame, does that mean we should compare DVD sales to videogames sales? I go to the store with a limited amount of money and buy a bag of apples instead of steak. Does that mean steak and apple sales are comparable?

What if I buy a couch instead of a new computer? Should we bust out the Ikea sales charts?

I don't think a PS3 is a good substitute for the Wii, nor is the Wii a good substitute for the PS3, whereas the 360, PS3, and PC will, for the most part, all satisfy the same audience.

To put it in the simplest terms - what could the Wii offer to get the gamer who wants high-end multimedia driven experiences? Not much. What could the PS3 or Xbox 360 offer out of the box for a gamer looking for an inexpensive, family-oriented, motion-controlled entertainment system? Uhhh... "go online and download Little Big Planet" ... "try Viva Pinata kids!" It's just not the same market, and the people who think they are in the same market keep getting dissappointed with their purchase.

I would never buy a Wii as a substitute for a gaming PC - nor would I ever buy a gaming PC as a substitute for a Wii. The place where Nintendo's sales really becomes relevant is in what Sony and Microsoft are going to do next, as well as outside companies that have yet to test the waters of gaming. If this new market becomes as profitable and easy to tap as the existing hardcore / casual traditional market, it may lead them to seek to compete with Nintendo in the future. Though, Nintendo's runaway success, and the failures of third parties to consistenly tap this market will keep Sony and Microsoft from having too much of a roving eye - why compete with Nintendo when you have a market you know you can sell games to?
subrosian

I agree with the majority of your points. It must be why both Sony and Microsoft executives have talked about the Wii as a positive thing for the industry, while they slur insults at each other's platforms. Peter Moore said that for the price of the PS3, gamers could get a Wii and a 360, and I believe Phil Harrison has also talked about reaping the benefits of Nintendo expanding the market. Microsoft and Sony exec's clearly see the potential for a symbiotic, rather than competitive relationship between their platforms and Nintendo's.

I've said this for a while - the Wii isn't competing with the PS3, 360, or PC. It doesn't play the same types of games (in terms of production values, cost, online components, and expansions), it has a much different audience, and a large part of its market is on non-traditional gaming.

It's a bit like saying the iPod is beating the PSP as a gaming system. The iPod has some games, and the new touchscreen models will be getting far more in a few months, but to compare it to the PSP and the DS? That's a bit of a stretch.

Now granted, the primary function of the Wii is gaming, unlike the iPod, but the primary function of a plug-n-play TV "game" is gaming as well, as well as the educational gaming systems, Atari "retro" consoles, et cetera - yet we would never think to compare these to a modern console.

And that's just it. What if Nintendo re-released the SNES, supported ****c NES games on it through emulation, made it a little bit faster, gave it a foot-pedal controller system, sold it for $50, and called it the Snu? Is it a new system? If they develop games for it, is it a new system? How is it more of a new system than the retro atari consoles, which also have new games in development for them? What if they re-release the N64 with a new controller? What about the Gamecube...

There's a point where we have to draw a line and say "this is different - it's not really the same market".

Now - I'm sure someone's going to say "but if a parent buys their kid a Wii and not a PS3, then the Wii is competing". The parent could buy their kid a DVD instead of a videogame, does that mean we should compare DVD sales to videogames sales? I go to the store with a limited amount of money and buy a bag of apples instead of steak. Does that mean steak and apple sales are comparable?

What if I buy a couch instead of a new computer? Should we bust out the Ikea sales charts?

I don't think a PS3 is a good substitute for the Wii, nor is the Wii a good substitute for the PS3, whereas the 360, PS3, and PC will, for the most part, all satisfy the same audience.

To put it in the simplest terms - what could the Wii offer to get the gamer who wants high-end multimedia driven experiences? Not much. What could the PS3 or Xbox 360 offer out of the box for a gamer looking for an inexpensive, family-oriented, motion-controlled entertainment system? Uhhh... "go online and download Little Big Planet" ... "try Viva Pinata kids!" It's just not the same market, and the people who think they are in the same market keep getting dissappointed with their purchase.

I would never buy a Wii as a substitute for a gaming PC - nor would I ever buy a gaming PC as a substitute for a Wii. The place where Nintendo's sales really becomes relevant is in what Sony and Microsoft are going to do next, as well as outside companies that have yet to test the waters of gaming. If this new market becomes as profitable and easy to tap as the existing hardcore / casual traditional market, it may lead them to seek to compete with Nintendo in the future. Though, Nintendo's runaway success, and the failures of third parties to consistenly tap this market will keep Sony and Microsoft from having too much of a roving eye - why compete with Nintendo when you have a market you know you can sell games to?
subrosian

I have to disagree. while the three console may have differing demographic ranges, they overlap sufficiently to be considered in competition with each other.As I see it, the difference between Wii and PS3 is no bigger than that between PSP and DS. Comments from Sony and Microsoft feps saying otherwise just sould like moving the goalposts to me.

Very interesting responses.

I think when it comes down to it though, Sony need to work on giving consumers a more affordable price for the PS3, and release more compelling software. Neither will happen till 2008. Will it be too late?

Hopefully not. I wanna see this competition heat up, and Sony's just the one to make that happen.

[QUOTE="lafigueroa"]

SOny's warehouses ran out of 60gbs a while ago, Fuzzy. Whatever 60gb models you see in the store, those are the last shipments.

fuzzysquash

Yes, and that is precisely why I think the 80GB will drop to $500 soon. It makes no business sense for Sony to take one step forward and one step back by dropping the price of the 60 GB to $500, then keeping the 80GB at $600.

Hopefully they drop the PS3 80GB for $500. Also they should release a 40GB version for $400 and bun dle Spiderman 3 Bluray with every PS3. That will boost up sales.

As far as the Wii is concerned, like many others, I don't put it in the same category as the other 2.

Between the PS3 and 360, yes, they have a chance. Since a little before E3, Sony has been on a role at gaming events by clearly making all the right announcements. We'll see that continue on the way out this year with TGS and from there, into next year with some heavy hitters for them such as MGS4, KZ2, and LBP. If Sony can keep nabbing themselves some third party exclusives from key developers (I don't really believe the 'We don't buy exclusives' line) and get their first parties to put out titles of interest too, they can gain over on the 360. With the recent rumors of a $400 40GB PS3 going around, that could only help matters as many are just waiting for a price drop and at a competeable price of $400 with a good amount of HDD space, all before the holiday season (where there will be a rush of titles), they are in a good position.

Hopefully they drop the PS3 80GB for $500. Also they should release a 40GB version for $400 and bun dle Spiderman 3 Bluray with every PS3. That will boost up sales.

blizzvalve

It would be a smart move, in my view. Could lose them a lot of money in the short term, though, as I'm sure production cost on the 40GB far exceeds its projected price.

As far as the Wii is concerned, like many others, I don't put it in the same category as the other 2.

Between the PS3 and 360, yes, they have a chance. Since a little before E3, Sony has been on a role at gaming events by clearly making all the right announcements. We'll see that continue on the way out this year with TGS and from there, into next year with some heavy hitters for them such as MGS4, KZ2, and LBP. If Sony can keep nabbing themselves some third party exclusives from key developers (I don't really believe the 'We don't buy exclusives' line) and get their first parties to put out titles of interest too, they can gain over on the 360. With the recent rumors of a $400 40GB PS3 going around, that could only help matters as many are just waiting for a price drop and at a competeable price of $400 with a good amount of HDD space, all before the holiday season (where there will be a rush of titles), they are in a good position.

-Zaku-

I have a feeling Sony will have a strong showing at TGS this year. 2008 is the year I think PS3 will come into its own.