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Analysts bullish on Starcraft II sales

Signal Hill's Greenwald calls 5-6M sales estimates conservative, while Lazard Capital's Sebastian predicts 6.5M sales for Blizzard's latest through 2010.

200 Comments

Blizzard Entertainment's Starcraft II still didn't have a release date in February, but that didn't stop a host of analysts from laying out their predictions for the sci-fi real-time strategy title. Pacific Crest Securities' Evan Wilson put the game's sales at 6 million, while Wedbush's Michael Pachter felt Starcraft II and World of Warcraft: Cataclysm could combine to sell 12 million through the end of 2010.

The stars seem to be aligning for blockbuster Starcraft II sales.
The stars seem to be aligning for blockbuster Starcraft II sales.

With Starcraft II out for just over 24 hours, Blizzard has yet to offer official sales figures for the title. However, that hasn't stopped a new batch of analysts from weighing in on the game's sales potential over the next several months. Signal Hill's Todd Greenwald believes Activision Blizzard's bottom line will be inflated by Starcraft II sales of upward of 5 million.

"We have picked up nothing but positive data points on the recent launch of Starcraft II--from South Korea to New York, the excitement over SCII is palpable," Greenwald wrote. "We think that rough estimates for Starcraft II to sell 5-6 million units this year are highly achievable and will prove to be conservative over the next five months."

Greenwald called out a variety of reasons for making his multimillion-unit sales prediction for Starcraft II. Namely, he said the original Starcraft, released in 1998, has sold 10 million units worldwide, 5 to 6 million of which were sold in Korea. He also noted that there are currently 11 million users still actively playing the original Starcraft and Diablo II through Blizzard's online platform, Battle.net.

More than just selling a Zerg rush's worth of units, Greenwald believes Starcraft II will bring hefty operating margins for Activision Blizzard.

"Despite being in development for four to five years…the vast majority of SCII's development costs have already been expensed, which makes the margin impact of SCII even more positive," he wrote. "It already stands to be one of Activision's most profitable titles, given that it is on the PC (no $8-9 hardware royalty), it is retailing for $60, not $50, and it should sell a large portion digitally through Battle.net, foregoing the 20 percent royalty paid to retailers. We believe SCII can approach 50 percent operating margins and contribute at least $0.07 of earnings to Q3 results."

Though he did so in a less verbose fashion, Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian also expects Starcraft II to sell gangbusters before the end of the year. According to the analyst, Blizzard's latest should sell some 4.5 million units through September, a number that could swell to 6.5 million units through the remainder of 2010.

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IndianaPwns39

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Of course there was a Zerg rush gag. Of course... That's all I'm taking away from this article. The painfully out of place Zerg rush joke.

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Sukharevskaya

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I enjoyed the original Starcraft more than any other RTS--I recognize there are other superb ones out there. But I'm going to wait for the price to drop or for a bundle on this one with so many other great games coming out. I'm pleased with some of the upgrades they showed though, looks like a blast

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BubbaEgge

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I'm getting sick of people whining and hating on companies for applying policies to help the company from losing out on millions of dollars from piracy. So what if you have to take another 5 minutes from playing to authenticate your copy. These companies spend millions of dollars and put in years and years of time, sweat, blood and dedication to bring the game to YOU!!! I would like to see how you feel after dedicating half a decade to make something, just to have people steal it from you. Get real, don't blame the companies that employ these tactics, stand up against the hackers that pirate their games.

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Daian

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@green_dominator How could u possibly not have a PC powerful enough to play it, it doesn't even require a dual core processor to run. It's probably the least demanding AAA title released in the past couple of years on PC. @darthwarmonger That's not going to happen and if it will the gameplay will be disastrous, u simply do not have the level of control depth on a gamepad that u have with a keyboard and mouse.

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n0matter

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And right now you're here trying to tell us all how cool the game is instead of playing it. A magnificent contradiction in action.

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doomsdaydave11

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@MKID232 Here :) << LINK REMOVED >>

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y2kern

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i liked the original starcraft it was really good. the cinematics were top notch for the day and age it came out. i think starcraft 2 will be good as well, even though i like starcraft i do not like activision, activision's greed will ruin the entire gaming industry. just now they might want to start charging to play all their games online which i am totally against. and just to make things clear xbox live is a gaming service that has alot of things to offer, so i wont mind paying for that, but paying to play any of activision stand alone games is a rip off.

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admiral_picard

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I refuse to buy this game, Blizzard is aligned with evil Activision headed by Emperor Kotick - why is the game $60 instead of $50 like EVERY OTHER BIG NAME PC GAME EVER? What's the reason this time? Probably the same that it was with MW2 - "Because we can, and because people will pay it". Screw you Activision/Blizzard - you don't make games worth anything extra than everyone else's games, stop jacking the prices up on PC gamers!

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MKID232

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@doomsdaydave11 I know they'll make more than that. I'm just making a guess on what their sales in the next month or so will be. As for the cost of development, I had no clue that was a mistake. I just read it in an article that was featured on this site, and assumed it to be true.

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The-Techspert

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@acasero44 That's funny, because I just took a quick glance at your profile and you rated WCIII: The Frozen Throne a 9.5...yesterday. Stop being a troll, it's not becoming

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maverick_76

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My guess is about 7-8 million copies.

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WICGuardian

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n0matter I wasted $115 SC2 $70 cdn SC2 Stradegy $20cdn with discount pre order SC battle chest $25cdn a week before I stoped because I had to stop. I had to go to sleep and let what I just witnessd sink into my brain. Now I have questions. Will Jim Kill Krennigin, Do I trust Matthew, Have the Zerg already won? These are questions that I will have answered once I finish my slurpee. And I will come back and tell you and everyone else who has no idea what I'm talking about. Epicness....

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kvan33

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Seems a bit high to me, but I don't understand the draw of RTS games in the first place. Anyhow if the early reviews are right, it's good to see a company take time to develop a game and do it right. I certainly hope they make a ton of cash. Maybe that'll show companies like Capcom how to run their business model.

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n0matter

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WICGuardian I think you're missing the point. Or choosing to ignore it. I already OWN the game or didn't you read that? It's pretty and plays well and it's generally 'ok'. I explained what I didn't like about it as well. Try to have some perspective and post opinions based on how you really feel, not how you think you should because you just dropped $60 and don't want to feel stupid.

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doomsdaydave11

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@MKID232 They didn't spend $100000000 on it, not even close. It was a misquoted figure. And they'll make a lot more than that.

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WICGuardian

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acasero44 nobody likes you get over it

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acasero44

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THese blizzard fanboys will defend their horrible game at any cost just like sony fanboys defending horrible games like MAG or White kinght chronicles. Those games suck GET OVER IT!@!

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green_dominator

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I wouldn't be surprised if Starcraft II ends up this year's biggest seller. Sadly a part of me wishes it would fail......I don't wish the game would fail because I hate it more, I hate Activision and I'd like for them to watch their sales plummet because of the way they do business. If Blizzard wasn't part of Activision I probably would have bought the game even though I don't have a PC powerful enough to play it.

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WICGuardian

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n0matter hmm...well if that's how ya feel you probably should+n't get this. Your right man....the game play is too slow. Not enough varitiy of enemies. The graphics are horrible. And I think Jim Raynor's gay!??!!? You caught me. Cudos to you

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PixelAddict

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@danish I have Skype up and running, but my friends do not. It's a legitimate solution, true, but I shouldn't have to do such a thing, you know? It's like a duct tape solution. It works, but jeez.

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n0matter

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WICGuardian I don't know about you but when I start playing a game I really like, I tend to actually play the game, not 'take a break because of its epicness'. How does that even make sense? I remember people doing the same thing when Warhammer, Conan and Aion were released; signing on to WoW to tell people how awesome the games were. Of course, here we are months later and none of those titles are doing very well. To me it's just an indicator that people aren't as impressed as they expected to be and want to get OTHER people either hyped up about it or jealous that they don't own it in order to help in justifying their purchase. That said, I'm on the fence. I think the game is actually quite enjoyable. But I want to be able to run the Protos and Zerg campaigns NOW, not $120 and two years from now. And LAN play was one of my favorite components of the original SC experience. Now I can't multi with a room full of fellow nerds.

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darthwarmonger

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I would love a console version. My PC and laptop are for work. To valuable to play games on. I know I'm missing out.

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Waldkrieger

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Analysts need to shut up and get a real job. I am sick of reading about them on here.

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danish-death

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@Pixel - use Skype, problem solved.

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MKID232

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They'll make $290,000,000 off their $100,000,000 game.

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ShockerX01

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I shall await the news for the number. :) Blizzard is a great company for making quality RTS games. I'm sure it won't disappoint unlike Dawn of War II (at least multiplayer side).

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PixelAddict

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I played the first Sc and the Brood Wars Expansion.. which were both amazing. I never really played online against strangers, but my friends and I had a blast blowing each other up. So of COURSE there will be expansions. Some of you peeps act like this is a new thing. Like Diablo II's Lord of Destruction never happened. Or WoW never had a single expansion.... Only NEGATIVE issue I have so far is this: voice chat. In particular, the lack thereof. Not everyone is having issues, but I did right out of the box yesterday, and so did my 2 other friends. I love the game, and I KNOW I will have a blast playing it, and I know the myriad of hardware combos lead to issues such as this, but it's one of the big reasons I moved over to console gaming on Xbox LIVE. Ok now off to the map editor to make a map with randomly generated nuke scripts. :)

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WICGuardian

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n0matter Just like the people in the WoW room, I am also taking breaks from this game because of it's epicness

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deactivated-64efdf49333c4

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Analysts predict the sky will be blue tomorrow...until the weather forecast changes to cloudy. Then they predict the sky will be grey. Analysts suck. I've seen reports from all sorts of analysts, young and old, experienced and green, and they're rarely right about anything (except in cases like this where it's obvious). There are a few good analysts out there, but you should only follow what these specific people say, not the mad ramblings of this mysterious group of "analysts" so many people enjoy quoting.

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n0matter

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I've heard two kinds of feedback on this title so far: 1) People hate the crap out of it for it's lack of LAN play, inability to 1p without signing online first, the price point and the fact that you will need to buy two further installments of the game before you actually own the whole thing. 2) People that have bought it and think it's incredible and want to tell everyone in the world how happy they are with their purchase. Rose colored glasses in full effect or simply they don't care about the restrictions that make the original so popular. I've even seen people on WoW spending hours in trade chat telling people how great it is...on WoW...because the game is so awesome they don't want to actually play it, just get others to to help justify their own purchase. It's a great franchise and I've personally enjoyed the title so far. But I'm getting a little tired of this whole Blizzard/Activision no-piracy policies that make it difficult or inconvenient to play their games without first jumping through a series of hoops to authenticate your software. I'm also getting tired of their 'vision' around creating some king of facebook-esque gaming community where everything I do is monitored by the company and anyone I'm affiliated with. Just make the damn games and sell them already.

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The-Techspert

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@acasero44 Shut up. Just shut up.

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Drynads

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@LikeHaterade Depending on difficulty your first play-through should be 12-20 hours. I still don't understand all the complaints directed towards the next two games. It is like no one has ever bought an expansion pack in their life.

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PixelAddict

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@acasero44 Stop it. You're embarrassing yourself and others.

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LikeHaterade

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@gandaf007 Thank you for the information. Do you have any idea on how long the campaigns will be? Because we're talking about the same game that millions have already paid for discluding a single campaign, for each game. Twenty dollars at the most seems much more appropriate. It all seems so ridiculous to me.

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NiteX

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Korea alone will be 5 million I'm sure.

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Drynads

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Acasero might be trolling, but his logic is shared by many new gamers and children. Another sad day for humanity...

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The-Techspert

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What I want to know is if the 3 games will have a linked multiplayer or not. Hopefully it's something like the 3 games all have different campaigns (duh), but all link to the same multiplayer.

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TheAustrian

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@acasero44 Gears of War? Are you kidding? I'm sitting here laughing at how ridiculous that comment is. The original Starcraft came out in 1998, years before GoW.

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stabby_mcgee

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Oh market analysts, one of the least statistically accurate professions out there, along with art critics and sportswriters.

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ASHinROY

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@acasero44 Are you a troll, or just naive?

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telefanatic

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acasero44 do you know when the first StarCraft came out ? 1998 , and you telling me a RTS game copied Gears of War ? Keep living in your fantasy world.

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ow8

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@acasero44 Copied from Gears of War? Are you kidding me? Man talkabout kids being raising on the 360 having no clue.

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WICGuardian

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acasero44 So dosn't that mean Gears of War copied off WarCraft?

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JaxxRaxor

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The analysts are right to be bullish about Starcraft II sales. I think it had over 800k preorders in the USA, and I bet its going to sell 3-4 million worldwide in the first week alone.

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acasero44

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This game will sell 2m at best. OH lmao at the failure it brought upon the gaming world with the chessy fat boned graphics copy cats froms gears of war.

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jer_1

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Bah, I'm not paying $60 for a game that I would likely only play through once. Not much point in playing this game online with all the people who have played starcraft for the past 12 years, it would only piss me off.

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gandaf007

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@LikeHaterade The following games will be priced at $40.

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The-Techspert

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Hopefully this release will show other developers that PC gaming isnt dead. At least, thats assuming that Starcraft doesnt get pirated out the ass...Please dont pirate SCII

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