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Analyst: Xbox One may have 3x more launch units than PS4

Robert W. Baird predicts Microsoft's console may be more readily available, though supply for both likely to be "constrained."

1608 Comments

The Xbox One may have two to three times more launch units than the PlayStation 4 this holiday, according to Robert W. Baird analyst Colin Sebastian.

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In a note to investors today, he said this superior launch allocation would give Microsoft an initial advantage, but noted supply for both next-generation systems will likely be "constrained," leading to potential shortages. His estimations are based on supply chain checks.

Sebastian also said the tides are turning for Microsoft, following its dramatic policy reversal last month that saw the company roll back various controversial features.

"Despite losing the headline battle at E3, we believe that Xbox One has regained some momentum in recent weeks, in part due to modifications in policies related to online connectivity and used games," Sebastian said.

Sebastian also discussed the prospects for the Wii U, saying its suite of holiday titles will make or break the system.

"Nintendo's Wii U remains challenged, needs a price cut, and the fate of the platform will likely rest on the popularity of Nintendo's holiday software lineup," he said.

High-profile first-party Wii U games due out this year include Pikmin 3 (August), The Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker HD (October), Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze (November), and Super Mario 3D World (December).

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Avatar image for ScreamDream
ScreamDream

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Edited By ScreamDream

I'm getting tired of these stupid analysts. He gives no reasoning why the X1 will have 3x more launch units. Stupid Robert W. Baird.

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Avatar image for AyatollaofRnR
AyatollaofRnR

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@ScreamDream Did you not read the part where it said the estimate was based on supply chain checks.

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HardStomp

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Would be a huge mistake for Sony, but don't give this "analyst" too much credit. Supply chain checks? They're practically the same hardware! He probably just noticed PS4s are sold out at a few more places and extrapolated.

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onixevil

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Edited By onixevil

Depends on where both systems ranked at top selling items

PS4 at 6th best selling item

Xbox One at 51st best selling Item

Microsoft should talk about the units they think'll ship compare to what Sony have already sold .

http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-video-games/zgbs/videogames/ref=zg_bs_nav_0#3


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racerxgundam

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@onixevil i don't doubt what u say...but wasnt the xbox one like the hottest thing on amazon not too long ago?

it actually dropped? and weren't there a bunch of stuff for sony in the top ten?

> wii u

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haze_blaze

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@racerxgundam @onixevil Yes, the xbox one was the number one seller for a moment... but only b/c there were 3 different sku's for the PS4 in the top 10.

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Meta-Gnostic

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@haze_blaze @racerxgundam @onixevil plus another 4th PS4 sku farther back.

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DarkReign2552

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I don't think it's a matter of Xbox having more units than PS4. Don't get me wrong as I've been a diehard Xbox supporter since 2001 and even amidst the controversy I've pledged my loyalty by preordering a Day One Xbox One Sku, but the reason the Xbox One may seem to have better availability is because the limited number of regions it will be available in at Launch. Compared to the number of regions PS4 will reach day 1, Xbox's global saturation simply isn't as widespread. It is completely bypassing the entire Asias region after all. That said, the removal of region locking has been extremely beneficial for importers as well, something the pre-180 XB1 was going to make impossible to perform.


Overall, as sad as I am to be losing out on some of the functions like Family Sharing and no-disc play (and I don't believe the 24-hour confirmation needed to be removed, simply revised so that people without stable connections still had some opportunity to utilize it) I am happy that their reversal of said policies has opened up the console to more potential consumers. I'm looking forward to both the PS4 and Xbox One, but XB1 will definitely be at the forefront of my attention for a while (just like PS3, I'm going to wait for PS4 to get a pricedrop. Playstation consoles never seem to pick up steam until the later half of their lifespan anyway.)

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racerxgundam

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@DarkReign2552 yaknow..that makes alot of sense. maybe there is simply more units cuz the distribution is staggered.

as far as the family share thing....it seemed like glorified demos to me. They also started to say that stuff near the end of the hate monsoon...seemed like something that they were using as a means to placate the masses rather than a true attempt at something cool.

> wii u

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BelaidKL

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Edited By BelaidKL

The real question... Will they sell?? Something tells me no

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racerxgundam

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Edited By racerxgundam

i found the article ever so slightly misleading...is the more launch units cuz of more production or because of low preorders/interest etc etc etc

Personally i think the initial sales for the xbox to be good. First six months should be at or close to expectations...once you get past initial adopters, fanboys, adherents to certain franchises, and say parents that have no clue about the console...then i expect it to stagnant a bit.

i think they botched what should have been a great cycle for them. The policies were sending them down the path of monumental failures like the 3do...or maybe jaguar...now with the policy changes..i expect them to have a "meh" cycle.

What i think puts them in a world of hurt however is how much they have spent on everything BUT the system such as the NFL licenses and the tv show.

its such a shame. ps4 wins and all and maybe the wii u eeks out another year of fail here...but it would have been nice to see the market kinda shift a lil more to region 1 than region 4.

but console justice is console justice. they deserve to have hot coals shoved into their asses for even THINKING about the policies.

> wii u

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strothers101

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@racerxgundam this guy...

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bigmikeOK

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Took me a second GS. You guys got me and all the gamers. Just do a story about anything next generation or even better, throw a little PS4 vs Xbox One in it and you know we come running to makes comments and check it out even if the story is not really newsworthy. Nice one.....see? I'm commenting right now you clever dogs.

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yavix

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Well this just means there will probably be 3x more Xbox Ones on the shelves than PS4.

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onixevil

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Here's to you song belongs to PS community .

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arkhamcity54

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Edited By arkhamcity54

PS4 is cheaper so It will sell more at launch.

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onixevil

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Edited By onixevil

@arkhamcity54 Cheaper and more powerful like Dodge sport cars .

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wiiutroll

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Edited By wiiutroll

@arkhamcity54 apple says hello

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arkhamcity54

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Edited By arkhamcity54

@wiiutroll @arkhamcity54 ?


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arkhamcity54

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@wiiutroll @arkhamcity54 @leviathanwing ok.

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wiiutroll

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@arkhamcity54 @leviathanwing @wiiutroll marketing expert over here wait until everything set in done. marketing= greater sales

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arkhamcity54

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@leviathanwing @arkhamcity54 @wiiutroll The PS4 will probably sell more.

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leviathanwing

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@arkhamcity54 @wiiutroll look at ianything and their prices vs the competition and then figure it out.

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Gears_0f_L0ve

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@ALCHEMISTx24x7 I want both to do a good job, however we, as consumers, should not support unethical business practices. Sony's stance on 'consumer first' approach is more likable. So regardless of whether the Xbox One is a good device or not, MS has played their hand rather badly.

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DramaCida

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people should change the site name to ConsoleSpot

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leviathanwing

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@DramaCida use the pc tab/mobile/whatever tab then buddy... the options there you just need to choose it.

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strothers101

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I keep finding these articles too late. The hate train has already left. Living in Australia has its flaws ... Like the fact that I have to ride a kangaroo to uni.

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bkohary

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@strothers101 I agree. It sucks having your work mail delivered by Koala. Slow fu%&ers

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strothers101

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Edited By strothers101

@bkohary @strothers101 that's nothing . I went to hospital the other week and my doctor was a platypus. The cut backs on public healthcare are really starting to hurt things.

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bkohary

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@LiquidGold @bkohary @strothers101 Wouldn't happen in Australia. He'd be fried with salt and pepper.

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LiquidGold

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@bkohary @strothers101 Try being operated on by Dr zoidberg WOOPWOOPWOOPWOOPWOOP then welcome to my world.

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bkohary

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@strothers101 @bkohary Yeah, those playpus doctors will screw you every time.

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LiquidGold

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@strothers101 I definitely should of gone Uni in Oz

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LiquidGold

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Edited By LiquidGold

My dog caught a Frisbee today, just thought I would share that with you.

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DramaCida

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Edited By DramaCida

@LiquidGold that means your dog is much more inteligent then this microsoft fancy pants .


still like the nostalgic comments



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bigmikeOK

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Edited By bigmikeOK

@LiquidGold That is great news indeed. Could you share more about the story? It's a slow news day after a week of Comic Con. I think the gaming world still has the Comic Con hangover.

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LiquidGold

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@bigmikeOK

One time when I was a kid, I got kidnapped by 2 guys for throwing a torch light bulb at their car when it droved passed. The 2 men chased me across 2 fields to get me.

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bigmikeOK

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@LiquidGold @bigmikeOK Yea, I doubt that it would. I'd have went straight for God if I were you though but to each his own. LOL

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LiquidGold

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@bigmikeOK Its a true story lol. The car chased me across two fields with the 1 guy on foot in hot pursuit. I was about 13 my friends that I was with were pissing them self's as I ran to escape. When they got me they through me into the back of the car and said " Your going to the fucking cop shop" I'm not sure who was more scared me or the little barking rat dog in the back. They told the police I throw a brick at them LOL. My friends went and told my mom I had been kidnapped LOL. She went ape shit. When the police asked me why I threw a light at them I said Jesus told me to, that didn't go down to well.

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bigmikeOK

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@LiquidGold @bigmikeOK You know, we might be able to get a book deal done on that. I still want more on the dog though.

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DramaCida

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Who da **** cares about this shit? ... Oh wait ...

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leviathanwing

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@DramaCida did your tiny brain just finally get your own irony?

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toddx77

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The Wii was alwyays running out of units back in the day and look at how well it still did.

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leviathanwing

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@toddx77 this isnt that... this is about units shipped and available and not sold or bought.

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de-astroturfer

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@300jozecca I bet the black-marketeers will be disappointed when they cant sell them

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onixevil

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>Ouya

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onixevil

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Fatbox One A#$hole .

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de-astroturfer

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Edited By de-astroturfer

Random analyst makes out M$ has more launch units than PS4 to placate the truth that M$ has limited supply, to give the impression the xbone is in high demand Which it isn't !

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iempire68

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@de-astroturfer More shipped units doesn't mean more sold. You are right, they are trying to spin it so it sounds like it's in higher demand. If that was true they wouldn't have stopped preorders for xb1 already.

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de-astroturfer

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Edited By de-astroturfer

@iempire68 @de-astroturfer They did exactly the same thing with the surface when they released it, restricted supply to get the sold out headline and make it seem more desirable and we all know how that ended up

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