This is a war of attrition that won't come down to troops but of supplies. Russia's been burning through their supplies of armor and missiles and Ukraine's is contingent on western support and the US is leading on that end, but their survival relies on that that, but I've no doubt as long as they're supplied they'll hold out. Not to mention Russia's best trained soldiers have been largely wiped away and their troops are merely cannon fodder, like literally, that's what their human wave tactics are. Not to mention Russia lost one of its greatest military assets, mainly the perception of its strength, shown to be nothing more than a paper tiger plagued by corruption, a lack of capabilities from the onset.
This is a significant proxy war so the price tag is relatively miniscule compared to NATO waging such a war, or what they'll spend to bolster NATO should Russia take Ukraine, but long term is cost saving because our military spending is largely tied to being prepared to face off against an equal adversary, which won't be a factor should this cripple the Putin regime. This might mean post-war, west will spend considerable money to rebuild Ukraine, and Russia's economy, but tie it to the dismantling of their nuclear arsenal.
It's also a field test of western technology and capability and will no doubt shape how our own military branches shape their power. Already there's talk of replacing Abraham tank numbers with Bradleys due to their mobility. Though early on the effectiveness of Javelins and NLAWs showed how formidable foot soldiers can be against armor and aircraft, drones themselves of all shapes and sizes are proving more invaluable to the effort than the more expensive ordinance. Cheap civilian drones can be repurposed to be tank killers with a price tag of $1000 a piece, exploiting the still massive defect in Russian armor design to have all their ammo susceptible to ignition from a top turret hit from and drone strapped with an incendiary ordinance.
China's support for Russia materially seems like a dual purpose hedged bet. There's been murmerings they benefit two ways. Either continuing this war will lead to the crumbling and fracturing of the Russian nation state, whereby China may stand to gain territory in that event. Plus, China's aspiration to take Taiwan, they're hoping US support for Ukraine will weaken the ability of US to intervene in a China-Taiwan conflict escalation. So, that's why I think they do what they do. But I've no doubt they've checked themselves no to not want to repeat Russia's mistake. Plus China's advanced military equipment is reverse engineered from Russia's, and Russia's technology being captured by Ukraine intact is no doubt being delivered to US to be dissected by DARPA for development of countermeasures. Something else they're no doubt concerned over.
As far as Russia's ability to wage this war, they have an endless supply of cannon fodder, but above that their supplies aren't limitless. They blew through their artillery within the first year and rely on repurposed surface to air missiles for offensive capabilities and have had to essentially dismantle their nations air defense system to take it to Ukraine for offensive purposes. But a war with China would be much shorter, essentially a naval blockade, cut off on imports would starve the country to ruin in months. Reliance by western economies on China's manufacturing is trending less significant largely due to companies abandoning operations there. Labor isn't as cheap as it use to be and Chinese government is too overbearing on business setting up operations there. Companies are taking their business elsewhere. Furthermore one strategic advantage China was hoping to gain was cornering market of semiconductors to make advanced nations bend the knee or risk being technologically crippled. Taiwanese companies making these have already started taking their manufacturing outside Taiwan to take that advantage off the table for China.
Russia to have ordinance produced by China due to calculations in more efficient corruption. In Russia funds get siphoned at every level, that just be the nature of their economy. In China, misappropriation usually happens at the top, with fsr less of it happening down the chain. Iran is involved in drone manufacturing for Russia, a consequence of Trump unilaterally ending western relations to bring Iran into international community. I think this support could be cut if western nations can manage to bring back the original nuclear monitoring deal with extra caveats related to Iran's support with Russia.
There's been a bolstering over the last year of Ukranian opporatives within Russian borders sabotaging domestic wartime production of chemical plants, manufacturing, and now their logistics routes. Lately the lengrhy underground rail routes that conceal the supplies China gives to Russia have been eliminated, so China's supplies will likely come open routes that will be able to be monitored by Western satellites and more accurately where they end up going which will no doubt send sappers to take out logistic supply hubs.
The use of western armor has also proven invaluable in ways people seem to not quite understand. Because last winter Russia dug in a defensive network, western armor is largely used as bait to attract artillery fire. Whereby drone operators watching defensive positions can pinpoint artillery positions and take out Russian equipment and ammo supplies. The main benefit of western tanks over the Russian ones is survivability. When a Russian tank takes a hit that's it for the crew. Western tanks are much better designed to keep crews alive, they're impervious to being immobilized, but they do better to keep crew alive, and much better suited for reconnaissance efforts than direct assaults.
What mostly gets overlooked on the slow territorial gains is what the gains they are getting mean. Right now in Zaporizhzhia their wedging a hole in their tiers of defenses to cut off Russian logistic capabilities. Further gains across the Dnipro River are further encroaching on a significant Russian logistic supply route to the Eastern provinces that come up from Crimea. People often forget those important nuances to warfare that have been crucial from the onset. Some of the earliest strategies from Russia's initial border incursion was for Ukraine to use their Turkish drones effectively. They'd circle large columns of armor and troops, dozens and dozens of vehicles single file, and what did they hit with their limited ordinance(?), the fuel trucks, effectively immobilizing the entire column. As the saying goes, "logistics wins wars", and this war has probably demonstrated this concept best in recent years.
And thus, Ukraine is still on track to win this war, but it's contingent on US supplying them. The only threat comes from the ultra-MAGA GOP, who've been Russian cheerleaders since the start, who champion Russian disinformation in news and social media. So yeah, if Ukraine outlook is bleak, well, that's a problem in US politics, an namely one faction is entirely to blame, namely that coalition of flat earthers and shills of anti-intellectualism who roll their eyes at science, believe the world is run by Satan worshipping reptilian shapeshifters that eat babies. That's the real enemy of world piece, and why we can't have nice things.
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