Back in 1995, if anyone remembers, the PSone was up against the two reigning champions from the 16-bit generation. It wasn't a big hit when it released. People were either buying the Saturn or waiting for the N64. The PSone had a huge boost in sales when FF VII came out. Then again when Gran Turismo and MGS came out. Three exclusives beat the competition. Sony held that lead until this generation. The PS2 sold beacuse of built-in DVD support and more great games. Sony had the least powerful of the three machines from the last generation.
Do not count Sony out of the competition, yet. FF XIII and other exclusives will sell PS3's. It won't be enough to win this generation, but I don't think that this generation will be "won". Companies will not be able to afford exclusives during this generation. Microsoft may be able to buy exclusives, or just exclusive content, but most games will be identical on both next-gen consoles (again Wii is not next-gen, just new). Sony will have in-house exclusives and Microsoft will have bought exclusives. These exclusives will determine which system you buy. When the dust finally clears, which won't be until the next generation comes out, most people will have either a 360 or a PS3. Of those two groups, half of them will have a Wii, and 10% will have all three.
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