Hmm...signs are true and not true. It depends on if its random or not... If it's random i would say it might happen cause you never thought about that subject, while if you thought about it, then the chances of it becoming true are very little.
I would break the stick in half, throw one half at a bear, make the bear pull me out by threatening it with the other half, drink some of the water and throw all the rest into the bears eyes, then jump on the bear's back and make him run back to town with you on top
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