Are farming sims the future of gaming?

Who Was There: On the third and final day of the 2009 Penny Arcade Expo, Andrew Mayer delivered a talk titled "The Future of Gaming: You Don't Know What You're Going to Get." A game-industry vet in the more casual and social-gaming spaces, Mayer currently serves as a user experience consultant for MediaShifter.

What He Talked About: Mayer's forward-looking session began with a look at the past and present, namely as it pertained to hardware. According to Mayer, hardware has traditionally driven innovation and evolution in the game industry, but it has reached a point where technical capabilities are no longer driving the market.

In other words, the future is going to be dictated by the technology that's already available. However, this presents a problem for those looking to predict the future, as the next step is less clear-cut, he said, before noting that the trends are beginning to emerge.

Notably, one recent development is that hardcore games--the traditional breadbasket of the game industry--are becoming more of a niche market. Mayer noted that the market for hardcore games has already begun to contract, as is evident to anyone who has been following the NPD Group's recent monthly US retail sales recaps.

The result of this, he said, will be fewer big-name publishers accompanied by a surge in innovative, small-scale indie games. However, it will also mean that monetization options primarily employed in casual titles, such as virtual goods or the pay-to-play model, will begin to bleed into the design of hardcore titles. What's more, games like Blizzard Entertainment's World of Warcraft proved that this audience is willing to pay for their experience.

Mayer went on to note that "small is the new big," by which he meant that bite-sized games are becoming significant money-makers. This is a good thing, he noted, because small indie shops are making real money for their work, and the "developers are lovable again." By that, he meant that it is possible for gamers to form a relationship with a small developer, one that can't really happen with big-name publishers such as Electronic Arts.

Mayer then took a look at the platforms that currently define the game industry. Beginning with the PC, he said that the desktops, laptops, and netbooks are cheaper and more reliable than in year's past, making them a far better platform. The PC, he said, remains the home of the most popular games in the world and the hardcore audience, and it's also the proving ground for new ideas.

Next, he addressed the console, saying that one of its big advantages lies in the fact that most people don't pirate software on this platform. The fact that people aren't able to tinker with it is also a big draw for licensors, who are able to put their content on consoles without fear that it will be transformed into something that would be bad for their brand. Mayer also noted that the console isn't just for games anymore, and in the future, people will expect to have ancillary items such as video streaming, social networking, and downloadable content built into the device.

Of portable devices, Mayer noted that these are followers, not leaders. Platforms such as the iPhone or DS are sort of like consoles, but easier to pirate and sort of like PCs, but not as open or innovative. Mayer also mentioned the Web browser as a platform, saying not only do games not become obsolete, but they work on everything from your phone to your desktop.

Mayer's session then took a turn toward what he called "the world of free." Giving away a game for free is the best way to build a social audience, he said, but it hinges on the ability to draw in hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of players every day. It's also worth noting, he said, that the price of free is privacy, as these games let the developers track everything that the player does.

So how is money made off the free model? Mayer said that the most obvious way is ads. However, offers, such as getting someone to sign up for something else in exchange for in-game currency, as well as microtransactions, are also viable ways to glean a few bucks out of players.

At last, Mayer arrived at the future of gaming, and unfortunately it is a dim one for anyone who has spent much time tending their gardens on Facebook. The farming sims are tremendously popular, he said, because they're easy to play, exist on an existing platform, and are very social. According to FarmVille, 18 million people a month play FarmVille on Facebook.

The good news is that Mayer believes these types of social games will become more complex, though only insofar as they continue to be profitable. He also believes that they will become a bit more action-oriented, though of the simplistic old-school arcade title type.

The fact remains, though, that developers are keen on the new model of gaming, he said. It lets them invest less in the beginning, the games can be smaller, and developers don't need to rely on big-time publishers. And while designers are still learning the ropes, he said, the low cost of failure allows for experimentation and innovation far more easily than if they're working on a large, AAA title.

Quote: "In the future, there will only be farming games."--Andrew Mayer.

Takeaway: Old-guard gamers may have a pessimistic view on the rise of social and casual gaming, but the fact remains that these types of offerings are generating a significant amount of money for the industry.