More analysts make NPD July picks

With the industry-tracking NPD Group set to release its US retail sales figures for the month of July this week, analysts are telling their clients what to expect when the numbers are announced. Two such analysts spoke up last week, and they're joined today by Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian and Pacific Crest Securities' Evan Wilson.

Like their peers, Sebastian and Wilson are projecting significant gains for industry sales over those of July 2006. Sebastian estimated that game software sales were up 15-20 percent for the traditionally slow month. Wilson took a more bullish stance, estimating 25 percent software sales growth. Both analysts said new-release sales would be driven by NCAA Football 08, Guitar Hero Encore: Rocks the 80s, and Mario Strikers Charged. Wilson also expects older releases like Transformers, Guitar Hero II, Mario Party 8, Wii Play, and Pokémon Diamond and Pearl to have continued selling well.

Wilson noted that first-party software sales are making up a larger portion of the industry, and that's eating into the market share of Electronic Arts. However, it isn't just Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft that are whittling away at EA's hold on the game market. Wilson said the publisher has also lost ground to both Activision and Ubisoft "due to the relative quality of its next-generation games."

US NPD numbers are expected to be released on Thursday.