Analyst projects December game sales up 5 percent

While estimates about holiday hardware sales of the Wii, PlayStation 3, and Xbox 360 have already drawn attention, it's about time for analysts to shift their focus to end-of-year software sales and the industry-tracking NPD Group's December figures, expected to be released next week.

Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian this morning issued an NPD preview to investors, estimating that the group's numbers will show roughly 5 percent growth in US game sales for the month of December.

According to Sebastian, the growth will be "driven by incremental sales of next-generation software (Xbox 360, Wii, and PS3) and ongoing solid Sony PS2 and Nintendo DS game sales." His expected top sellers for the month include Call of Duty 3, Guitar Hero 2, WWE SmackDown! vs. RAW 2007, Gears of War, and The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess. Beyond Zelda, he expects Resistance: Fall of Man and Red Steel to turn in strong performances on the PS3 and Wii, respectively.

While Sebastian said his estimated December growth figure reflects "solid industry sales trends," it lags a little behind the rest of 2006. Software sales through November were up 6.7 percent over the first 11 months of 2005, Sebastian noted.

For the full year of 2006, Sebastian estimates industry game sales growth of 5.5 percent.