Analyst: 80 percent of launch PS3s to be high end

[UPDATE] Following a meeting with Sony management, Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian claims that the vast majority of PlayStation 3s will be $599.

When the Xbox 360 launched last fall, many prospective buyers were faced with a dilemma. The $399 premium pack--which included a wireless controller, a 20-gigabyte hard drive, and high-definition video cables--was almost always the first model to sell out. That forced gamers to buy the $299 "core" Xbox 360, which had no hard drive and a wired controller, to the chagrin of many.

Last week, Sony announced it would have only 400,000 units available during the US PlayStation 3 launch--around 74,000 more than the approximately 326,000 Xbox 360s that were sold in the five days after that console went on sale. Following the news, many wondered how many of those PS3s would be the $599 premium model, which comes with a 60GB hard drive and HDMI high-definition video output, and how many would be the $499 model, which sports only a 20GB hard drive.

Today, gamers got the first clue as to how the initial PS3 shipment will break down. "The split between premium (60GB) and core (20GB) units at US retail stores should be roughly 80/20 [percent]," Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian asserted in a note sent out on Monday morning. [UPDATE] Late on Monday night, Sebastian sent out an e-mail saying that the estimates were based on Lazard estimates and did not come from an official announcement by Sony.

That said, Sebastian's report followed a recent meeting he had with unidentified members of "Sony PlayStation management." He also reports that Sony plans "to ship another 800,000 units via air freight through the end of the year (1.2 million units total in calendar year '06) and another 1.2 million units for Japan." Sony officials also reportedly asserted that the company "can ramp monthly PS3 production to 1.2 million units by January due to anticipated improvements in Blu-Ray laser supplies," referring to the console's problematic next-gen media format.

Sebastian's report also predicted that Sony would unveil the PS3's online service at the Tokyo Game Show in two weeks and that it would be online at the same time the console debuts. "We believe services available at the PS3 launch are likely to include basic community features such as video, audio, and text chat, gamer rankings, as well as limited content downloads such as casual games and game updates." He also reported that he believes that Sony will leverage its media divisions to "full music and video downloads" available on the service.

The Lazard Capital Markets report also said that the PS3 would support Internet browsing, which is in line with Sony executives' claims that the console would have many functions heretofore relegated to the PC. However, Sebastian also said that, "[Sony] management indicated that full downloads of [PS3] console games will not be practical in the near term due to storage and bandwidth constraints."

223 Comments

  • jackdan869

    Posted Sep 19, 2006 3:10 am PT

    yeah they might laugh as they sh*t there pants. they have become so cocky about the whole situation and the fact that the ps3 is gonna sell for so much i think the price will drop 50 dollars regardless of the announcement. they also announced a spring 06 launch and had to eat those words too. sonys hurting right now with the laptop battery recall and now the most recent console bumble with fewer launch ps3's. It will be interesting to see what will happen.

  • rarson

    Posted Sep 18, 2006 4:56 pm PT

    "has anyone considered that they might lower the price right before launch just a bit to throw MS off?? just wondering what the take was on that theory?"

    No, they wouldn't. Because they are already losing enough money on each console. And they have already announced the launch price. And MS would LAUGH at an attempt to "throw them off" by cutting the price like that.

  • rarson

    Posted Sep 18, 2006 4:52 pm PT

    There is more to it than hard drive size. The percentage split of $599 consoles to $499 consoles should be 100:0 instead of 80:20, given that the only people in their right mind that would actually buy these are hardcore gamers who aren't going to want the crap $499 consoles anyway.

  • MasterAsh42

    Posted Sep 17, 2006 3:43 pm PT

    Having vastly more $399 360s than $299 360s would've been a great idea, given the large difference in pack-ins. . .

    But having 4 $599 PS3s to every 1 $499 PS3 when they're only discernable by hard drive size? If that happens, it'll be fine for analysts' pride, but bad for Sony.

  • bashmentkid

    Posted Sep 17, 2006 3:18 pm PT

    how come the xbox was slated for being so bulky and PC like in its functions by sony fanboys?

    how comes the PS3 looks so big and bulky and is closing the gap between console and pc functionality and is the best thing since sliced bread according to sony fanboys?

    most intriguing.

  • jackdan869

    Posted Sep 16, 2006 11:49 am PT

    yeah i didnt think it was likely either. but i did read that most consoles dont make money within there first few years of being out. but hey who knows, we will all find out at the same time.

  • lukefartedagain

    Posted Sep 16, 2006 10:56 am PT

    I think that's too much of a difference in models being produced. When retailers run out of the lower end, people will be upset that they can't get the cheaper one and will probably buy the higher end out of frustration. That, or they'll wait. It's a good business idea for Sony, but I think it will end up forcing people to pay more because they want a PS3 no matter what, even if they have to spend an unplanned $100.

    And jackdan869, I don't think that's too likely, but I guess we'll have to wait and see.

  • jackdan869

    Posted Sep 15, 2006 8:44 am PT

    has anyone considered that they might lower the price right before launch just a bit to throw MS off?? just wondering what the take was on that theory?

  • _Sam_

    Posted Sep 14, 2006 3:52 pm PT

    I'm getting the $599 one..... hopefully

  • 2243bearwallow

    Posted Sep 13, 2006 2:41 pm PT

    I LOVVE YOU SONY, this launch is gonna be so much more successful!!!

  • emptycow

    Posted Sep 13, 2006 4:32 am PT

    hey man its all about about the games a nd ps3 has them all the same games there launch games look like ps2 games how do i know iv seen them really you think sonys not going to have problems with frezzing or over heating this is the same sony that cant even get media files to run on the psp without you download software outside of sony like psp video 9 none of this was made by sony sonys going to have so many problems with the interface and downloads its not even going to be funny and if anybody here owns a psp you know how good sony is at updates just you wait for the greatness of sony ps3

  • emptycow

    Posted Sep 13, 2006 4:10 am PT

    J_Bigg why dont you buy a $100 hdmi cable for your $600 ps3 with its one year old xbox 360 games and its lies of 1080p no game on ps3 is runing in 1080p just the ps2 ports and there not giving the system away with an hdmi port for the simple fact almot none of the ps3 games run in 1080p

  • ZosoFan

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 9:30 pm PT

    Duh, thats because they realize no one is gonna buy their core model which is extremely dumbed down.

  • amaranth_aeon

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 5:35 pm PT

    GrimBee, just how many hands do you have? ^_^
    (I counted five.)

  • GrimBee

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 5:10 pm PT

    Hmm.. its like a weird move more than a GOOD or BAD one.

    On one hand you have the fact that many people would want that $600 version more than the other crappier one.

    And on another hand, its so expensive, having LESS of the cheaper one rules out those who would like to get a budget ps3.

    Its kind of like only releasing more PSP GIGAPACKS than VALUE PACKS on launch. Many people were hard pushed to get a psp ANYWAYS, and saw no need for that 1gb card. For sony to make the unnescessary and more expensive more avliable than the cheaper ones.. Its just a bit crazy.

    Coz on one hand you have if sony sell all consoles at $600 (even though they will be netting a loss even on the $600) they will make a bit more cash than the average ps3 would if it sold.

    But on the OTHER hand,you have more people buying 360s.. because of that $600 price..

    And on the OTHER hand...
    Well, you see how crazy it is right? I dont know how.. i dont know when.. but sony did indeed shoot itself in the foot this time.

  • G-Legend

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 3:06 pm PT

    That would be a smart move if they made 80% Premium more chance of me gettin the 60GB!

  • dragkill

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 2:00 pm PT

    "ragin-massaih I agree in your point of view. Good games have a good story, when will they learn, it is not all about graphics and tech."

    The funny thing about that, is when you're a teen, there's the 1/2 that care about " Omg this game looks so realistic, so it must be fun". I find it disappointing when people have this state of mind. Just cause a game looks cool, doesn't mean it can be fun. I remember back when i was young, game were played cause they were fun, not solely cause they looked cool. That's one of the main reasons why icons like Mario and Sonic exist, cause their games back in the days were fun, and that's why alot of people recognize them.

  • benri4761

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 1:18 pm PT

    J_Bigg you should learn how to speak before you make web postings. Or should I say it in a way you can understand...J_Bigg you should talk how before web I have make post.

  • NFunspoiler

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 12:43 pm PT

    We all know Sony has something up their sleeves. Just like how Nintendo probably has something spectacular to show on the 14/15th.

    Overall i think this analyst did a pretty good job, but im sure that anyone who was given enough data could have come to most of those conclusions.

  • J_Bigg

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 9:59 am PT

    say what you want but who has a gamecube??? ALMOST everybody has either ps2 or xbox. the 360 was rushed and really has no impressed me. (I do have by the way so i can talk.) Autolycus, you have a real good point. No upgrade which may force people to buy the high end. But 360 has no HDMI at all!!! No price on the hard drive and no gameplay as of yet on the HDD drive. Pretty much looks like rushed to me. ps3 will have it all at the start.

    I would also have to agree with amaranth_aeon. The hardwasre freezes and is not the reliable and I have the intercooler.

    Sony always have something up their sleeves and it will not take long to see what it is.

  • Dantes_Monkey

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 9:47 am PT

    no.1 PS2 has the best story driven games compared to the Xbox...which i belive had the fanboy slogan of "look at teh graphics"
    Also i think 80% is about right as hardcore will want the full fat package not the stripped won model.

  • Gamer6534

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 8:51 am PT

    Well at least it wont be a complete crapshoot of what PS3 you get.

  • finjadk

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 7:59 am PT

    ragin-massaih I agree in your point of view. Good games have a good story, when will they learn, it is not all about graphics and tech.

  • ragin_massaih

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 6:52 am PT

    AHHHH!!! All this talk about blue ray, hi-res, power, etc Its all too much for people to take in!!!! That's why the majority will end up buying the Wii as the games are put first, not the hardware! God!! E.g. what do u want for christmas darling? kid:I want a ps3. mom: Which one? etc etc what a joke! They should stop trying to copy MS and nintendo and just bring out a single model and we wouldn't have all this cr@p going on!! but the majority will bend over and take it still from Sony... shame

  • Mechakucha

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 6:39 am PT

    It's nice that they'll be up to 1.2 million units/month by Jan.

    Hopefully it'll be like the 360 - impossible to find for a while and then BAM, you see them in stores everywhere.

    Hopefully by then they'll have a minor hardware revision or two, working out (some of) the bugs that will undoubtedly plague the launch buyers.

  • Autolycus

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 6:36 am PT

    nato77 - "Well i guess you consider over 3/4 of the world fools."

    wow 3/4 of the world already have a Playstation 3?!(not two because its a completely different ballgame and strategy)


    and yes the low end version(rip off) does not have HDMI/HDCP, which means there is no need for blue ray because you cant get 1080p, which means they are forcing their customers to buy something they dont need. Plus, there's no 100 dollar upgrade...you have to purchase a whole new system. Sony is one of the most selfish companies on the planet, maybe ENRON being the only one more greedy. like it or not, its true regardless of your fanboyism or not

  • amaranth_aeon

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 6:21 am PT

    chikahiro94
    It's funny that people complain that the 360 "is just like a computer" when Sony has said the PS3 "is a computer."

    I think what people mean by "The 360 is just like a computer" is that it crashes/freezes as much as Win95... the only difference being that it has no BSOD. And I'm not mindlessly bashing MS: I have a 360, I love it, I don't store it in a cramped space, and yet I'm one of many, many people who think that the hardware is not reliable enough.
    Oh, and I bought it 5 months after it came out. My 360 wasn't part of the first, inevitably-flawed batch.

  • 99X

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 4:39 am PT

    Am I the only one that noticed this:
    The lack of HDMI output in the 20 GB model (as with any HD-DVD or Blu-Ray player lacking HDCP) could potentially cause problems with restricted output resolution on Blu-ray video. An ICT flag can be set by content producers, which forces non-HDCP video down to a pixel resolution of 960×540... I'd be a little angry if I bought the PS3 core and that happened to me.

  • nato77

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 4:23 am PT

    Quoted from grnidbandit
    "If you buy a PS3, you're just fools"

    Well i guess you consider over 3/4 of the world fools.

  • commmaando

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 3:30 am PT

    we will wait and what sony have up their sleeve

  • hart02

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 3:17 am PT

    You know Sony may have a trick up their sleeve. Either they have a good poker face or they're stupid. I’ll give them a month to confess. I seriously doubt they would let their game industry fall. They have other industry after all. They’re probably saving 1or many aces in the hole and making us the think they're failing. Like a controller with both motion sensing and rumble which are used separately and/or compatibility other products or something. We don’t know. Therefore we cannot rely on the media so heavily which only provide us scraps. We need to get the info ourselves and just because something has been confirmed does not make it true. We must sniff out, see through deception and think like our opponent. Quote the art of war. Many have fallen by it. Now as far info goes someone’s needs to infiltrate Sony and confirm this, thus allowing us to look at a different angle.

  • ewjim

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 2:08 am PT

    80%/20% - that's good I think, because... who needs cuted version?!

  • MSG-Deathscythe

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 1:46 am PT

    I wish they would just release ALL premium versions. The pricetag will be worth every penny because of the GAMES that will come out. It may not all come out on launch day but they will come. All posters who keep on pretending to be smart with the console specs, price justifications etc. Just shut up! You just show how ignorant you are. IT'S ALL ABOUT THE GAMES!

  • chikahiro94

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 1:41 am PT

    @vamroc
    Saturn = dual processor, not dual core. Dual core is better.

    Last I heard PS3 preorders aren't being done by the larger game stores because of the hell they went through trying to meet all the 360 preorders due to shortages. They have no desire to repeat that with the PS3 and the Wii - first come first serve... maybe they'll change that stance, but I haven't heard yet. Do you have any links to help verify your claims?

  • grnidbandit

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 1:26 am PT

    UltraWoody
    If you buy a PS3, you're just fools.

    Do you even understand what you're telling these people by buying their over-priced electronic? You're telling them that it is OK for them to charge you whatever they want. How ignorant can you people really be? Why support that garbage? Come on, think!----------------------------------------------------------------If you knew any better, new technology is always expensive, goes with everything, the latest tv models,mp3 players, pc's you name it, if its new its going to cost a bit more, so what by not buying something expensive its going to make them change their price? im sorry pal but not everyone has the same financial status, hey lets all stop buying Mercedes and BMW's maybe one day we can all own any of those cars, and the best part about it, we could do this on minimum wage salaries

  • vamroc

    Posted Sep 12, 2006 12:48 am PT

    Do you know why people can't preorder PS3s it's because Sony asked retailers to stop taking preorders about four months ago. Sony reccently sent out a memo to retailers telling them they have a two week window for preorders starting on October 31 and ending 11/14. So if you got on a list early on good for you. Oh and the PS3 isn't backward compatible because there is a PS2 motherboard that play's the PS2 & PS1 games. PS3 actually has about four exclusve titles that will be in stores on launch day. The other launchday titles will ship for both the PS3 and 360. Yeah by my count that's a baaad start if your trying to sell a system that over $600 dollars. Lets see I can spend 399 on a 360 and play 85-90% of the same games as a PS3. Or buy a PS3 for over $600 which won't even ship with HD cables. So what if it has Blu Ray supposedly after three or four years the dye undergoes slow chemical changes that cause it to flake off the disc and destroy the game. God forebid if it starts to flake while your playing.

  • vamroc

    Posted Sep 11, 2006 11:01 pm PT

    It seems I've heard this speach before when the Saturn was being launched and we all know how that ended. For those that don't remember it was Sega's duel core Sony killer that fell on it's own sword. It was a better overall system with one major problem. It was soooo hard to develope games for. According to a rumor I heard a Vurtua Fighter 2 programer jumped to his death after a solid month of daily system crashes.

  • icemancell

    Posted Sep 11, 2006 9:41 pm PT

    good!!!, if ya gonna spend 500 bucks what difference would it be to add another 100.

  • e1viento

    Posted Sep 11, 2006 9:34 pm PT

    Wow.

    Just wow. I just have to give a little giggle to all the uniformed posters here. *hee-hee* .. there. I giggled.

    Now seriously, if you think that large corporations will hold their end of a promise... It may be likely that they will, but 99.9% of the time they do not. I am not surprised by this. Still, I can't wait to get my hands on the $600.00 model. Flame me, call me crazy, I don't care. I am a fanboy of all consoles. I just love games, be it on the Wii, 360, PS3, PSP, DS, PC... I don't care.

    My job affords me the luxury of these items, and I am entitled to spend my hard earned cash the way I choose (unless my GF wants something that she deserves). And no, I am not rich, I am just... well off.

  • robfield

    Posted Sep 11, 2006 8:33 pm PT

    Meh, I'd rather get the low end model thankyou. Looks like I might be in the minority this time.

  • ledgic_13

    Posted Sep 11, 2006 8:12 pm PT

    im getting the premium ps3, so im ready to go!!

  • chikahiro94

    Posted Sep 11, 2006 7:50 pm PT

    @Solidesnake2004
    Why not? Keeping the hot power-brick outside the system means the PS3 itself will require less cooling. If it was located internally, then we'd be revisiting the heat problems of the original Playstation. Besides, its much easier to replace a bad brick (for them and for you) than it is to replace a whole PS3.

  • SoullessL3

    Posted Sep 11, 2006 7:38 pm PT

    THIS IS GOOD NEWS!! ^_^
    (For me, anyway..)

  • Solidesnake2004

    Posted Sep 11, 2006 7:37 pm PT

    My Response: I just hope Sony doesn't stick the PS3 with a AC Adapter the size of a Small Chiuaua (like the 360).

  • peacenutman

    Posted Sep 11, 2006 7:37 pm PT

    That's good, so that means 80% consumers would find out they got better deal instead of being ripped off like other 20%

  • alberto2045

    Posted Sep 11, 2006 7:35 pm PT

    thats kool, jusk get the system out as fast as u can

  • nintendorocks

    Posted Sep 11, 2006 7:28 pm PT

    I no longer take what any analyst has to say seriously anymore....

  • jeebs213

    Posted Sep 11, 2006 6:20 pm PT

    finally a smart move by Sony

  • chikahiro94

    Posted Sep 11, 2006 6:10 pm PT

    It's funny that people complain that the 360 "is just like a computer" when Sony has said the PS3 "is a computer." Besides, the PS3 is using what's basically a customized GeForce 7800 (unlike the custom made graphic chipset ATI made for MS), but you don't hear anyone complaining about that. And Cell is related to the Xenon CPU in the 360 (both are part of the POWER/PowerPC family), but neither side brings that up (lets not forget that Xenon is NOT made by Intel and is not x86 compatible). And of course they both have harddrives (except the 360 core), but again, not really mentioned.

    If ANYTHING is "computer-like" on the 360 it is the fact its using DirectX and XNA and the PS3 doesn't - not that it can't technically (espeically with a modified GeForce), but because it's a competitor's product.

    Hmm... both have CPU's from IBM, both have graphic chipsets from PC graphic card designers (Intel and ATI), both have storage (harddrives)... wow - they're both computers! It's a silly criticism to make, and the most important part of Windows, OS X and Linux based computers (applications) aren't being announced for either system. Unless you happen to know that Word, Open Office, or Photoshop will be available on a console sometime soon...

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