Another analyst predicts PS3 delay

FBR's Shawn Milne says Sony will definitely miss spring Japanese launch, perhaps summer as well; US might not see unit until 2007.

Conventional wisdom increasingly indicates that a delay of the PlayStation 3 from its originally intended spring launch date is all but inevitable. Last month a Merrill Lynch report predicted a 6-12-month delay for the system, followed shortly thereafter by a reported Sony acknowledgement that a PS3 delay was a possibility if the supply of parts to make the console lagged.

Yet more aspersions were cast on Sony's purported spring PS3 launch today, as Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Shawn Milne issued an industry update to investors saying Sony's clearly going to miss its spring window. He added that the Japanese release might miss the summer as well, and North American gamers may not be playing the system in 2006 at all.

"More supply chain data suggest the possibility of a launch delay," Milne wrote. "According to our semiconductor research team, there are further indications that the Sony PS3 launch may be late (although there remains significant confusion on the timing of launches by geography)."

Milne also noted that Sony apparently did not give retailers a release date on the PS3 at its recent Destination PlayStation event as further evidence of a slip in the schedule.

According to Milne, a North American PS3 release in the first quarter of 2007 would cause weakness in the industry and a poor fourth quarter for 2006. However, he projects a sell out for the system even if it does launch in early 2007, and a muted long-term impact on the industry from the delay. Unlike other analysts, Milne didn't offer a prediction on the console's price, which has been targeted anywhere from $399 to $799.

When the system launches, Milne says Electronic Arts will likely get the biggest boost of the publishers, as it has "8-12 titles planned for the PS3 launch." Previously announced PS3 titles from the publisher include Fight Night Round 3, Medal of Honor: Airborne, Def Jam 3, and a next-gen Madden game.

151 Comments

  • amkalfus

    Posted Mar 11, 2006 3:14 pm PT

    That sucks... but I'll still be waiting for it. Delays don't bug me too much...

  • jaefrmbk2k

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 1:58 pm PT

    Hi, I'm from the year 3000 and I couldn't help but notice that some of you are in need of some consolation so here goes: i remember waiting for the PS3, that was 1000 years ago....seems like only yesterday...good times, good times...to help pass the time i bought a 2005 Black Tribal Honda CBR and taught mahself to ride......sure i ended up in ICU but that was AFTER the release of the PS3. And what a wonderful hospital stay it was.....sure i had broken hands but that didn't stop me from trying to play it with every extremity imaginable....sure i could only play very early in the morning, or when the sexy nurse was around-but i wouldn't trade my experiences with my PS3 for anything. it's worth the wait ppl...it is so worth the wait

  • vamroc

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 1:43 pm PT

    Update...as of today an 06 PS3 fall launch in japan can be confirmed. Which would make a US of spring 07 very likely. However Sony may still wish for a chritmas launch in America and delay untill winter 07 simply becuase they think demand will still be there. But we all know better 360's will have a strangle hold on the industry, Revolution could be the new I Pod, and Sony might have a shot at giong bankrupt in 08

  • HardCor1981

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 1:09 pm PT

    We all want this system, but timing isn't everything. The most important aspect of the PS3's sustained growth is its price point. If the PS3 enters the market any higher than $450 we will likely not see the PS3 command the videogame industry as it has in the past. There simply won't be enough people willing to spend that kind of money on a system...and if people don't make the PS3 a part of their home, fewer game developers will make games for Sony's system. And for all those people out there who want to buy the PS3 as a cheaper alternative to a blu-ray player...if people don't make this system popular then Hollywood might just go with Toshiba and blue-ray will become another betamax.

  • gtimandan

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 12:21 pm PT

    I hate Sony cannot bring their machine out by their targetted date, but with all of the new technology that's going under the hood, there should be little surprise from anyone. When it does arrive, I'm sure it will be the graphical mac-daddy, if that's what is most important to you is eye candy. I'll always choose substance [ahem, Nintendo] over style [Sony], but will still get a PS3 after a few years have gone by and the truly great games for it will start to emerge. This delay, however, could perhaps been avoided if Sony would have chosen to create a dedicated gaming rig instead of an electronic Swiss Army Knife [yawn]. Give me great games, not niche, useless & trivial built-in gizmos. I'm still holding out for Sony to released a whittled-down PS3 that is pure gaming bliss w/o all the excess [expensive!] fat that's currently being crammed into the PS3, and at a lower price point. C'mon Sony, you can do it!

  • rbarahona

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 12:08 pm PT

    I think that Sony can delay the PS3 as long as they want. I'm sure that they are trying to polish all the demos and games so they can show the best things from the PS3. By delaying the console, they can have more time to manufacture more units and avoid the problems Microsoft faced with the 360. I'm sure that by E3 we will have a clearer picture about the future.

  • ff7cloudking

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 11:57 am PT

    I don't care when the PS3 comes out. As long as it is as good as I know it'll be. Also, I agree with the people that said that the analysist's don't know much. They've been wrong about way too many things to get this right.

  • dillon_o4

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 10:59 am PT

    SURPRISE!!!! wait.... we already knew that? o omg yeah we knew that DURR Sony u are stupid for lieing and and why? cause ur stupid, and wanted to take sales from the 360 when they did themselves by not having enough to purchase, well M$ and P$3 you are both stupid and couldn't come through with what eather of u said so lie it up cause no one is listening

  • mikekare79

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 10:46 am PT

    No surprise here! I'm already playing next gen on an American system, and it rocks! Why wait?

  • rowlodge

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 10:24 am PT

    what shall become of all the games out for ps3 this year?

  • Timstuff

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 10:18 am PT

    Since when have ANALists ever hit the mark when it comes to predicting Sony? By thier logic, PSP shouldn't have come out until November '05 and would have cost $450. They don't know jack about anything.

  • caution3

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 10:14 am PT

    i don't want a 360 but i need the newer games, thank a lot Sony for letting me down i had high hopes for you. and the winner of the war goose to MS.

  • Pwnocchio

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 10:06 am PT

    This is for Autolycus... Personally, I bought a PS2 on the day of its launch, 6 years ago, and I haven't had a single problem with it (and this is after using it as my primary DVD player fort 4 years). Now, I'm a serious gamer, and I play nearly everything that comes out on every system. That is to say, my PS2 has seen its share of use, and you know what's funny? It's still ticking, just fine. A first generation PS2. You know when I bought my XBox? November of 2004. Know when it broke? 1 month ago. Anywho, people are freaking out about how Spring is now... well technically, it doesn't start til later this month. If you recall, last year, MS hadn't said anything about the 360, until there was only about 3-4 months left until release. Until we hear anything from Sony, speculation isn't going to help anybody. Besides, the 360, while launching sooner, has had nothing to play until this month, which is why I'm finally buying one. Hopefully, a delayed launch might mean that this launches with an incredible launch line up.

  • sam20vt

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 9:58 am PT

    ATTENTION EVERYONE--- i am a dj for my local radio station and i polled my listeners over a month ago they all said the same thing this guy did and most of my listeners are stoners, drunks and punk kids. if only they knew how much they could get paid for being an analyst.

  • ReyWing

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 9:30 am PT

    Fact 1: Sony did not give any details on PS2 at Destination Playstation.
    Fact 2: "A Sony spokesperson is quoted in the article [Sankei Web] as saying, 'The highest quality picture is vital to the PS3. There is a possibility of delay [to the launch] if delivery of parts is delayed.'"
    Fact 3: It's SPRING already! Last time I checked Spring is from March-June. They have four months to get the system out which they haven't released any pertinent information/ads about yet (price, games, release date, supply, locations). Maybe at E3 but that'll only leave one month to get everything out.
    Fact 4: BluRay players are going to come out soon .... . . . at $1000! However, BR drives seem to be a lot lower ... $500.

    Anyone wanna add more facts?

    My Realization: PS3 will be delayed and it's going to cost an arm and a leg. Looking on the bright side, I will have saved up enough money (hopefully) and the launch games will be polished enough and diff. enough from the 360 games to warrant it's purchase.

  • umaque

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 9:12 am PT

    WHAT THE HELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    F**K

  • skitzocyko

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 7:51 am PT

    HAHAHAHAAAA

  • val3k

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 7:24 am PT

    I guess no ps3 in a while. long live msxbox360

  • Star2020

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 7:01 am PT

    I think Sony is going to release new information at E3, I 'll wait and see what Sony is going to say.

  • dru26

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 6:54 am PT

    At this rate will E3 even lead to an unveiling of a release date and price for the U.S. market. Sony will keep stringing us along with tidbits of info, to try and keep 360 sales down.

  • frontier49

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 6:46 am PT

    Sony: "Blah blah blah. Blah we'll do what ever we want. We'll charge whatever we want. Blah blah $$$ blah. In fact, just send us money."

  • Autolycus

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 6:23 am PT

    it'll break within a year. Im not a sony fan boy...i am a consumer fan boy since i work @ gamestop and have seen HUNDRED get toppled by bad quality. Oh yeah and I used to repair TV's and pretty much everything sony made (along with other manufactures as well)

    Its your money, if you think PS3 is going to make ya happy, go for it. Just don't expect it to last long(2 years TOPS)

  • ufopuller

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 6:05 am PT

    Oh, There's a shock!

  • robeyre1

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 5:50 am PT

    Glad I got my Xbox 360 the day it came out in november, instead of waiting around for PS3.

  • only_dirtydog

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 5:48 am PT

    XBOX came out around a year after PS2, and technically it was a better console it just lacked games, but this time around PS3 has had longer to develop and you can bet your a$$ it'll have the games to match the console!!

    PS3 will out-do the 360 IMO too many loyal customers that know Sony will produce the goods.....look at the delay as its a good thing, no-one wants a half finished console.

  • Sandman100

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 5:04 am PT

    That Sony for you. It good for Microsoft and Nintendo. But I wish it would be out at the end of the year. But I'm not going to pay 900 dollars for it.

  • chrisdojo

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 4:57 am PT

    given sony's track record.......DUH!

  • jakeboudville

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 4:25 am PT

    interesting.......

  • ewjim

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 4:19 am PT

    **** this ANALyst, i don't believe in what they predict anyway! I only believe in FACT's...

  • jams_shop

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 3:43 am PT

    Blah, blah, blah, blah.........................

  • amogley

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 3:28 am PT

    as soon as they confirm the delay .. I wonder if we will see a sharp increase in sales of the XBox360?

  • KiLLer_ba

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 1:33 am PT

    It's all for the best, Its just a whole year you have to wait.

  • boolow407

    Posted Mar 7, 2006 1:06 am PT

    Well said thefbz...Everyone can actually count this as a blessing. This gives them time to work the bugs out, get a decent launch line up of games, AND like thefbz said, parts are inevitably going down in price by the day. It may cost 900 to manufacture today, but it wont by spring 07 (my predicted launch time for US). In the meantime, I will enjoy my 360, pick up a Revo when that launches, then pick up a PS3 at a REASONABLE price.

  • TryMe01

    Posted Mar 6, 2006 11:16 pm PT

    anyone can predict, stupid!

  • thefbz

    Posted Mar 6, 2006 11:11 pm PT

    I rather have the system during Winter 2006 for $499 than for $699 in two weeks (Spring 2006).

  • jefalogs

    Posted Mar 6, 2006 6:20 pm PT

    History repeats it's self...

  • lion2447

    Posted Mar 6, 2006 6:15 pm PT

    Even if there is a delay (which won't be a surprise) there is an upside to all of it. When it does come out there should be more launch titles to select from (since companies will have had plenty of time to develop them) and there should be more systems at launch, since Sony is putting all of this time into the manufacturung process (which I hope they plan to do). Also they could put in the time to better test the system to ensure it works as it should with no disc read errors (PS2) or any overheating issues (Xbox 360).

  • jimbo102671

    Posted Mar 6, 2006 6:11 pm PT

    And I'm seeing claims about killer PS3 launch titles. Who's got odds that the first PS3/Rev games won't look much better than today's PS2/GCN games? (Besides, isn't FN:R3 already out on X360? R4 might be a better choice for PS3.)

  • supersim10007

    Posted Mar 6, 2006 5:58 pm PT

    by the time the ps3 gets here well all be out buying xbox 3's

  • grnidbandit

    Posted Mar 6, 2006 5:57 pm PT

    everyone keeps mentioning about the release date and price,all that can wait, no one has mentioned that the article also mentions 8-12 titles from EA on launch day. I cant imagine what the other publishers have planned for the ps3. someone here said that ask any developer and they will tell you the ps3 is hard to develop for,thats not true at all actually the only thing a developer has complained about is getting their dev kits late. I was going to buy a 360 but after seeing what they have planned for it, I think its better waiting for a ps3 instead. online infrastructure does not really matter to me especially if i have to pay a monthly service fee for it,unlike some people in this world do for god knows what. sony is holding their cards back because they are going to release all the info in a big way, that means they are not going to sit down with gamespot or some analyst giving them all the info, remember last year's e3 was the first time we even got a glimpse of the ps3. after playing Black this weekend on the ps2, 360 has made only a tiny leap as far as graphics,just too bad not alot of games that look good as black are on the ps2,so i can expect sony to make the huge leap we all have been dieing to see, i have alot of respect for nintendo,but playing old school games over a broadband connection is not considered next gen to me,but to alot of people on here it does.

  • jpogge

    Posted Mar 6, 2006 5:34 pm PT

    Jeez sony at this rate the 360 will be a console of the past and Microsoft will have unveiled a new next-next gen console.

  • jimbo102671

    Posted Mar 6, 2006 5:20 pm PT

    Somehow, I'm not suprised, as Sony seems to be taking it on the chin as of late. The X360 (while it's not done so hot in Japan) has been picking up steam. Plus, Nintendo is not a company to count out. If they wait too much time after the Rev hits, they may lose the lead they currently enjoy.

  • tatu2004

    Posted Mar 6, 2006 5:11 pm PT

    i can wait for the PS3.....

  • jimbo102671

    Posted Mar 6, 2006 5:01 pm PT

    [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

  • drakron

    Posted Mar 6, 2006 4:59 pm PT

    BluRay offers higher capacity and its anti-piracy messures its that is able to update then, not that "it takes 90% of the disk" ... the ignorance (or sould I say hate?) of some people here.

    And compared to the Xbox 360 that will never be able to escape having a DVD drive, we already have PS2 game with 2 DVDs so enjoy your "please insert disk 2 to continue" that I stop seeing a long time ago (besides the occasional PS2 game).

    E3 will settle things over all this rumors, the PS3 might not have a date just yet but its not as if they cancelled the console, also even a spring launch would mean Japan first, neither America or Europe was unlikely going to see the console for at least 3 months after the release in Japan ... its not as if most of you were not looking at a July launch anyway.

  • dynastyfan

    Posted Mar 6, 2006 4:47 pm PT

    i will belive it when sony confirms it

  • NeoJedi

    Posted Mar 6, 2006 4:39 pm PT

    Damn that is too bad... the industry will feel it if it is delayed to 2007.

  • Binpo

    Posted Mar 6, 2006 4:36 pm PT

    i can wait...will never get a 360

  • BassForever2

    Posted Mar 6, 2006 4:34 pm PT

    I would rather the PS3 come out in 2010 with no flaws and play perfectly then come out in 2006 and have another 360 fiasco all over again.

  • bizsumpark182

    Posted Mar 6, 2006 4:33 pm PT


    KingMyro
    Yeah blue ray will be great...if you dont mind 10 percent of the disk being used for the movie/game and 90 percent filled with anti piracy software. Wow what a deal! I hope blue ray goes the way of the beta tape. Not only that but with some of the nastiness Sony is considering (like making blue ray discs encoded to only work on your system, goodbye rentals, goodbye sellng used games...oh and if your system breaks......?????) and the fact that Sony may be charging 700 dollars per console, I hope sony goes the way of sega and becomes history.
    __________________________________________________________

    You have to remember though, this is all RUMOR and SPECULATION.

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