[QUOTE="RationalAtheist"]I like it!
How about this for P3:
P3. Religions posit a story/myth/legend to the effect of directing behaviour towards social cohesion.
I think it might encompass all religions then.
domatron23
Yeah I think the reason why I put P3 the way I did was to single out God. Your way makes the argument apply to all claims of religion though which I think is fitting. Here's a reformulation.
P1. If a story/myth/legend carries with it some means of directing behaviour towards one end or another it is probable that the story/myth/legend in question is a lie. (i.e. Plato's noble lie or GLaDOS' promise of cake).
P2. The more valuable the end the more probable the lie behind it.
P3. Religions posit a story/myth/legend to the effect of directing behaviour towards social cohesion.
P4. Social cohesion is highly valuable.
Therefore: It is highly probable that the stories/myths/lengends of religions are lies.
A deist might look at that and say "well what does that have to do with the existence of God"? Perhaps we also need a version that specifically singles out God.
As others have pointed out, P1 has no support. At the very least you need to change the wording from "probable" to "possible".
Furthermore, P2 is flawed in that it offers no way for us to know the relationship between probability of a lie and value of a story. While I think most would agree that P2 is logical, that's all it is. To put my point in an example: How much more likely is a lie between two stories, one of which will get the story teller $100 and the other which will get the story teller $200?
The overall flaw in your argument is that it assumes all religions are either real or were consciously fabricated by one person or a relatively small group of people with intent to deceive. In reality what we find is that religions mutate and evolve, and that humans are naturally predisposed to supernatural beliefs (that latter point is supported by neuroscience studies on religious beliefs).
Finally, this argument only works with religions that espouse moral codes. It does nothing to consider religions that merely believe in spirits or other supernatural entities but that have no central dogma. Nature worship falls under this category.
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