NX not to be sold at a loss. Nintendoomed or Smart?

literally means nothing until we get an actual price point.

@techhog89: I'm just speculating. After the WiiU, I won't be buying a Nintendo console again, not til it's gen is over and I know what it got at least.

The "powerful console @ 400" thing would be best from a core gamer point of view but I agree that's unlikely.

Bit random about the "gen 9" stuff, of course the buffed versions of Xbone and PS4 aren't that. Who said they were? They will be playing all the biggest and best 3rd party games at 1080P/60fps though, so even if Nintendo DOES get some 3rd party for once, they'll yet again be the worst place for them. Remember what a joke games like COD and Dead Rising were on Wii? Yeah, that again. That's a problem.

I guess I don't see the point of releasing yet another underpowered system, that's going to repeat the exact same mistakes of Wii and WiiU all over again.

Or a power supply.

@Bread_or_Decide: xbox1_performance ? Seriously?

Or a controller!

@techhog89 said:

@emgesp said:

@techhog89 said:

@emgesp: They would need to disable like half the GPU to get power consumption that low, even with Polaris. It would be noticeably weaker than XB1. Unless they're aiming for under $250, I don't see that happening, especially if the CPU power leak is accurate (and it would be a first for that leaker if not). That would also mean paying for a ton of wasted die space or a custom GPU. Nintendo likes power efficiency, but if they were willing to pay extra for it Wii U would have been 28nm so they could have matched Wii's power consumption. So, I highly doubt that they'll go the extra mile just to get power consumption that low, and if they do want it that low it'll be 28nm and closer to Wii U than Xbox One.

Additionally, one of the points brought up by Kimishima when talking about making a profit was leveraging the weak yen to their advantage, which means that the profit is unlikely to be super high and/or the primary target of this hardware is not Japan. We shouldn't just assume that Nintendo learned nothing from Wii U at all besides "$350 is bad." That's a safe assumption, but it could be very wrong.

I would be very surprised if the NX consumed more than 45 watts. It's just not very Nintendo like. You also have to take into account that Iwata was heavily involved in the development of the NX, so we can't assume Nintendo made significant changes to the NX's design since his passing. All the specs were probably already set in stone while he was still alive.

IT would be extremely hard to hit such a low target. You're also completely ignoring the part I mentioned about it potentially not having an optical drive, which means more TDP headroom in the same space. It's size that Iwata was concerned about with Wii and Wii U; the power consumption was a consequence of that size. My 60W estimate would also still be extremely low and "Nintendo like" imo. I'm sure that if we were having this conversation about Wii U based on Wii, you would have looked at Wii's sub-20W power consumption and said that there was no way that Wii U would use more than 25W. Now, look at this:

See how much space the ODD takes up? a 2.5" HDD would take up less than half of that, so you could pretty much double the size of the heatsink and still have an HDD and game card slot. The ODD likely uses more power than an HDD too, so I'd say that it would only need something along the lines of 55W in the end. Does that sound insane to you? The Wii U's power adapter is 75W, so they wouldn't even need to use a much bigger one.

Then I guess the question is how much of the 35 watts of the Wii U's power draw comes from the disc drive and how much would be freed up if they switched to flash memory cards.

@emgesp: For normal companies, its estimated 15-25w for dvd drive and 1.5-5w idle. For Nintendo itd most likely be 1w and .01 while idle. The whole Nintendo Wii U is .5 at idle which is the recommend spec for all electronics.

Wii U can stream Netflix using only 32 watts. That only costs $0.64 a month and $7.73 a year.

The selling-at-a-loss strategy works, but is only smart when you know it will lead to a large market share and a lot of software sales to recoup the loss. Nintendo has no evidence at the moment that they will get very far in one "generation" if you want to call the NX that. They may feel that they need to play it safer because while this could, hopefully, be the start of an upswing for them (assuming it's not total junk from both a software and hardware perspective) they can have little confidence in how profitable the overall package will be at this point.

Now, my opinion is that if it's a traditional console package then they should have taken the gamble and gone for a loss per unit. Go big and be aggressive if you want that market, Nintendo. EXCEPT... we aren't privy to anything at this time about the machine, and the hints we've had suggest that it may not be a traditional console package at all. Which, again, would mean a high level of uncertainty on their part about how it will perform in the wild.

So, you think that starting next year, PS4 and XB1 games will be terrible and most people will basically be forced to upgrade or get a bad experience? I don't think that this is even remotely comparable. That was a generational leap, an order of magnitude difference in power. This is barely a quarter or that gap.

@emgesp said:

@techhog89 said:

@emgesp said:

@techhog89 said:

@emgesp: They would need to disable like half the GPU to get power consumption that low, even with Polaris. It would be noticeably weaker than XB1. Unless they're aiming for under $250, I don't see that happening, especially if the CPU power leak is accurate (and it would be a first for that leaker if not). That would also mean paying for a ton of wasted die space or a custom GPU. Nintendo likes power efficiency, but if they were willing to pay extra for it Wii U would have been 28nm so they could have matched Wii's power consumption. So, I highly doubt that they'll go the extra mile just to get power consumption that low, and if they do want it that low it'll be 28nm and closer to Wii U than Xbox One.

Additionally, one of the points brought up by Kimishima when talking about making a profit was leveraging the weak yen to their advantage, which means that the profit is unlikely to be super high and/or the primary target of this hardware is not Japan. We shouldn't just assume that Nintendo learned nothing from Wii U at all besides "$350 is bad." That's a safe assumption, but it could be very wrong.

I would be very surprised if the NX consumed more than 45 watts. It's just not very Nintendo like. You also have to take into account that Iwata was heavily involved in the development of the NX, so we can't assume Nintendo made significant changes to the NX's design since his passing. All the specs were probably already set in stone while he was still alive.

IT would be extremely hard to hit such a low target. You're also completely ignoring the part I mentioned about it potentially not having an optical drive, which means more TDP headroom in the same space. It's size that Iwata was concerned about with Wii and Wii U; the power consumption was a consequence of that size. My 60W estimate would also still be extremely low and "Nintendo like" imo. I'm sure that if we were having this conversation about Wii U based on Wii, you would have looked at Wii's sub-20W power consumption and said that there was no way that Wii U would use more than 25W. Now, look at this:

See how much space the ODD takes up? a 2.5" HDD would take up less than half of that, so you could pretty much double the size of the heatsink and still have an HDD and game card slot. The ODD likely uses more power than an HDD too, so I'd say that it would only need something along the lines of 55W in the end. Does that sound insane to you? The Wii U's power adapter is 75W, so they wouldn't even need to use a much bigger one.

Then I guess the question is how much of the 35 watts of the Wii U's power draw comes from the disc drive and how much would be freed up if they switched to flash memory cards.

An ODD should use something like 10W, while a card slot uses less than 1W.

By the way, about the specs being set in stone from when Iwata died: Wii and Wii U both had major late-stage spec changes due to Iwata aiming too high in power for form factor. Many of the positive rumors we heard about Wii and Wii U were true, but were changed a year or so before launch because Iwata chose a size before settling on specs. Take that as you will.

They could add a gimmick that costs more than the console itself.

Smart, business should always make profit...selling at a loss is just silly...that's my stance, but we need to know how much it will cost first. :P Sounds like they are gearing up for a big launch in March 2017...hope its true. :P

Makes sense. Its very unlikely for any of the console manufacturers to take a loss on any future hardware given the huge losses incurred on the 360/PS3 and the amount of time it took to turn a profit as a result. Not to mention Ninty doesn't operate like that.

That said, I fully expect the NX to be an underpowered turd. Seriously, WTF is up with Nintendo and their absurd TDP standards? Its a fucking game console. As a consumer I don't give a shit about low power consumption. I want a console with specs that are appropriate for the time of its release. A console with PS4 level muscle ( or perhaps lower? Oh lawdy) releasing in 2017 is a joke.

The NX better have some compelling ass software for it to spark my interest if my assumptions are accurate. Wii U 2.0 incoming.

I don't see Nintendo needing to play those games that Sony and MS do basically arms-racing each other into a game of bankruptcy chicken. Nintendo can thrive off of their first party line-up... now, that being said they need to actually make some decent first party games that justify buying a console just for that purpose. They really didn't for the Wii U, they did at first then withdrew support early. So, on the hardware end, no, don't lose money to make money later. On game development end, focus on that, if it costs them at first to establish an arsenal of titles, let them bleed a little, but that's what's gonna bring the gamers, not the power to play the same multiplatform games that both the PS4 and Xbox One can already play.

When have they sold anything at a loss?

By the way, this is the quote:

Next, about how we are looking at cost, we are not thinking of launching the hardware at a loss. When Wii U was launched, the yen was very strong. I am assuming that situation will not repeat itself. Selling at a loss at launch would not support the business, so we are keeping that mind in developing NX.

The bold is something to take note of. For that to even be worth mentioning, it has to be pretty damn close to breaking even. Currently:

1 USD = 106.20 JPY

1 GBP = 155.97 JPY

1 EUR = 122.57 JPY

In November 2012:

1 USD = 82.35 JPY

1 GBP = 131.99 JPY

1 EUR = 106.70 JPY

Pretty massive. Wii U might have been sold for a profit at launch if the yen were this weak in 2012.

They might not bundle it with an HDD. If that's the case they could save a chunk of money on the hardware and with a die shrink and different fabrication process they could absolutely hit PS4's power or better for 299$.

After all, they cannot dramatically cut the price of the PS4 if the cost of the production of the hardware hasn't changed. It likely hasn't as they still use the same fabrication process and the same materials.

Thats the issue , they are not selling and yet another console is out of business way earlier than competition , the 4th in a row since N64. So they better change something before 5th in a row become a reality

Some consoles sell at a loss, some don't. We can't really predict their success with this information.

Now that's just crazy talk.

@PurpleMan5000: Thats what i thought at first, then i had a day-dream of buying a NX and picking out my own personal Nintendo character controller. I was like, yeah, ill take 2 of the pink Kirby controllers.

A console doesn't necessarily have to be sold at a loss to be powerful enough. If their price is $399 and they make good use of the $399 (i.e. not put a stupid tablet controller in there) - then it could be plenty powerful.

Of course if the console is $299, and the hardware teardowns indicate $150 in hardware value... then I guess we'll know Nintendo just haven't learned. There is nothing that says it's necessary (or even remotely a good idea) to actually take a LOSS on the hardware, even at launch. Though one would think if the hardware were to hold up for the long term, it probably wouldn't start out much better than break even.

PS4 wasn't sold at a lost and most likely the same for NEO.

http://www.extremetech.com/gaming/155521-playtation-4-sony-announces-the-ps4-wont-be-sold-at-loss

GPU chip sizes

Xbox 360 = 180 mm^2

Xbox One = 160 mm^2

PS3 = 258 mm^2

PS4 = 212 mm^2

NEO = 232 mm^2

PS4 was profitable by removing IBM and NVIDIA.

For "bang per buck", PS4 is the standard to beat.

Yup, you don't think before you type. Please, I beg of you all mighty god of gaming, show me where Nintendo has said ANYTHING about the NX and it's controller.

People always talk about console specs. People draw conclusions on smartphones based on running an application to determine numbers. All I see on these phones is sloppy software development. We are yet to see any real advancements in game design, and the ones that have happened are on nintendo.

It's smart if they can get the power developers want. If Nintendo is cutting corners in ways that will alienate developers so that they can make a profit on every system, then no.

You keep making stuff up. I never said that either. They'll still be the worst versions though. You don't see that as a problem? Gamers didn't want PS2 ports on Wii, they didn't want 360 ports on WiiU, and they won't want Xbone ports on NX. Why can't Nintendo for ONCE be on the cutting edge, getting the best versions?

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2427757,00.asp Yes, they were.

Nintendo is selling the wii u for 300 the same price as the x1. The ps4 is selling for 350 if nintendo makes a console with similar specs it will cost 450 or more.

@no-scope-AK47: If Wii U didnt have the Gamepad, they could sell it for as much as PS3 sells for. $199-250. O wells, heres to NX.

Pachter says they'll be fine, so basically they're f*cked.

@sonic_spark: You're right. It was insignificant though and PS4 was profitable less than 6 months later. Kimishima's wording implies a very small profit margin or even breaking even. People acting like Nintendo is expecting huge profit on the hardware are jumping the gun.

@locopatho: Because a $450 console is very risky.

@techhog89:

Is a $400 one? In 2017, surely they could make an absolute beast for that much, the match of PS4/Xbone Plus Versions?

That'd be the most expensive Nintendo console ever, but X360 and PS4 sold pretty well at that level. Gamers ARE willing to pay that, if they feel the console is good enough.

@locopatho: No, since they're not selling at a loss. Also, you said that you wanted them to have the most powerful console.

@techhog89:

You're telling me a cost price of $395 for a sale price of $400, in 2017, couldn't make a beast, getting the best versions of 3rd party games? Why not? We've already agreed that the Plus versions of PS4 and Xbone won't be 9th gen systems. Why can't 9th gen NX beat them?

As I said I probably won't be getting NX for years, if it all, so I'm just speculating. I don't see why they'd just repeat the Wii and WiiU's mistakes though.

@locopatho: Well, the first problem is that they may not have even seen these upgrades coming in time, and if that's the case then it wouldn't have made sense to be more than 30% faster than PS4 since that would just mean increasing the cost for little benefit (third parties would not put in extra effort, and first party games don't need more power).

Second, the initial plan was to launch this year. I don't think that they'll change the specs much due to the delay.

Third, Nintendo isn't a garunteed success like MS or Sony, so they may not get as good of a deal.

Fourth, the gimmick. Face it, there's gonna be one, and it'll add something to the cost, even if it's small.

Finally, Nintendo knows that a high price can't work until they have good enough third-party support for the console to stand on its own. If they make an expensive Nintendo box, they'll be in the red for years. Just having a powerful console won't fix third-party support overnight. Nintendo isn't going to bet the farm and become dependent on third parties like Sony and Microsoft with a mid-gen console. That's suicide. It only makes sense as a last-ditch effort before going third-party, and contrary to popular belief Nintendo definitely will not be going third-party if NX fails (or at least they will not develop games for PS5 and XB11). People say it'll happen every time, but it never happens. You people need to accept that.

I don't have an issue with Nintendo making a profit on every NX sold, but if they sell the NX for like $249 - $299 then we can't expect PS4 Neo/XB1.5 level of performance. I'm sticking to around OG PS4 level hardware at best, but it will be in a smaller form factor and consume less power.

Sony contradicted the outsider research firm i.e. Sony's announcement beats IHS iSuppli's assertion.

http://www.extremetech.com/gaming/155521-playtation-4-sony-announces-the-ps4-wont-be-sold-at-loss

I agree. The profit definitely won't be huge. It will be something. Maybe a few bucks a console.

Not enough to post a positive operating profit, I'm afraid.

Nintendo's not losing money anymore.

Due to their handheld, which isn't selling so hot anymore. The 3DS sold well initially due to the 3D hype and from the momentum of the widely successful NDS. It's current daily sales are pitiful and it's looking to be their worst-selling handheld ever.

There's a big chance their next handheld will flop as badly as the Wii U and then they'll be making lots of losses.

Wii U isn't costing them money anymore either.

Proof?

You first.

You made the assertion that their home console is currently profitable. You go find the proof.

I only made a prediction about the future.

Damn, you got me. Nintendo's doomed.