How many consoles will be sold after 2015 holidays?

My guess is PS4 probably will be sitting between 25 to 30 million, Xbox One around 13 to 18 million and Wii U around 12 to 17 million. Those figures may seem a little high right now but I think a lot of late adopters will start upgrading to one of the new consoles and thereby driving up sales a good bit. It is also dependent on next year's holiday being a smash hit for PS4 and other consoles which I'm pretty confident that it will be.

Hmmm, good question:

By January 2016, this is what I foresee the install bases being:

PlayStation 4: 23 million
Xbox One: 15 million
Wii U: 13 million
Nintendo 3DS: 54 million
PlayStation Vita: 12 million

Aren't all the console owners late adopters already? This gen took its time to arrive.

Yeah I don't get the "late adopters" term. By that definition 95% of console sales in history are to late adopters.