The 360 Slim, more reliable than previous versions, has just been released. Kinect is currently the most hyped motion controller on the market. Xbox Live is making Microsoft boatloads of money. Multiplatform games still seem to favor the 360 over the PS3. It seems like the 360 has a lot of things going for it. So how can the 360 be in the worst position from a console war strategy perspective? This is mainnly due to how the 360's long-term advantages compare to the PS3's and the Wii's. When long-term advantages of each console are examined, the 360 becomes the most vulnerable. In particular, long term advantages of the 360 become weaker over time.
LONG TERM ADVANTAGES OF HOME CONSOLES
XBOX 360:
1) Xbox 360 has largest library of HD games. This advantage become weaker and weaker.In fact, from 2008 to the present, the PS3's library is actually better than the 360. Therefore, the PS3's better games are more technically impressive than the 360's. To play console games with the most impressive graphics, sounds, multiplayer size, you need to the PS3. Furthermore, the PS3 has arguably more variety of games--you are not likely to see games like Flower, LittleBigPlanet, Heavy Rain, or any of this generation's MMOs on the 360. Also, you can add more 3D games to the PS3's library.
2) Multiplatform console games tend to look/play better on the 360. This advantage has gotten weaker and will only get weaker over time. This is because developers are becoming more and proficient in working with the PS3's difficult hardware. In fact, some games like Dragonage and Final Fantasy 13 actually look/play better on the PS3. Furthermore, for the vast majority of multiplats, the differences are getting so insignificant that most reviews give the 360 and the PS3 versions the same score.
3) Xbox Live is still the best online service. While true, the advantage also becomes weaker over time. The hardcore gamers with enough money and desire to pay for LIVE's fees tend to have already bought the 360. Furthermore, PSN has improved to the point that it is more than good enough for multiplayer games. With PSN plus, the PS3 now competes with LIVE on 2 levels: the free service and the paid one. PSN completely overwhelms LIVE when it comes to the free service. However, LIVE is not much better than PSN for the paid service because PSN plus offers lots of free games and discounts and other features to match LIVE Gold's features.
Xbox Live also loses to PSN more and more to gamers who has the means to appreciate graphics, sounds, multiplayer size, and creativity (LittleBigPlanet/ModNation Racers).
It should be mentioned that LIVE will not be able to compete with PSN when it comes to motion-controlled multiplayer games. The only motion controller for the 360 is Kinect, which is laggy and imprecise. Inefficient control scheme will make competitive gaming over LIVE frustrating because gamers will have good reasons to blame the controller instead of themselves. Move, having less lag and being much more precise, will make it quite practical to have competetive multiplayer gaming over PSN. In fact, Killzone 2 and Socom 4 will be compatibe with Move.
4) Xbox 360 has more room for price reductions than the PS3. While true, this advantage also becomes weaker over time. Since the PS3 is now at a more reasonable price and since Sony has a strategy of producing exclusives after exclusives, gamers will continue to buy the PS3 no matter how cheap the 360 is. In other words, Sony is making the PS3's value independent of the 360's prices (If you look at the sales of the PS3 after the 360 Slim's release and price reductions of the older model, the PS3 still sells the same or better over all).
In time, as Blu-ray and 3D becomes more mainstream, a PS3 price cut will be more effective than the 360 price cut. A 360 price cut only gives you a cheaper console. A PS3 price cut gives you a cheaper console and a cheaper 3D blu-ray player.
Furthermore, as the 360 gets priced-reduced to around $150, LIVE fees will be perceived more and more as too expensive. You see, gamers and parents will think about the price of LIVE relative to the price of the console. The cheaper the console the more expensive LIVE appears.
5) Kinect is more hyped and is seen as more innovative than Move. This advantage too will dissipate over time. As we learn more and more about Kinect, we begin to see more and more flaws: Kinect is laggy, imprecise, and require lots of physical energy to play. It seems to have issues with sitting and lying down. As such, over time, it will become obvious that Kinect games will be mainly about dancing and exercise games, with a few pet simulations thrown in. As such, it will become clearer and clearer that Kinect games lack variety, which means Kinect games as a whole will become stale after a year or two. Think how music games on the home consoles are now selling less and less. The same will happen with Kinect games after a few years.
PS3
1) The PS3 has more advanced hardware than all other home consoles. This advantage only gets stronger over time. We are seeing it now: More graphics kings on the PS3. More HD (lossless) sounds. Less disk-swapping. Multiple games on one disk. More support for 3D games. Blu-ray movies. Soon...3D movies.
2) Sony has more first and 2nd party developers making exclusive games. This advantage gets stronger over time. As more and more exlusive games are made for the PS3, the PS3 console itself becomes a more and tempting option for Wii, 360, PC gamers looking to play unique games in HD graphics.
3) Move is the most versatile motion controller on the market. This advantage will get stronger over time. While it is hard to innovate games using Kinect (because Kinect is laggy, imprecise, tiresome), it will be easier to innovate Move games. Look at recent Move tech demos at IGN or Gametrailers and you will see why Move is easier to innovate.
4) The PS3 has the best free multiplayer gaming on the home consoles.This advantage also becomes stronger over time. As the price of the PS3 gets cheaper, more cost conscious gamers do not have to factor in the cost of multiplayer gaming. WIth PSN, unlike LIVE, the relative cost of online gaming to console price, as the console gets cheaper, is a non-issue.
WII
1) Wii has a lock on the casuals, especially little kids. Overtime, this advantage holds. Nintendo has large catalogue of casual games for adults and kids. With Wii still having more room for price cuts, it doesn't appear like Sony or Microsoft will take hold of the casuals and the kids this generation, until perhaps the PS3 gets to $149 price tag.
2) Wii has the only motion controller that is an integral part of the console. This advantage holds over time. Even though Move is a more versatile motion controller than the Wii, the Wii will continue to have by far the largest library of motion control games. This is because the controller is used for every game.
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